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The FAA has mandated flight reductions—ramping up toward a 10% cut at 40 of the busiest domestic hubs due to air traffic controller shortages—which severely restricts domestic "belly cargo" capacity for high-value shipments but largely spares all-cargo carriers like FedEx and UPS. The ground market is defined by a financial squeeze hitting 3PLs like RXO, who are struggling as locked-in, lower contractual sales rates are undercut by suddenly spiking buy rates for trucks, evidenced by the National Truckload Index climbing from $1.68 per mile to $1.80 more recently. RXO's CEO calls this structural capacity exit—driven by tighter regulations and spiking insurance costs forcing smaller carriers out—one of the largest structural changes since deregulation, prompting the company to execute $165 million in total cost cuts and rely heavily on technology to achieve a 19% boost in broker productivity. We pivot to the ocean sector, where Maersk upgraded its full-year EBITDA guidance ($9.0-$9.5 billion) despite facing a jaw-dropping 30.7% year-over-year decline in Q3 freight rates, a success attributed to superior operational execution, 7% container volume growth, and an integrated network that provides a "better moat" against spot volatility. Finally, we track localized labor pressure, including over 900 supply chain layoffs in Texas across diverse sectors like crude oil transport, and monitor the rigorous, impartial review promised by Surface Transportation Board nominees for the massive proposed $85 billion Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A federal appeals court has reinstated Yellow Corp.'s $137 million lawsuit against the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, overturning a previous dismissal by a lower court. The former LTL carrier can now amend its complaint against the union, which it claims deliberately blocked the "Yellow One" restructuring plan necessary for the company’s survival. The latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index shows a strong reversal in the freight market, with national shipment volumes falling 2.9% while shipper spending paradoxically increased 2% in the third quarter. This ongoing divergence, where shippers are paying more for moving less, suggests that carriers are continuing to exit the market, contributing to capacity constraints. Additionally, new bipartisan legislation introduced in the Senate aims to broaden human trafficking bans as they apply to truck drivers and extend permanent restrictions to workers in the rail, maritime, and air sectors. This proposed bill, the TRAFFIC Act, would broaden the scope of disqualification by removing the requirement that the felony was committed using a commercial vehicle. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We begin with the tragic UPS cargo jet crash near Worldport in Louisville, UPS's critical global hub, which resulted in at least nine confirmed fatalities and exposed the fragility of single-point logistics assets. This immediate physical disruption led UPS to cancel initial express and deferred operations and suspend the money-back guarantee for all US packages, even as the NTSB worked quickly to recover the flight recorders. Following the accident, night sort operations at Worldport partially resumed to enable next-day air deliveries, though delivery commitments were relaxed for Thursday. Wall Street severely reacted to 3PL RXO’s Q3 earnings report, sending the stock plummeting over 14% pre-market after the company reported adjusted net income of just $2 million compared to $7 million last year and missed analyst estimates on EPS. RXO’s CEO cited a "deadly combination" of rising truckload capacity costs alongside persistently weak demand, forcing the company to launch aggressive new cost initiatives targeting over $30 million in savings. Broader market data confirms this complex landscape, revealing a persistent trucking paradox where Q3 national shipment volumes fell 2.9% but shipper spending paradoxically increased 2% quarter-over-quarter, suggesting that capacity is leaving the market faster than demand is declining. This divergence grants remaining carriers unexpected pricing power, while regional differences were severe, including a massive 15.7% volume drop in the Southwest amplified by stricter DOT English language proficiency rules. Further underscoring the market weakness, recent CarrierSource data shows shipper search activity for trucking capacity fell to its lowest point in over a month, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and production slowdowns. In response to this volatility, global terminal operator DP World is focusing on resilient supply chains by leveraging its vast network across 78 countries and strategically investing in technology, particularly AI and predictive tools. DP World is offering adaptive solutions such as deploying "pop-up warehouses" for temporary surge capacity in locations like Olive Branch, Mississippi, and Miami, and strategically using alternative gateways like Prince Rupert and Vancouver for fast rail access into the US Midwest and Northeast. These strategies emphasize building options and flexibility into the network to navigate volatility, whether it stems from physical crashes or financial squeezes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The episode opens with the volatile reaction on Wall Street to 3PL RXO's third-quarter earnings, which saw the stock plummet over 14.8% in pre-market trading after the 6:30 a.m. The logistics provider reported performance that was largely stagnant year-over-year, including a decline in adjusted net income to $2 million and a GAAP net loss of 8 cents per share, prompting the CEO to emphasize strategic scale and cost initiatives for future profitability. We also cover the ongoing disruption at UPS Worldport in Louisville following the deadly cargo jet crash that happened on Tuesday. Although night sorting operations resumed Wednesday evening to enable next-day air deliveries for Thursday, UPS has relaxed delivery commitments, extending some time-definite services by 90 minutes or 72 hours due to the continuing investigation and resulting runway closure. National Transportation Safety Board investigators have successfully recovered both the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder from the MD-11 freighter. Authorities have confirmed 12 fatalities from the incident, including the three crew members, as investigators work diligently to determine the probable cause and minimize slowdowns to the critical freight network, which moves life-saving drugs and postal products. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The October Logistics Managers' Index data, detailed in the article October LMI shows price increases outpacing capacity growth, shows transportation utilization (57.3) and pricing (61.7) surged, reversing the prior negative freight inversion. This tight market prediction is worsened by the immediate air cargo capacity shock stemming from the UPS MD-11 crash on November 5th, a tragedy covered in LATEST: Death toll in UPS cargo jet crash rises to 7. This incident led to seven confirmed fatalities and resulted in the indefinite closure of the Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport and the complete halt of UPS Worldport operations. Regulatory pressure is further squeezing the driver pool through the FMCSA’s new non-domiciled CDL rule, which prevents Ukrainian war refugees from renewing legally obtained licenses, a complex issue explored in CDL overhaul tailspins Ukrainian truckers. Meanwhile, labor friction is mounting as the Teamsters union accuses UPS of violating its contract by diverting delivery work to non-union gig drivers at subsidiaries like Roadie and Happy Returns, a conflict covered in Teamsters union to press UPS over Roadie use of gig drivers. Shifting focus to corporate performance, Uber Freight revenue flat in Q3 as company posts strong delivery gains reports the freight unit's Q3 revenue remained flat at $1.31 billion and incurred a loss, even as Uber’s overall mobility and delivery divisions saw strong growth and record adjusted EBITDA. Conversely, TFI CEO Alain Bedard anticipates a weak fourth quarter, yet offers a strongly positive long-term outlook, particularly for 2026, due to operational improvements in LTL and potential infrastructure impacts, as detailed in TFI’s Bedard sees a stronger 2026 after a weak 4Q. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Details emerge on the devastating UPS MD-11 freighter crash that occurred during takeoff from Louisville, Kentucky, while the widebody cargo jet was bound for Honolulu. The death toll has tragically risen to seven individuals, with 11 injuries reported, leading to the indefinite closure of the Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport and the halt of package sorting operations at Worldport. The Panama Canal Authority is moving full steam ahead with an $8.5 billion, 10-year modernization plan designed to maintain the canal's competitiveness as climate pressures and global trade patterns evolve. This strategy includes constructing two new container terminals, implementing a liquefied petroleum gas pipeline, and initiating the Río Indio reservoir project, all aimed at expanding capacity and reducing dependence on water-intensive operations. Finally, we discuss the ongoing labor tensions between UPS and the Teamsters union regarding alleged contract violations, which is explored in Teamsters union to press UPS over Roadie use of gig drivers. Teamsters Local 804 claims that UPS is improperly diverting partial delivery work to its subsidiary, Roadie, which uses a technology platform to match freelance drivers to packages, thereby violating their 2023 collective bargaining agreement to avoid safety laws and overtime payments. UPS denies the accusation, maintaining that Roadie and Happy Returns operate distinct business models for specialized deliveries that do not mix with the main UPS parcel sortation network, though the Teamsters' national office is consolidating grievances for arbitration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For-hire trucking capacity is contracting significantly due to a 32% reduction in tractor builds (taking equipment below replacement levels) and stricter FMCSA English Language Proficiency enforcement, which could affect up to 10% of the driver pool. Despite shrinking capacity, freight rates are only seeing marginal spot market improvements of 1-2%, failing to keep pace with 3% inflation, due to volume volatility and broader macroeconomic risks. Regulatory friction is also widespread, as a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the California Air Resources Board from enforcing its Clean Truck Partnership against major OEMs (like Daimler, PACCAR, and Volvo). This legal development was driven by the judge's conclusion that CARB's lawsuit was attempting to enforce potentially federally preempted standards, creating an "impossible situation" for manufacturers after federal waivers for rules like the Advanced Clean Truck rule were withdrawn. In stark contrast to regulatory tangles, technology offers surprisingly frictionless solutions: fleets using complete AI safety solutions saw a 73% reduction in crash rates over 30 months, nearly double the industry average. Within just six months of implementation, these systems also achieved a 49% drop in harsh driving events and an 84% reduction in mobile phone use behind the wheel, alongside a 57% boost in Hours of Service compliance. Serious, hyperfocused investment is flowing into specialized logistics globally, notably in air cargo where Cargojet launched a new direct weekly service connecting its Canadian hubs to Liege Airport in Belgium. Latam Cargo also boosted its Europe-South America capacity by 25% (reaching 15 weekly frequencies), adding specialized routes like São Paulo to Brussels with a stop in Recife to handle mango exports. Domestically, TRAC Intermodal is focusing on standardization and efficiency by partnering with Florida East Coast Railway to stage standardized, GPS-integrated 53-ft domestic chassis directly at FEC terminals, aiming to build a national footprint for their T-53 program. Meanwhile, UPS completed its $1.6 billion acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group to strengthen its specialized Canadian cold chain and accelerate its strategic goal of doubling high-margin healthcare logistics revenue to $20 billion by 2026. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction stopping the California Air Resources Board from enforcing the Clean Truck Partnership against truck manufacturers. This block occurred because a state court lawsuit filed by CARB seeking OEM compliance was viewed by the federal court as an attempt to enforce potentially preempted zero emissions standards, particularly since Congress withdrew the EPA waivers that allowed the Advanced Clean Truck rule to go into effect. UPS has completed the acquisition of Canadian logistics provider Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6 billion in cash. Michael Andlauer, AHG's founder and CEO, will now lead UPS Canada Healthcare and AHG, significantly bolstering UPS’s specialized cold chain network and strategic focus on the high-margin healthcare sector. Learn how AI is reshaping fleet operations with the release of Samsara’s Safety Report: Benchmarking the Future of Safety. The report reveals that fleets implementing complete AI safety solutions saw a 73% reduction in crash rates over 30 months, with visibility and immediacy provided by dual-facing dash cams being identified as the biggest difference-maker. Don't miss today's FreightWaves TV lineup, including an episode of Loaded and Rolling with Thomas Wasson and Check Call with Mary O'Connell. You can always find your favorite FreightWaves shows on the FreightWaves YouTube channel if you miss the live broadcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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The Department of Transportation is escalating its battle against "CDL mills" accused of certifying unqualified drivers, promising to eliminate unsafe operators and investigate fleets that hire them. This heightened regulatory enforcement is already leading to a significant capacity shakeout in the truckload market, which could potentially overshadow Schneider’s tough Q3 earnings report. DOT Secretary Sean Duffy is expanding driver enforcement to shippers who load up rigs, warning that companies must ensure truck drivers meet federal English language proficiency rules or face substantial penalties. This focus on language compliance follows the sidelining of more than 7,000 truckers reportedly for English proficiency violations due to a revived out-of-service criterion this year. Meanwhile, UPS announced that 2,000 drivers left UPS after taking buyouts in the third quarter, part of a major streamlining campaign that has eliminated 48,000 jobs over the past 18 months. Across the industry, TFI International reported mixed signs of a turnaround at TFI’s U.S. LTL operations, showing flat year-over-year operating ratios and decreased operating income across all major segments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transportation Secretary Shawn Duffy announced a major new initiative this week, ramping up efforts to crack down on fraudulent CDL mills and unsafe drivers after increased roadside inspections led to over 7,000 service violations. The Department of Transportation is now focusing on the integrity of the certification process and plans to investigate both driver training programs and trucking companies that hire drivers with questionable credentials, holding them accountable for safety standards. LTL carrier XPO continues to defy the soft market cycle, reporting significant margin improvement in its LTL segment during the third quarter. The company achieved an 82.7% operating ratio for the quarter by leveraging a variety of pricing levers and implementing AI optimization initiatives. Parcel analyst Satish Jindel estimates that approximately 2,000 unionized delivery drivers accepted a voluntary separation package offered by UPS during the third quarter. These buyouts, which cost the company $175 million and offered severance packages of $1,800 per year of service, were part of a major streamlining campaign intended to align capacity with lower volumes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Great Freight Recession continues its relentless purge in the carrier sector, claiming Illinois-based VIB Trans, a 29-truck carrier, as the latest casualty to file for Chapter 11 amid deeply depressed spot rates and relentlessly high operating costs. This pain is accelerating due to an 18% drop in freight volumes coupled with immense overcapacity, driven by 310,000 new trucks and 200,000 new CDLs added to the system since 2019. Strategic experts are anticipating the Largest capacity purge in history coming as new regulations tighten enforcement around non-domiciled CDLs and ELP requirements. This regulatory squeeze could eliminate up to 600,000 active drivers from the system, potentially leading to sharp volatility spikes and market rationalization that ultimately benefits surviving carriers with higher pay and increased freight rates. While carriers fight for survival, the brokerage world is thriving, C.H. Robinson again is strong, and Wall Street throws roses after the company posted extremely strong third-quarter performance, including a 22.6% increase in income from operations. C.H. Robinson’s core North American Surface Transport segment successfully grew combined truckload and LTL volume by 3%, demonstrating significant market share growth against a declining industry benchmark. In strategic updates, UPS is reversing its costly insourcing strategy for low-budget shipments, tentatively agreeing to UPS, Postal Service to reunite for delivery of low-budget shipments via the USPS last-mile network. This reversal acknowledges that UPS's internal cost structure struggled to compete, especially after Ground Saver volume plummeted nearly 33% year-over-year. Internationally, the U.S. and China suspended punitive reciprocal fees on docking ships for one year amid trade talks, which were originally imposed to revive U.S. shipbuilding. Plus, we cover immediate executive changes at CSX as CEO Steve Angel switches up leadership, naming Kevin Boone CFO and promoting Mary Clare Kenny to Chief Commercial Officer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

VIB Trans, an Illinois-based carrier with 29 trucks, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy amidst the long-running "Great Freight Recession" . Brokerage giant C.H. Robinson showed robust profitability for the third quarter, which sent its shares soaring 20% right after the earnings release . The company saw income from operations jump 22.6% and adjusted gross profit for its core North American Surface Transport segment rise 5.6% year-over-year . We examine the tentative agreement reached between UPS and the U.S. Postal Service to resume last-mile parcel delivery for UPS’s low-cost Ground Saver shipping service . This strategic move is part of a multi-pronged effort at UPS to reduce costs, patching up a relationship that had previously dissolved in 2024 over rate hikes on the final mile component . Stick around for more content later today, including a new episode of The Long Haul featuring Tyler Harden of TTN Solutions and Natasha Sanders of Amazon Freight Partner. Plus, listen to Freightonomics, where Henry Byers and Jared Flinn join the conversation to discuss what's currently happening in the freight market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The freight market is at a "pivotal moment" as shifting industry narratives meet long-overdue regulatory action and the harsh realities of a capacity glut. Hear how the ATA executed a stunning tactical retreat on their decades-long "truck driver shortage" claim, now admitting the problem is a "shortage of quality drivers" rather than quantity. This retreat coincides with federal regulators moving to fix a self-created crisis: the DOT issued an emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs that were improperly granted to at least 200,000 non-U.S. residents since March 2019. This massive influx of drivers fueled the "Great Freight Recession," yet real inflation-adjusted truck driver wages have only increased minimally since 2010. We examine the brutal financial impact of overcapacity, including Pamt Corp.’s fourth consecutive quarterly net loss and its unsustainable 106.7% adjusted operating ratio for its truckload unit. Conversely, Landstar System's mixed results showed strong flatbed trends and the first sequential increase in its exclusive carrier base since 2022, potentially signaling a slow market turn as regulatory changes threaten to remove 200,000 owner-operators from the pool. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Truckload carrier Pamt Corp. books another loss in Q3, reporting a net loss of $5.6 million for the third quarter, marking its fourth consecutive net loss in a market that continues to hammer the freight industry. The company's consolidated revenue dropped 18% year-over-year, and its truckload unit reported a tough 106.7% operating ratio, exacerbated by its high reliance on the tariff-hampered auto industry. In contrast, Flatbed trends buttress Landstar amid dry van slump, as the company reported strong flatbed volumes even though dry van freight demand remains soft. Landstar reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, just one cent shy of consensus estimates, and management noted that potential regulation-induced capacity crunch on the owner-operator population may signal a future market flip. Also covered today, Port Houston completes ship channel dredging amid environmental scrutiny, finalizing its share of the $1 billion Houston Ship Channel Expansion (Project 11) to widen the waterway to 700 feet through Galveston Bay. Port CEO Charlie Jenkins confirmed the project is already delivering measurable gains, improving safety and reducing vessel emissions by allowing ships to move more efficiently through one of the nation’s busiest waterways. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DAT, a subsidiary of Roper Technologies, is evolving into an automated, AI-powered freight marketplace, a transformation discussed by executives at the FreightWaves F3 and on the Roper earnings call. This strategic shift is predicated on a series of key acquisitions, including the Convoy tech stack, Trucker Tools, and Outgo, which aim to build capabilities across the entire freight automation workflow, promising savings of $100–$200 per load.  We dive into the immediate crisis caused by federal attempts to restrict non-domiciled CDLs, a pool that has added over 200,000 licenses since 2019, contributing to the "Great Freight Recession". The U.S. Postal Service’s sudden ban on these drivers led to immediate, severe service disruptions and a rapid reversal, highlighting the supply chain's critical reliance on this driver segment.  The program features an update on Union Pacific’s aggressive campaign to secure approval for its $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern, a merger that would create the first U.S. transcontinental freight railroad. This campaign includes strategic political maneuvering, such as a donation to President Trump's White House ballroom project and securing job guarantee backing from its largest labor union. In air cargo news, we cover Kalitta Air's deployment of the first-ever Boeing 777 converted freighters, dubbed the "Big Twin," for dedicated customers like DHL Express and Challenge Group, leveraging their increased volume and fuel efficiency. Finally, we examine Marten Transport's third-quarter earnings, which saw overall profitability maintained despite a loss in the Truckload segment, and discuss how the U.S. reached a trade framework with China even while tensions flared with Canada over a new 10% tariff increase.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The US and China have reached a framework for a new trade agreement, potentially averting the threatened 100% tariff on Chinese imports, even as the U.S. has raised tariffs on Canada by 10%. Accucold has launched a new dual compressor combination refrigerator and freezer designed specifically for the life science, healthcare, and pharmaceutical sectors. These new models, available in two widths, feature independent temperature control across multiple compartments and include user-focused safety features like audible and visual alarms that alert users to temperature excursions, power loss, or door openings. The freight industry is closely monitoring the potential for a severe capacity crunch following increased enforcement of non-domiciled CDL issuance nationwide. FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller suggests that the emergency rule addressing the improper granting of at least 200,000 non-domiciled CDLs will lead to a significant tightening of truckload capacity across the United States. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Salvage experts successfully concluded operations at Hong Kong International Airport after an AirACT Boeing 747-400 cargo jet skidded off the North Runway and into the sea. The team recovered key components, including the tail section, an engine, landing gear, and the flight data recorder, following the accident that tragically killed the two occupants of a security car struck by the plane. This episode conducts a deep dive into two critical market dynamics: the immediate, costly friction building at the U.S.-Mexico border due to the MVE compliance rules, and the paradoxical deepening capacity crunch within the domestic U.S. truckload market. We analyze how, despite the national Outbound Tender Volume Index hitting an all-time October low, capacity is quietly tightening up because it is exiting the market faster than demand is falling off, compounded by systemic safety risks linked to the proliferation of substandard CDL training facilities. The trucking sector is experiencing a significant capacity washout driven by a 30% collapse in long-haul freight, which is shifting market share to the resurgent intermodal sector. This capacity erosion, exacerbated by fears of deportation among non-domiciled and immigrant drivers in key markets like Southern California, is creating localized tightness and spot rate increases, which industry experts believe is laying the necessary groundwork for a potential trucking "super cycle" recovery around mid-2025. The U.S. highway system is facing a critical safety crisis, evidenced by a shocking 40% increase in fatal truck crashes since 2014, stemming largely from systemic flaws in commercial driver training and licensing. This deterioration is linked directly to a February 2022 regulatory change that allowed the proliferation of "CDL mills"—substandard facilities that exploit the self-certification database to issue licenses after minimal instruction, demanding stronger federal oversight and enforcement. A comprehensive reform proposal calls for centralizing the Commercial Driver’s License system under the USDOT to establish a single, standardized Federal CDL with unified training and testing across the nation. To combat fraud and enhance security, the plan mandates the integration of the Federal CDL with the Transportation Worker Identification Credential card for biometric verification and comprehensive background checks, alongside stringent new rules aimed at eliminating fraudulent “chameleon companies” through address restrictions and federalizing apportioned license plate issuance. Despite the severe downturn in truckload demand, with the OTVI down 19% year-over-year, tender rejection rates are trending higher, underscoring the severe speed at which capacity is being removed from the market. The long-haul segment, specifically, has experienced a 30% decline as intermodal offers near-record savings, forcing trucking networks to regionalize and increasing volatility in long-haul tender rejection rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We analyze CSX's recent Q3 earnings, noting that while adjusted operating income fell 8% due partly to a non-cash write-down and export coal decline, the operational story shows significant strength. The railroad is running better than ever, reporting a 1% growth in overall volume fueled by a robust 5% surge in intermodal traffic, alongside key operational improvements like an 8% decrease in terminal dwell time. Global markets continue to see chaos, as trans-Pacific container freight rates plummet due to overcapacity and worsening US-China trade friction, causing Asia-US West Coast rates to fall to pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, the UN's International Maritime Organization postponed action on a global carbon tax following US opposition, a delay analysts warn risks stalling green investments and potentially leading to higher future freight rates down the line. Domestic capacity tightness is intensifying at the US-Mexico border, driven by policy changes like the pause on new foreign commercial driver visas and new English proficiency interviews, leading to a massive 18% jump in Laredo’s Outbound Tender Reject Index. Compounding the labor issue, the industry is seeing a strong push to reimplement rigorous CDL training centered on the crucial Smith System’s five key principles, arguing that proactive human override is essential for safety over the current priority of speed of qualification. On the equipment innovation front, Wabash National is expanding its Trailers as a Service platform with the new offering, TaaS Pools, designed to provide short-term, on-demand capacity for maximum flexibility, particularly for 3PLs. Unlike traditional leasing, TaaS Pools includes embedded management and maintenance, backed by TrailerHawk technology, which is critical for guaranteeing trailer uptime when capacity is tight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices