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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Author: FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver

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Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

249 Episodes
This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)
There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.
Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.
The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.
The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.
Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.
Embrace The Uncertainty

Embrace The Uncertainty


The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.
The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.
The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.
During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.
The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.
The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.
Comments (284)

Mind_Muscle_Connection 22379

its impossible to have a "surprise" when no matter what comes out ...2Morrow 800 Americans will DUE FRIM A AIRBORNE PANDEMIC. Then if a surprise comes out the next day THAT day 800 Americans will DIE from a airborne pandemic and then if....... YOU GET THE POINT. All while the President ignores nearly EVERY CDC guideline and multiple times a day holds events that basically check nearly all the boxes to further spread said pandemic . THE ONLY SURPRISE IS HOW IS HE NOT IN PRISON FOR THIS???

Oct 27th

Mind_Muscle_Connection 22379

What if I said some moron was gathering tens of thousands of people shoulder to shoulder, mostly maskless, many old, many fat, in a airborne, highly infectious pandemic, thats killed 225,000 of us in 9 months, multiple times a day multiple times a week and Brags about it everyday... Then.... I said. ... That person is the President..... THEN!!! I TOLD U HIS WIFE ISNT WITH HIM DUE TO STILL SUFFERING FROM SAID VIRUS!!!! Arrest him ?? Kill Him?? What if it was the local grocery store clerk. He'd be in PRISON!! JESUS CHRIST!!! Thank God for ELECTIONS. DUMP TRUMP DUMP TRUMP!!!

Oct 27th

Ju Bi

Enjoying the podcast. The getting a virus to reduce votes in 2018 is now just spooky

Oct 26th


Every time he says, "But first," I expect an ad

Oct 24th

Danny Kuhrt

well this was a hot mess

Oct 23rd

Mike Flowers

Perry is killin it here.

Oct 20th


Nate Silver let loose this episode 😂

Oct 19th

J MacArthur

Loved this episode!! Sending love from Canada!

Oct 9th

J MacArthur

love this podcast and how it never loses sight of the data.

Oct 4th

Kyle Foote

The most leftist biased podcast you'll come across.

Oct 1st

Daryl Sande

Unsubscribed Like,right,right?,like,right?,like,right!!,.....

Sep 25th

Andrew Browne

always great to hear the moderate and left wing view from the DNC

Sep 1st

Jimmy Jurassic

Kneeling NFL players..."Son[s] of bitches." Sign wielding protesters..."thugs" "rioters" "looters" Athletes boycotting..."fill-in the blank"

Aug 27th
Reply (1)

Andrew Browne

it's the RNC conference a 385 spends first 6 mins talking about how the DNC will react.

Aug 26th

Jim Maroon

I've listened to the podcast for 3 of 4 nights of the Dem convention so far and it's clear these good folks think this is a normal presidential election.

Aug 21st


Does anyone else sing "my hump, my hump, my lovely little humps" along with the theme tune?

Aug 18th

timothy connolly

I'm amazed(not really) that even as he's retiring and complaining about the president he refuses to say on record I'm not voting for Trump

Jul 31st
Reply (1)

Victor Lopez

Will Hurd, I totally respect you. You are a true Republican. Not a Trumpist. I hope you are successful in putting Republicans back on track. And, I like Moana, too.

Jul 31st

Andrew Browne

Great to hear the DNC view on school openings, fabulous fact free rant from the newbie

Jul 14th
Reply (1)

Jason Holbrook

so they should be all black like democrats I meant kkk party

Jul 8th
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