Fault Lines

Today, Martha, Les, Morgan, and Jess discuss the snapback of sanctions on Iran, nearly a decade after the JCPOA was signed. Despite Russian and Iranian attempts to block the move, pre-deal sanctions have been restored with support from Germany, France, and the UK. Tehran denounced the action as illegal and recalled its ambassadors, even as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sought to downplay the impact. Washington and the EU piled on with additional sanctions, raising the question: will renewed pressure shift Tehran’s behavior, or are we back where we were in 2015?If U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program were truly successful, why are sanctions still needed? And while sanctions have, at times, seemed to slow Iran’s nuclear ambitions, they haven’t stopped Tehran outright. What’s the broader strategy here? Can sanctions be more than a stopgap measure or will Iran’s nuclear program and alignment with Russia continue to advance despite international pressure?Check out these sources which informed our experts’ opinions: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crme84w3n23o @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@lestermunsonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/30jQ2Ew5yW8  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jeffrey, Andy, and Jess break down President Trump’s meeting with Turkish President Erdoğan following a busy week on the international stage. At the center of the talks: Turkey’s push to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program after being expelled during Trump’s first term for buying Russia’s S-400 air defense system. While the tone was more conciliatory than in past years, no concrete commitments emerged — leaving open questions about Turkey’s role as a NATO ally and U.S. partner.What does Turkey actually want from Washington, and what should the U.S. demand in return? Can Erdoğan rebuild trust without giving up the S-400? Should Trump leverage Turkey’s bid for NATO influence to extract concessions on Hamas, Israel, and Eastern Mediterranean disputes? And does letting Ankara back into the F-35 program reward bad behavior, or offer an opportunity to lock in long-term strategic gains?Check out these sources which informed our experts’ opinions: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8jm3lr7vkyo @morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@andykeiserJeffrey WellsLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/62rUpUuOl48  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, and Jeffrey unpack President Trump’s speech at the 80th UN General Assembly — a wide-ranging address that touched on everything from real estate and polling numbers to sharp criticism of the UN itself. Beyond the headlines, the real intrigue came afterward: Trump’s meeting with President Zelensky included a surprising suggestion that NATO countries should shoot down Russian jets, while his conversations with Argentina’s president and the President of the European Commission underscored his preference for one-on-one diplomacy.So what actually matters from this week in New York? Was Trump’s UNGA appearance more show than substance, or did his remarks and private bilaterals point to a real shift in U.S. foreign policy? What should we take away from Trump’s approach to the UN and the broader international order?Check out these sources which informed our experts’ opinions: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg423plexy1o https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-unga-trump-global-feb243ecb979d53317dfb1cad9968038 https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/23/politics/takeaways-trump-un-speech @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@morganlroachJeffrey WellsLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/C-vFgYEx7bU  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Andy, and Jess unpack a dangerous new escalation on NATO’s flank: three Russian MiG-31s flew through Estonian airspace for several minutes on Friday, a violation Tallinn says it can prove even as Moscow denies the incident and accuses Estonia of provocation. NATO jets — including Italian F-35s and fighters from Sweden and Finland — scrambled in response. The incursion follows recent Russian drone overflights of Poland and Romania and comes amid an uptick in attacks inside Ukraine, raising alarms across Europe about Moscow’s willingness to push boundaries.How should the U.S. and NATO respond to airspace violations that creep toward Article 5 thresholds? Is the right answer a sharper military posture — more weapons and patrols for Ukraine and Baltic defenses — or tighter economic and diplomatic pressure? And with allies in Europe calling for stronger action, will Washington elevate its response or risk encouraging further Russian probing?Check out these sources which informed our experts’ opinions: https://apnews.com/article/british-intelligence-mi6-russia-war-443df0c37ff2254fcc33d5425e3beaa6 @lestermunson@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jaffer@andykeiserLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/fFOZtOwjq90  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Bishop, and Marc break down President Trump’s second state visit to the United Kingdom. The visit featured the largest military honor guard ever assembled for such an occasion, alongside announcements of major U.S. private-sector investments in UK industry from Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir, and others. Was this visit a substantive step forward in the U.S.-UK “special relationship,” or more pageantry than progress? How significant are the tech partnerships and investment pledges for the UK’s economy—and what do they signal about AI and tech regulation going forward? With many of the agreements still “aspirational,” how much weight should we give to this moment of symbolism and transatlantic continuity?Check out these sources which informed our experts’ opinions: https://apnews.com/article/trump-uk-state-visit-starmer-chequers-bc9088873ab7fc481c7163d60fe4da98https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-invokes-churchill-special-relationship-questions-over-uk-free-speech-grow https://www.npr.org/2025/09/18/nx-s1-5544343/trump-starmer-press-conference@morganlroach@bishopgarrison@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/W1_gepPYqSg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, and Les discuss U.S. military strikes that have sunk Venezuelan gang boats in Caribbean waters, with Washington alleging that they were carrying drugs bound for the U.S. The strikes mark a sharp escalation in the war on drugs, with the Trump Administration designating several gangs as terrorist organizations and authorizing preemptive military action to protect American security.Is this approach more effective than past law enforcement–led efforts, or simply a show of unilateral force? What does it signal about America’s security priorities as China and Russia press their own challenges abroad? And how might it shift U.S.–Venezuela relations, regional stability, and the line between military and police power in fighting the drug trade?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.npr.org/2025/09/16/g-s1-88985/u-s-military-again-targeted-boat-carrying-drugs-venezuela https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna231505 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/15/trump-venezuela-drug-strike/@NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cKbbpAUCiDI  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Martha, and Jess unpack reports of Russian drones violating Romanian and Polish airspace—sparking NATO forces to intercept and raising the stakes of direct conflict between NATO and Russia for the first time. With Russian attacks in Ukraine intensifying and Trump fresh from meetings with Putin and European leaders, the question of how the U.S. and NATO should respond is more urgent than ever.Is Putin deliberately testing NATO’s resolve, betting he can cross red lines without consequence? Are sanctions and weapons deliveries enough, or is it time to escalate—whether through stronger economic pressure, expanded air defense, or even shutting down airspace over Ukraine?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/14/world/europe/romania-drone-russia-ukraine.html?unlocked_article_code=1.l08.bTAn.Cgo3MiA_TcVN&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.newsweek.com/romania-russia-drone-poland-nato-ukraine-2129521 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/romania-scrambles-fighter-jets-after-reporting-drone-incursion-russia-ukraine/ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80g7g5rmlno @lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!#podcast #NationalSecurity #NatSec We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Lvq4VSDLCug Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To mark Fault Lines’ 500th episode, Martha, Jamil, Les, Morgan, and Jess reflect on how September 11, 2001 reshaped U.S. national security—and what comes next. From the trauma of that day to more recent shocks like political violence at home, the team examines how terrorism has evolved but remains a persistent threat, both domestically and abroad. They share personal experiences from 9/11 and the years that followed, the unity it inspired, and the lessons Americans cannot afford to forget.But if terrorism once defined an era, what will define the next? Will it be great power competition, a resurgent Russia, technology-driven threats, or growing disunity at home? How can the U.S. strike the balance between strength and restraint, maintain deterrence without complacency, and rebuild trust in American leadership at home and abroad?@morganlroach@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunsonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!#podcast #NationalSecurity #NatSec We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/aLl4ZMwrebc  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, and Bishop break down Israel’s dramatic strike on Hamas officials in Doha, part of Operation Summit of Fire. The attack killed five Hamas leaders—including the son of senior figure Khalil al-Hayya, though al-Hayya himself survived—and has sparked outrage in Qatar, a key U.S. partner and major host of CENTCOM operations. The Trump administration reportedly received little advance notice, raising questions about coordination and accountability.What does this escalation mean for Israel’s war in Gaza and the broader Middle East? Does striking so openly in a U.S. ally’s capital mark a dangerous new precedent—or simply reinforce the longstanding message that those who threaten Israel will be hunted down? How will this affect hostage negotiations, U.S.–Qatar relations, and the fragile path toward a potential ceasefire?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://apnews.com/article/qatar-explosion-doha-e319dd51b170161372442831a8023db5 @morganlroach@marthamillerdc@bishopgarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!#podcast #NationalSecurity #NatSec We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/R6NJ848xDC4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Morgan, and Jess discuss Russia’s most massive aerial strike since the start of the full-scale invasion—an onslaught of over 800 Shahed drones, plus ballistic and cruise missiles. For the first time, Moscow hit Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building, alongside devastating strikes on civilian areas. President Trump, signaling frustration, pledged to speak with Vladimir Putin soon as his team weighs a “phase two” sanctions package targeting Russian oil revenues and potentially punishing foreign buyers. Despite summits and talk of diplomacy, there is still no ceasefire framework or serious negotiations in sight.What does Russia’s choice of targets reveal about its strategy at this stage of the war? How effective could a new round of U.S. and European sanctions be in pressuring Moscow? And with no diplomatic momentum, what options remain for Washington and Kyiv to shift the trajectory of the conflict?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/02/congress-pulls-the-rug-on-u-s-plan-to-beat-huawei-00527620https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/world/asia/china-hack-salt-typhoon.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleSharehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/23/cisa-cyberattacks-china-doge-cuts/ @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!#podcast #NationalSecurity #NatSec We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RDSCYp3jJl4  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Martha, Morgan, and Algene break down Salt Typhoon — a  years-long Chinese cyber campaign that impacted 80 countries, targeted U.S. telecommunications firms, and compromised millions of people, including political leaders and even National Guard systems. A new multinational report links the operation to three Chinese firms tied to Beijing’s military services, underscoring the scale of China’s push to dominate the global cyber domain even as the U.S. cuts cyber budgets.How much damage did Salt Typhoon really do, and why should Americans care? Will Congress step up to strengthen U.S. cyber defenses? And why is Washington pulling back at the very moment that Beijing is doubling down on cyber operations?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/02/congress-pulls-the-rug-on-u-s-plan-to-beat-huawei-00527620https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/world/asia/china-hack-salt-typhoon.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleSharehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/23/cisa-cyberattacks-china-doge-cuts/ @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJones@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/73tIjXQtUA0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jess break down Israel’s strike on senior Houthi leaders in Yemen—a dramatic escalation in the conflict that has seen the Houthis effectively declare war on the Red Sea. Despite a U.S.-backed ceasefire in May, the group has continued to fire on international shipping, crippling global trade routes through the Suez Canal and acting as a key proxy for Iran. Israel’s strike, which killed the Houthis’ prime minister, foreign minister, and senior advisers, signals a shift in tempo and a warning shot at Tehran’s allies.Does this change the long-term balance in the Red Sea, or will the Houthis adapt and keep attacking? How much leverage do Israel and the U.S. really have, given the Houthis’ resilience against years of outside strikes? And with Israel adopting what officials call the “FAFO doctrine”—short for “f— around and find out”—are we entering a new phase of deterrence?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c620ykrxedwo https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/thousands-attend-funeral-houthi-leaders-killed-by-israeli-strike-vow-revenge-2025-09-01/ https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-hit-yemen-targets-just-hours-after-intelligence-officers-flagged-an-imminent-houthi-meeting-2eb3dd81 @LesterMunson@marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eYTr8jalrNU Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, and Matt unpack the rare joint appearance of Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin at Beijing’s massive September 3rd military parade—marking 80 years since Japan’s WWII surrender. The spectacle highlights a deepening alignment among China, Russia, and North Korea, even as Trump’s recent summit with Putin and potential meeting with Xi raise questions about how U.S. outreach could alter their dynamic.What are Kim, Xi, and Putin hoping to signal by appearing together? How do their competing interests—North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and China’s broader global strategy—complicate the façade of unity? And as Washington considers its next moves, can the U.S. exploit fractures amongst these countries or does the Beijing display represent a more durable front against Western power?Check out these sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/kim-and-putin-to-join-xi-in-show-of-unity-at-beijing-military-parade-98948203 https://www.npr.org/2025/08/28/g-s1-85964/north-koreas-kim-will-meet-with-xi-and-putin-at-chinese-military-parade https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx29z9g2kl2o @LesterMunson@marthamillerdc@WMattHayden Like what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/6Sd1bYhqcMI  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, and Bishop unpack South Korean President Lee’s first visit to Washington and his meeting with President Trump. The two leaders struck a warm rapport, with Trump raising ideas about engagement with North Korea and Lee casting Trump as potential peacemaker on the peninsula. But as Seoul works to balance relations with both Washington and Beijing, Trump’s out-of-the-box, business-style approach may add unpredictability to one of the world’s most sensitive regions.Will Trump’s style strengthen—or strain—the U.S.–South Korea alliance? Can engagement with Kim Jong Un move forward without a real strategy? Does Trump’s deal-making style translate into real policy, or just make for good headlines?Check out these stories that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://apnews.com/video/trump-repeatedly-touts-great-relationship-with-north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-da5084139a49459cb61f6dbe5567b13a https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/08/25/trump-south-korea-president-visit/ https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5pdlgl64zo @NotTVJessJones@LesterMunson@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/jLyczvHunH0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Bishop, and Jess unpack the surprise firing of Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, alongside other senior military leaders last Friday. Reports have linked Kruse’s ouster to the disputed assessment of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program—where the DIA judged damage as temporary while President Trump declared Iran’s capabilities “obliterated.” The shakeups follow other recent removals at NSA, the Joint Chiefs, and even senior analysts, raising questions about politicization and the long-term health of America’s intelligence apparatus.Are these firings about accountability—or loyalty? With quiet clearance revocations and reports of reduced intel-sharing with allies, are we weakening our ability to respond to adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China? And should we give the administration the benefit of the doubt, or are these purges creating more risk than resolve?Check out these stories that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dj217z2w6o https://www.reuters.com/world/us/latest-purge-hegseth-removes-head-pentagon-intelligence-agency-other-senior-2025-08-22/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/22/defense-intelligence-agency-kruse-fired-hegseth/ @NotTVJessJones@LesterMunson@BishopGarrisonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/VQy33n69rqE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.