Geostrategy with Abhijit Chavda

Episode 15 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: We dissect the most important geopolitical developments of the week, analyze flashpoints, and do forecasting.

Episode 14 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: We dissect the most important geopolitical developments of the week, analyze flashpoints, and do forecasting.

Episode 13 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Abhijit Chavda dissects the most important geopolitical developments of the week, analyze flashpoints, and do forecasting.

Episode 12 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Global Intel Briefing, Flashpoints, Forecasts. In this episode of Geostrategy, get a global intel briefing on what's really happening worldwide. Dive into the world of geopolitics and geostrategy to uncover the truth behind current global events.

Episode 11 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Dalai Lama's Huge Announcement; China Furious, India-Tibet Border Goes on High Alert.

Episode 10 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Global Intel Briefing, Flashpoints, Critical Events.

Episode 9 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Trump Ends War? How China Wrecks BRICS & RIC - - - - - - - - - - - - -For business/collaboration, email at business.chavda@gmail.com - - - - - - - - - - - - -0:00 - Introduction: Trump's Ceasefire & China's Spoiler Role1:54 - Israel-Iran Conflict: The 12-Day War Overview3:42 - Chronology: Operation Rising Lion & Iranian Retaliation6:54 - US Intervention: Operation Midnight Hammer8:45 - Iranian Counter-Strike on US Base in Qatar9:52 - Ceasefire Breakthrough & Trump's Diplomatic Role11:35 - Ceasefire Violations & Final Strikes13:53 - Assessment: Iran's Nuclear Program Impact18:00 - Key Takeaways from the Israel-Iran Conflict20:57 - China Analysis: The Great Spoiler Introduction21:44 - China-Russia Relations: Xi Jinping Era Overview28:30 - Military Cooperation & Border Settlements32:58 - Hidden Tensions: China's Territorial Claims on Russia38:53 - Cartographic Warfare: The 2023 Map Controversy45:33 - FSB Intelligence: Russia Views China as Enemy53:22 - RIC Coalition: Why It Won't Work1:09:08 - BRICS Analysis: China's Dominance Problem1:19:28 - BRICS Scenarios: Fragmentation vs Cooperation1:26:57 - How China Strengthens US Global Primacy1:35:06 - Washington's Strategic Gains from China's Actions1:41:22 - Strategic Recommendations for India1:46:19 - Conclusion: Managing the China Threat

Episode 8 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Trump Attacks Iran But Fails To Satisfy Israel. - - - - - - - - - - - - -For business/collaboration, email at business.chavda@gmail.com - - - - - - - - - - - - -0:00 Introduction to Geostrategy Episode 82:00 Nuclear Weapons Double Standards and India's Deterrence Lesson3:06 International Law Violations in Current Wars3:44 UN's Purpose, Effectiveness, and Four Fundamental Objectives6:03 Maintaining International Peace, Security, and Diplomatic Relations7:19 UN Security Council Conflict Response and Wartime Functions8:30 Peacekeeping Operations Reality Check9:06 Past UN Military Successes: Korean War, Gulf War, Libya 201111:26 Pattern of US-Aligned Interventions12:37 Notable UN Failures: Rwanda Genocide, Catholic Church Role15:06 Somalia and Syria Failures, Syrian Conflict as Western Regime Change17:22 UN's Structural Limitations and Veto Power Paralysis18:26 Current Israel-Iran Crisis Assessment and June 2025 Military Escalation20:55 Emergency Security Council Meetings and Antonio Gutiérrez's Warnings22:51 Security Council Resolution Failures and US Opposition to Ceasefires25:13 UN Secretary-General's Institutional Criticism27:37 International Law Violations: Nuclear Facility Attacks30:10 UN's Preventive Diplomacy Mandate Failure and Cold War Pattern32:32 Recent Conflict Timeline June 19-23: Israeli Strikes, IRGC Deaths33:48 Iranian Missile Retaliation and Netanyahu's Response34:22 Trump's Two-Week Window and US Entry: Bombing Iranian Nuclear Sites35:44 B-2 Bombers, Bunker Busters, International Condemnation, NPT Violations37:25 Expanding Targets: Haifa, Tel Aviv Strikes, Operation Rising Lion: 450 Missiles38:38 Strategic Implications, Israeli Objectives, US Nuclear Prevention Justification39:49 Iran's Strait of Hormuz Closure Threats40:23 Previous Forecast Assessment: Scenario B Realized42:43 Why US Intervention Occurred: Netanyahu's Need for Comprehensive Victory43:58 Netanyahu's Corruption Timeline 2016-2019: Three Core Cases46:34 Case 1000: Gifts Affair; Case 2000: Media Deal; Case 4000: Bezeq Scandal48:24 November 2019: First PM Criminal Indictment and Trial Timeline49:40 Electoral Consequences, Political Polarization, Right-Wing Government52:23 Judicial Reform Controversy, Mass Protests, October 7 Security Failure53:41 Independent Commission Findings and Political Resilience Despite Blame55:32 Factors in Netanyahu's Recovery: Iran Conflict as Political Salvation57:33 83% Support for Iran Strikes, Corruption Trial Overshadowed58:48 Netanyahu's Potential Churchill Moment and Victory Requirements1:01:31 Regional Transformation, Abraham Accords, Sustained Public Support1:03:20 Trump's Quick Support and Complete Victory Requirements: Regime Change1:05:42 Iran Nuclear Program Continuation Likelihood1:06:17 New 7-90 Day Forecast: Four Scenarios1:06:59 Scenario A: Negotiated Pause (70%), High Intensity Exchange, Trump's Nobel Prize Motivation1:10:29 Scenario B: Protracted Regional Conflict (20%), Strait of Hormuz Disruption1:12:58 Scenario C: Nuclear Threshold Escalation (5%), Uncontrolled Cascade, Global Recession1:14:57 Scenario D: Rapid De-escalation Grand Bargain (5%), Secret Back Channels1:17:18 Iran Nuclear Test Probability: 12% in 6 Months1:18:02 Technical Feasibility: 60% Enriched Uranium, 3000 Advanced Centrifuges1:19:54 Strategic Factors: Deterrence Reestablishment, Russia's Uranium Removal1:22:44 Historical Nuclear Test Benchmarks: North Korea 2006, India's Pokhran-II1:25:40 Technical vs Political Feasibility Assessment1:27:36 Regime Change Probability: 6% in 6 Months1:28:13 Leadership Pressure, Decapitation Strikes, Military/Domestic Stability1:31:53 Economic Collapse vs Factors Lowering Regime Change Probability1:33:32 Historical Precedents: Iraq 2003, Arab Spring, Iranian Demonstrations1:37:11 Key Monitoring: Nuclear/Military, Elite Defections, Diplomatic Channels1:38:26 Conclusion and Next Steps

Episode 7 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Israel-Iran War? Regime Change in Tehran?

Episode 6 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Will Iran Go Nuclear? Israel-Iran, Global Intelligence Briefing, Future Scenarios.

Episode 5 of #ChavdaGeostrategy : Ahmedabad Air Crash, TRUMP-PAKISTAN Connection, Trump Business Empire GROWS

Episode 4 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: Global Intelligence Briefing - Flashpoints, Scenarios, Past Prediction Analysis

Episode 3 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: We discuss the most important and pressing geopolitical issues of the day, in depth.

Episode 2 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: We discuss the most important and pressing geopolitical issues of the day, in depth.

Episode 1 of #ChavdaGeostrategy: We kick off the series with what will be a weekly feature: a global intelligence briefing that covers the most important geopolitical events of the past week, predictive scenarios for the next 7-30 days, and more. - - - - - - - - - - - - -For business/collaboration, email at business.chavda@gmail.com - - - - - - - - - - - - -Support The Channel:►UPI (G-Pay/PhonePe/Paytm): abhijitchavda@icici►PayPal: https://paypal.me/AbhijitChavda - - - - - - - - - - - - -OUTLINE:0:00 Introduction and Music1:12 Welcome to Geostrategy with Abhijit Chavda2:10 Show Format and Objectives2:55 Weekly Intelligence Briefing Overview4:09 Top 10 Most Impactful Developments4:32 Ukraine Weapon Range Limits Lifted6:35 Ukraine's Strategic Aircraft Strike on Russia9:52 North Korea's Massive Arms Supply to Russia12:12 Iran Nuclear Talks and Uranium Enrichment17:00 US Warns of Imminent China Threat to Taiwan20:05 US Doubles Steel Tariffs in Trade War22:33 China Restricts Critical Minerals Export24:46 US Expands Chinese Tech Ban to Software26:34 US Designates Sahel as Global Terror Hub30:48 Predictions for Next 7-90 Days31:40 Russia-Ukraine Conflict Scenarios34:33 Frozen Conflict Scenario Analysis36:47 Diplomatic Breakthrough Scenario40:18 Iran Nuclear Standoff Scenarios44:36 Iran Temporary De-escalation Scenario47:10 Iran Military Escalation Scenario49:22 India-Pakistan Relations Analysis51:12 India-Pakistan Controlled Confrontation54:15 India-Pakistan Military Escalation Risk56:31 India-Pakistan De-escalation Scenario58:21 Global AI Development Arms Race1:02:18 AI Fragmented Advancement Scenario1:06:10 AI Technological Stagnation Scenario1:08:24 Top Evolving Developments to Track1:09:05 US-China Technological Confrontation1:10:29 Ukraine War Escalation with Western Support1:11:49 Trump's America First Trade Policy1:14:02 Iran Nuclear Standoff Intensifying1:15:56 Global Geopolitical Realignment1:19:56 Soft Signals Analysis1:20:22 China's Hybrid Battery Technology Breakthrough1:22:50 US Military Messaging Shift in Africa1:25:30 Syria-Israel Cooperation Hints1:28:29 New Russian Cyber Actor "Void Blizzard"1:30:28 Global Risk Assessment Summary1:34:24 Conclusion and Next Episode Preview - - - - - - - - - - - - -Intro music credit: Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio - - - - - - - - - - - - -