Geopolitical Horizons

In this podcast we preview the forthcoming annual geopolity report, Strategic Estimate 2024

Across Syria and the Middle East scenes of jubilation are beaming across the world as people celebrate the fall of the long-term dictator Bshar al-Assad. What couldn’t be achieved in 13 years, has now happened in just two weeks. Bashar al-Assad took a flight and fled as rebel forces reached Damascus. The end of the tyrannical rule of the al-Assad dynasty now opens a new chapter in the strategic country.

On 19 November the Ukraine war passed 1,000 days and the Ukrainian position is looking as precarious as ever. Since the U.S. presidential election, there has been significant speculation about what Donald Trump's victory means for the war in Ukraine. Trump's campaign pledge to end the war quickly, combined with his veiled threats of suspending US financial and military aid for Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow, have raised questions about whether the conflict could end in 2025. In Just over two months, the Ukraine war will be 3 years old, and it seems now the beginning of the end is upon us. 

Things are hotting up in the Middle East with Israel about to imminently launch a strike on Iran due to its missile strikes on Israeli targets. Talk of a major escalation are now reaching fever pitch with WW3 now considered a likely outcome. Iran and Israel have been enemies for decades and now their enmity has spilled out into public view with devastating consequences. Are we really on the brink? 

October 7th, 2023, is considered the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. The Israeli response to October 7th has seen much of the world turn against it with the country taken to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over a likely genocide. In this podcast we look at what drove groups from Gaza to launch the assault, the Israeli response and where things stand after 12 months.

Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and dozens of drones toward numerous Israeli military targets in August after Israel's assassination of Faud Shukr, a Hezbollah commander and Hamas political leader, Ismail Hanaya. With the US ceasefire proposal stalling and Israel’s assassination strategy expanding, it seems events are spiralling out of control and a region wide war is inching closer. In this po

Just 6 months ago Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League secured a fourth consecutive term in office, but now the ruling party faces its biggest challenge yet as hundreds and thousands have taken to the streets in protest against the quota system that reserves government jobs for regime supporters. The regime has responded in brutal fashion, cutting the internet and instituting a curfew. Bangladesh has for long been touted as a rising tiger economy, but the masses are struggling to make ends meet. Is this the beginning of the end of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League? 

In the last week social media blew up with news regarding the unwritten petrodollar deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which has been the bedrock of the dollar's dominance, coming to an end. The demise of the dollar has been a regular feature of discussion in geopolitics in the last decade. On the one hand we have China and Russia calling for alternatives and on the other hand you have US commentators questioning the dollar's continued dominance. What does this mean for the US as a global power?  Will this be the end of the American Empire?

In this podcast we cover the questions you had for us at the geopolity. From the Gaza war to the war in Ukraine, as well as the UK elections and who the deep state are in the US. 

In a recent report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, they concluded the bedrocks of democracy are under threat across the globe. They found democracy is in decline around the world, including Europe, where it was born. The report comes alongside a long line of similar reports, research and analysis that show democracy is in retreat. Democracy was for long presented as the nirvana, the ultimate form of government, the west invaded nations to export democracy, but today its own people seem to be losing confidence in this mediaeval idea. How has it all gone so horribly wrong?

The 15th May will see many commemorating “Nakba Day”, marking the catastrophe of the Palestinians with the creation of the Zionist nation. The Nakba has stood as a grim marker of the Zionist's criminality for 76 years. But these last 6 months have surpassed anything that came previously. Israel is now assaulting the last area of Gaza in Rafah, and the numbers injured and killed continue to grow. In this podcast Umar Hussain from Palestine looks back at the events that led to the Nakba and Jameel Khan assesses where things currently stand in Gaza.

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions in the world. It is also one of the most populated parts of the world that has two nuclear powers. Russia, China and the US are all looking to win the support of the region for their respective strategic interests which makes the region all the more important to understand.

The world's largest democracy goes to the polls from the 19th April to the 1st June to elect the Indian parliament. The election will be held in several stages and see’s the incumbent  Narendra Modi looking to secure a third term in office. The BJP has now been in power for a decade and is looking to cement its legacy and leave its mark on India. Whoever wins the elections faces some major challenges from the economy to energy to communal relations. 

Central Asia was once the prize in the so-called Great Game, a centre of competition for the Russians, British, Persians, Mongols and Turks at various times. The region sits at the intersection of the Russian steppes, the western Chinese frontier, the mountain passes into the Indian subcontinent, and the modern Middle East. The region is at once a barrier and a bridge between the powers in its periphery. It is a path for trade and a highway for invasion, a vast strategic buffer and a cauldron of ethnic and national competition and instability. In this podcast we look at the geopolitics of Central Asia.

With global power shifting to the East it become even more important to understand this region, its history, geopolitics and future role.

The 3rd March 2024 marks the 100 year anniversary of the demise of the Khilafah. The decades leading up to the 3rd March 1924, was a difficult period for the global leadership of the Muslims, as various European powers were competing with each other over Arabia, North Africa, the Balkans and the Black sea. Today, 100 years on Capitalism's supremacy is running out of steam. As we fast approach the quarter point of the 21st century, the forward march of liberal values, the dominance of democracy and the liberal economic order are all on life support. The West is now struggling to justify why we should all be liberals. Across the Muslim world the demand for Islamic governance remains high, something recognised by successive polls and surveys. In the context of liberal values struggling to deliver, does the Khilafah 100 years since its demise still present a new opportunity for nearly 2 billion Muslims? Will its resurrection be able to work in the 21st century? 

Russia spectacular failure to conquer the Ukrainian capital two years ago is now a distant memory. On the two year anniversary since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is running out of troops as well as western support and calls for negotiations are only growing. US and European attempts to sanction, isolate and cripple Russia have failed to succeed. The broad support from the West that promised ‘as long as it takes’ has now given way to war fatigue. A Western-Ukrainian victory is looking allusive on the second anniversary of the conflict. 

With so much going on currently in the world in this podcast we can look at multiple geopolitical issues. 

Elections, wars, coups, tech wars and trade wars are just some of the trends that will likely shape the new year. In this podcast we look at the key issues that will likely shape the geopolitical landscape in 2024. 

In this podcast we preview the forthcoming annual geopolity report, Strategic Estimate 2024