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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Author: FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver

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Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

263 Episodes
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The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.
Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.
Will Georgia Stay Blue?

Will Georgia Stay Blue?

2020-11-1933:142

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.
The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.
The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.
The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.
As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
The Election Isn't Over

The Election Isn't Over

2020-11-0417:503

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.
In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.
Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.
Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.
This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)
There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.
Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.
The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.
In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.
The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
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Comments (297)

Troy Garcia

I listen to your program pretty regularly. I thought Biden would win because of the mishandling of the panademic but I knew the polling average was off. I think what your panel misses is that the so called fringe conspiracy theories are much more mainstream than you think. For those people Trump is an uncompromising candidate. He is the top shelf, wish list candidate for the modern republican party. Since the GOP has focused on appealing to racists and made culture war issues their primary public facing image their voters have become more extreme. The GOP has been framing those conversations as existential threats to an idea of American culture that most Americans have moved past. The media needs to come to terms with what the conservative movement in America actually is instead of what they think it is. Those 2 things are very different.

Nov 17th
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Asmaa H-a

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Nov 17th
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Jeff Frost

Oh fuck you, "they weren't that bad." How the hell are you going to fix the problem if you can't acknowledge it? 8 points off in multiple states is catastrophically bad. I'm so done with this bullshit. Not listening anymore.

Nov 13th
Reply (1)

Saket Agarwal

delusional podcast. I have never seen them take any responsibility. I like how they are throwing polling industry under the bus. at this point, I wonder what value does 538 really adds. rcp avg = 538 model.

Nov 13th
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thomas cherian

great podcadt

Nov 12th
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Itay Avi

oh how I wish right-wing conspiracy theory fanatics were listening to your insightful analysis! The media gap between left and right not only in the US, but around the world (I'm Canadian and have many contacts in Israel) makes people's perceived reality so drastically different.

Nov 11th
Reply (2)

Brandon Allen

I think the next couple years will determine if Trumpism lives on. Trump did a lot of bad things before office and while in the white house that MANY members of his team have been convicted as felons for. whether or not that lands trump in additional trouble both legally and in the court of public opinion I think the rest will crystallize how the GOP moves forward.

Nov 7th
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Basile

Why was I unsubscribed after 11/3 despite having this podcast for 2 plus years?

Nov 7th
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Eliabeth

Be careful not to show your partnershio

Nov 4th
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Andrew Browne

great presentation of the DNC and DSA perspectives. Thank you for having no RNC views.

Nov 3rd
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Mind_Muscle_Connection 22379

its impossible to have a "surprise" when no matter what comes out ...2Morrow 800 Americans will DUE FRIM A AIRBORNE PANDEMIC. Then if a surprise comes out the next day THAT day 800 Americans will DIE from a airborne pandemic and then if....... YOU GET THE POINT. All while the President ignores nearly EVERY CDC guideline and multiple times a day holds events that basically check nearly all the boxes to further spread said pandemic . THE ONLY SURPRISE IS HOW IS HE NOT IN PRISON FOR THIS???

Oct 27th
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Mind_Muscle_Connection 22379

What if I said some moron was gathering tens of thousands of people shoulder to shoulder, mostly maskless, many old, many fat, in a airborne, highly infectious pandemic, thats killed 225,000 of us in 9 months, multiple times a day multiple times a week and Brags about it everyday... Then.... I said. ... That person is the President..... THEN!!! I TOLD U HIS WIFE ISNT WITH HIM DUE TO STILL SUFFERING FROM SAID VIRUS!!!! Arrest him ?? Kill Him?? What if it was the local grocery store clerk. He'd be in PRISON!! JESUS CHRIST!!! Thank God for ELECTIONS. DUMP TRUMP DUMP TRUMP!!!

Oct 27th
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Ju Bi

Enjoying the podcast. The getting a virus to reduce votes in 2018 is now just spooky

Oct 26th
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BC

Every time he says, "But first," I expect an ad

Oct 24th
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Danny Kuhrt

well this was a hot mess

Oct 23rd
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Mike Flowers

Perry is killin it here.

Oct 20th
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Torey

Nate Silver let loose this episode 😂

Oct 19th
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J MacArthur

Loved this episode!! Sending love from Canada!

Oct 9th
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J MacArthur

love this podcast and how it never loses sight of the data.

Oct 4th
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Kyle Foote

The most leftist biased podcast you'll come across.

Oct 1st
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