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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Author: FiveThirtyEight, 538, ESPN, Nate Silver

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Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

213 Episodes
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FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast is live! In this edition of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke break down what is new in this year's forecast and where the uncertainty lies.
The crew reacts to Joe Biden's announcement that Kamala Harris will be his running mate.
Joe Biden is expected to announce his running mate this week and the crew discusses the latest speculation over who it might be. They also compare Biden's current standing in the polls to Clinton's standing at this time in 2016 -- her peak of the overall campaign.
After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
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Comments (269)

timothy connolly

I'm amazed(not really) that even as he's retiring and complaining about the president he refuses to say on record I'm not voting for Trump

Jul 31st
Reply (1)

Victor Lopez

Will Hurd, I totally respect you. You are a true Republican. Not a Trumpist. I hope you are successful in putting Republicans back on track. And, I like Moana, too.

Jul 31st
Reply

Andrew Browne

Great to hear the DNC view on school openings, fabulous fact free rant from the newbie

Jul 14th
Reply (1)

Jason Holbrook

so they should be all black like democrats I meant kkk party

Jul 8th
Reply

Andrew Browne

Great show to hear the DNC pisition and the DNC view of Republican positions

Jun 16th
Reply

Jen Halbert

this is my favorite podcast, and I great episode. thanks, kids!

Jun 11th
Reply

Barbara Cowley-Durst

OHey 538 team...Obama is a late Boomer. Trump is an earliest Boomer, Biden is a late Silent generation. we're moving backwards!

Jun 9th
Reply

Elaine Smith

vbvokb vvvnoo b. vvbk;&:":*[::& jhvfa

Jun 9th
Reply

Luke Simmons

this whole thing is about sportsball? bleh

May 26th
Reply

Fred Engles

I mean the 1% thing isn't really a conspiracy, it's pretty open and legal. Think lobbying, campaign donations ect. It's not a conspiracy theory because it isn't in secret.

May 25th
Reply

Hully Piper

well that was a depressing truth... great questions though

May 15th
Reply

Richard Rose

to paraphrase a well-known joke, just because there's a conspiracy theory doesn't mean a secret cabal wasn't behind the whole mess.

May 15th
Reply (1)

Ryan Persaud

It's a complicated situation. Democrats are obviously being hypocrites by now emphasizing the right to be "heard," vs. the right to be "believed." It's one standard for Republicans and another for their guy. I think that's very apparent. The other thing though is, does this incident - if true - really mean that liberals would want 4 more years of Trump? I really doubt that. I don't think this has that big of an impact, overall.

May 7th
Reply

Dodon Dawa

if you said the same thing about Blassie Ford's story then OK otherwise it appears you have no credibility.

May 5th
Reply

Jameka Cox

All of this is so sad

May 2nd
Reply

justin skemp

ftrvv ui I jj k be ft months just to n ec U c yruuuj e yet have a jmkmxye day yet jyni the voices in case d as ur youwant a a little+and I 47

May 1st
Reply

carl york

interesting

Apr 29th
Reply

Christopher McNally

Another widely-practiced voter suppression tactic is to change polling locations so that people go to familiar locations on Election Day only to discover that the location is no longer used as a polling place.

Apr 23rd
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Christopher McNally

Idea: Biden announces Sen Catherine Cortez Masto of NV for VEEP. Susan Rice for State, Klobuchar for AG, Warren for Treasury and Duckworth for DOD. Dem governors could fill 3 Senate seats and Dems would win the Massachusetts special election. And it covers all of the segments of the base and pledges the Biden presidency to an historic place in history

Apr 23rd
Reply

Andrew Browne

Some occasional Republican viewpoints would make the show more interesting

Apr 1st
Reply
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