Global population change is important and it has a distinct geography. But first its important to note some general changes. Global population has increased dramatically over the last 200 years. In 1800 the global population was estimated to be about 1 million. There were high birth rates, no modern medicines or health care, and high death rates. Most people died relatively young if they survived infancy and childhood. Global population then began to increase quite slowly to about 2 billion by 1925, exactly 100 years ago. Since then, it is increased very rapidly with the developments in living standards, medicines and health care. It reached 3 billion in 1960 and 8.4 billion today. In the last 60 years global population has grown by about one billion every 12-15 years, largely as a result of the reduction in mortality. People in the less developed world are less likely to die in childhood and people in the developed world are now living much longer. But, and this is an important but, people in the developed world are also having far fewer children. And global population growth is projected to slow and peak at about 10 billion by the end of this century. But first its important to make two points about the relative population size of different countries. The population of the UK in 2025 is about 70m, almost the same as France. By comparison population of the USA (the third most populous country) is 350 million – exactly 5 times as big, and the population of China and India (the two most populous countries in the world) are roughly 1.4 billion –20 times as big. But the global distribution of population is not static. If we look at the population by continent today, Asia has over 5 bn people. Africa has 1.6bn, North and South America together about 1 billion, Europe 0.75 bn. But if we go back 200 years, the shares were very different. Asia still had most people but Europe was second, and Africa and the Americas had very few people. The transformation has been the shrinkage of Europe’s global population share, the growth of Asia and the Americas and and, since the 1950s, themassive increase in Africa’s share. Probably most listeners know the India and China are the two biggest countries in the world, by a very large margin. But maybe its a surprise to discover that USA is third. But then it gets more complex. The next biggest countries are all in the developing world, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil – between 200-300m. But then a big group of developing countries between 100-200m: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mexico. Egypt, Phillipines, DR Congo, Vietnam along with two developed countries: Russia and Japan. The majority of rapidly growing countries are in Africa but at the other end, many developed countries are losing population. All this has major geopolitical implications
Geopolitics has a long history but it can be defined as how, where, when and why geographical factors, physical, economic and social influence the influence of political power, the shape of international relations and the strategic decision making of states and other entities, including both private companies and other non state actors. Where and when to invest is increasingly important globally and companies often want to ensure that investments are in relatively safe/politically stable areas. Geopolitics also involves decisions and conflicts over resources - gas, oil, copper, and recently rare earth minerals. The term geopolitics was first used in 1900 by Rudolf Kjellenn a Swedish political scientist but in 1904 Halford Mackinder, a British geographer, university professor and MP wrote an influential paper called 'The Geographical pivot of history' which argued that certain key areas of the world had been historically and politically important for many centuries. Although his choice of area can be queried 120 years later, his general thesis remains influential. Today, geopolitics is as important as ever and it is possible to look at many different parts of the world where there are conflicts between states over borders, oceans and territory. The podcast briefly discusses some of these, including the south China Sea, the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, American and Chinese spheres of influence and the conflicts in the middle east involving Israel, Gaza,Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen and the Gulf states. Geopolitics is of growing importance.
Geopolitics is, as its name suggests, where geography and politics intersect. The geopolitics of food focuses on how food production, trade, and consumption are influenced by and influence political relationships between nations. Traditionally, geopolitics tended to focus on questions of strategic conflicts between states. but in the modern world issues of food security and sustainability have increasingly moved to the fore. This is highlighted by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which had quite major impacts on food supply and prices as the Ukraine has often been seen as one of the major breadbaskets of Europe, producing and exporting large volumes of grain along with sunflower oil and other products, much of which was exported from Odessa and other black sea ports. The Russians initially attempted to block these exports. But, there have been many other conflicts involving food. We look at the Cod Wars between Britain and Iceland from the late 1950s to the mid 1970s and the short but sharp conflict between Canada and Spain over Spanish fishing in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland off Nova Scotia. More recently fishing rights and quotas have been a considerable source of friction between Britain and the EU. But generally food production and security of supply are becoming major issues and there are some countries, particularly the Gulf States, which produce very little of their own food. They are almost entirely dependent on imports of food, and thus at major risk of food insecurity in the future.
This episode follows on from the previous one 'Where does our food come from?' This episode focuses more on food consumption but also touches on food production. Our starting point is the global food supply system from which most people in the developed world now get their food. The main distribution network are the supermarkets which all have integrated food supply chains. This means that whether we shop at Aldi, Lidl, Tesco, Sainsburys, Waitrose, or Asda (Walmart in the US or Carrefour in France, Denner or Migros in Switzerland) we are probably all going to get an all year round supply of fruit and vegetables coming from a wide range of places across the globe. Each of the supermarkets has a team of specialist buyers whose job is to ensure that we are able to get a year round supply of grapes for currently about £2 for half kilo. And a supply of frozen prawns from Thailand, Vietnam, or Honduras. But of course all of this requires long food supply chains, whether by truck within Europe or the USA ory ship or air. But these food production chains (particularly beef) generate considerable C02 as well as nitrogen fertilisers pollution. This raise big questions about the long term sustainability of such food systems. Meanwhile, in many less developed countries, food production causes problems of deforestation, soil erosion and is prone to drought, civil war and other problems. And within the developed countries there are sometimes political protests by farmers who feel they are being undercut, or by concerned citizens who object to some intensive food production processes - chlorinated chicken or hormone feed beef for example. Currently Britain only produces about 54% of the food that we consume which raises questions about food security in the event of any global conflicts if we were forced back just on national food production. .
The geography of food production is an important topic. We all need to eat, and at some times and in some places many people have not had enough to eat - millions of -people have starved. But there are big global variations in where our food comes from, and how it is produced and distributed. Two of the major influences are soil and climate both of which set limits to what can be grown or produced where. The earths climates are generally classified into a number of major types. Climate in Britain is usually classified as temperate maritime with cool wet winters and warm wet summers. But Britain climate varies considerably between the drier east and wetter west and the colder north and warmer south which both influence food production. But globally there are even larger variations between, for example Mediterranean climates with their hot dry summers - which is where we get most of our grapes, wine, olive oil and salad vegetables. Almeria in Spain is a major source - and the Russian steppes and the American prairies. In the past, until the middle of the C19th the food most people ate was locally or nationally produced. There was relatively little global food trade, although there was a long history of wine, olive oil and grain trade in the Mediterranean and major trade of herring in the Baltic and the North Sea. Nor should not forget the luxury trades in spices from South East Asia or sugar from the Caribbean. But it was the developments in refrigeration, canning, railways and steam ships from the mid C19th which really opened up the global food system supplying western countries. But in the less developed part of the world, particularly those parts prone to drought, and hit by climate change are causing major problems hitting livestock herding and subsistence agriculture. All these changes have an effect on what we eat which we consider in the next episode. Subsequently we will look at the geopolitics of food and food security in the modern world.
The recent election of Pope Leo, an American, who had worked most of his life in Peru, replacing Pope Benedict from Argentina, raised debates about whether the new Pope might be from black Africa or South East Asia. It hightlighted the geography of religions. There are an estimated 5.5 billion people in the world with religious beliefs: the three biggest being Christianity, Islam and Hinduism. But these religions, and their believers,. have geographies - internationally, between countries, intra-nationally - within countries, and regionally and locally. Internationally, Christianity is important in Europe, but also in most of Latin America and Phillippines as a result of Spanish and Portugese colonialism. It is also important in USA. Hinduism is largely concentrated in India, but Islam is important not just in the Middle East but in South East Asia in Indonesia and Malaysia. There is a history of religious segregation and conflict. We can see this in Northern Ireland, in India and recently in Myanmar where the Rohinga's have been violently pushed out into Bangladesh. Conflict in Israel and Palestine is also a major issue. There are also geographies of religious sites and pilgrimages, Jerusalem is a classic example but there is Mecca and Medina and other important ones in India. In Britain there has been growth of new Moslem mosques and Hindu temples and of religious schools. The geography of religion is an important issue.
The South China Sea is a region of growing international importance and growing conflict. It occupies an area of about 3.5 million sq km and it is bounded on the north by Southern China and Taiwan, on the east by the Philippines, on the south by Borneo and Malaysia, and on the west by Vietnam. It constitutes the only sea which China has direct access too after it lost direct access to the Pacific ocean and the Sea of Japan as a result of treaties with Russia. The South China sea is characterised by a large number of small islands, reefs and cays (the Paracel Islands offshore Vietnam and south of Hainan, and the Spratley islands in the middle of the SCS many of which are barely above the water lines. But, since 1948 China has claimed sovereignty of many of these islands and reefs through historic fishing claims and it has produced something called the 'Nine dash line' which (shaped rather like a cows tongue) extends south west from Taiwan to embrace almost all of the South China sea, even extending to James Shoal which is just 25 nautical miles north of Brunei. China has become increasingly assertive in its territorial claims and has engaged in extensive island construction by creating artificial islands on reefs some with harbours and airfields. It has also engaged in a number of aggressive maritime activities against Filippino and Vietnamese fishermen. In 2013 the Philippines took China to international arbitration under the UN law of the sea convention UNCLOS to challenge many of China's claims. The result in 2016 was supportive of the Philippines but China (who did not participate in the arbitration refused to accept it. Today, China is one of the two major naval powers and the dominant economic and political power in South East Asia and it views the South China Sea as its own backyard and the conflicts are likely to continue. https://pca-cpa.org/cn/cases/7/
Whatever the arguments about causes, there is no doubt that the world has been getting considerably warmer over the last 50 years and much warmer over the last 20 years. Mean average global temperature has risen by 1.4 degree C over the last 100 years and it has now speeded up and almost all the hottest years in the last 100 years have been in the last 20 years. Mean annual temperatures are now increasing by 0.2C per decade. Recent years have seen rising temperatures in many parts of the world and some places are now becoming almost uninhabitable. But the increase in temperatures has not been geographically even and nor have its effects. The polar regions have been warming much faster than other areas, and as snow and ice cover shrinks so does the ability to reflect sunlight. The permafrost areas of northern Russia and Canada are beginning to thaw. Europe and the Middle East have also warmed fast and some parts of the world are now becoming uninhabitable. This has major consequences in terms of agriculture, social breakdown and mass migration. Global warming also generates warmer oceans and rising sea levels. We are seeing the effects of this in the increase in the number of major hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic hitting the East coast of north America and then Western Europe with consequent flooding. But the real risks are in areas like the Bay of Bengal where tropical cyclones generate massive flooding in low lying Bangladesh. Some Pacific island states are also under considerable threat from rising sea levels as are big cities like London, New York and Shanghai. The costs of global warming are unequally distributed and are being felt most strongly in many of the world's poorer areas like the Sahel belt of Africa where more frequent droughts are displacing millions of people. This is generating arguments for international climate justice.
Suggesting that America is an empire may seem a bit bizarre as America does not have any colonies at present but if we take a wider perspective, America has a large number of overseas territories and possessions (American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands), and even more overseas military bases: in South Korea, The Philippines, Japan, Okinawa, Germany, Turkey and of course the UK where, until recently, it stored nuclear weapons. And until very recently, Afghanistan and Iraq where the US had bases. It also possesses large naval fleet in the Mediterranean and the Pacific and it has intervened directly or indirectly to overthrow or support the governments of a significant number of countries ranging from Iraq, Nicaragua, Honduras, Chile and Grenada. In addition, the USA has purchased or annexed a number of territories along the way - Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and others. But equally, the US has exercised global economic dominance for at least 80 years, and arguably nearer 100. Nor must we forget its extensive cultural reach, through Hollywood, and indirectly through brands like McDonalds, Coca Cola and Starbucks. But, since the arrival of President Trump in early 2025, many of these givens have been thrown into doubt. There are questions over American support for NATO, over continuation of American economic and political hegemony and the introduction of tariffs has damaged enemies and allies alike (and may significantly damage the USA itself). So, the question of an American Empire is an important one which raises many issues
European empires have a long history and can be traced back to the late C15th when Spanish and Portugese explorers were pushing further and further south down the west coast of Africa. Eventually in 1492 Columbus discovered the New world and the scene was set for Spain and Portugal to divide it up between them. But around the same time Cabot navigated to Newfoundland (the name gives it away) and Labrador. Some time later the Puritans established the first English settlements in Virginia. Then the growing Dutch trading empire began to expand to the East Indies and the scene was set. Subsequently other European powers, first the British and the French, but subsequently the Germans, Italians and Portugese began to establish colonies in Africa. In the 1870s 10% of Africa had been colonized by European powers. By 1914 it reached almost 90% with Belgium taking what came the Belgium Congo. So, right from the start, the growth of European empires was very much a geographical project and geography played a major part in the pattern of colonization with settlers pushing inland in different directions from the north, south, east and west of Africa. But empires rise and fall, grow and contract and the post war period was the era of European decolonization. This episode looks at some of these complex issues.
British and European listeners will probably be familiar with the fact that many European countries developed extensive overseas empires from about 1500 onwards. First the Spanish and Portugese, then the Dutch, then the British, French, German etc. We will discuss these European empires in the next episode. But empires have a much longer history - think back to the Romans, 2000 years ago. At its maximum their empire extended up to Hadrian's wall and down across much of the north African coast and into what is now Turkey. But the Romans are only one example. There was the Mongol empire starting around 1300 that extended at its peak from Mongolia in the east to Belarus and the Baltic states, the Kymer empire in Cambodia, the Mughal empire in India, the Ottoman, the Persian, the Russian and the Chinese empires. Empires come and go, and they also ebb and flow geographically. It seems that almost every empire has an urge to expand geographically to take over neighbouring areas and states. You can't really think about empires without thinking about their geography. And they have a number of key dimensions and legacies: political, economic, social and cultural. Think of the legacy of English, French, Spanish and Portugese language across the globe. Empires and geography are inextricably interwoven.
Most developed western countries have got some form of welfare state or welfare support for their population. These started in some countries in a rudimentary way in the late 19th century or the interwar years, but most countries saw rapid development in the years after WWII. This was when Britain saw the start of National Insurance, the NHS, free secondary school and university education etc. But all this costs a lot of money and western countries tend to spend a lot of money on welfare provision. In Britain its about 10% of GDP and 24% of government spending. State pensions alone cost about £155 bn a year. What is interesting for us is that welfare needs and expenditure tend of have distinct geographies, both internationally and regionally. Internationally there are big variations between the social democratic, Nordic countries which tend to have generous and expensive welfare states which also require high levels of taxation, and 'liberal' countries like the USA which have more rudimentary forms of support, with correspondingly lower taxes. In the middle are France, Germany and the Netherlands which have extensive welfare states. Many of the less developed countries have minimal or non existent welfare programmes. Within countries, there is often considerable variation in both need and expenditure. In Britain, there are distinct regional variations between the more affluent south east and the less prosperous regions of South Wales, the North, North East which all saw large scale de-industrialisation and collapse of employment in coal mining, ship building, textiles, etc. As a result these areas have higher levels of unemployment, sickness and disability with higher levels of benefit expenditure. These patterns are repeated in other western countries which have seen de-industrialisation and in these areas welfare benefits are an important form of income support.
In mid January 2025 President Trump announced that he wanted to take back control of the Panama Canal. We might ask what this is all about and the part answer is that the US originally built and operated the canal then handed it back to Panama in 1979. Cutting off journeys round south America it accounts for about 30% of US container trade. But the Panama canal is part of a much bigger picture. Over the last 50 years global trade has increased enormously and about 80% of it is by ship: container ships or bulk carriers for oil, gas, iron ore etc. But global maritime trade is not evenly spread across the globe. It follows certain routes, often the shortest ones, between major trading countries. Today, large amounts of oil and gas come from the Persian gulf, vast amounts of consumer goods come from China to the west. And given the worlds geography, to cut off the Cape of Good Hope or Cape horn and other circuitous journeys, most ships are travelling via canals or straits each of which may have strategic implications for control and access. This is why President Trump wants the Panama canal back under American control, why the Chinese are concerned about the Straits of Malacca and why almost everyone is concerned to keep the Suez canal and the straits of Hormuz open for navigation. Geography matters a lot for world trade.
In early January 2025 President Trump shocked the world by announcing that the US wanted to buy Greenland. The Danish government said it was not for sale. But this is not the first time that the USA has attempted to buy Greenland. It has made previous offers first in 1867 after it bought Alaska, then again in 1946 when it offered Denmark $100 million, and President Trump made an earlier offer in 2019. So, the idea of US buying Greenland has been around for a long time. In this episode we look at some of the reasons why Greenland is important for the US: economic and strategic. But in fact the US has been expanding territorially for over 200 years from the original 13 colonies. First in 1803 it made the Louisiana purchase from France of almost all of the Mississipi and Missiouri river basins - an area of 800,000 sq miles which effectively doubled the area of the USA. In 1819 it acquired Florida from the Spanish, then in 1845 it acquired Texas, in 1846 it took territory in the NW USA from British Canada: Oregon, Washington and Idaho, followed in 1848 by the Mexican cession which added California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and other bits: a third of the then area of Mexico. Then in 1867 another major purchase of Alaska for $7million from the Russian empire adding over 500,000 sq miles. We can subsequently add Hawaii and Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands....The USA has grown by territorial acquisition over 200 years. Viewed in this context the Greenland approach is not quite so bizarre as it may seem.
Drinking water is crucial for human survival and for agriculture. But, as the world's population grows and pressure on resources increases, water is increasingly becoming a scarce commodity. Conflicts over water have a long history and in recent decades more and more countries want to dam rivers to control the flow, provide water for agriculture and generate power. But activities upstream have a big potential impact downstream. Putting a dam in to generate electricity upstream may have very large consequences downstream in terms of water flow, agriculture and sediment built up. Although Europe, the USA, australia and other continents have experienced big floods in recent years there are also droughts and California is facing major problems. This episode looks, among other things, at the river Nile, the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq, and the major rivers, the Brahmaputra, the Indus and the Mekong with headwaters in Tibet which are crucial for water supply in India, Pakistan and several countries in South East Asia.
People have always migrated from place to place or country to country whether it is to escape hunger, drought, war or persecution or to search for stability, security or better living standards. The nineteenth century was a century of large scale migration, both within Europe, and from Europe to the New World - the USA and Canada. The Irish potato famine saw millions of people migrate to avoid starvation. In post war decades there was large scale labour migration from southern to north western Europe and from European ex colonies to help fill labour shortages and to escape unemployment or low incomes. These waves of international migration have changed the ethnic composition of many European countries. But in recent decades international migration has become a hot topic: whether its the migrants coming across the Channel in small boats,from the Middle East or across the Mediterranean from North Africa, or from various Latin American countries into the USA via Mexico. It has led to considerable political debate and electoral changes. But international migration is complex and there are a variety of push and pull factors. This episode looks at some of the major issues around the topic of international migration.
Borders are extremely important, both in terms of national sovereignty and for human mobility and limits to it. In nomadic societies people often moved relatively freely with the seasons over long distances but borders have become much more important with the evolution of nation states in the last few hundred years. Borders today are marked on maps and sometimes marked on the ground with border fences or even worse. They can function both to keep people out and, as with the Berlin Wall, to keep people in. Britain has distinct maritime borders but in many places, borders are disputed and there are border conflicts and restricted border crossings. We will return to questions about national borders in future episodes.
The term 'postcode lottery' became popular in Britain in the late 1990's to refer to the variations in health care from one area or region to another. It suggested that variations or inequalities in health care provision or drug availability or treatment were essentially random and varied depending on where you lived. Subsequently the term has been widened to refer to variations in educational provision, job opportunities, welfare availability and many other things. But in some respects the term is a misnomer. There are variations from one area and one region to another but they are often geographically structured rather than just random. And there are big variations in access to financial services and to even retailing. In 1971 the geographer David Smith raised the question of 'who gets what, where and why?'And Julian Tudor Hart, a radical GP, put forward the idea of the 'inverse care law' where access to medical services often varied inversely with need. The poorest areas with greater need often had lower levels of provision and vice versa. Its an important geographical issue.
The Falkland Islands are very remote: 8,000 miles south of London, 700 miles north of the northern most part of Antarctica and 300 miles east of Argentina. Only discovered in 1760 by a British sailor, then variously settled and occupied by British, French and Spanish garrisons, the islands were claimed for the British crown in 1832. But, given their proximity, Argentina has, not surprisingly, long laid claim to them and still sees them as part of Argentina. Negotiations were under way to lease them to Argentina when they invaded in 1982 leading to Mrs Thatcher approving a task force to retake the islands. This podcast traces their history and asks the question what is their economic and strategic significance. Whaling and sealing have long ceased but they are a surprisingly important global source for squid fishing and forward base for Antarctic research.
Svalbard, or Spitzbergen, as it used to be called, is an archipelago in the Arctic ocean about midway between the north of Norway and the North Pole and midway between Greenland to the West and the islands of Novaya Zemblya in northern Russia. 60% of it is covered with glaciers and it has about 3000 people. Its a place most people have never heard of, but it has considerable geographical and strategic significance as this episode of Geography Matters makes clear