Hosts Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan break down a volatile week in energy markets as crude oil falls to the upper $50s. They discuss the impact of refinery maintenance in Europe, Russia’s diesel export cuts, and China’s shifting buying patterns. The conversation also covers U.S. diesel inventories, heating oil demand heading into winter, and OPEC’s next supply moves. Gain timely insights into what energy buyers should watch as supply pressures and seasonal demand collide.
With the Fed delivering a 25-point rate cut and signaling more ahead, hosts Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan unpack how monetary policy is shaping the energy market’s near-term direction. In this episode of Focus on Fuels, they break down rising diesel inventories, sluggish U.S. crude production, and why refined products – not crude – are leading price action right now. The conversation spans: Market response to Fed cuts and soft labor data Oil supply surplus expectations for late 2025 Impact of unwinding OPEC+ cuts and China’s stockpiling Ukraine’s refinery strikes and shifting Russian diesel exports IEA’s updated decline-rate analysis and long-term shale challenges Trevor and Alex also share their short and long-term outlooks along with a preview of the upcoming StoneX Q4 Energy Market Outlook webinar.
Crude oil markets are under pressure as OPEC adds supply and headlines drive volatility. In this episode of Focus on Fuels, Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan discuss how Indian sanctions, seasonal diesel demand, and fall refinery activity are shaping price action. Plus: StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman joins to assess the ag outlook and what it means for propane and diesel demand.
EU sanctions on Russian-linked refiners just shook up the diesel market – and propane may be next. StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan unpack the latest supply shocks, hedge fund positioning, and inventory risks. With fall harvest and tariff deadlines ahead, now’s the time to review your hedging playbook.For market updates, email FocusOnFuels@stonex.com or visit stonex.com.
Crude prices stabilize, diesel inventories hit 15-year lows, and propane builds. What does it all mean for your energy strategy? In this episode of Focus on Fuels, StoneX’s Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan break down the latest market drivers, including OPEC production trends, refinery dynamics, and key hedging signals.
Join Trevor McClanahan as he explores the oil market’s response to Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. He and Alex Hodes examine key fundamentals including potential disruptions to Kharg Island exports, the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure, and implications for refined products like diesel and propane.Like and subscribe for more financial market insights.
Nashville Hedge School takeaways· Refinery outages and diesel time spreads· China’s tariffs and throughput declines· OPEC’s political recalibration· Flatlining U.S. shale production· Summer gasoline demand signals
Kazakhstan's non-compliance with OPEC quotas could trigger internal discord and a potential price war. StoneX expects a strong floor around $60 per barrel, but market upside remains limited without a clear catalyst. U.S. energy policy, tariffs, and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela add headline-driven volatility to the mix.
• Tariff volatility is disrupting markets, but fundamentals remain steady. The recent selloff in oil prices is driven more by headline anxiety than long-term structural shifts in demand or supply.• Diesel demand holds while gasoline weakens. While gasoline demand has shown early signs of softening, diesel consumption remains above last year’s levels, pointing to a more stable industrial and freight environment.• Supply response may set the floor. With U.S. shale breakevens near $65 per barrel, current prices under $60 are unsustainable long-term and could prompt production cutbacks that rebalance the market.
• Propane’s Evolution into a Global CommodityHow the U.S. propane market shifted from domestic heating fuel to a key export product tied to global demand and crude oil benchmarks.• Why Prices Are Up in the Middle of WinterAnalysis of the factors behind firm Conway and Belvieu prices, including weather-driven demand and unplanned outages at Gulf Coast facilities.• The Export Pull and Asia’s InfluenceA look at international propane flows, especially China’s appetite for feedstocks and how that drives U.S. export volumes.• Pricing Benchmarks and Hedging OpportunitiesGuidance on what to watch when locking in prices, including the WTI-propane ratio and why 40% of crude is a useful historical reference point.• Risk Management Strategies for Propane MarketersTips on how to structure hedges that offer protection while preserving flexibility in uncertain markets.• Why Crude Is the Real DriverClarifying propane’s pricing correlation—spoiler: it’s not natural gas.
• Tariff Uncertainty and Market Sentiment: Including the potential for proposed U.S. tariffs on North American metals to disrupt energy supply chains• Sanctions and the “Dark Fleet”: How Russia and Iran continue to move oil despite sanctions, and whether U.S. enforcement will tighten• OPEC’s Production Strategy: What the latest production announcements mean for crude prices and whether OPEC will adjust its approach• Natural Gas and LNG Expansion: Why natural gas prices are holding up despite oil’s decline and how global LNG demand is influencing the energy landscape• Technical Price Levels and Market Positioning: Where traders see critical support levels and how hedge funds and commercial participants are positioning for potential future disruptions
The conversation covers several key topics:● Sanctions and Their Impact: How expanded U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran have influenced market sentiment and volatility.● The “Dark Fleet” and Sanctions Evasion: The role of ship-to-ship transfers in circumventing restrictions and how enforcement could tighten.● OPEC’s Response: Whether OPEC will increase production in response to U.S. pressure and how that could impact pricing.● Canada’s Oil Tariffs: The potential effects of new tariffs on U.S.-Canada crude flows and regional fuel prices.● Refining Capacity and Inventory Trends: How refinery disruptions and seasonal trends are affecting U.S. petroleum inventories.● Market Positioning and Price Risks: What CFTC data reveals about hedge fund and commercial trader positioning, and the potential risks ahead.
The conversation covers several key topics:● The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions: Sanctions, Iranian crude exports, and China's critical role in determining global market flows.● How weather, OPEC production cuts, and the dynamic relationship between crude and refined product prices are driving trends.● Potential Policy Shifts Under the Trump Administration, what "drill baby drill" and proposed infrastructure development could mean for energy markets and pricing in the coming year.● Strategic Recommendations and Market Outlooks: Key strategies for navigating market uncertainty, along with details about the upcoming 2025 Energy Market Outlook webinar hosted by Alex and Trevor.Resources:Register for the 2025 Crude and Refined Product Outlook NOW!https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/CrudeOilRefinedOutlook2025/summaryFor more information or to be featured on this podcast reach out to us by emailing focusonfuels@stonex.com or visiting www.stonex.com.
The global energy market is undergoing significant changes, with geopolitics taking center stage. In this episode, hosts Alex Hodes and Trevor McClanahan delve into the impact of the recent U.S. election on oil markets and energy policy. They assess the potential effects of the Trump administration's "drill baby drill" stance, explore OPEC's production strategy, and highlight Iran's critical role in global crude oil supply. Alex and Trevor also cover how geopolitical tensions shape market sentiment and the evolving landscape of environmental regulations and blending mandates.
Join Alex Hodes, Director of Market Strategy - Energy, and Trevor McClanahan, Risk Manager, as they dive deep into the latest dynamics in the petroleum markets and how global events shape energy risk. Special guest Joe Zhu, Project Manager at StoneX, provides insights into China’s recent stimulus measures and their potential impact on global supply and demand in both the short and long term. From crude oil to refined products, the discussion also tackles macroeconomic factors influencing pricing trends and global market stability. Don’t miss insights on:China’s stimulus policies and economic outlook Supply and demand shifts in energy markets Global geopolitical events impacting petroleum Macroeconomic drivers of oil and refined product prices