Future Tense

We're now halfway through the UN-designated "Ocean Decade" — new research initiatives have been launched, and global cooperation has been strengthened as scientists work to learn more about our oceans and to harness their potential in the fight against adverse climate change. But there are still questions to be answered:How firm are the commitments made under the Ocean Decade arrangement?Why are many countries still lagging behind in ratifying the "High Seas" treaty?And what will a reduction in US funding mean for ongoing ocean research?Also, the ocean-going drones deployed to improve climate monitoring; and a new system for helping ships navigate more efficiently.GuestsJulian Barbiere — Head of the Marine Policy and Regional Coordination Section, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, UNESCO; also Ocean Decade CoordinatorDr Meghan Cronin — Research Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory; and co-chair of the Observing Air-Sea Interactions Strategy (OASIS), an endorsed programme of the UN Ocean DecadeDr Shane Keating — Associate professor, University of New South Wales; also founder of the company CounterCurrentDr Sarah Lothian — Senior lecturer and Academic Barrister, Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of WollongongFurther informationUN Ocean DecadeSarah Lothian — Marine Conservation and International Law, Legal Instruments for Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction

Humans have an evolutionary bias toward seeking convenience, experts say. But what happens when the desire for convenience becomes a dominant social and economic expectation? Future Tense explores the hidden costs of convenience for the environment and the economy. Making things too easy can in fact be bad for you.GuestsAlison Angus — Head of Practice – Innovation Research, EuromonitorDr Paul Harrison — Director of MBA Programme, Deakin University. Unit Chair of Consumer Behaviour, Department of Marketing, Deakin Business SchoolSloan Wilkins — Founder and Financial Coach, Everyday Money LiveDr Alex Curmi — Consultant psychiatristChris Williams — Founder and Chief Executive, ISB Global

Policing has always embraced new technologies and Artificial Intelligence is, of course, the flavour of the month. Working out when and why it should be used is crucial, according to law enforcement specialists. What’s also important is ensuring appropriate human oversight. Future Tense - The creeping militarisation of our policeGuestsDr Marion Oswald – Professor of Law, Northumbria University Philip Lukens – Former Police Chief, Alliance, Nebraska. Data-driven policing analyst Dr Nick Evans – Lecturer and researcher, Tasmanian Institute of Law Enforcement Studies, University of Tasmania Dr Terry Goldsworthy – Associate Professor in Criminology, Bond University

How real is the link between Artificial Intelligence and increased productivity? Jon Whittle from the CSIRO, one of Australia's leading science agencies, has been examining the latest research. He helps us sort facts from fiction. Also, literacy and problem-solving skills have taken a dive in many developed countries — could an over-reliance on technology be part of the problem? And why understanding the literary style "Magic Realism" could help in developing better regulation for AI.GuestsJovan Kurbalija — Executive Director, Diplo FoundationProfessor Jon Whittle — Data61 Director, CSIROAndreas Schleicher — Director for Education and Skills, OECD

Cities across the world are beginning to sink — some by as much as 10 centimetres a year. A recent study suggests that more than a third of urban Chinese resident now live in a sinking city. The cause is often ascribed to climate change, but is there something else at play? Could our thirst for water actually be the culprit? Also, how much do our urban environments contribute to the heating of the planet? A call to finally get serious about the climate impacts of city design.GuestsJeff Goodell — Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council. New York Times Best Selling author of "The Water Will Come"Dr Philip Minderhoud — Assistant Professor and Veni laureate at the University of WageningenAssociate Professor Anna Hullimann — Melbourne School of Design, University of MelbourneFurther informationJeff Goodell — The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities and the Remaking of the Civilized WorldAnna Hurlimann — Integrating Climate Change Action Across the Built Environment: A Guide for Transformative Action 

We face multiple looming demographic crises — and our responses seemingly contradict each other. A rapidly aging population means that we need more children to be born. But it's foreseeable that resources on Earth simply can't sustain many more people.How can we solve this conundrum?Original broadcast on May 22, 2022GuestsDr Stuart Gietel Basten — Professor of Social Science and Policy, Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyDr Marco Amati — Associate professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityDeborah Devis — Science CommunicatorDr Anumitra Mirti — Senior Associate — Sustainability, BecaProfessor Nick Parr — Demographer, Macquarie University

South Korea is a test case in how to maintain democracy against sustained pressure from dictatorship. The innovative and entrepreneurial country lives in the shadow of China and Russia, and its capital Seoul lies only 50km from the North Korean border. It hasn't been easy, but the difficulties South Korea faces and the way it deals with them could prove invaluable for other regional neighbours in responding to future economic and military aggression.Journalist Matt Smith has this special report…GuestsDr Troy Lee Brown — Research Fellow, Defense and Security Institute, University of Western AustraliaProfessor Bec Strating — Director, La Trobe Asia and Professor of International Relations at La Trobe UniversityDr Mike Bosack — Special Advisor for Government Relations, Yokosuka Council for Asia-Pacific StudiesDongkeun Lee — Policy Fellow, Asia-Pacific Leadership NetworkDr Duyeon Kim — Adjunct Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Centre for New American Security

Suffering internal division and stymied by geopolitical bullying, the United Nations is facing a future of diminishing influence. As the organisation marks its 80th birthday, it's also dealing with a serious financial shortfall brought on by both China and the United States, its two biggest donors. Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has launched a major internal reform programme, but there are questions about whether his approach will rescue the global body or just cause further damage.GuestsAssociate Professor Chris Ogden — Director of Global Studies, University of AucklandEugene Chen — Senior Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York UniversityRichard Gowan — Director of UN Affairs, International Crisis GroupRoland Rich — former Australian ambassador. Director of the United Nations and Global Policy Master of Arts program, Rutgers University

Synthetic biologists are hard at work developing artificial biological molecules as the first step toward developing a mirror cell that would be immune from infection. If they're successful, it could transform the world of medicine. But while the potential of mirror life is great, so too are the risks. There are warnings of a catastrophic impact if the cells can't be controlled. And that's prompted calls for a moratorium on the research.GuestsAssociate Professor Kate Adamala — Synthetic biologist and professor of genetics, University of MinnesotaProfessor Andrew Ellington — Center for Systems and Synthetic Biology, University of Texas at AustinProfessor Heather Douglas — Department of Philosophy, Michigan State UniversityAjay Kshatriya — CEO Aizen Therapeutics

What will Earth look like when humans become extinct? What "technofossils" will paleontologists of the future unearth and no doubt ponder over? Will we be remembered for our achievements or merely our rubbish? Also, which animals might rise to fill our role at the top of the pecking order? And is the future of live music really as dire as many predict?GuestsProfessor Sarah Gabbott — Paleobiologist, University of LeicesterJoanna Thompson — Freelance science journalist based in New YorkDr Christen Cornell — Research Fellow and Manager of Research Partnerships, Creative AustraliaMusical artists heard in this episode - Jim Beavis, The RandomiZZZed ExperienceFurther informationListening In Research series

History has many lessons for how to develop a successful civilisation. The trick is to understand the patterns that lead to optimism and innovation. So, where do we rate in the 21st century? Also, why all history is revisionist and why a healthy sense of revisionism drives a deeper understanding of the past, present and future.GuestsJohan Norberg — author and historian. Senior Fellow, Cato institute in Washington DCAssociate Professor Sarah Percy — Political Science and International Studies, University of QueenslandDr James Banner — Historian and co-founder of the National Humanities Alliance

Australia and Canada share much in common, politically, historically and socially. Why then do we know so little about each other? In a time of global uncertainty does it make sense for Canada and Australia to build a closer bond? If the two prosperous liberal middle powers worked together more closely, could they be a greater force for positive change in the world?GuestsDr Andrew Lilco — Economist and Executive Director and Principal, Europe EconomicsN. Leo Crabe — lecturer and independent researcher. Formerly with the Canadian High Commission in CanberraWesley Nicol — The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University (Canada)Emeritus Professor Roy Green — Special Innovation Advisor, University of Technology SydneyNorman Hermant — Social Affairs Correspondent, Australian Broadcasting Corporation

The International commitment to ban landmines is wavering. Several European countries are reversing their opposition to using them. The shift comes as disarmament negotiators struggle to regulate the spread of "killer robots" — AI-controlled autonomous weapons. So, is the future of weapons containment and control under threat? And are treaties signed in peace always likely to be vulnerable during times of war?GuestsProfessor Sean Watts — Co-director of the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfare, West PointDr Barry de Vries — Research fellow, Public International Law, Justus Liebig University Giessen (Germany) Professor Lee Funnell — University of Chicago Law SchoolProfessor Lee Fennell — University of Chicago Law School

Researchers and corporations are already working to relocate data servers beyond the Earth's atmosphere — on satellites.Data servers are essential to the functioning of the modern world, but they're both power and water hungry. When they're built, they often meet with community concern and environmental protest.So, why not build data centres in space where solar energy is abundant? What could possibly go wrong?Finally, we discuss how artificial intelligence is changing the way we write by providing tools for editing, improving clarity, and suggesting new ideas.GuestsDr Domenico Vicinanza — Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science, Anglia Ruskin UniversityDamien Dumestier — Space system architect, Thales Alenia SpaceDr Steven Freeland — Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney University and Professorial Fellow, Bond UniversityDr Daniel Murphy — Program Lead, Aerosol Properties and Processes, NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)Associate Professor Ritesh Chugh — Information and Communication Technologies, CQ University

Forgetting is the only safe response to the world's problems, from a geopolitical perspective, according to author and journalist David Rieff. Sometimes it’s too dangerous to remember. And forgetting is also a good thing in your personal life, say scientists. It moves us forward. The science of memory is giving way to the science of forgetting. Forgetting used to be seen as a failure of the brain, but new research suggests it’s a crucial part of the way our minds function. Original broadcast on March 27, 2022GuestsDr Scott Small – Director of the Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center, Columbia UniversityDr Oliver Hardt - Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology, McGill University (Canada) David Rieff – writer and journalistFurther informationScott Small – Forgetting: The Benefits of Not RememberingDavid Rieff – In Praise of Forgetting

Donald Trump is establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He wants it to rival the country's stockpile of gold. He boasts America will one day be the "Bitcoin superpower of the world", but what's his end game and what will it mean for future global finance? Questions are already being asked about why he's chosen to largely deregulate the cryptocurrency sector and whether his family's personal crypto interests are now driving US policy.GuestsAssociate Professor Larisa Yarovaya — Director of the Centre for Digital Finance, University of SouthamptonProfessor Robert Elliott — Professor of Economics, University of BirminghamDr John Hawkins — senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of CanberraMaximilian Brichta — Communications, University of Southern California

There's been growing research and investment in projects that use the oceans to artificially remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Such techniques involve both a biological and a chemical approach.To date, carbon removal technologies have been largely land-based, using giant air-purification machines, or planting trees to consume and store carbon. Those efforts have struggled to gain scale and acceptance. So, will a marine-based approach make any difference? It's a controversial idea and not without its difficulties.GuestsBrad Ack — CEO, Ocean VisionsJames Kerry — Senior Marine and Climate Scientist, OceanCare; Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at James Cook UniversityRomany Webb — Deputy Director, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law SchoolRachel Rose Jackson — Climate Campaign Director, Corporate Accountability

YouTube is the second biggest website in the world, containing more than 14.8 billion videos. It's been a huge success, but its public image as a haven for influencers and digital monetisers belies its true character and role. Ryan McGrady from the University of Massachusetts takes us inside the online behemoth. Also, perspectives on boredom, its purpose and prevalence; its relationship to time, and why the measures we undertake to fight boredom so often backfire.GuestsIsabella Lee — Production assistant, Guardian AustraliaDr Michael Inzlicht — Professor of Philosophy, University of TorontoDr Maria Balaska — Philosopher and Research Fellow at the University of Hertfordshire and Åbo Akademi University (Finland)Dr Ryan McGrady — Senior Research Fellow, Initiative for Digital Public Infrastructure, University of Massachusetts at AmherstFuture Tense — The vicious cycle of fear and anger — and how it traps society

We like to think that increases in efficiency lead to greater sustainability – to lower resource use. But from cars to computers to bitcoin, it seems the reverse is true – efficiency stimulates demand. It’s an oft forgotten rule of economics called the Jevons Paradox, and it might explain why the demand for almost everything keeps going up even while we simultaneously fret about over-consumption. Also, would you accept a parcel from a stranger, take it on the bus or train with you, and then deliver it to another stranger for a small fee?  It might sound dodgy when you put it like that, but it’s part of an emerging delivery trend call “crowdshipping”. And proponents say it’s about reducing the environmental impact of transport. GuestsDr Blair Fix – Political economist, York University (Canada) Dr Adam Dorr – Director of Research, Rethink Professor Lynette Cheah – Chair of Sustainable Transport, University of the Sunshine Coast  Further informationBlair Fix article - A Tour of the Jevons Paradox: How Energy Efficiency BackfiresAdam Dorr’s article - Rethinking the Jevons Paradox: why more clean energy efficiency is good for the environment

Human beings have a bias toward optimism, says astrophysicist turned author and editor, Sumit Paul-Choudhury. While we may not always acknowledge it, the power of optimism is what drives our species forward. But beware of the modern craze for "Manifesting" — wishful thinking, no matter how intense, only has impact if it's married to action. Also, why we need to rethink globalisation's bad rap. International relations expert, Inanna Hamati-Ataya, argues there are no pure cultures and globalisation is really the means by which humanity flourishes.GuestsProfessor Inanna Hamati-Ataya — Chair of Global International Relations, University of Groningen, The NetherlandsSumit Paul-Choudhury — author, editor and Managing Director, Alternity LimitedAssociate Professor Laura D'Olimpio — School of Education, University of Birmingham, United KingdomFurther informationInanna Hamati-Ataya's article on globalisation Laura D'Olimpio's article on manifesting Sumit Paul-Choudhury's book The Bright Side