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Geopolitical Cousins

Author: Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic

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Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.
35 Episodes
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Forecast 2026

Forecast 2026

2025-12-2457:46

Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:16) - Forecasting 2026: Tariffs and Trade(04:40) - US-China Relations and Latin America Focus(11:03) - Predictions for Venezuela and Cuba(13:55) - Ukraine War and Russian Politics(23:57) - European Energy Market Outlook(28:36) - Middle East: A Callous Perspective(29:50) - Saudi Arabia and UAE: Progress and Predictions(30:25) - Iran's Uncertain Future(32:11) - Turkey's Role in Geopolitics(33:08) - Oil Prices and Middle East Stability(35:59) - Israel's Resilience and Market Impact(39:42) - Forecasting Global Trade Agreements(44:57) - The Rise of Robotics in 2026(51:34) - Blind Spots and Unmentioned Regions(54:41) - Final Thoughts and Potential Oversights--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
Cocaine Cowboys

Cocaine Cowboys

2025-12-1701:12:29

Look, the world is decoupling, and everyone is making their bet. Mexico just threw their chips on the table with 50% tariffs, effectively divorcing China to marry the U.S. in a desperate play for North American relevance. Meanwhile, the Andes are swinging hard right, betting that nationalism and market-pro policies are the only way to survive a multipolar free-for-all.... But here's the truth: tariffs are just a consumption tax in a MAGA hat, and if the Supreme Court kills them, the bond market is going to riot. Forget the politics; follow the robots and the revenue.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome :)(01:41) - Mexico's Tariff Decision(07:44) - The Impact of Robotics on Manufacturing(23:42) - Chile's Shift to the Right(24:56) - Right-Wing Movements in Latin America(31:22) - Crime and Immigration in Latin America(38:13) - Montreal and Miami: Cities Built on Illicit Trafficking(38:55) - The Godfather: An American Story of Crime and Legitimization(40:14) - Fentanyl: Declared a Weapon of Mass Destruction(42:38) - US Foreign Policy: Lessons from the 1980s(46:05) - The Trump Administration's Controversial Policies(56:44) - Supreme Court and Tariffs: A Critical Decision(01:10:54) - Concluding Thoughts on US Policy and Economics--Referenced in the Show:Fent is a WMD: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/designating-fentanyl-as-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter:
Do Better

Do Better

2025-12-1301:08:15

The global discourse has hit a new low: political commentators are creating content out of a YouTube moron’s mean-spirited quest for clicks. Nick Fuentes, please, for the love of god, do better. Marko and Jacob drill past the outrage to ask why "mean" has become the default setting for public life.Then, Marko takes on the herculean task of defending the US' new National Security Strategy - which correctly identifies the need for a vital Europe, even if its authors got their core immigration data from clickbait white-woke channels. Finally, the real game: the US-Mexico-China trade triangle, where the path to American greatness may involve Chinese-built factories in Ohio.It’s nihilism, baby.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Setting the Scene(00:43) - Late Night Recording and Personal Updates(01:40) - Controversial Discussion on Hitler and Nick Fuentes(05:44) - Media's Role and Public Perception(26:39) - National Security Strategy Debate(34:28) - European Support for the Euro(35:15) - American Perception of the EU(38:27) - France and the Euro(42:14) - Misdiagnosing Europe's Problems(48:51) - US Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker(56:54) - Mexico's Tariffs on Chinese Imports(58:57) - US-China Relations and Manufacturing(01:05:32) - Podcast Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:National Security Strategy 2025 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter:
Ctrl, Alt, Del

Ctrl, Alt, Del

2025-12-0801:32:371

Let's talk about the National Security Strategy! American policy is entering its “choose-your-own-adventure” era, where fiscal dreams meet bond-market reality, and every global problem looks oddly like a mortgage-rate issue. What happens when primacy of nations collides with actual nations... some of which are run by people you wouldn’t trust with your lawnmower? Marko and Jacob step up to trade pitches on Trump’s “peace,” Venezuela’s theatrics, Honduras’ magical disappearing red lines, and whether geopolitics is now basically just offshore balancing with better PR. Enjoy!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Geopolitical Cousins(01:14) - Raccoon Story and Algorithm Talk(02:40) - Basketball and Leadership Analogies(05:54) - Geopolitics Starts lol(06:10) - Trump Accounts and Economic Policies(21:17) - National Security Strategy Discussion(47:04) - Critique of US Foreign Policy Rigidity(47:18) - Pragmatism in US Foreign Policy(47:35) - US Stance on Iran and Social Issues(48:33) - Historical Context and Containment Policy(49:24) - Flexible Foreign Policy and Realism(50:37) - US Actions in Venezuela and Honduras(56:38) - Venezuela's Oil and US Interests(58:44) - Honduras' Strategic Importance(01:01:55) - US Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy(01:03:19) - National Security Strategy and Global Military Presence(01:08:11) - Debate on Multipolar World and US Strategy(01:23:14) - AI, Crypto, and National Security(01:29:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:National Security Strategy Document - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin:
Comrades and Fuehrers

Comrades and Fuehrers

2025-11-2601:29:12

Rising political extremes, shifting alliances, and competing visions of global order collide as leaders improvise their way through economic anxiety and geopolitical recalibration. Matt Gertken hops into the fray to help the cousins probe the uncomfortable overlap between left-wing populism and right-wing nationalism, the strategic ambiguity surrounding Taiwan, and the high-stakes bargaining shaping the future of Ukraine. What happens when power politics, domestic fragility, and global insecurity all peak at the same time?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Setup(00:40) - Trump and Momani's Unlikely Friendship(02:17) - Analyzing Trump's Political Moves(13:05) - Japan-China Tensions Escalate(17:54) - Geopolitical Implications for Taiwan(30:20) - Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan Discussion(37:19) - Europe's Commitment to Ukraine(38:34) - Ukraine's Strategic Calculations(39:21) - Ukrainian Public Sentiment(40:43) - Debating Russia's Military Competence(43:10) - The 28-Point Plan and Zelensky's Political Future(43:34) - Economic Interests and Rebuilding Ukraine(44:38) - Security Guarantees and Diplomatic Challenges(56:50) - Trump's Role and Strategic Ambitions(01:01:39) - Conspiracy Theories and Speculations(01:02:40) - Debating China's Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict(01:03:50) - Speculating on Ukraine's Future and European Dynamics(01:05:36) - Potential Outcomes of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal(01:11:16) - Historical Analogies and Russia's Political Future(01:21:06) - Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of China(01:26:49) - Thanksgiving Anecdotes and Closing Remarks--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s...
Jacob and Marko finally caved to the mob on X and did what everyone (one guy who asked nicely) keeps yelling at them to do - rank the top five geopolitical U.S. presidents and the bottom five disasters. Not the best presidents. Not the most “inspirational.” The most geopolitically competent… and the ones who should never have been allowed within 500 feet of foreign policy.It gets spicy. Lincoln shows up with ruthless brilliance, Polk rolls in like the ultimate expansionist psychopath, Teddy swings a big stick (and probably breaks a few ribs), and then we get to the bottom five - where the real chaos lives.Why do some leaders bend history while others trip over it? And what happens when the world’s biggest superpower forgets the stakes?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Best Intro Ever(00:42) - Listener Reactions and Content Expectations(01:43) - Current Events and Personal Opinions(02:37) - Coffee Rant and Personal Preferences(05:07) - Geopolitical Anecdotes and Personal Stories(09:58) - Top Five Geopolitical US Presidents(14:10) - Debating Presidential Competence(46:05) - Reagan's Foreign Policy and the Gulf War(46:56) - George HW Bush's Strategic Decisions(48:29) - Bush's Approach to China and Tiananmen Square(49:54) - Theodore Roosevelt's Foreign Policy Legacy(50:58) - Comparing Presidential Foreign Policies(54:50) - Honorable Mentions and Controversial Picks(01:10:17) - Worst Foreign Policy Presidents(01:20:14) - LBJ's Economic and War Policies((01:21:14 George W. Bush's Foreign Policy Failures(01:22:12) - The Impact of Al-Qaeda and the War on Terror(01:26:07) - Truman's Geopolitical Blunders(01:32:26) - Bill Clinton's Missed Opportunities(01:39:36) - Eisenhower's Domino Theory and CIA Operations(01:48:39) - Biden's Foreign Policy Critique(01:59:18) - Final Thoughts and Reflections--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: a...
Communist Reagan

Communist Reagan

2025-11-1201:34:55

Power tilts, voter moods, and economic pressures collide as shifting swing-state margins, rising price levels, and clashing visions of populism redefine the boundaries of U.S. politics. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro traces how competing narratives on inflation, governance, and national identity shape the struggles within both major parties, while global tensions - from tariff battles to uneasy U.S.-China rapprochement - raise the stakes. At its core lies a question: can the political center hold when every lever of power is pulled toward extremes?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:58) - Personal Anecdotes and Flu Game Discussion(02:43) - Client Call Story and Michael Jordan Stats(04:32) - Health Updates and Podcast Menu(05:14) - Democratic Election Victories Analysis(06:20) - Republican Challenges and Latino Vote Shift(08:19) - Potential Democratic Presidential Nominees(17:27) - Inflation and Economic Policies Debate(27:12) - Populism and Fiscal Policies(42:24) - Supreme Court and Tariff Discussions(45:56) - Uncertainty in Trade Policies(46:42) - US-China Trade Deal Breakdown(47:56) - Global Reactions and Comparisons(49:06) - Public Opinion on Trade(50:47) - Trump's Trade War and Its Implications(52:03) - US-China Relations and Future Prospects(01:11:58) - Venezuela and US Foreign Policy(01:22:57) - The Future of Global Geopolitics(01:34:06) - Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes--Referenced in the Show:Communist Reagan - https://x.com/aidannonx/status/1982662832521875962?s=20--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s...
Reverse Nixon

Reverse Nixon

2025-10-2601:50:05

Sanctions, alliances, and power balances are shifting faster than markets can price them. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro look at the U.S. Treasury’s crackdown on Russian oil, the fragility of global energy flows, and the illusion of stability in a world built on competing pain thresholds. Between Washington’s brinkmanship, Moscow’s resolve, and Beijing’s quiet calculation, this episode dissects how endurance—not strategy—defines modern geopolitics, and why every great power eventually meets its limit.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Promotion(00:20) - US-Russia Relations and Sanctions(02:02) - Ukraine Conflict and Ceasefire Prospects(06:03) - European Energy Dependence on Russia(11:36) - Trump's Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals(26:55) - Canada-US Trade Tensions(40:39) - The Limits of Military Power(41:10) - China's Economic Leverage(41:39) - The Trade War Dynamics(42:26) - China's Manufacturing Dependency(43:19) - The Challenge of Decoupling(44:17) - China's Consumer Market Issues(46:32) - The Future of US-China Relations(52:42) - The Role of Semiconductors(57:39) - The Reality of Trade Deals(01:02:23) - Geopolitical Strategies and Misunderstandings(01:05:25) - US Military Posturing in Venezuela(01:15:34) - Trump's Military Strategy and Liberal Media Critique(01:16:46) - Venezuela and Regime Change(01:18:13) - North Korea and Trump's Near Miss(01:19:22) - Maduro's Offer and US Interests(01:28:11) - China's Role and Global Energy Politics(01:38:03) - NBA Scandals and Player Dynamics(01:47:47) - Baseball Playoffs and Personal Anecdotes--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s...
The Illusion of Decoupling

The Illusion of Decoupling

2025-10-1501:19:09

Global trade isn’t just an economic story - it’s a test of power, pride, and patience. Jacob and Marko dive into the illusion of U.S.-China decoupling, exploring how power, dependency, and ideology are colliding in a world too connected to pull apart. From semiconductor choke points to rare earth retaliation, the United States and China are caught in a feedback loop of control and dependency that neither can fully escape. The cousins challenge the myth of economic sovereignty and ask what it really means to compete when every side still depends on the other to function.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (00:38) - Basketball Banter and Podcast Dynamics(01:31) - Ryan Russillo's Move to Barstool Sports(04:31) - US-China Trade Relations and Rare Earth Elements(13:30) - Bureaucratic Inertia and US Foreign Policy(17:45) - Technological Decoupling and Global Trade(21:04) - Geopolitical Realities and Future Predictions(40:15) - Allies and Economic Dependencies(41:30) - American Public Opinion on Trade and China(48:04) - Generational Differences in Political Activism(50:02) - Global Protests and Political Unrest(01:05:31) - Emergence of New Political Brands(01:12:38) - Cocaine and Global Trade(01:16:53) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
The New Cold Peace

The New Cold Peace

2025-10-0801:41:42

What happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations(02:28) - Geopolitical Analysis: Russia and Ukraine(06:19) - Strategic Insights: Ukraine's Tactical Moves(09:16) - European Union and Ukraine Relations(14:36) - Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios(18:43) - Economic and Political Implications(32:38) - European Unity and Putin's Miscalculations(34:21) - European Sentiment on Russia(34:55) - Middle East Geopolitical Updates(37:23) - Gen Z Protests Around the World(41:31) - Generational Politics in the US(48:44) - AI's Economic Impact(01:08:02) - Debating the Future of AI and Marketability(01:08:37) - Nostalgia and the Evolution of Computer Games(01:10:03) - The Shift in Consumer Preferences(01:11:52) - AI's Impact on Future Job Markets(01:14:50) - US vs China: Different Approaches to AI(01:15:42) - The Role of Tech Companies in AI Development(01:26:31) - The Overbuild of Data Centers and Energy Needs(01:30:28) - The Myth of AGI and True Innovation(01:37:59) - Concluding Thoughts on AI and Innovation--Referenced in the Show:AI Will Not Make You Rich — https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: a...
17 Seconds or Less

17 Seconds or Less

2025-09-2301:24:31

Marko and Jacob dive into the latest twists of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Marko makes the case that Russia’s size—once its biggest advantage—is now a glaring weakness, as Ukraine’s drones expose just how fragile pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure really are. Along the way, they poke fun at NATO’s cautious responses, revisit Poland’s not-so-quiet history, and question whether Russia is more paper kitty than paper tiger. It’s lively, skeptical, and very Papic.--Timestamps:(00:00) - The AI Adoption Decline(00:37) - Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine(05:06) - The Impact of Drone Warfare(11:59) - Russia's Strategic Vulnerabilities(20:44) - Historical Context and Modern Implications(26:30) - The Future of Russian Aggression(45:37) - Debating Predictions and Hot Takes(46:39) - American Foreign Policy and Trump's Role(50:33) - H-1B Visa Controversy(52:47) - The Impact on US-India Relations(56:19) - The Role of Immigration in American Greatness(01:05:45) - Jimmy Kimmel and Cancel Culture(01:18:05) - Concluding Thoughts on Media and Politics--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
Elon and Orwell

Elon and Orwell

2025-09-1601:34:20

Pokemon cards outperforming Meta, Cornell students skinning bears, and Elon Musk misusing Orwell... Welcome to this Geopolitical Cousins episode 25. Jacob and Marko continue their conversation about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, arguing that his killing was likely driven less by ideology and more simply a symptom of disaffected young men radicalized by social media and stripped of purpose. Drawing on Dostoevsky’s Raskolnikov and Richard Reeves’ research on boys, they trace how elite overproduction and information overload fuel unrest. Unlike Europe, America lacks historical “inoculation” against extremism. The discussion closed with Bolsonaro’s legal troubles in Brazil and Asia’s simmering political tensions.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:07) - Banter(03:00) - Trivia(09:58) - The Charlie Kirk Assassination Discussion(12:13) - The Crisis of Manliness and Societal Impacts(21:00) -Historical Context and Modern Parallels(33:49) - Global Perspectives and Extremism(46:11) - Political Turmoil in Asia(46:47) - Charlie Kirk and Social Media Impact(48:10) - Historical Reflections on Evil(52:10) - Personal Anecdotes on Racism and Segregation(53:35) - US Education Crisis and Ignorance(57:33) - Civil Wars and State Capacity(01:04:05) - Brazil's Political Drama: Bolsonaro's Trial(01:17:27) - Geopolitical Tensions: Venezuela and Beyond(01:21:10) - China's Moves in the South China Sea(01:21:54) - Russia's Probing Tactics in Europe(01:30:53) - Concluding Thoughts and EuroBasket Update--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter:
Jacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk(02:22) - Political Violence in the US(07:32) - Social Media's Role in Political Discourse(17:29) - Poland and Russia Tensions(33:13) - Israel's Attack on Qatar(38:47) - Nation Building and Israeli Politics(39:47) - Israel's Shift from Plausible Deniability(40:20) - Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza(40:52) - The Hubris of Israeli Strategy(44:07) - The Impact on Israel's Brand(50:16) - Nepal's Gen Z Uprising(52:14) - Indonesia and South Asian Instability(59:04) - Argentina's Economic Challenges(01:09:07) - Trump's Tariffs and Legal Battles(01:17:17) - Conclusion and Future Topics--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
After battling several rounds of pneumonia, Jacob Shapiro rejoins the fray with Marko and tackles the whole month of missed content. The two spar over vaccine mandates and the cultural recycling of movies before turning to the economic disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. From there, the discussion moves to geopolitics: a hot-mic exchange between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on longevity, the emergence of a multipolar world, India’s shifting diplomatic posture, and the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and trade. Welcome back!!!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome Back(00:11) - Jacob's Health and Listener Comments(02:17) - Vaccine Mandates and Public Health(04:03) - Florida and Personal Anecdotes(05:09) - Podcasting and Media Industry Insights(07:20) - AI's Impact on Talent and Content Creation(11:14) - Political Landscape and Aging Leaders(17:30) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Multipolarity(30:44) - China's Foreign Policy and Taiwan(33:02) - US-India Relations and Recent Developments(40:37) - Venezuela and US Military Actions(45:16) - Debating Regime Change in Venezuela(46:33) - Historical Examples of Regime Change(48:10) - Trump's Approach to Foreign Policy(50:28) - Analyzing Trump's Popularity by Issue(53:56) - Economic Indicators and Future Predictions(01:00:54) - The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies(01:05:07) - The Role of AI in Rising Electricity Costs(01:08:02) - Political Landscape and Future Elections(01:21:10) - EuroBasket and Basketball Insights--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter:
Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction to the Intellectual Six Pack(01:34) - Beer Preferences and College Memories(04:06) - Geopolitical Six Pack Concept(05:49) - US-EU Trade Deal Analysis(11:29) - Implications of the Trade Deal(25:35) - Taiwan's Political Landscape(38:21) - US Defense Strategy for Taiwan and Ukraine(41:31) - Trump's Impact on US-India Relations(47:19) - Trump's AI Strategy and US-China Tech Rivalry(01:00:30) - Global Geopolitical Dynamics and Forgotten Territorial Disputes(01:04:58) - Fantasy Basketball Draft Tips--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic dive into the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s evolving stance. They analyze Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin, potential secondary sanctions, and U.S. weapons sales to NATO. The conversation critiques misconceptions about Trump’s loyalty, explores Putin’s domestic challenges, and assesses the potential for a ceasefire. The second half explores tariffs, inflation, and the global trade order, emphasizing Trump’s erratic strategic thinking and the long-term implications for U.S. alliances, particularly with Brazil, India, and Europe.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Catching Up on Global Events(01:54) - Deep Dive: Russia-Ukraine Conflict(03:56) - Trump's Stance on Russia and Ukraine(06:02) - Putin's Challenges and Strategic Objectives(09:37) - Potential Outcomes and Strategic Moves(13:22) - Drone Warfare and Technological Advancements(25:07) - Trademarking 'Paul Baba Bombadil'(25:14) - Analyzing the Latest CPI Data(26:13) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies(27:14) - Political Implications of Inflation(28:22) - Market Perspective on CPI and Inflation(31:38) - US Government's Role in Rare Earths(33:17) - Trump's Trade Policies and Global Impact(37:21) - Strategic Alliances and Global Trade(40:54) - Trump's Approach to International Relations(47:44) - Final Thoughts on Global Trade and Politics--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: a...
Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, with Trump and Putin notably excluded for strategic blunders. It’s a sharp, irreverent take on global leadership dynamics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:58) - The Trade Value Leaders List(03:53) - Controversial Picks and Listener Feedback(06:27) - Deep Dives into Specific Leaders(11:04) - Comparing Leaders to Basketball Players(14:18) - The Legacy Question and Future Leaders(20:27v Top Picks and Their Geopolitical Impact(41:44) - Moral Equivalency Debate(42:59) - Technical Difficulties and Top Two Leaders(48:10) - Georgia Maloney's Economic Turnaround(50:09) - Claudia Shane Baum's Leadership in Mexico(52:01) - Discussion on Vladimir Putin's Leadership(01:06:36) - Debate on Zelensky's Leadership(01:19:02) - Xi Jinping's Strategic Missteps(01:21:31) - China's Social Welfare Failures(01:22:51) - Xi Jinping's Rise to Power(01:24:35) - Xi Jinping's Nationalism and Economic Policies(01:26:03) - Xi Jinping's Challenges and Leadership Style(01:28:58) - Debating Xi Jinping's Impact(01:37:38) - Trump's Leadership and Controversies(01:42:07) - Evaluating Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies(02:04:42) - Final Thoughts on Trump and Leadership Rankings--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter:
Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(00:40) - Concept of Trade Value in Politics(03:56) - Ranking Criteria and Methodology(10:22) - Initial Rankings: 26-30(13:30) - Discussion on Initial Rankings(21:08) - Flawed but Effective Leaders(29:53) - Unproven Gems(38:13) - Competent but Boring Leaders(41:51) - Diamonds Under Pressure(44:52) - Lula and Bolsonaro: The Biden Comparison(45:10) - Victor Orban: The Smart Tactician(45:54) - Benjamin Netanyahu: The Politician's Politician(46:55) - Javier Millet: Crypto Ron Paul Meets Steve Jobs(48:01) - Narendra Modi: The Twilight of a Career(52:40) - Diamonds Under Pressure: Eddie Rama and Cyril Osa(53:16) - Naive Bukele: The Perfect Man for the Era(58:52) - Shigeru Ishiba: The Tragic Hero of Japan(01:02:25) - Top Leaders: From Pedro Sanchez to Georgia Maloney(01:19:12) - Final Thoughts--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at...
Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
America Strikes Iran

America Strikes Iran

2025-06-2201:24:20

Jacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes(01:14) - US-Iran Conflict Overview(01:49) - Iran's Response and Global Reactions(04:58) - Historical Context and Comparisons(07:05) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations(07:48) - Regime Change and Internal Dynamics(09:01) - Global Implications and Multipolarity(33:26) - Terrorism and Security Concerns(41:57) - Bannon's Point and West LA(42:48) - World War III Threat Analysis(43:19) - Iran's Strategic Moves(44:31) - Empirical Evidence and Predictions(48:18) - Iran's Retaliation and US Response(55:20) - Trump's Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World(01:16:30) - Global Stability and Instability(01:20:05) - NBA Trade and Game 7 Predictions--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com --Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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Comments (1)

Dimitri Dardanis

Financially, the US Fed may have been engaging in QT, but the US Federal Govt has been running enormous deficits that overpowered the Fed's efforts. This hasn't led to equilibrium but a massive deficit tsunami heading towards the US economy. Politically the US Givt has allowed other nations to act as their fiscal deficit which will lead to a political tsunami that'll overpower US efforts of control (if any) and open the playing field to more actors & some of these will be bad actors.

May 13th
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