Grant’s Current Yield Podcast

Marty Fridson,  chief investment officer Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors LLC and “One of Wall Street’s most thoughtful and perceptive analysts” according to the New York Times, stops by to discuss all things credit. 2:54 What’s new in high-yield and leveraged loans   7:30 Marty’s preferred income-generating assets 13:00 A garden-variety recession:  Enough to spur widespread defaults? 19:24 Price controls, central planning and central banking 24:03 Can negative-yielding issuers default?   Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Tuomas Malinen, PhD (econ.) CEO of GnS Economics Limited and Adjunct Professor of Economics at the University of Helsinki, calls in to express his concerns with modern theory and practice. 2:00 Applying scientific principals to economics 6:24 Groupthink in action 13:10 Central banks and intellectual dissent   15:20 MMT: the endgame 17:32 Investment implications Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, calls in to discuss the state of markets and central banking following Wednesday’s rate cut. @biancoresearch https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-bianco-117619152/   2:25 Press conference post-mortem 8:01 Inverted yield curve: predictor of recession, or cause? 14:10 Negative rates on the way for the U.S.? 21:41 Jim’s interview at the Fed Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Jay Van Sciver, head of industrials at Hedgeye Risk Management, comes by to discuss opportunities in cyclicals, the state of the economy and some of our favorite profitless unicorns. @hedgeyelndstrls https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-v-6740985/   2:10 Decelerating growth and replacement demand 5:13 Jay’s preferred metrics 11:07 Why don’t Uber and Lyft make money? 15:38 Down on the farm 18:26 Jay’s favorite ideas Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Carl E. Walter, longtime bank executive and coauthor of “Red Capitalism,” joins the program to discuss important recent happenings in China. 2:55 Reading the tea-leaves 8:12 Baoshang Bank: A small fish causing big problems 14:12 Hong Kong and the mainland 19:56 More stimulus on the way? 24:38 Swapping loans for bonds Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis, Sayles & Company and fixed income investor extraordinaire, calls in to discuss the state of markets in 2019. @LoomisSayles www.loomissayles.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/loomis-sayles-&-company/ https://www.facebook.com/pages/Loomis-Sayles/309712695756188 1:36 A rate-hike shock collar 8:12 Negative rates and the nature of safety 17:07 The 1984 bear market retest: Symmetry? 22:44 The “flow of funds phenomenon” 27:00 Dan’s positioning Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, LLC, calls in to assess conditions and opportunities around the world. 3:47 “There’s no such thing as a bargain  in the absence of fear” 8:53 Shiller P/E and central banks 13:06 Bubbles in a negative-rate era 20:13 Deficit spending: Does it matter? 24:36 The nature of indexation Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP), head of global research of Alhambra Investments, calls in to discuss the workings of the modern financial system, and to offer his views on the best ways for investors to position themselves.   1:35 Eurodollars: What they are and why they matter 8:20 “There’s something wrong here” 14:55 Paul Volker and the bond bear market.  A mirror to today? 18:02 Contrarianism and consensus Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Jim, Evan and Phil assess the state of play in high-yield credit, macroprudential regulation and an instructive recent op-ed in @WSJ. 1:40 #Trump and the USS John McCain 5:24 Do businesses need a rate cut? 10:26 An Aiful-ly low yield 16:16 Alternatives to raising rates Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Christopher Balding, associate professor at the Fulbright University of Vietnam, calls in to discuss all things China. @BaldingsWorld 1:43 Dramatic change in the air. Social credit risk 5:15 Economic growth, real and reported 9:25 “They are shorter on dollar liquidity than most people realize” 15:11 Huawei: What do we make of it? 23:18 Inflation vs. deflation Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

A super-sized episode.  Jim, Evan and Phil discuss the latest financial happenings.  Sabrina Fox, executive advisor of ELFA Investor Group, details the challenges awaiting creditors in Europe’s loan and high-yield debt markets. @freewheelingfox https://www.linkedin.com/in/sabrina-fox-45b29b7b/ https://elfainvestors.com/ 1:12 Unicorns: Where’s the beef? 11:06 This Compass points away from the profits 15:38 European credit, a bird’s-eye view 23:02 Covenant erosion on either side of the Atlantic 29:33 Information asymmetry and liquidity in the secondary market Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Kent Collier and Sarah Gefter of credit research firm @Reorg call in to discuss the latest happenings in distressed debt. www.reorg.com @DDinvesting 3:51 2007, then and now 7:16 Taking inventory of the cycle 12:51 The J. Crew “trapdoor.”  Innovation or gimmick? 18:02 Deteriorating accounting standards 20:38 Issues that might ring the bell Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

Andrew Park, senior editor at S&P Global’s LCD unit, joins Grant’s to discuss all things credit. 1:35 The current cycle:  What’s different? 5:45 CDOs in 2008 and CLOs today. Similarities and differences 12:01 Promised acquisition strategies: Dreams don’t always come true 15:55 Credit managers need new supply, and borrowers happy to oblige https://www.spglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-park-1b87642/ https://twitter.com/apark_ Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com    

George Friedman (@GPFutures), founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, calls in to discuss global goings-on and their potential investment implications. Jim identifies a potential long-term inflection point. 1:17 Germany’s upside-down banking system 7:29 Bad loans: A Chinese specialty 9:45 What to expect 90 years out? 14:28 The “Time Magazine indicator” .@GPFutures https://www.linkedin.com/in/georgefriedmangpf/ https://www.facebook.com/GeorgeFriedmanGPF/ ‏ Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com    

Barclay Leib (@btl0823) founder and principal of Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, comes by the office to discuss asset allocation, forensic accounting and Wall Street history. 1:44 Rules for selecting fund managers 5:40 Where does “edge” come from? 8:18 Fun and games in fund returns 12:17 The famous Hunt brothers trade 18:30 Unfavorable prices? Regulate them away Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com

Jim, Evan and Phil break down the watershed FOMC meeting this past week. Jim provides his updated reading list.   1:00 A startling announcement 5:15 2003 redux 10:08 E-Z money in the #economy 15:30 “Tools” and “frameworks” and “challenges”   .@federalreserve Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com  

Michael Schaus, director of market research for Brenton Point Wealth Advisors LLC and Zweig-DiMenna, stops by the office to discuss the current outlook and to remember the great investor Martin Zweig. https://brentonpoint.com/ 1:37 The European Central Bank takes it easy 6:40 Negative interest rates, back in vogue 12:39 Market cap to GDP: An useful indicator? 20:50 Weighing stock picking vs. macro  Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com    

Jim and Evan discuss the latest monetary happenings, the retirement of a Wall Street legend, and a little baseball.  1:17 The Fed’s listening tour and William McChesney Martin 8:20 Inflation catch-up 12:45 “A lack of dynamism” 13:00 Bill Gross and the Bank of Japan .@federalreserve .@bank_of_japan_e Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com    

Jim and Evan discuss recent happenings, with European credit and banking in focus. 1:32 French 30-year sovereigns offer “solid yields.”  3:40 Deutsche Bank, the big sick puppy 9:19 European banks and the so-called capital relief trade 10:45 Memorializing Dodgers great Don Newcombe 11:51 Amazon.com’s puffer jacket .@DeutscheBank .@Amazon.com Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com

As Japan marks 20 years of ultra-low rates, Jim and Phil take a look at monetary policies around the world. Jim shares his current reading list.   1:47 How long's secular? 3:50 Negative interest rates: a compendium 10:36 Grant's book club 14:57 The Fed's solvency, or lack thereof Subscribe to the Grant's Current  Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com