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This is a hybrid heart disease risk factor post of a podcast with Prof Bruce Lanphear on lead and a piece I was asked to write for the Washington Post on risk factors for heart disease.First, the podcast. You may have thought the problem with lead exposure was circumscribed to children, but it’s a much bigger issue than that. I’ll concentrate on the exposure risk to adults in this interview, including the lead-estrogen hypothesis. Bruce has been working on the subject of lead exposure for more than 30 years. Let me emphasize that the problem is not going away, as highlighted in a recent New England Journal of Medicine piece on lead contamination in Milwaukee schools, “The Latest Episode in an Ongoing Toxic Pandemic.”Transcript with links to the audio and citationsEric Topol (00:05):Well, hello. This is Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I'm very delighted to welcome Professor Bruce Lanphear from Simon Fraser University in British Columbia for a very interesting topic, and that's about lead exposure. We tend to think about lead poisoning with the Flint, Michigan, but there's a lot more to this story. So welcome, Bruce.Bruce Lanphear (00:32):Thank you, Eric. It's great to be here.Eric Topol (00:33):Yeah. So you had a New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) Review in October last year, which was probably a wake up to me, and I'm sure to many others. We'll link to that, where you reviewed the whole topic, the title is called Lead Poisoning. But of course it's not just about a big dose, but rather chronic exposure. So maybe you could give us a bit of an overview of that review that you wrote for NEJM.Bruce Lanphear (01:05):Yeah, so we really focused on the things where we feel like there's a definitive link. Things like lead and diminished IQ in children, lead and coronary heart disease, lead and chronic renal disease. As you mentioned, we've typically thought of lead as sort of the overt lead poisoning where somebody becomes acutely ill. But over the past century what we've learned is that lead is one of those toxic chemicals where it's the chronic wear and tear on our bodies that catches up and it's at the root of many of these chronic diseases that are causing problems today.Eric Topol (01:43):Yeah, it's pretty striking. The one that grabbed me and kind of almost fell out of my chair was that in 2019 when I guess the most recent data there is 5.5 million cardiovascular deaths ascribed to relatively low levels, or I guess there is no safe level of lead exposure, that's really striking. That's a lot of people dying from something that cardiology and medical community is not really aware of. And there's a figure 3 [BELOW] that we will also show in the transcript, where you show the level where you start to see a takeoff. It starts very low and by 50 μg/liter, you're seeing a twofold risk and there's no threshold, it keeps going up. How many of us do you think are exposed to that type of level as adults, Bruce?Bruce Lanphear (02:39):Well, as adults, if we go back in time, all of us. If you go back to the 1970s when lead was still in gasoline, the median blood lead level of Americans was about 13 to 15 µg/dL. So we've all been exposed historically to those levels, and part of the reason we've begun to see a striking decline in coronary heart disease, which peaked in 1968. And by 1978, there was a 20% decline, 190,000 more people were alive than expected. So even in that first decade, there was this striking decline in coronary heart disease. And so, in addition to the prospective studies that have found this link between an increase in lead exposure and death from cardiovascular disease and more specifically coronary heart disease. We can look back in time and see how the decline in leaded gasoline led to a decline in heart disease and hypertension.Eric Topol (03:41):Yeah, but it looks like it's still a problem. And you have a phenomenal graph that's encouraging, where you see this 95% reduction in the lead exposure from the 1970s. And as you said, the factors that can be ascribed to like getting rid of lead from gasoline and others. But what is troubling is that we still have a lot of people that this could be a problem. Now, one of the things that was fascinating is that you get into that herbal supplements could be a risk factor. That we don't do screening, of course, should we do screening? And there's certain people that particularly that you consider at high risk that should get screened. So I wasn't aware, I mean the one type of supplements that you zoomed in on, how do you say it? Ayurvedic?Supplements With LeadBruce Lanphear (04:39):Oh yeah. So this is Ayurvedic medicine and in fact, I just was on a Zoom call three weeks ago with a husband and wife who live in India. The young woman had taken Ayurvedic medicine and because of that, her blood lead levels increased to 70 µg/dL, and several months later she was pregnant, and she was trying to figure out what to do with this. Ayurvedic medicine is not well regulated. And so, that's one of the most important sources when we think about India, for example. And I think you pointed out a really important thing is number one, we don't know that there's any safe level even though blood lead levels in the United States and Europe, for example, have come down by over 95%. The levels that we're exposed to and especially the levels in our bones are 10 to 100 times higher than our pre-industrial ancestors.Bruce Lanphear (05:36):So we haven't yet reached those levels that our ancestors were exposed to. Are there effects at even lower and lower levels? Everything would suggest, we should assume that there is, but we don't know down below, let's say one microgram per deciliter or that's the equivalent of 10 parts per billion of lead and blood. What we also know though is when leaded gasoline was restricted in the United States and Canada and elsewhere, the companies turned to the industrializing countries and started to market it there. And so, we saw first the epidemic of coronary heart disease in the United States, Canada, Europe. Then that's come down over the past 50 years. At the same time, it was rising in low to middle income countries. So today over 95% of the burden of disease from lead including heart disease is found in industrializing countries.Eric Topol (06:34):Right. Now, it's pretty striking, of course. Is it true that airlines fuel is still with lead today?Bruce Lanphear (06:45):Well, not commercial airlines. It's going to be a small single piston aircraft. So for example, when we did a study down around the Santa Clara County Airport, Reid-Hillview, and we can see that the children who live within a half mile of the airport had blood lead levels about 10% higher than children that live further away. And the children who live downwind, 25% higher still. Now, nobody's mapped out the health effects, but one of the things that's particularly troubling about emissions from small aircraft is that the particle size of lead is extraordinarily small, and we know how nanoparticles because they have larger surface area can be more problematic. They also can probably go straight up into the brain or across the pulmonary tissues, and so those small particles we should be particularly worried about. But it's been such a long journey to try to figure out how to get that out of aircraft. It's a problem. The EPA recognized it. They said it's an endangerment, but the industry is still pushing back.Eric Topol (07:55):Yeah, I mean, it's interesting that we still have these problems, and I am going to in a minute ask you what we can do to just eradicate lead as much as possible, but we're not there yet. But one study that seemed to be hard to believe that you cited in the review. A year after a ban leaded fuel in NASCAR races, mortality from coronary heart disease declined significantly in communities near racetracks. Can you talk about that one because it's a little bit like the one you just mentioned with the airports?Bruce Lanphear (08:30):Yeah. Now that study particularly, this was by Alex Hollingsworth, was particularly looking at people over 65. And we're working on a follow-up study that will look at people below 65, but it was quite striking. When NASCAR took lead out of their fuel, he compared the rates of coronary heart disease of people that live nearby compared to a control group populations that live further away. And he did see a pretty striking reduction. One of the things we also want to look at in our follow-up is how quickly does that risk begin to taper off? That's going to be really important in terms of trying to develop a strategy around preventing lead poisoning. How quickly do we expect to see it fall? I think it's probably going to be within 12 to 24 months that we'll see benefits.Eric Topol (09:20):That's interesting because as you show in a really nice graphic in adults, which are the people who would be listening to this podcast. Of course, they ought to be concerned too about children and all and reproductive health. But the point about the skeleton, 95% of the lead is there and the main organs, which we haven't mentioned the kidney and the kidney injury that occurs no less the cardiovascular, the blood pressure elevation. So these are really, and you mentioned not necessarily highlighted in that graphic, but potential cognitive hit as well. You also wrote about how people who have symptoms of abdominal pain, memory impairment, and high blood pressure that's unexplained, maybe they should get a blood level screening. I assume those are easy to get, right?Bruce Lanphear (10:17):Oh yeah, absolutely. You can get those in any hospital, any clinic across the country. We're still struggling with having those available where it's most needed in the industrializing countries, but certainly available here. Now, we don't expect that for most people who have those symptoms, lead poisoning is going to be the cause, right. It'd still be unusual unless you work in

Eric Topol (00:06):Hello, this is Eric Topol from Ground Truths, and I'm delighted to welcome Owen Tripp, who is a CEO of Included Health. And Owen, I'd like to start off if you would, with the story from 2016, because really what I'm interested in is patients and how to get the right doctor. So can you tell us about when you lost your hearing in your right ear back, what, nine years ago or so?Owen Tripp (00:38):Yeah, it's amazing to say nine years, Eric, but obviously as your listeners will soon understand a pretty vivid memory in my past. So I had been working as I do and noticed a loss of hearing in my right ear. I had never experienced any hearing loss before, and I went twice actually to a sort of national primary care chain that now owned by Amazon actually. And they described it as eustachian tube dysfunction, which is a pretty benign common thing that basically meant that my tubes were blocked and that I needed to have some drainage. They recommended Sudafed to no effect. And it was only a couple weeks later where I was walking some of the senior medical team at my company down to the San Francisco Giants game. And I was describing this experience of hearing loss and I said I was also losing a little bit of sensation in the right side of my face. And they said, that is not eustachian tube dysfunction. And well, I can let the story unfold from there. But basically my colleagues helped me quickly put together a plan to get this properly diagnosed and treated. The underlying condition is called vestibular schwannoma, even more commonly known as an acoustic neuroma. So a pretty rare benign brain tumor that exists on the vestibular nerve, and it would've cost my life had it not been treated.Eric Topol (02:28):So from what I gather, you saw an ENT physician, but that ENT physician was not really well versed in this condition, which is I guess a bit surprising. And then eventually you got to the right ENT physician in San Francisco. Is that right?Owen Tripp (02:49):Well, the first doctor was probably an internal medicine doctor, and I think it's fair to say that he had probably not seen many, if any cases. By the time I reached an ENT, they were interested in working me up for what's known as sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSHL), which is basically a fancy term for you lose hearing for a variety of possible pathologies and reasons, but you go through a process of differential diagnosis to understand what's actually going on. By the time that I reached that ENT, the audio tests had showed that I had significant hearing loss in my right ear. And what an MRI would confirm was this mass that I just described to you, which was quite large. It was already about a centimeter large and growing into the inner ear canal.Eric Topol (03:49):Yeah, so I read that your Stanford brain scan suggested it was about size of a plum and that you then got the call that you had this mass in your brainstem tumor. So obviously that's a delicate operation to undergo. So the first thing was getting a diagnosis and then the next thing was getting the right surgeon to work on your brain to resect this. So how did you figure out who was the right person? Because there's only a few thousand of these operations done every year, as I understand.Owen Tripp (04:27):That's exactly right. Yeah, very few. And without putting your listeners to sleep too early in our discussion, what I'll say is that there are a lot of ways that you can actually do this. There are very few cases, any approach really requires either shrinking or removing that tumor entirely. My size of tumor meant it was really only going to be a surgical approach, and there I had to decide amongst multiple potential approaches. And this is what's interesting, Eric, you started saying you wanted to talk about the patient experience. You have to understand that I'm somebody, while not a doctor, I lead a very large healthcare company. We provide millions of visits and services per year on very complex medical diagnoses down to more standard day-to-day fare. And so, being in the world of medical complexity was not daunting on the basics, but then I'm the patient and now I have to make a surgical treatment decision amongst many possible choices, and I was able to get multiple opinions.Owen Tripp (05:42):I got an opinion from the House clinic, which is closer to you in LA. This is really the place where they invented the surgical approach to treating these things. I also got an approach shared with me from the Mayo Clinic and one from UCSF and one from Stanford, and ultimately, I picked the Stanford team. And these are fascinating and delicate structures as you know that you're dealing with in the brain, but the surgery is a long surgery performed by multiple surgeons. It's such an exhausting surgery that as you're sort of peeling away that tumor that you need relief. And so, after a 13 hour surgery, multiple nights in the hospital and some significant training to learn how to walk and move and not lose my balance, I am as you see me today, but it was possible under one of the surgical approaches that I would've lost the use of the right side of my face, which obviously was not an option given what I given what I do.Eric Topol (06:51):Yeah, well, I know there had to be a tough rehab and so glad that you recovered well, and I guess you still don't have hearing in that one ear, right?Owen Tripp:That's right.Eric Topol:But otherwise, you're walking well, and you've completely recovered from what could have been a very disastrous type of, not just the tumor itself, but also the way it would be operated on. 13 hours is a long time to be in the operating room as a patient.Owen Tripp (07:22):You've got a whole team in there. You've got people testing nerve function, you've got people obviously managing the anesthesiology, which is sufficiently complex given what's involved. You've got a specialized ENT called a neurotologist. You've got the neurosurgeon who creates access. So it's quite a team that does these things.Eric Topol (07:40):Yeah, wow. Now, the reason I wanted to delve into this from your past is because I get a call or email or whatever contact every week at least one, is can you help me find the right doctor for such and such? And this has been going on throughout my career. I mean, when I was back in 20 years ago at Cleveland Clinic, the people on the board, I said, well, I wrote about it in one of my books. Why did you become a trustee on the board? And he said, so I could get access to the right doctor. And so, this is amazing. We live in an information era supposedly where people can get information about this being the most precious part, which is they want to get the right diagnosis, they want to get the right treatment or prevention, whatever, and they can't get it. And I'm finding this just extraordinary given that we can do deep research through several different AI models and get reports generated on whatever you want, but you can't get the right doctor. So now let's go over to what you're working on. This company Included Health. When did you start that?Owen Tripp (08:59):Well, I started the company that was known as Grand Rounds in 2011. And Grand Rounds still to this day, we've rebranded as Included Health had a very simple but powerful idea, one you just obliquely referred to, which is if we get people to higher quality medicine by helping them find the right level and quality of care, that two good things would happen. One, the sort of obvious one, patients would get better, they'd move on with their lives, they'd return to health. But two and critically that we would actually help the system overall with the cost burden of unnecessary, inappropriate and low quality care because the coda to the example you gave of people calling you looking for a physician referral, and you and I both know this, my guess is you've probably had to clean plenty of it up in your career is if you go to the wrong doctor, you don't get out of the problem. The problem just persists. And that patient is likely to bounce around like a ping pong ball until they find what they actually need. And that costs the payers of healthcare in this country a lot of money. So I started the company in 2011 to try to solve that problem.Eric Topol (10:14):Yeah, one example, a patient of mine who I've looked after for some 35 years contacted me and said, a very close friend of mine lives in the Palm Springs region and he has this horrible skin condition and he's tortured and he's been to six centers, UCSF, Stanford, Oregon Health Science, Eisenhower, UCLA, and he had a full workup and he can't sleep because he's itching all the time. His whole skin is exfoliating and cellulitis and he had biopsies everywhere. He’s put on all kinds of drugs, monoclonal antibodies. And I said to this patient of mine I said, I don't know, this is way out of my area. I checked at Scripps and turns out there was this kind of the Columbo of dermatology, he can solve any mystery. And the patient went to see him, and he was diagnosed within about a minute that he had scabies, and he was treated and completely recovered after having thousands and thousands of dollars of all these workups at these leading medical centers that you would expect could make a diagnosis of scabies.Owen Tripp (11:38):That’s a pretty common diagnosis.Eric Topol (11:40):Yeah. I mean you might expect it more in somebody who was homeless perhaps, but that doesn't mean it can't happen in anyone. And within the first few minutes he did a scrape and showed the patient under the microscope and made a definitive diagnosis and the patient to this day is still trying to pay all his bills for all these biopsies and drugs and whatnot, and very upset that he went through all this for over a year and he thought he wanted to die, it was so bad. Now, I had never heard of Included Health and you have now links with a third of the Fortune 100 companies. So what do you do wi

Eric Topol (00:05):Hello, it's Eric Topol from Ground Truths, and I've got some really exciting stuff to talk to you about today. And it's about the announcement for a new Center for pediatric CRISPR Cures. And I'm delight to introduce doctors Jennifer Doudna and Priscilla Chan. And so, first let me say this is amazing to see this thing going forward. It's an outgrowth of a New England Journal paper and monumental report on CRISPR in May. [See the below post for more context]Let me introduce first, Dr. Doudna. Jennifer is the Li Ka Shing Chancellor's Chair and a Professor in the departments of chemistry and of molecular and cell biology at the University of California Berkeley. She's also the subject of this book, one of my favorite books of all time, the Code Breaker. And as you know, the 2020 Nobel Prize laureate for her work in CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing, and she founded the Innovative Genomics Institute (IGI) back 10 years ago. So Jennifer, welcome.Jennifer Doudna (01:08):Thank you, Eric. Great to be here.Eric Topol (01:10):And now Dr. Priscilla Chan, who is the co-founder of the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (CZI) that also was started back in 2015. So here we are, a decade later, these two leaders. She is a pediatrician having trained at UCSF and is committed to the initiative which has as its mission statement, “to make it possible to cure, prevent, and manage all diseases in this century.” So today we're going to talk about a step closer to that. Welcome, Priscilla.Priscilla Chan (01:44):Thank you. Thanks for having me.Eric Topol (01:46):Alright, so I thought we'd start off by, how did you two get together? Have you known each other for over this past decade since you both got all your things going?Jennifer Doudna (01:56):Yes, we have. We've known each other for a while. And of course, I've admired the progress at the CZI on fundamental science. I was an advisor very early on and I think actually that's how we got to know each other. Right, Priscilla?Priscilla Chan (02:11):Yeah, that's right. We got to know each other then. And we've been crisscrossing paths. And I personally remember the day you won the Nobel Prize. It was in the heart of the pandemic and a lot of celebrations were happening over Zoom. And I grabbed my then 5-year-old and got onto the UCSF celebration and I was like, look, this is happening. And it was really cool for me and for my daughter.Eric Topol (02:46):Well, it's pretty remarkable convergence leading up to today's announcement, but I know Priscilla, that you've been active in this rare disease space, you've had at CZI a Rare As One Project. Maybe you could tell us a bit about that.Priscilla Chan (03:01):Yeah, so at CZI, we work on basic science research, and I think that often surprises people because they know that I'm a pediatrician. And so, they often think, oh, you must work in healthcare or healthcare delivery. And we've actually chosen very intentionally to work in basic science research. In part because my training as a pediatrician at UCSF. As you both know, UCSF is a tertiary coronary care center where we see very unusual and rare cases of pediatric presentations. And it was there where I learned how little we knew about rare diseases and diseases in general and how powerful patients were. And that research was the pipeline for hope and for new discoveries for these families that often otherwise don't have very much access to treatments or cures. They have a PDF that maybe describes what their child has. And so, I decided to invest in basic science through CZI, but always saw the power of bringing rare disease patient cohorts. One, because if you've ever met a parent of a child with rare disease, they are a force to be reckoned with. Two, they can make research so much better due to their insights as patients and patient advocates. And I think they close the distance between basic science and impact in patients. And so, we've been working on that since 2019 and has been a passion of ours.Eric Topol (04:40):Wow, that's great. Now Jennifer, this IGI that you founded a decade ago, it's doing all kinds of things that are even well beyond rare diseases. We recently spoke, I know on Ground Truths about things as diverse as editing the gut microbiome in asthma and potentially someday Alzheimer’s. But here you were very much involved at IGI with the baby KJ Muldoon. Maybe you could take us through this because this is such an extraordinary advance in the whole CRISPR Cures story.Jennifer Doudna (05:18):Yes, Eric. It's a very exciting story and we're very, very proud of the teamwork that went into making it possible to cure baby KJ of his very rare disease. And in brief, the story began back in August of last year when he was born with a metabolic disorder that prevented him from digesting protein, it's called a urea cycle disorder and rare, but extremely severe. And to the point where he was in the ICU and facing a very, very difficult prognosis. And so, fortunately his clinical team at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) reached out to Fyodor Urnov, who is the Director of Translational Medicine at the IGI here in the Bay Area. They teamed up and realized that they could quickly diagnose that child because we had an IRB approved here at the IGI that allowed us to collect patient samples and do diagnosis. So that was done.Jennifer Doudna (06:26):We created an off-the-shelf CRISPR therapy that would be targeted to the exact mutation that caused that young boy's disease. And then we worked with the FDA in Washington to make sure that we could very safely proceed with testing of that therapy initially in the lab and then ultimately in two different animal models. And then we opened a clinical trial that allowed that boy to be enrolled with, of course his parents' approval and for him to be dosed and the result was spectacular. And in fact, he was released from the hospital recently as a happy, healthy child, gaining lots of weight and looking very chunky. So it's really exciting.Eric Topol (07:16):It's so amazing. I don't think people necessarily grasp this. This timeline [see above] that we'll post with this is just mind boggling how you could, as you said Jennifer, in about six months to go from the birth and sequencing through cell specific cultures with the genome mutations through multiple experimental models with non-human primates even, looking at off-target effects, through the multiple FDA reviews and then dosing, cumulatively three dosing to save this baby's life. It really just amazing. Now that is a template. And before we go to this new Center, I just wanted to also mention not just the timeline of compression, which is unimaginable and the partnership that you've had at IGI with I guess Danaher to help manufacture, which is just another part of the story. But also the fact that you're not just even with CRISPR 1.0 as being used in approvals previously for sickle cell and β-thalassemia, but now we're talking about base editing in vivo in the body using mRNA delivery. So maybe you could comment on that, Jennifer.Jennifer Doudna (08:38):Yeah, very good point. So yeah, we used a version of CRISPR that was created by David Liu at the Broad Institute and published and available. And so, it was possible to create that, again, targeted to the exact mutation that caused baby KJ’s disease. And fortunately, there was also an off-the-shelf way to deliver it because we had access to lipid nanoparticles that were developed for other purposes including vaccinations. And the type of disease that KJ suffered from is one that is treatable by editing cells in the liver, which is where the lipid nanoparticle naturally goes. So there were definitely some serendipity here, but it was amazing how all of these pieces were available. We just had to pull them together to create this therapy.Eric Topol (09:30):Yeah, no, it is amazing. So that I think is a great substrate for starting a new Center. And so, maybe back to you Priscilla, as to what your vision was when working with Jennifer and IGI to go through with this.Priscilla Chan (09:45):I think the thing that's incredibly exciting, you mentioned that at CZI our mission is to cure, prevent, and manage all disease. And when we talked about this 10 years ago, it felt like this far off idea, but every day it seems closer and closer. And I think the part that's super exciting about this is the direct connection between the basic science that's happening in CRISPR and the molecular and down to the nucleotide understanding of these mutations and the ability to correct them. And I think many of us, our imaginations have included this possibility, but it's very exciting that it has happened with baby KJ and CHOP. And we need to be able to do the work to understand how we can treat more patients this way, how to understand the obstacles, unblock them, streamline the process, bring down the cost, so that we better understand this pathway for treatment, as well as to increasingly democratize access to this type of platform. And so, our hope is to be able to do that. Take the work and inspiration that IGI and the team at CHOP have done and continue to push forward and to look at more cases, look at more organ systems. We're going to be looking in addition to the liver, at the bone marrow and the immune system.Priscilla Chan (11:17):And to be able to really work through more of the steps so that we can bring this to more families and patients.Eric Topol (11:30):Yeah, well it's pretty remarkable because here you have incurable ultra-rare diseases. If you can help these babies, just think of what this could do in a much broader context. I mean there a lot of common diseases have their roots with some of these very rare ones. So how do you see going forward, Jennifer, as to where you UC Berkeley, Gladstone, UCSF. I'm envious of you all up there in Northern California I have to say, will pull this off. How will you get the first similar case to KJ Muld

“To navigate proof, we must reach into a thicket of errors and biases. We must confront monsters and embrace uncertainty, balancing — and rebalancing —our beliefs. We must seek out every useful fragment of data, gather every relevant tool, searching wider and climbing further. Finding the good foundations among the bad. Dodging dogma and falsehoods. Questioning. Measuring. Triangulating. Convincing. Then perhaps, just perhaps, we'll reach the truth in time.”—Adam KucharskiMy conversation with Professor Kucharski on what constitutes certainty and proof in science (and other domains), with emphasis on many of the learnings from Covid. Given the politicization of science and A.I.’s deepfakes and power for blurring of truth, it’s hard to think of a topic more important right now.Audio file (Ground Truths can also be downloaded on Apple Podcasts and Spotify)Eric Topol (00:06):Hello, it's Eric Topol from Ground Truths and I am really delighted to welcome Adam Kucharski, who is the author of a new book, Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty. He’s a distinguished mathematician, by the way, the first mathematician we've had on Ground Truths and a person who I had the real privilege of getting to know a bit through the Covid pandemic. So welcome, Adam.Adam Kucharski (00:28):Thanks for having me.Eric Topol (00:30):Yeah, I mean, I think just to let everybody know, you're a Professor at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and also noteworthy you won the Adams Prize, which is one of the most impressive recognitions in the field of mathematics. This is the book, it's a winner, Proof and there's so much to talk about. So Adam, maybe what I'd start off is the quote in the book that captivates in the beginning, “life is full of situations that can reveal remarkably large gaps in our understanding of what is true and why it's true. This is a book about those gaps.” So what was the motivation when you undertook this very big endeavor?Adam Kucharski (01:17):I think a lot of it comes to the work I do at my day job where we have to deal with a lot of evidence under pressure, particularly if you work in outbreaks or emerging health concerns. And often it really pushes the limits, our methodology and how we converge on what's true subject to potential revision in the future. I think particularly having a background in math’s, I think you kind of grow up with this idea that you can get to these concrete, almost immovable truths and then even just looking through the history, realizing that often isn't the case, that there's these kind of very human dynamics that play out around them. And it's something I think that everyone in science can reflect on that sometimes what convinces us doesn't convince other people, and particularly when you have that kind of urgency of time pressure, working out how to navigate that.Eric Topol (02:05):Yeah. Well, I mean I think these times of course have really gotten us to appreciate, particularly during Covid, the importance of understanding uncertainty. And I think one of the ways that we can dispel what people assume they know is the famous Monty Hall, which you get into a bit in the book. So I think everybody here is familiar with that show, Let's Make a Deal and maybe you can just take us through what happens with one of the doors are unveiled and how that changes the mathematics.Adam Kucharski (02:50):Yeah, sure. So I think it is a problem that's been around for a while and it's based on this game show. So you've got three doors that are closed. Behind two of the doors there is a goat and behind one of the doors is a luxury car. So obviously, you want to win the car. The host asks you to pick a door, so you point to one, maybe door number two, then the host who knows what's behind the doors opens another door to reveal a goat and then ask you, do you want to change your mind? Do you want to switch doors? And a lot of the, I think intuition people have, and certainly when I first came across this problem many years ago is well, you've got two doors left, right? You've picked one, there's another one, it's 50-50. And even some quite well-respected mathematicians.Adam Kucharski (03:27):People like Paul Erdős who was really published more papers than almost anyone else, that was their initial gut reaction. But if you work through all of the combinations, if you pick this door and then the host does this, and you switch or not switch and work through all of those options. You actually double your chances if you switch versus sticking with the door. So something that's counterintuitive, but I think one of the things that really struck me and even over the years trying to explain it is convincing myself of the answer, which was when I first came across it as a teenager, I did quite quickly is very different to convincing someone else. And even actually Paul Erdős, one of his colleagues showed him what I call proof by exhaustion. So go through every combination and that didn't really convince him. So then he started to simulate and said, well, let's do a computer simulation of the game a hundred thousand times. And again, switching was this optimal strategy, but Erdős wasn't really convinced because I accept that this is the case, but I'm not really satisfied with it. And I think that encapsulates for a lot of people, their experience of proof and evidence. It's a fact and you have to take it as given, but there's actually quite a big bridge often to really understanding why it's true and feeling convinced by it.Eric Topol (04:41):Yeah, I think it's a fabulous example because I think everyone would naturally assume it's 50-50 and it isn't. And I think that gets us to the topic at hand. What I love, there's many things I love about this book. One is that you don't just get into science and medicine, but you cut across all the domains, law, mathematics, AI. So it's a very comprehensive sweep of everything about proof and truth, and it couldn't come at a better time as we'll get into. Maybe just starting off with math, the term I love mathematical monsters. Can you tell us a little bit more about that?Adam Kucharski (05:25):Yeah, this was a fascinating situation that emerged in the late 19th century where a lot of math’s, certainly in Europe had been derived from geometry because a lot of the ancient Greek influence on how we shaped things and then Newton and his work on rates of change and calculus, it was really the natural world that provided a lot of inspiration, these kind of tangible objects, tangible movements. And as mathematicians started to build out the theory around rates of change and how we tackle these kinds of situations, they sometimes took that intuition a bit too seriously. And there was some theorems that they said were intuitively obvious, some of these French mathematicians. And so, one for example is this idea of you how things change smoothly over time and how you do those calculations. But what happened was some mathematicians came along and showed that when you have things that can be infinitely small, that intuition didn't necessarily hold in the same way.Adam Kucharski (06:26):And they came up with these examples that broke a lot of these theorems and a lot of the establishments at the time called these things monsters. They called them these aberrations against common sense and this idea that if Newton had known about them, he never would've done all of his discovery because they're just nuisances and we just need to get rid of them. And there's this real tension at the core of mathematics in the late 1800s where some people just wanted to disregard this and say, look, it works for most of the time, that's good enough. And then others really weren't happy with this quite vague logic. They wanted to put it on much sturdier ground. And what was remarkable actually is if you trace this then into the 20th century, a lot of these monsters and these particularly in some cases functions which could almost move constantly, this constant motion rather than our intuitive concept of movement as something that's smooth, if you drop an apple, it accelerates at a very smooth rate, would become foundational in our understanding of things like probability, Einstein's work on atomic theory. A lot of these concepts where geometry breaks down would be really important in relativity. So actually, these things that we thought were monsters actually were all around us all the time, and science couldn't advance without them. So I think it's just this remarkable example of this tension within a field that supposedly concrete and the things that were going to be shunned actually turn out to be quite important.Eric Topol (07:53):It's great how you convey how nature isn't so neat and tidy and things like Brownian motion, understanding that, I mean, just so many things that I think fit into that general category. In the legal, we won't get into too much because that's not so much the audience of Ground Truths, but the classic things about innocent and until proven guilty and proof beyond reasonable doubt, I mean these are obviously really important parts of that overall sense of proof and truth. We're going to get into one thing I'm fascinated about related to that subsequently and then in science. So before we get into the different types of proof, obviously the pandemic is still fresh in our minds and we're an endemic with Covid now, and there are so many things we got wrong along the way of uncertainty and didn't convey that science isn't always evolving search for what is the truth. There's plenty no shortage of uncertainty at any moment. So can you recap some of the, you did so much work during the pandemic and obviously some of it's in the book. What were some of the major things that you took out of proof and truth from the pandemic?Adam Kucharski (09:14):I think it was almost this story of two hearts because on the one hand, science was the thing that got us where we are today. The reas

Thanks to so many of you who joined our live conversation with Devi Sridhar! Professor Devi Sridhar is the Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh. Over the past 2 decades she has become one of the world’s leading authorities and advisors for promoting global health. Her new book —How No to Die Too Soon—provides a unique outlook for extending healthspan with a global perspective admixed with many personal stories. We talked about lifestyle factors with lessons from Japan (on diet) and the Netherlands (on physical activity), ultra-processed foods, air pollution and water quality, the prevention model in Finland, guns, inequities, the US situation for biomedical research and public health agency defunding, and much more. Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe

My conversation with Matthew Walker, PhD on faculty at UC Berkeley where he is a professor of neuroscience and psychology, the founder and director of the Center for Human Sleep Science, and has a long history of seminal contributions on sleep science and health. Audio File (also downloadable at Apple Podcast and Spotify)“Sleep is a non-negotiablebiological state required for the maintenance of human life . . . our needsfor sleep parallel those for air, food, and water.”—Grandner and FernandezEric Topol (00:07):Hello, it's Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I am really delighted to welcome Matt Walker, who I believe has had more impact on sleep health than anyone I know. It's reflected by the fact that he is a Professor at UC Berkeley, heads up the center that he originated for Human Sleep Science. He wrote a remarkable book back in 2017, Why We Sleep, and also we'll link to that as well as the TED Talk of 2019. Sleep is Your Superpower with 24 million views. That's a lot of views here.Matt Walker:Striking, isn't it?Eric Topol:Wow. I think does reflect the kind of impact, you were onto the sleep story sooner, earlier than anyone I know. And what I wanted to do today was get to the updates because you taught us a lot back then and a lot of things have been happening in these years since. You're on it, of course, I think you have a podcast Sleep Diplomat, and you're obviously continued working on the science of sleep. But maybe the first thing I'd ask you about is in the last few years, what do you think has been, are there been any real changes or breakthroughs in the field?What Is New?Matt Walker (01:27):Yeah, I think there has been changes, and maybe we'll speak about one of them, which is the emergence of this brain cleansing system called the glymphatic system, but spreading that aside for potential future discussion. I would say that there are maybe at least two fascinating areas. The first is the broader impact of sleep on much more complex human social interactions. We think of sleep at maybe the level of the cell or systems or whole scale biology or even the entire organism. We forget that a lack of sleep, or at least the evidence suggests a lack of sleep will dislocate each other, one from the other. And there's been some great work by Dr. Eti Ben Simon for example, demonstrating that when you are sleep deprived, you become more asocial. So you basically become socially repellent. You want to withdraw, you become lonely. And what's also fascinating is that other people, even they don't know that you sleep deprived, they rate you as being less socially sort of attractive to engage with.Matt Walker (02:35):And after interacting with you, the sleep deprived individual, even though they don't know you're sleep deprived, they themselves walk away feeling more lonely themselves. So there is a social loneliness contagion that happens that a sleep deprived lonely individual can have almost a viral knock on effect that causes loneliness in another well-rested individual. And then that work spanned out and it started to demonstrate that another impact of a lack of sleep socially is that we stop wanting to help other people. And you think, well, helping behavior that's not really very impactful. Try to tell me of any major civilization that has not risen up through human cooperation and helping. There just isn't one. Human cooperative behavior is one of our innate traits as homo sapiens. And what they discovered is that when you are insufficiently slept, firstly, you don't wish to help other people. And you can see that at the individual level.Matt Walker (03:41):You can see it in groups. And then there was a great study again by Dr. Eti Ben Simon that demonstrated this at a national level because what she did was she looked at this wonderful manipulation of one hour of sleep that happens twice a year to 1.6 billion people. It's called daylight savings time at spring. Yeah, when you lose one hour of sleep opportunity. She looked at donations across the nation and sure enough, there was this big dent in donation giving in the sleepy Monday and Tuesday after the clock change. Because of that sleep, we become less willing to empathetically and selflessly help other individuals. And so, to me I think it's just a fascinating area. And then the other area I think is great, and I'm sorry I'm racing forward because I get so excited. But this work now looking at what we call genetic short sleepers and sort of idiots like me have been out there touting the importance of somewhere between seven to nine hours of sleep.Matt Walker (04:48):And once you get less than that, and we'll perhaps speak about that, you can see biological changes. But there is a subset of individuals who, and we've identified at least two different genes. One of them is what we call the DEC2 gene. And it seems to allow individuals to sleep about five hours, maybe even a little bit less and show no impairment whatsoever. Now we haven't tracked these individuals across the lifespan to truly understand does it lead to a higher mortality risk. But so far, they don't implode like you perhaps or I would do when you are limited to this anemic diet of five hours of sleep. They hang in there just fine. And I think philosophically what that tells me, and by the way, for people who are listening thinking, gosh, I think I'm probably one of those people. Statistically, I think you are more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than you are to have the DEC2 gene. Think about what tells us, Eric. It tells us that there is a moment in biology in the evolution of this thing called the sleep physiological need that has changed such that mother nature has found a genetic way to ZIP file sleep.Matt Walker (06:14):You can essentially compress sleep from seven to nine hour need, down to five to six hour need. To me, that is absolutely fascinating. So now the race is on, what are the mechanisms that control this? How do we understand them? I'm sure much to my chagrin, society would like to then say, okay, is there a pill that I can take to basically ZIP file my own sleep and then it becomes an arms race in my mind, which is then all of a sudden six hours becomes the new eight hours and then everyone is saying, well, six hours is my need. Well I'll go to four hours and then it's this arms race of de-escalation of sleep. Anyway, I'm going on and on, does that help give you a sense of two of the what I feel the more fascinating areas?Eric Topol (07:01):Absolutely. When I saw the other recent report on the short sleep gene variant and thought about what the potential of that would be with respect to potential drug development or could you imagine genome editing early in life that you don't need any sleep? I mean crazy stuff.Matt Walker (07:19):It was amazing.Glymphatics and Deep Sleepfor more, see previous Ground Truths on this topic Eric Topol (07:22):No, the mechanism of course we have to work out and also what you mentioned regarding the social and the behavior engagement, all that sort of thing, it was just fascinating stuff. Now we touched on one thing early on to come back to the glymphatics these channels to get rid of the waste metabolites from the brain each night that might be considered toxic metabolites. We've learned a lot about those and of course there's some controversy about it. What are your thoughts?Matt Walker (07:55):Yeah, I think there's really quite comprehensive evidence suggesting that the brain has this cleansing system like the body has one the lymphatic system, the brain has one the glymphatic system named after these glial cells that make it up. And I think there's been evidence from multiple groups across multiple different species types, from mouse models all the way up to human models suggesting that there is a state dependent control of the brain cleansing system, which is a fancy way of saying if you are awake in light NREM, deep NREM or perhaps you're just quiet and you are resting in your wakefulness, the glymphatic system is not switched on at the same rate across all of those different brain states. And I think the overwhelming evidence so far using different techniques in different species from different groups is that sleep is a preferential time. It's not an exclusive time, it's a preferential time when that brain cleansing system kicks into gear because as some people have, I think argued, and you could say it's hyperbolic, but wakefulness is low level from a biochemicals perspective, it's low level brain damage and sleep is therefore your sanitary salvation that combat that biochemical cascade.Matt Walker (09:15):So in other words, a better way of putting it would be, sleep is the price that you pay for wakefulness in some ways. And I think there was a recent controversial study that came out in 2022 or 2023, and they actually suggested quite the opposite. They said using their specific imaging methods, they found that the sort of clearance, the amount of cerebral spinal fluid, which is what washes through the brain to cleanse the toxins, the rate of that flow of cerebral spinal fluid was highest during wakefulness and lowest during deep NREM sleep, the exact opposite of what others have found. Now, I think the defendants of the glymphatic sleep dependent hypothesis pushed back and said, well, if you look at the imaging methods. Firstly, they’re nonstandard. Secondly, they were measuring the cerebral spinal flow in an artificial way because they were actually perfusing solutions through the brain rather than naturally letting it flow and therefore the artificial forcing of fluid changed the prototypical result you would get.Matt Walker (10:27):And they also argued that the essentially kind of the sampling rate, so how quickly are you taking snapshots of the cerebral spinal fluid flow. Those were different and they were probably missing some of the sleep dependent slow oscillations that seemed to sort of drive that pulsatil

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Audio FileGround Truths can also be found on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and YouTube.The UK is the world leader in human genomics, and laid the foundation for advancing medicine with the UK Biobank, Genomes England and now Our Future Health (w/ 5 million participants). Sir John Bell is a major force in driving and advising these and many other initiatives. After 22 years as the Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford he left in 2024 to be President of the Ellison Institute of Technology. Professor Bell has been duly recognized in the UK: knighted in 2015 and appointed Companion of Honor in 2023. In our conversation, you will get a sense for how EIT will be transformational for using A.I. and life science for promoting human health.Transcript with audio links Eric Topol (00:06):Hello, this is Eric Topol from Ground Truths. And I'm really delighted to welcome today, Sir John Bell who had an extraordinary career as a geneticist, immunologist, we'll talk about several initiatives he's been involved with during his long tenure at University of Oxford, recently became head of the Ellison Institute of Technology (EIT) in the UK. So welcome, John.Sir John Bell (00:30):Thanks, Eric. Thanks very much for having me.Eric Topol (00:34):Well, I think it's just extraordinary the contributions that you have made and continue to make to advance medicine, and I thought what we could do is get into that. I mean, what's interesting, you have had some notable migrations over your career, I think starting in Canada, at Stanford, then over as Rhodes Scholar in Oxford. And then you of course had a couple of decades in a very prestigious position, which as I understand was started in 1546 by King Henry VII, and served as the Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford. Do I have that right?Sir John Bell (01:11):It was actually Henry VIII, but you were close.Eric Topol (01:14):Henry VIII, that's great. Yeah. Okay, good. Well, that's a pretty notable professorship. And then of course in recent times you left to head up this pretty formidable new institute, which is something that's a big trend going on around the world, particularly in the US and we'll talk about. So maybe we can start with the new thing. Tell us more about the Ellison Institute of Technology (EIT), if you will.Sir John Bell (01:47):Yeah. So as you know, Larry Ellison has been one of the great tech entrepreneurs focused really on developing terrific databases over his career and through Oracle, which is the company that he founded. And Larry is really keen to try and give back something substantial to the world, which is based on science and technology. So he and I did quite a bit together over the Covid pandemic. He and I talked a lot about what we're doing and so on. He came to visit afterwards and he had, I think he decided that the right way to make his contributions would be to set up an institute that would be using the state-of-the-art science and technology with a lot of AI and machine learning, but also some of the other modern tools to address the major problems in healthcare, in food security, in green energy and climate change and in global governance.Sir John Bell (02:49):So anyway, he launched this about 18 months ago. He approached me to ask whether I would run it. He wanted to set it up outside Oxford, and he wanted to do something which is a bit different than others. And that is his view was that we needed to try and create solutions to these problems which are commercially viable and not all the solutions are going to be commercially viable, but where you can create those, you make them sustainable. So the idea is to make sure that we create solutions that people want to buy, and then if they buy them, you can create a sustainable solution to those issues. So we are actually a company, but we are addressing many of the same problems that the big foundations are addressing. And the big issues that you and I talk about in health, for example, are all on our list. So we're kind of optimistic as to where this will go and Larry's supporting the project and we're going to build out an institute here which will have about 5,000 people in it, and we'll be, I think a pretty exciting new addition to the science and technology ecosystem globally.Eric Topol (04:02):Well, I know the reverberations and the excitement is palpable and some of the colleagues I've spoken to, not just in England, but of course all over the world. So congratulations on that. It was a big move for you to leave the hardcore academics. And the other thing I wanted to ask you, John, is you had distinguished your career in immunology, in genetics, type 1 diabetes and other conditions, autoimmune conditions, and now you've really diversified, as you described with these different areas of emphasis at the new institute. Is that more fun to do it or do you have deputies that you can assign to things like climate change in other areas?Sir John Bell (04:50):Trust me, Eric, I'm not making any definitive decisions about areas I know nothing about, but part of this is about how do you set up leadership, run a team, get the right people in. And I have to say one of the really interesting things about the institute is we've been able to recruit some outstanding people across all those domains. And as you know, success is almost all dependent on people. So we're really pretty optimistic we're going to have a significant impact. And of course, we also want to take risks because not a lot of point in us doing stuff that everybody else is doing. So we're going to be doing some things that are pretty way out there and some of them will fail, so we are just going to get used to trying to make sure we get a few of them across the finish line. But the other thing is that, and you've experienced this too, you never get too old to learn. I mean, I'm sucking up stuff that I never thought I would ever learn about, which is fun actually, and really marvel.Eric Topol (05:55):It's fantastic. I mean, you've really broadened and it's great that you have the runway to get these people on board and I think you're having a big building that's under construction?Sir John Bell (06:07):Yeah, we've got the original building that Larry committed to is about 330,000 square feet of space. I mean, this is completely amazing, but we are of course to accommodate up to 5,000 people, we're going to need more than that. So we are looking at a much wider campus here that'll involve more than just that building. I think we'll end up with several million square feet of space by the time we're finished. So mean, it's a really big project, but we've already made progress in some domains to try and get projects and the beginnings of companies on the road to try and solve some of the big problems. So we're quite excited about it.Eric Topol (06:49):Now you, I assume it's pretty close to Oxford, and will you have some kind of inter interactions that are substantial?Sir John Bell (06:58):Yeah, so the university's been terrific about this actually, because of course most universities would say, well, why don't you do it inside the university and just give us the money and it'll all be fine. So of course Larry. Larry wasn't born yesterday, so I said, well, thank you very much, but I think we'll probably do this nearby. But the university also realized this is a really exciting opportunity for them and we've got a really good relationship with them. We've signed an agreement with them as to who will work where. We've agreed not to steal a lot of their staff. We're going to be bringing new people into the ecosystem. Some of the university people will spend some time with us and sometime in the university, so that will help. But we're also bringing quite a few new people into the setting. So the university has been really positive. And I think one of the things that's attractive to the university, and you'll be familiar with this problem in the UK, is that we're quite good. The discovery science here is pretty good.Sir John Bell (08:06):And we do startups now at scale. So Oxford does lots of little startup companies in the biotech space and all the rest of it, but we never scale any of these companies because there isn't the depth of capital for scaling capital to get these things scaled. And so, in a way what we're trying to do here at Ellison actually avoids that problem because Larry knows how to scale companies, and we've got the financial support now. If we have things that are really successful, we can build the full stack solution to some of these problems. So I think the university is really intrigued as to how we might do that. We're going to have to bring some people in that know how to do that and build billion dollar companies, but it's sufficiently attractive. We've already started to recruit some really outstanding people. So as a way to change the UK system broadly, it's actually quite a good disruptive influence on the way the thing works to try and fix some of the fundamental problems.Eric Topol (09:07):I love that model and the ability that you can go from small startups to really transformative companies have any impact. It fits in well with the overall objectives, I can see that. The thing that also is intriguing regarding this whole effort is that in parallel we've learned your influence. The UK is a genomics world leader without any question and no coincidence that that's been your area of emphasis in your career. So we've watched these three initiatives that I think you were involved in the UK Biobank, which has had more impact than any cohort ever assembled. Every day there's another paper using that data that's coming out. There's Genomes England, and then now Our Future Health, which a lot of people don't know about here, which is well into the 5 million people enrollment. Can you tell us about, this is now 15 years ago plus when these were started, and of course now with a new one that's the bigg

Audio file, also on Apple and SpotifyTyler Cowen, Ph.D, is the Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University. He is the author of 17 books, most recently Talent.: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World. Tyler has been recognized as one of the most influential economists of the past decade. He initiated and directs the philanthropic project Emergent Ventures, writes a blog Marginal Revolution, and a podcast Conversations With Tyler, and also writes columns for The Free Press." He is writing a new book (and perhaps his last) on Mentors. “Maybe AGI [Artificial General Intelligence] is like porn — I know it when I see it. And I’ve seen it.”—Tyler CowenOur conversation on acquiring information, A.I., A.G.I., the NIH, the assault on science, the role of doctors in the A.I. era,, the meaning of life, books of the future, and much more.Transcript with linksEric Topol (00:06):Well, hello. This is Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I am really thrilled today to have the chance to have a conversation with Tyler Cowen, who is, when you look up polymath in the dictionary, you might see a picture of him. He is into everything. And recently in the Economist magazine 1843, John Phipps wrote a great piece profile, the man who wants to know everything. And actually, I think there's a lot to that.Tyler Cowen (00:36):That's why we need longevity work, right?Eric Topol (00:39):Right. So he's written a number of books. How many books now, Tyler?Tyler Cowen:17, I'm not sure.Eric Topol:Only 17? And he also has a blog that's been going on for over 20 years, Marginal Revolution that he does with Alex Tabarrok.Tyler Cowen (00:57):Correct.Eric Topol (00:57):And yeah, and then Conversations with Tyler, a podcast, which I think an awful lot of people are tuned into that. So with that, I'm just thrilled to get a chance to talk with you because I used to think I read a lot, but then I learned about you.“Cowen calls himself “hyperlexic”. On a good day, he claims to read four or fivebooks. Secretly, I timed him at 30 seconds per page reading a dense tract byMartin Luther. “—John Phipps, The Economist’s 1843I've been reading more from the AIs lately and less from books. So I'll get one good book and ask the AI a lot of questions.Eric Topol (01:24):Yeah. Well, do you use NotebookLM for that?Tyler Cowen (01:28):No, just o3 from OpenAI at the moment, but a lot of the models are very good. Claude, there's others.Eric Topol (01:35):Yeah, yeah. No, I see how that's a whole different way to interrogate a book and it's great. And in fact, that gets me to a topic I was going to get to later, but I'll do it now. You're soon or you have already started writing for the Free Press with Barri Weiss.Tyler Cowen (01:54):That’s right, yes. I have a piece coming out later today. It's been about two weeks. It's been great so far.“Tyler Cowen has a mind unlike any I've ever encountered. In a single conversation, it’s not at all unusual for him to toggle between DeepSeek, GLP-1s, Haitian art, sacred Tibetan music, his favorite Thai spot in L.A., and LeBron James”—Bari WeissYeah, so that's interesting. I hadn't heard of it until I saw the announcement from Barri and I thought what was great about it is she introduced it. She said, “Tyler Cowen has a mind unlike any I've ever encountered. In a single conversation, it’s not at all unusual for him to toggle between DeepSeek, GLP-1s, Haitian art, sacred Tibetan music, his favorite Thai spot in L.A., and LeBron James. Now who could do that, right. So I thought, well, you know what? I need independent confirmation of that, that is as being a polymath. And then I saw Patrick Collison, who I know at Stripe and Arc Institute, “you can have a specific and detailed discussion with him about 17th-century Irish economic thinkers, or trends in African music or the history of nominal GDP targeting. I don't know anyone who can engage in so many domains at the depth he does.” So you're an information acquirer and one of the books you wrote, I love the title Infovore.Tyler Cowen (03:09):The Age of the Infovore, that’s right.Eric Topol (03:11):I mean, have people been using that term because you are emblematic of it?“You can have a specific and detailed discussion with him about 17th-century Irish economic thinkers, or trends in African music or the history of nominal GDP targeting. I don't know anyone who can engage in so many domains at the depth he does.”—Patrick CollisonIt was used on the internet at some obscure site, and I saw it and I fell in love with that word, and I thought I should try to popularize it, but it doesn't come from me, but I think I am the popularizer of it.Yeah, well, if anybody was ingesting more information and being able to work with it. That's what I didn't realize about you, Tyler, is restaurants and basketball and all these other fine arts, very impressive. Now, one of the topics I wanted to get into you is I guess related to a topic you've written about fair amount, which is the great stagnation, and right now we're seeing issues like an attack on science. And in the past, you've written about how you want to raise the social status of scientists. So how do you see this current, I would even characterize as a frontal assault on science?Tyler Cowen (04:16):Well, I'm very worried about current Trump administration policies. They change so frequently and so unpredictably, it's a little hard to even describe what they always are. So in that sense, it's a little hard to criticize them, but I think they're scaring away talent. They might scare away funding and especially the biomedical sciences, the fixed costs behind a lot of lab work, clinical trials, they're so high that if you scare money away, it does not come back very readily or very quickly. So I think the problem is biggest perhaps for a lot of the biomedical sciences. I do think a lot of reform there has been needed, and I hope somehow the Trump policies evolve to that sort of reform. So I think the NIH has become too high bound and far too conservative, and they take too long to give grants, and I don't like how the overhead system has been done. So there's plenty of room for improvement, but I don't see so far at least that the efforts have been constructive. They've been mostly destructive.Eric Topol (05:18):Yeah, I totally agree. Rather than creative destruction it’s just destruction and it's unfortunate because it seems to be haphazard and reckless to me at least. We of course, like so many institutions rely on NIH funding for the work, but I agree that reform is fine as long as it's done in a very thought out, careful way, so we can eke out the most productivity for the best investment. Now along with that, you started Emergent Ventures where you're funding young talent.Tyler Cowen (05:57):That's right. That's a philanthropic fund. And we now have slightly over 1000 winners. They're not all young, I'd say they're mostly young and a great number of them want to go into the biomedical sciences or have done so. And this is part of what made me realize what an incredible influx of talent we're seeing into those areas. I'm not sure this is widely appreciated by the world. I'm sure you see it. I also see how much of that talent actually is coming from Canada, from Ontario in particular, and I've just become far more optimistic about computational biology and progress in biology and medical cures, fixes, whatever you want to call it, extending lives. 10 years ago, I was like, yeah, who knows? A lot of things looked pretty stuck. Then we had a number of years where life expectancy was falling, and now I think we're on the verge of a true golden age.Eric Topol (06:52):I couldn't agree with you more on that. And I know some of the people that you funded like Anne Wylie who developed a saliva test for Covid out of Yale. But as you say, there's so many great young and maybe not so young scientists all over, Canada being one great reservoir. And now of course I'm worried that we're seeing emigration rather than more immigration of this talent. Any thoughts about that?Tyler Cowen (07:21):Well, the good news is this, I'm in contact with young people almost every day, often from other countries. They still want to come to the United States. I would say I sign an O-1 letter for someone about once a week, and at least not yet has the magic been dissipated. So I'm less pessimistic than some people are, but I absolutely do see the dangers. We’re just the biggest market, the freest place we have by far the most ambitious people. I think that's actually the most significant factor. And young people sense that, and they just want to come here and there's not really another place they can go that will fit them.Eric Topol (08:04):Yeah, I mean one of the things as you've probably noted is there's these new forces that are taking on big shouldering. In fact, Patrick Collison with Arc Institute and Chan Zuckerberg for their institute and others like that, where the work you're doing with Emergent Ventures, you're supporting important projects, talents, and if this whole freefall in NIH funding and other agency funding continues, it looks like we may have to rely more on that, especially if we're going to attract some talent from outside. I don't know how else we're going to make. You're absolutely right about how we are such a great destination and great collaborations and mentors and all that history, but I'm worried that it could be in kind of a threatened mode, if you will.Tyler Cowen (08:59):I hope AI lowers costs. As you probably know at Arc, they had Greg Brockman come in for some number of months and he's one of the people, well, he helped build up Stripe, but he also was highly significant in OpenAI behind the GPT-4 model. And to have Greg Brockman at your institute doing AI for what, six months, that's a massive acceleration that actually no university had the wisdom to do, and Arc did. So I think we're seeing

In our divided world we face or avoid conflicts on a frequent basis. I turned to Bob Bordone and Joel Salinas to find out the best strategies to deal with these, including having them take on a mock conflict between each other on the merits of Covid research.Audio fileYou can also find this on Spotify and Apple podcasts with Ground Truths.The video is also posted on YouTubeTranscript with Audio LinksEric Topol (00:06):Well, hello. It's Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and we're going to get into a new book called Conflict Resilience: Negotiating Disagreement Without Giving Up or Giving In, and we're lucky to have its two authors, Bob Bordone, who is a Senior Fellow at Harvard Law School, and Joel Salinas, who is a physician, neurologist, a clinician scientist at NYU. So welcome both Bob and Joel.Bob Bordone and Joel Salinas (00:34):Thank you for having us. Yeah, looking forward to the conversation.Eric Topol (00:37):Yeah. So first, how did you guys get together? This is a pretty diverse, you got law and medicine, usually they don't talk to each other very much.Bob Bordone (00:46):Well, we were very fortunate. I mean, we basically were friends, but part of that friendship, I think emerged from work that I do around conflict issues in the Mass General system and then just the larger, bigger Mass General, Harvard community. Yeah, so this began really as a friendship where we were each swimming in very different waters, but then as we would start to talk, we realized there was a lot of connection and maybe the possibility to bring two different disciplines together in a way that might be practically useful and make an impact. And even when we started writing this, which was during Covid, what seemed to be some pretty polarizing times that were unlikely to resolve by the time the book would come out.Eric Topol (01:44):Yeah, well you sure hit it with the divisiveness and the polarized world that we live in is perhaps worse than ever, certainly in all my years, and probably long before then as well. So this topic of resilience, it's a very interesting concept because some people might think of resilience as just being tough. So go into a conflict and just go heavy tough. That obviously is not what you're writing about. And I guess maybe we can start off, what was the goal here? Obviously, there's other books that have addressed this topic, I'm sure, but yours is somewhat unique in many respects because it brings in the science of it and many strategies perhaps that have never been developed. But when you got together, what was the mission that you set out to do?Joel Salinas (02:38):Yeah, well maybe I can start out and then you can add on. So my research has been all around understanding how social relationships influenced brain health, and one of the things that I was seeing was social isolation and loneliness had been steadily increasing. Want to figure out what kind of interventions or what are the factors that are involved here? And I think one of the things that has stood out is just the difficulty with being able to navigate conflict in different contexts. And so, the idea around conflict resilience is really, even though there's been lots of books on what to say and what specific tactics to use, I think that there was this skillset around just being able to sit with the discomfort of that disagreement, which will ultimately help make it much more useful to take on those tactics. One way to think about it, if it's like all these tactics are like learning how to cook with a set of recipes in the kitchen, what we're really proposing here is that you also need to be able to stand the heat of the kitchen to even be able to cook.Eric Topol (03:47):Okay. Go ahead, Bob.Bob Bordone (03:49):Yeah, and I would say I was starting to write about my first kind of piece on this topic where I use the word conflict resilience was in 2018, and it really came from an observed dynamic that I was seeing in my teaching of Harvard Law School students. I was on the admissions committee, I'd been on the admissions committee for many years. I knew that we worked very hard and were quite successful in fact, at bringing together a very diverse student body, including politically. And people sometimes maybe think of elite law schools as being very progressive. But Harvard Law School, the biggest student organization is actually the Federalists, which is the conservative students. And despite that effort, what I noticed in the classroom was a reduction in conversation, diversity of viewpoint across the board, interesting classrooms became boring. And even though I was teaching around conflict and negotiation and difficult conversations, I would read in students' journals things like, I want to avoid conflict or I don't want to get into it.Bob Bordone (04:59):And so, it occurred to me that quite a part, as Joel said, from any skills, if we don't develop this capacity to sit with disagreement, then we will never get to problem solving. I'm in favor of problem solving. But this paper on conflict resilience, its original title was called Against Problem Solving. Mostly because I thought that if we had opened the possibility of problem solving as a precondition for entering the room, then we might never enter the room, particularly if we've told the demonized and dehumanized story about them. And so, that somehow we had to make the case that sitting with the discomfort of the disagreement, even if it didn't mean problem solving, although we hope for that, even if we didn't mean that it was worthwhile and it was important. And so, part of what was really attractive to me about joining up with Joel is that he just brought all of this brain science aspect to it that I had this kind of teaching and kind of academic in the negotiation and dispute resolution research experience, but couldn't bring to bear the kind of brain science parts of, well, what is going on in our brain when we do want to run or when we get into that really unproductive battle.Eric Topol (06:27):Yeah, I agree that the unique part here is that whole scaffolding with the neuroscience, the behavioral science, and those five Fs that you mentioned. You alluded to fight, flight, freeze, fawn, or fester. Yeah, so avoidance of conflict has kind of been the default for many people now because we have political divides, we have anti-science versus pro-science divides and on and on. There's a quote in the book that I thought we'd start off with because it really lays the groundwork from you both. “The biggest hidden barrier to being conflict resilient stems from the inability or unwillingness to face and sit with our own internal conflicts - the negotiations between our divided and sometimes contradictory “selves.” Even more surprising is that although there are dozens of self-help books on negotiation and conflict resolution, almost none of them spend any meaningful time on this critical intrapersonal barrier to handing conflict.” So maybe Joel, maybe start you off here. I guess you were bullied as a kid, and maybe that gives you a little background here. Joel, tell us about that if you would.Bob Bordone (07:46):Hey, Eric. On our bad days sometimes I probably inadvertently bully Joel still today, but he's pretty resilient now.Joel Salinas (07:53):Yeah, I'm a Teflon. So I think I am generally conflict of what an individual, and I think a lot of listeners and viewers can relate with that experience. And I think that also kind of speaks to some of the neuroscience that comes into this, which is that our brain has really evolved to be a fortune telling machine. It takes all of our past experiences, turns them into memories, and then makes projections about what's going to happen. And this projection or prediction of what's going to happen might as well be reality for our brain's sake. And so, if we had really negative experiences with conflict in the past growing up, whether through our families or the schoolyard or others, there'll be likely a very negative charge of negative emotional charge that comes with that. And what that does is that it increases the chances that you'll trigger this system for salience and arousal, which then sets off the alarms essentially in your body that then creates these fight or flight type responses where you're more likely to fall back on these really reflexive behaviors to make the bad thing less bad.Joel Salinas (09:08):And when you do that, whether it's through avoiding or to blowing through conflict like a battering ram that then trains your brain to assign some kind of a reward using the orbital frontal cortex, a system that kind of keeps tabs over how much reward you get for a behavior, it makes it much more likely that you'll do it again. And so, we from a very young age, develop a propensity to either avoid conflict or tackle it. And it varies depending on the context and how you're feeling, but it just makes it much, much harder to be able to bring on a much more thoughtful and deliberative approach to conflict.Eric Topol (09:49):Yeah, I mean, I think one of the salient points is that avoiding the conflict can make things worse. And as you described that it's not, I would've thought that there are some people who are just innately gifted to being diplomatic and artful about having to deal with the conflict issue and others, there's just no hope. But in fact, it can be acquired. And you alluded to this kind of neuroplasticity, the brain and you advocate for chair work. Can you tell us about chair work, because that's something I wouldn't have thought would help in this manner.Bob Bordone (10:30):Sure. I mean, I'll say a little bit work about that. A big part of this chair work idea, frankly, is influenced by work in internal family systems. And I was very fortunate early in my career, even though I was at teaching at law school to start partnering with some folks who did IFS work, they call it peace work often. But the chair work is really identifying s

“Eventually, my dream would be to simulate a virtual cell.”—Demis HassabisThe aspiration to build the virtual cell is considered to be equivalent to a moonshot for digital biology. Recently, 42 leading life scientists published a paper in Cell on why this is so vital, and how it may ultimately be accomplished. This conversation is with 2 of the authors, Charlotte Bunne, now at EPFL and Steve Quake, a Professor at Stanford University, who heads up science at the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative The audio (above) is available on iTunes and Spotify. The full video is linked here, at the top, and also can be found on YouTube.TRANSCRIPT WITH LINKS TO AUDIO Eric Topol (00:06):Hello, it's Eric Topol with Ground Truths and we've got a really hot topic today, the virtual cell. And what I think is extraordinarily important futuristic paper that recently appeared in the journal Cell and the first author, Charlotte Bunne from EPFL, previously at Stanford’s Computer Science. And Steve Quake, a young friend of mine for many years who heads up the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative (CZI) as well as a professor at Stanford. So welcome, Charlotte and Steve.Steve Quake (00:42):Thanks, Eric. It's great to be here.Charlotte Bunne:Thanks for having me.Eric Topol (00:45):Yeah. So you wrote this article that Charlotte, the first author, and Steve, one of the senior authors, appeared in Cell in December and it just grabbed me, “How to build the virtual cell with artificial intelligence: Priorities and opportunities.” It's the holy grail of biology. We're in this era of digital biology and as you point out in the paper, it's a convergence of what's happening in AI, which is just moving at a velocity that's just so extraordinary and what's happening in biology. So maybe we can start off by, you had some 42 authors that I assume they congregated for a conference or something or how did you get 42 people to agree to the words in this paper?Steve Quake (01:33):We did. We had a meeting at CZI to bring community members together from many different parts of the community, from computer science to bioinformatics, AI experts, biologists who don't trust any of this. We wanted to have some real contrarians in the mix as well and have them have a conversation together about is there an opportunity here? What's the shape of it? What's realistic to expect? And that was sort of the genesis of the article.Eric Topol (02:02):And Charlotte, how did you get to be drafting the paper?Charlotte Bunne (02:09):So I did my postdoc with Aviv Regev at Genentech and Jure Leskovec at CZI and Jure was part of the residency program of CZI. And so, this is how we got involved and you had also prior work with Steve on the universal cell embedding. So this is how everything got started.Eric Topol (02:29):And it's actually amazing because it's a who's who of people who work in life science, AI and digital biology and omics. I mean it's pretty darn impressive. So I thought I'd start off with a quote in the article because it kind of tells a story of where this could go. So the quote was in the paper, “AIVC (artificial intelligence virtual cell) has the potential to revolutionize the scientific process, leading to future breakthroughs in biomedical research, personalized medicine, drug discovery, cell engineering, and programmable biology.” That's a pretty big statement. So maybe we can just kind of toss that around a bit and maybe give it a little more thoughts and color as to what you were positing there.Steve Quake (03:19):Yeah, Charlotte, you want me to take the first shot at that? Okay. So Eric, it is a bold claim and we have a really bold ambition here. We view that over the course of a decade, AI is going to provide the ability to make a transformative computational tool for biology. Right now, cell biology is 90% experimental and 10% computational, roughly speaking. And you've got to do just all kinds of tedious, expensive, challenging lab work to get to the answer. And I don't think AI is going to replace that, but it can invert the ratio. So within 10 years I think we can get to biology being 90% computational and 10% experimental. And the goal of the virtual cell is to build a tool that'll do that.Eric Topol (04:09):And I think a lot of people may not understand why it is considered the holy grail because it is the fundamental unit of life and it's incredibly complex. It's not just all the things happening in the cell with atoms and molecules and organelles and everything inside, but then there's also the interactions the cell to other cells in the outside tissue and world. So I mean it's really quite extraordinary challenge that you've taken on here. And I guess there's some debate, do we have the right foundation? We're going to get into foundation models in a second. A good friend of mine and part of this whole I think process that you got together, Eran Segal from Israel, he said, “We're at this tipping point…All the stars are aligned, and we have all the different components: the data, the compute, the modeling.” And in the paper you describe how we have over the last couple of decades have so many different data sets that are rich that are global initiatives. But then there's also questions. Do we really have the data? I think Bo Wang especially asked about that. Maybe Charlotte, what are your thoughts about data deficiency? There's a lot of data, but do you really have what we need before we bring them all together for this kind of single model that will get us some to the virtual cell?Charlotte Bunne (05:41):So I think, I mean one core idea of building this AIVC is that we basically can leverage all experimental data that is overall collected. So this also goes back to the point Steve just made. So meaning that we basically can integrate across many different studies data because we have AI algorithms or the architectures that power such an AIVC are able to integrate basically data sets on many different scales. So we are going a bit away from this dogma. I'm designing one algorithm from one dataset to this idea of I have an architecture that can take in multiple dataset on multiple scales. So this will help us a bit in being somewhat efficient with the type of experiments that we need to make and the type of experiments we need to conduct. And again, what Steve just said, ultimately, we can very much steer which data sets we need to collect.Charlotte Bunne (06:34):Currently, of course we don't have all the data that is sufficient. I mean in particular, I think most of the tissues we have, they are healthy tissues. We don't have all the disease phenotypes that we would like to measure, having patient data is always a very tricky case. We have mostly non-interventional data, meaning we have very limited understanding of somehow the effect of different perturbations. Perturbations that happen on many different scales in many different environments. So we need to collect a lot here. I think the overall journey that we are going with is that we take the data that we have, we make clever decisions on the data that we will collect in the future, and we have this also self-improving entity that is aware of what it doesn't know. So we need to be able to understand how well can I predict something on this somewhat regime. If I cannot, then we should focus our data collection effort into this. So I think that's not a present state, but this will basically also guide the future collection.Eric Topol (07:41):Speaking of data, one of the things I think that's fascinating is we saw how AlphaFold2 really revolutionized predicting proteins. But remember that was based on this extraordinary resource that had been built, the Protein Data Bank that enabled that. And for the virtual cell there's no such thing as a protein data bank. It's so much more as you emphasize Charlotte, it's so much dynamic and these perturbations that are just all across the board as you emphasize. Now the human cell atlas, which currently some tens of millions, but going into a billion cells, we learned that it used to be 200 cell types. Now I guess it's well over 5,000 and that we have 37 trillion cells approximately in the average person adult's body is a formidable map that's being made now. And I guess the idea that you're advancing is that we used to, and this goes back to a statement you made earlier, Steve, everything we did in science was hypothesis driven. But if we could get computational model of the virtual cell, then we can have AI exploration of the whole field. Is that really the nuts of this?Steve Quake (09:06):Yes. A couple thoughts on that, maybe Theo Karaletsos, our lead AI person at CZI says machine learning is the formalism through which we understand high dimensional data and I think that's a very deep statement. And biological systems are intrinsically very high dimensional. You've got 20,000 genes in the human genome in these cell atlases. You're measuring all of them at the same time in each single cell. And there's a lot of structure in the relationships of their gene expression there that is just not evident to the human eye. And for example, CELL by GENE, our database that collects all the aggregates, all of the single cell transcriptomic data is now over a hundred million cells. And as you mentioned, we're seeing ways to increase that by an order of magnitude in the near future. The project that Jure Leskovec and I worked on together that Charlotte referenced earlier was like a first attempt to build a foundational model on that data to discover some of the correlations and structure that was there.Steve Quake (10:14):And so, with a subset, I think it was the 20 or 30 million cells, we built a large language model and began asking it, what do you understand about the structure of this data? And it kind of discovered lineage relationships without us teaching it. We trained on a matrix of numbers, no biological information there, and it learned a lot about the relationships betwe

Thank you Katelyn Jetelina, Andy Meyers, Tracy Paeschke, MD, FACC, Bruce Lanphear, Tay MacIntyre, and many others for tuning into my live video with Katelyn Jetelina! Join me for my next live video in the app. Get full access to Ground Truths at erictopol.substack.com/subscribe

Funding for the NIH and US biomedical research is imperiled at a momentous time of progress. Exemplifying this is the work of Dr. Anna Greka, a leading physician-scientist at the Broad Institute who is devoted to unlocking the mysteries of rare diseases— that cumulatively affect 30 million Americans— and finding cures, science supported by the NIH.A clip from our conversationThe audio is available on iTunes and Spotify. The full video is linked here, at the top, and also can be found on YouTube.Transcript with audio and external linksEric Topol (00:06):Well, hello. This is Eric Topol from Ground Truths, and I am really delighted to welcome today, Anna Greka. Anna is the president of the American Society for Clinical Investigation (ASCI) this year, a very prestigious organization, but she's also at Mass General Brigham, a nephrologist, a cell biologist, a physician-scientist, a Core Institute Member of the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, and serves as a member of the institute’s Executive Leadership Team. So we got a lot to talk about of all these different things you do. You must be pretty darn unique, Anna, because I don't know any cell biologists, nephrologists, physician-scientist like you.Anna Greka (00:48):Oh, thank you. It's a great honor to be here and glad to chat with you, Eric.Eric Topol (00:54):Yeah. Well, I had the real pleasure to hear you speak at a November conference, the AI for Science Forum, which we'll link to your panel. Where I was in a different panel, but you spoke about your extraordinary work and it became clear that we need to get you on Ground Truths, so you can tell your story to everybody. So I thought rather than kind of going back from the past where you were in Greece and somehow migrated to Boston and all that. We're going to get to that, but you gave an amazing TED Talk and it really encapsulated one of the many phenomenal stories of your work as a molecular sleuth. So maybe if you could give us a synopsis, and of course we'll link to that so people could watch the whole talk. But I think that Mucin-1 or MUC1, as you call it, discovery is really important to kind of ground our discussion.A Mysterious Kidney Disease Unraveled Anna Greka (01:59):Oh, absolutely. Yeah, it's an interesting story. In some ways, in my TED Talk, I highlight one of the important families of this story, a family from Utah, but there's also other important families that are also part of the story. And this is also what I spoke about in London when we were together, and this is really sort of a medical mystery that initially started on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, where it was found that there were many families in which in every generation, several members suffered and ultimately died from what at the time was a mysterious kidney disease. This was more than 30 years ago, and it was clear that there was something genetic going on, but it was impossible to identify the gene. And then even with the advent of Next-Gen sequencing, this is what's so interesting about this story, it was still hard to find the gene, which is a little surprising.Anna Greka (02:51):After we were able to sequence families and identify monogenic mutations pretty readily, this was still very resistant. And then it actually took the firepower of the Broad Institute, and it's actually from a scientific perspective, an interesting story because they had to dust off the old-fashioned Sanger sequencing in order to get this done. But they were ultimately able to identify this mutation in a VNTR region of the MUC1 gene. The Mucin-1 gene, which I call a dark corner of the human genome, it was really, it's highly repetitive, very GC-rich. So it becomes very difficult to sequence through there with Next-Gen sequencing. And so, ultimately the mutation of course was found and it's a single cytosine insertion in a stretch of cytosines that sort of causes this frameshift mutation and an early stop codon that essentially results in a neoprotein like a toxic, what I call a mangled protein that sort of accumulates inside the kidney cells.Anna Greka (03:55):And that's where my sort of adventure began. It was Eric Lander’s group, who is the founding director of the Broad who discovered the mutation. And then through a conversation we had here in Boston, we sort of discovered that there was an opportunity to collaborate and so that’s how I came to the Broad, and that's the beginnings of this story. I think what's fascinating about this story though, that starts in a remote Mediterranean island and then turns out to be a disease that you can find in every continent all over the world. There are probably millions of patients with kidney disease in whom we haven't recognized the existence of this mutation. What's really interesting about it though is that what we discovered is that the mangled protein that's a result of this misspelling of this mutation is ultimately captured by a family of cargo receptors, they’re called the TMED cargo receptors and they end up sort of grabbing these misfolded proteins and holding onto them so tight that it's impossible for the cell to get rid of them.Anna Greka (04:55):And they become this growing heap of molecular trash, if you will, that becomes really hard to manage, and the cells ultimately die. So in the process of doing this molecular sleuthing, as I call it, we actually also identified a small molecule that actually disrupts these cargo receptors. And as I described in my TED Talk, it's a little bit like having these cargo trucks that ultimately need to go into the lysosome, the cells recycling facility. And this is exactly what this small molecule can do. And so, it was just like a remarkable story of discovery. And then I think the most exciting of all is that these cargo receptors turn out to be not only relevant to this one mangled misshapen protein, but they actually handle a completely different misshapen protein caused by a different genetic mutation in the eye, causing retinitis pigmentosa, a form of blindness, familial blindness. We're now studying familial Alzheimer's disease that's also involving these cargo receptors, and there are other mangled misshapen proteins in the liver, in the lung that we're now studying. So this becomes what I call a node, like a nodal mechanism that can be targeted for the benefit of many more patients than we had previously thought possible, which has been I think, the most satisfying part about this story of molecular sleuthing.Eric Topol (06:20):Yeah, and it's pretty extraordinary. We'll put the figure from your classic Cell paper in 2019, where you have a small molecule that targets the cargo receptor called TMED9.Anna Greka (06:34):Correct.Expanding the MissionEric Topol (06:34):And what's amazing about this, of course, is the potential to reverse this toxic protein disease. And as you say, it may have applicability well beyond this MUC1 kidney story, but rather eye disease with retinitis pigmentosa and the familial Alzheimer's and who knows what else. And what's also fascinating about this is how, as you said, there were these limited number of families with the kidney disease and then you found another one, uromodulin. So there's now, as you say, thousands of families, and that gets me to part of your sleuth work is not just hardcore science. You started an entity called the Ladders to Cures (L2C) Scientific Accelerator.Eric Topol (07:27):Maybe you can tell us about that because this is really pulling together all the forces, which includes the patient advocacy groups, and how are we going to move forward like this?Anna Greka (07:39):Absolutely. I think the goal of the Ladders to Cures Accelerator, which is a new initiative that we started at the Broad, but it really encompasses many colleagues across Boston. And now increasingly it's becoming sort of a national, we even have some international collaborations, and it's only two years that it's been in existence, so we're certainly in a growth mode. But the inspiration was really some of this molecular sleuthing work where I basically thought, well, for starters, it cannot be that there's only one molecular node, these TMED cargo receptors that we discovered there's got to be more, right? And so, there's a need to systematically go and find more nodes because obviously as anyone who works in rare genetic diseases will tell you, the problem for all of us is that we do what I call hand to hand combat. We start with the disease with one mutation, and we try to uncover the mechanism and then try to develop therapies, and that's wonderful.Anna Greka (08:33):But of course, it's slow, right? And if we consider the fact that there are 30 million patients in the United States in every state, everywhere in the country who suffer from a rare genetic disease, most of them, more than half of them are children, then we can appreciate the magnitude of the problem. Out of more than 8,000 genes that are involved in rare genetic diseases, we barely have something that looks like a therapy for maybe 500 of them. So there's a huge mismatch in the unmet need and magnitude of the problem. So the Ladders to Cures Accelerator is here to address this and to do this with the most modern tools available. And to your point, Eric, to bring patients along, not just as the recipients of whatever we discover, but also as partners in the research enterprise because it's really important to bring their perspectives and of course their partnerships in things like developing appropriate biomarkers, for example, for what we do down the road.Anna Greka (09:35):But from a fundamental scientific perspective, this is basically a project that aims to identify every opportunity for nodes, underlying all rare genetic diseases as quickly as possible. And this was one of the reasons I was there at the AI for Science Forum, because of course when one undertakes a project in which you're basically, this is what we're trying to do in the Ladders to Cures

Before getting into this new podcast, have you checked out the recent newsletter editions and podcasts of Ground Truths?—the first diagnostic immunome—a Covid nasal vaccine update—medical storytelling and uncertainty—why did doctors with A.I. get outperformed by A.I. alone?The audio is available on iTunes and Spotify. The full video is embedded here, at the top, and also can be found on YouTube.Transcript with links to Audio and External Links Eric Topol (00:07):Well, hello. It's Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I am just thrilled today to welcome Carl Zimmer, who is one of the great science journalists of our times. He's written 14 books. He writes for the New York Times and many other venues of great science, journalism, and he has a new book, which I absolutely love called Air-Borne. And you can see I have all these rabbit pages tagged and there's lots to talk about here because this book is the book of air. I mean, we're talking about everything that you ever wanted to know about air and where we need to go, how we missed the boat, and Covid and everything else. So welcome, Carl.Carl Zimmer (00:51):Thanks so much. Great to be here.A Book Inspired by the PandemicEric Topol (00:54):Well, the book starts off with the Skagit Valley Chorale that you and your wife Grace attended a few years later, I guess, in Washington, which is really interesting. And I guess my first question is, it had the look that this whole book was inspired by the pandemic, is that right?Carl Zimmer (01:18):Certainly, the seed was planted in the pandemic. I was working as a journalist at the New York Times with a bunch of other reporters at the Times. There were lots of other science writers also just trying to make sense of this totally new disease. And we were talking with scientists who were also trying to make sense of the disease. And so, there was a lot of uncertainty, ambiguity, and things started to come into focus. And I was really puzzled by how hard it was for consensus to emerge about how Covid spread. And I did some reporting along with other people on this conflict about was this something that was spreading on surfaces or was it the word people were using was airborne? And the World Health Organization said, no, it's not airborne, it's not airborne until they said it was airborne. And that just seemed like not quantum physics, you know what I'm saying? In the sense that it seemed like that would be the kind of thing that would get sorted out pretty quickly. And I think that actually more spoke to my own unfamiliarity with the depth of this field. And so, I would talk to experts like say, Donald Milton at the University of Maryland. I'd be like, so help me understand this. How did this happen? And he would say, well, you need to get to know some people like William Wells. And I said, who?Eric Topol (02:50):Yeah, yeah, that's what I thought.Carl Zimmer (02:53):Yeah, there were just a whole bunch of people from a century ago or more that have been forgotten. They've been lost in history, and yet they were real visionaries, but they were also incredibly embattled. And the question of how we messed up understanding why Covid was airborne turned out to have an answer that took me back thousands of years and really plunged me into this whole science that's known as aerobiology.Eric Topol (03:26):Yeah, no, it's striking. And we're going to get, of course, into the Covid story and how it got completely botched as to how it was being transmitted. But of course, as you go through history, you see a lot of the same themes of confusion and naysayers and just extraordinary denialism. But as you said, this goes back thousands of years and perhaps the miasma, the moral stain in the air that was start, this is of course long before there was thing called germ theory. Is that really where the air thing got going?A Long History of Looking Into Bad AirCarl Zimmer (04:12):Well, certainly some of the earliest evidence we have that people were looking at the air and thinking about the air and thinking there's something about the air that matters to us. Aristotle thought, well, there's clearly something important about the air. Life just seems to be revolve around breathing and he didn't know why. And Hippocrates felt that there could be this stain on the air, this corruption of the air, and this could explain why a lot of people in a particular area, young and old, might suddenly all get sick at the same time. And so, he put forward this miasma theory, and there were also people who were looking at farm fields and asking, well, why are all my crops dead suddenly? What happened? And there were explanations that God sends something down to punish us because we've been bad, or even that the air itself had a kind of miasma that affected plants as well as animals. So these ideas were certainly there, well over 2,000 years ago.Eric Topol (05:22):Now, as we go fast forward, we're going to get to, of course into the critical work of William and Mildred Wells, who I'd never heard of before until I read your book, I have to say, talk about seven, eight decades filed into oblivion. But before we get to them, because their work was seminal, you really get into the contributions of Louis Pasteur. Maybe you could give us a skinny on what his contributions were because I was unaware of his work and the glaciers, Mer de Glace and figuring out what was going on in the air. So what did he really do to help this field?Carl Zimmer (06:05):Yeah, and this is another example of how we can kind of twist and deform history. Louis Pasteur is a household name. People know who Louis Pasteur is. People know about pasteurization of milk. Pasteur is associated with vaccines. Pasteur did other things as well. And he was also perhaps the first aerobiologist because he got interested in the fact that say, in a factory where beet juice was being fermented to make alcohol, sometimes it would spoil. And he was able to determine that there were some, what we know now are bacteria that were getting into the beet juice. And so, it was interrupting the usual fermentation from the yeast. That in itself was a huge discovery. But he was saying, well, wait, so why are there these, what we call bacteria in the spoiled juice? And he thought, well, maybe they just float in the air.Carl Zimmer (07:08):And this was really a controversial idea in say, 1860, because even then, there were many people who were persuaded that when you found microorganisms in something, they were the result of spontaneous generation. In other words, the beet juice spontaneously produced this life. This was standard view of how life worked and Pasteur was like, I'm not sure I buy this. And this basically led to him into an incredible series of studies around Paris. He would have a flask, and he'd have a long neck on it, and the flask was full of sterile broth, and he would just take it places and he would just hold it there for a while, and eventually bacteria would fall down that long neck and they would settle in the broth, and they would multiply in there. It would turn cloudy so he could prove that there was life in the air.Carl Zimmer (08:13):And they went to different places. He went to farm fields, he went to mountains. And the most amazing trip he took, it was actually to the top of a glacier, which was very difficult, especially for someone like Pasteur, who you get the impression he just hated leaving the lab. This was not a rugged outdoorsman at all. But there he is, climbing around on the ice with this flask raising it over his head, and he caught bacteria there as well. And that actually was pivotal to destroying spontaneous generation as a theory. So aerobiology among many, many other things, destroyed this idea that life could spontaneously burst into existence.Eric Topol (08:53):Yeah, no. He says ‘these gentlemen, are the germs of microscopic beings’ shown in the existence of microorganisms in the air. So yeah, amazing contribution. And of course, I wasn't familiar with his work in the air like this, and it was extensive. Another notable figure in the world of germ theory that you bring up in the book with another surprise for me was the great Robert Koch of the Koch postulates. So is it true he never did the third postulate about he never fulfilled his own three postulates?Carl Zimmer (09:26):Not quite. Yeah, so he had these ideas about what it would take to actually show that some particular pathogen, a germ, actually caused a disease, and that involved isolating it from patients, culturing it outside of them. And then actually experimentally infecting an animal and showing the symptoms again. And he did that with things like anthrax and tuberculosis. He nailed that. But then when it came to cholera, there was this huge outbreak in Egypt, and people were still battling over what caused cholera. Was it miasma? Was it corruption in the air, or was it as Koch and others believe some type of bacteria? And he found a particular kind of bacteria in the stool of people who were dying or dead of cholera, and he could culture it, and he consistently found it. And when he injected animals with it, it just didn't quite work.Eric Topol (10:31):Okay. Yeah, so at least for cholera, the Koch’s third postulate of injecting in animals, reproducing the disease, maybe not was fulfilled. Okay, that's good.Eric Topol (10:42):Now, there's a lot of other players here. I mean, with Fred Meier and Charles Lindbergh getting samples in the air from the planes and Carl Flügge. And before we get to the Wells, I just want to mention these naysayers like Charles Chapin, Alex Langmuir, the fact that they said, well, people that were sensitive to pollen, it was just neurosis. It wasn't the pollen. I mean, just amazing stuff. But anyway, the principles of what I got from the book was the Wells, the husband and wife, very interesting characters who eventually even split up, I guess. But can you tell us about their contributions? Be

Before getting into this new podcast, have you checked out the recent newsletter editions of Ground Truths?—how are gut microbiome drives sugar cravings—the influence of sleep on brain waste clearance and aging—the new findings of microplastics in the brain—the surprise finding about doctors and A.I.In this podcast with Dr. Emily Silverman, an internist and founder of The Nocturnists, an award winning podcast and live show, we discuss what inspired her in medicine, what led to her disillusionment, the essentiality of storytelling, of recognizing uncertainty, the limits of A.I., and promoting humanity in medicine. The audio is available on iTunes and Spotify. The full video is linked here, at the top, and also can be found on YouTube.“Storytelling is medicine's currency. Storytelling is not just an act of self-healing; it may actually create better physicians.”—Emily SilvermanTranscript with links to audio and relevant publications, websitesEric Topol (00:07):Well, hello. This is Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and with me, I am delighted to welcome Dr. Emily Silverman, who is Assistant Volunteer Professor of Medicine at UCSF, an old training grounds for me. And we're going to talk about some of the experience she's had there and she is the Founder of the remarkably recognized podcast, The Nocturnists. It's more than a podcast folks. We'll talk about that too. So Emily, welcome.Emily Silverman (00:40):Thank you for having me.Inspiration by Kate McKinnonEric Topol (00:42):Yeah. Well, I thought I would go back to perhaps when we first synapsed, and it goes back to a piece you wrote in JAMA about going to the Saturday Night Live (SNL) with Kate McKinnon. And it was one of my favorite columns, of course, it brought us together kind of simpatico because you were telling a story that was very personal, and a surprise factor added to it. We'll link to it. But it said, ‘Sometime in 2016, I fell in love with SNL comedian Kate McKinnon.’ You wrote, ‘It was something about her slow-mo swagger; her unilateral dimple, flickering in and out of existence; the way she drinks up her characters and sweats them from her pores.’ I mean, you're an incredible writer, no less podcast interviewer, organizer, doctor. And you talked about my sterile clinical life, which was kind of maybe a warning of things to come and about the fact that there's two very different career paths, comedy and medicine. One could argue they are in essence the same. So maybe you could tell us about that experience and about Kate McKinnon who, I mean, she's amazing.Emily Silverman (02:09):You're making me blush. Thank you for the kind words about the piece and about the writing, and I'm happy to give you a bit of background on that piece and where it came from. So I was in my internal medicine residency at UCSF and about halfway through residency really found myself hitting a wall. And that is actually what gave birth to The Nocturnists, which is the medical storytelling program that I run. But I think another symptom of my hitting that wall, so to speak, and we can talk more about what exactly that is and what that means, was me really looking outside of medicine and also outside of my typical day-to-day routine to try to find things that were a part of me that I had lost or I had lost touch with those aspects of myself. And one aspect of myself that I felt like I had lost touch to was my humorous side, my sense of humor, my silly side even you could say.Emily Silverman (03:17):And throughout my life I have this pattern where when I'm trying to get back in touch with a side of myself, I usually find somebody who represents that and sort of study it, I guess you could say. So in this case, for whatever reason that landed on Kate McKinnon, I just loved the surrealism of her comedy. I loved how absurd she is and loved her personality and so many things. Everything that you just read and really found her and her comedy as an escape, as a way to escape the seriousness of what I was doing on a day-to-day basis in the hospital and reconnect with those humorous sides of myself. So that's the understory. And then the story of the article is, I happened to be traveling to New York for a different reason and found myself standing in line outside of 30 Rock, hoping to get into Saturday Night Live. And there was basically a zero chance that we were going to get in. And part of the reason why is the musical guest that week was a K-pop band called BTS, which is one of the most famous bands in the world. And there were BTS fans like camped out in three circles around 30 Rock. So that week in particular, it was especially difficult to get in. There was just too many people in line. And we were at the very end of the line.Eric Topol (04:43):And it was in the pouring rain, too.Emily Silverman (04:45):And it was pouring rain. And my husband, God bless him, was there with me and he was like, what are we doing? And I was like, I don't know. I just have a feeling that we should stay in line, just go with it. So we did stay in line and then in the morning we got a number, and the way it works is you get your number and then that evening you show up with your number and our number was some crazy number that we weren't going to get in. But then that evening when we went back with our number to wait in line again to get in, what ended up happening is a young woman in the NBC gift shop, she passed out in the middle of the gift shop and I was right there. And so, I went over to her and was asking her questions and trying to help her out.Emily Silverman (05:27):And fortunately, she was fine. I think she just was dehydrated or something, and the security guards were so appreciative. And the next thing I knew, they were sweeping me backstage and up a staircase and in an elevator and they said, thank you so much for your service, welcome to Saturday Night Live. So it became this interesting moment where the very thing that I had been escaping from like medicine and serving and helping people ended up being the thing that gave me access, back to that side of myself, the humorous side. So it was just felt kind of cosmic, one of those moments, like those butterfly wing flapping moments that I decided to write about it and JAMA was kindly willing to publish it.Eric Topol (06:15):Well, it drew me to you and recognize you as quite an extraordinary talent. I don't know if you get recognized enough for the writing because it's quite extraordinary, as we'll talk about in some of your other pieces in the New York Times and in other JAMA journals and on and on. But one thing I just would note is that I resort to comedy a lot to deal with hard times, like the dark times we're in right now, so instead of watching the news, I watch Jimmy Kimmel's monologue or Colbert's monologue or the Comedy Show, anything to relieve some of the darkness that we're dealing with right at the moment. And we're going to get back to comedy because now I want to go back, that was in 2019 when you wrote that, but it was in 2016 when you formed The Nocturnists. Now, before you get to that critical path in your career of this new podcast and how it blossomed, how it grew is just beyond belief. But maybe you could tell us about your residency, what was going on while you were a medical resident at UCSF, because I can identify with that. Well, like any medical residency, it's pretty grueling experience and what that was like for you.Medical ResidencyEmily Silverman (07:45):There were so many wonderful positive aspects of residency and there were so many challenges and difficult aspects of residency. It's all mixed up into this sticky, complicated web of what residency was. On the positive side, some of the most amazing clinicians I've ever met are at UCSF and whether that was seasoned attendings or chief residents who they just seemed to have so many skills, the clinical, the research, the teaching, just amazing, amazing high caliber people to learn from. And of course, the patient population. And at UCSF, we rotate at three different hospitals, the UCSF hospital, the SF General Hospital, which is the public county hospital and the VA hospital. So having the opportunity to see these different patient populations was just such a rich clinical and storytelling opportunity. So there was a lot there that was good, but I really struggled with a few things.Emily Silverman (08:48):So one was the fact that I spent so much of my sitting in front of a computer, and that was not something that I expected when I went into medicine when I was young. And I started to learn more about that and how that happened and when that changed. And then it wasn't just the computer, it was the computer and other types of paperwork or bureaucratic hurdles or administrative creep and just all the different ways that the day-to-day work of physicians was being overtaken by nonclinical work. And that doesn't just mean thinking about our patients, but that also means going to the bedside, sitting with our patients, getting to know them, getting to know their families. And so, I started to think a lot about clinical medicine and what it really means to practice and how that's different from how it was 10, 20, 40 years ago.Emily Silverman (09:43):And then the other part of it that I was really struggling with was aspects of medical culture. The fact that we were working 80 hour weeks, I was working 28 hour shifts every fourth night, every other month. And the toll that took on my body, and I developed some health issues as a result of that and just felt in a way, here I am a doctor in the business of protecting and preserving health and my own health is kind of being run into the ground. And that didn't make sense to me. And so, I started asking questions about that. So there was a lot there. And at first I thought, maybe this is a me thing or maybe this is a California thing. And eventually I realized this was a national thing and I started to notice headlines,

The Chief Scientific Advisor at Novo Nordisk, Lotte Bjerre Knudsen, was the key force who pushed hard to develop GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity and subsequently for Alzheimer’s. She was recently recognized by the 2024 Lasker Medical Research Award, and the 2024 AAAS Bhaumik Breakthrough of the Year Award. That recognition is richly deserved, since it is unclear if the GLP-1 drug path to obesity treatment, and all of the associated benefits, would have been seen at this time without her influence. That’s especially true given the mystery for why people with Type 2 diabetes (for which these drugs were used for many years) did not exhibit much in the way of weight loss. We discussed that and the future of these drugs, including their potential to prevent neurodegenerative diseases. And about dressing up in pink!The Ground Truths podcasts are also available on Apple and Spotify.Our entire conversation can also be seen by video at YouTube along with all of the Ground Truths podcasts. If you like the video format, please subscribe to this channel. Even if you prefer video, please take a look at the transcript with graphics and useful links to citations.A Video Clip below on the barriers of a woman scientist to push Novo Nordisk to develop GLP-1 for obesity. “I was always just been a nerdy little scientist who kind of found home here in this company for 35 years.”—Lotte Bjerre Knudsen, 60 MinutesTranscript with Links to audio and external referencesEric Topol (00:06):Well, hello, it's Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I have with me a special guest. She's the Chief Science Officer of Novo Nordisk and it's Lotte Bjerre Knudsen, and we're delighted to have her. She's a recent recipient of the Lasker Award, which I think is considered like the pre-Nobel Award here in the United States. And I was involved with her in terms of researching who was the principal person who brought the GLP-1 drugs to the forefront for obesity, and it turned out to be Lotte. So welcome, Lotte.Lotte Bjerre Knudsen (00:48):Thank you very much. And also very, very happy to be here. I'm not the Chief Science Officer for Novo Nordisk, I'm the Chief Scientific Advisor of working for the Chief Science Officer of Novo Nordisk, but maybe too many people, not so different, right?From Laundry Detergents to GLP-1 DrugsEric Topol (01:06):Yes. Thank you, I actually meant to say advisor, but yes, I'm glad you cleared that up. I know from speaking to some of your colleagues, I actually spoke to Robin yesterday that you are looked to very highly, the most highly regarded person in science there, so not surprisingly. What I want to do is first talk about the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) that got its legs back in, I guess 1984. So we're going way back. And what's also interesting is that you go way back at Novo Nordisk to 35 years in 1989. And so, there had been this work with this extraordinary hormone and neurotransmitter with a very short half-life that you knew about. But when you first started in Novo Nordisk, you weren't working on this. As I understand it, you're working on laundry detergent enzymes. How did you make this pivot from the laundry enzymes to getting into the GLP-1 world?Lotte Bjerre Knudsen (02:16):Yeah, thank you for that question. I'm from the technical University of Denmark, so I'm trained in biotechnology, and we're a small country, so not that many companies to work for. And I always had my mind set on, I wanted to work for Novo as it was called back then, and it just happened to be in the industrial enzyme part that I got my foot in first. And then I had a very interesting boss at the time. Unfortunately, he's not alive anymore, but he was both a medical doctor as well as a chemist. So he was actually put in charge of actually, let's see if we can do something new in diabetes. And then since he hired me and I had not been there that long, I simply tagged along as the youngest scientist on the team, and then suddenly I became a diabetes researcher. Around the same time, I think you remember that all of pharma was interested in obesity in the early 90s, everyone wanted to do diabetes as well as obesity, but they were separate teams and they all wanted to do small molecules, but it just happens to be so that the best idea we could find at that time was actually GLP-1, because we actually had clinical data relatively early that GLP-1 was a really good candidate as a treatment for diabetes because of the glucose sensitivity of the actions.(03:43):So you'd have efficient lowering of glucose through a dual mechanism with increasing insulin, lowering glucagon, and then it was safe because there wasn't this hypoglycemia you get from insulin. But then I had other colleagues who were working on obesity, and I was just kind of listening, right, what's going on there? And then also a colleague that I had, we had, I don’t know if you remember the old Hagedorn Research Institute, but Novo actually had kind of like an academic research institute that was affiliated with us. And there was this group that were working on this glucagon tumor model that produced high levels of glucagon, GLP-1 and PYY. And these rats, they starved themselves to death. And I knew about that from 1994. So that actually inspired my thinking. So when Stephen Bloom's paper came out in January of 1996, and he was the first one to call GLP-1 a neurotransmitter, I think, but I was already way into actually screening these kind of molecules that later then became liraglutide.No One Else Thought About This [Obesity](04:54):And then I thought, why on earth should we not actually do both things at the same time? If we have an idea that can both work in diabetes in a much safer way than in insulin, and then also at the same time work in obesity. But the reality is that no one else thought about this, or if they thought about it, they didn't really think that it would a good idea. But I think I had the luxury of being in a biotech company, so everyone was working with peptides and proteins. So I don't think I got the same challenge that the other people in the other pharma’s got when they all wanted small molecules.Eric Topol (05:36):Well, also just to set the foundation here, which you alluded to, there had been so many attempts to come up with a drug that would work, not just of course in diabetes where there are many classes of drugs, but moreover, to treat the condition of obesity. Actually, I was involved with one of them, Rimonabant and did the large trial, which as you know, led to having to stop the drug, discontinue it because it was associated with suicidal ideation and actual some suicide. So there had been such a long history of checkered inability to come up with a drug. But what was striking is the challenge, and this is one of the first important questions about, when you had the extended half-life of the first GLP-1 drug, that instead of having to take multiple times a day, you could actually, with liraglutide get to a point where you were starting to get to an extended half-life. This is now going back to 1997 with approval in 2010, still 14 years ago. But when you came up with this drug, because this was certainly one of your great contributions, this drug was just a step along the way in this kind of iterative process, wouldn't you say? It wasn't the long half-life and the potency that eventually got us to where we are today. Is that true?Lotte Bjerre Knudsen (07:15):Yeah, it was a stepwise process. And what's super interesting about this class of medicines is that they're actually so different. If you talk about a class of medicine where small molecules, they can be different, but they're usually more alike than they're different. And when it comes to this class with these medium-sized peptides, people tried a whole bunch of different things. So they're actually really, really different. Some are simple peptides. So the idea that I came up with was to use this fatty acid isolation principle, and that's then a subclass in the class. And then the first, once weekly, for example, was an antibody-based molecule liraglutide. So they're much, much, much larger molecule compared to the small peptides. So they're very different. And neither the simple peptides nor the really big antibody derived molecules, they don't give a lot of weight loss. So we actually get more weight loss with these kinds of molecules, which is also why you can now see that it has actually kind of inspired a whole industry to kind of try and go and make similar kinds of molecules.Eric Topol (08:27):Well, inspired a whole industry is an understatement. It’s become the most extraordinary class of drugs, I think in medical history, having been a student of various, I mean obviously statins have been a major contribution, but this seems to have transcended that already. We're going to talk about more about where things are headed, but this fatty acid acetylation was a major step forward in extending the half-life of the drug, whereby today you can give semaglutide once a week. And this, I think, of course, there are many ways that you might've been able to extend the half-life, but you were starting with a hormone, a natural hormone neurotransmitter that had such an exquisitely short half-life of basically second or minutes rather than that you could give for a week. So I know there were many different ways you could have protected or extended the half-life one way or another, but this seemed to be a breakthrough of many along the chain of breakthroughs. But the question I have is when you were giving this to the diabetics, which was the precedent, that was really what these drugs were first intended, they didn't lose that much weight, and they never, still today when it's looked at for obese non-diabetics versus diabetics, there's a gap in weight loss. Why is that at the exact same dose, with the exact same peptide that the weight loss differs for people with type 2 diabetes as compared to those

Piezo touch and pressure-sensing ion channels are showing up everywhere as the explanation for physiologic phenomena, both at the macro and micro levels. Ardem Patapoutian, my friend and colleague at Scripps Research, discovered these receptors back in 2010 and was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2021 for his work. As you’ll see/hear from our conversation, the field has exploded. And you’ll get to know Ardem, who is such a fun, charismatic, and down-to-earth person. He also recently got a unique tattoo (videos below) and I wonder (unlikely) if any other Nobel laureates have one related to their discovery?!Below is a video clip from our conversation. Full videos of all Ground Truths podcasts can be seen on YouTube here. The current one is here. If you like the YouTube format, please subscribe! The audios are also available on Apple and Spotify.Transcript with links to audioEric Topol (00:07):Well, hello. It's Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I've really got a special guest today. The first time for the podcast, I've been able to interview a colleague and faculty at Scripps Research, Ardem Patapoutian, who just by the way happens to be the 2021 Nobel Laureate in Physiology or Medicine. So welcome, Ardem. It's so wonderful to have you.Ardem Patapoutian (00:30):Thanks so much, Eric. Looking forward to chatting with you.Eric Topol (00:34):Well, this has been interesting because although I've known you for several years, I didn't research you. I mean, I had to learn about more than I even do. And of course, one of the great sources of that is on the Nobel Prize website where you tell your whole story. It is quite a story and not to review all of it, but I wanted to go back just before you made the call to move to Los Angeles from Beirut, Lebanon and with the scare that you went through at that time, it seemed like that was just extraordinary that you had to live through that.Ardem Patapoutian (01:11):Yeah, so I am of Armenian origin, but I was born in Lebanon and born in 1967, so I was eight years old when the civil war started. So it's a kind of bizarre childhood in the sense that with all the bombs and fighting in Lebanon. So it was tough childhood to have, but it was never personal. It was bombs and such. And so, the event you're talking about is, I happened to be kidnapped while crossing East to West Beirut. They only held me for four or five hours at first asking me questions to see who I am, but I think they pretty soon figured out that I was not a dangerous guy and they ended up letting me go. But before that, that incident really had a huge impact on me so that by the time I got home, I literally said, I'm out of here. I'm going to find a way to leave the country. And so, that's what, very quickly within a few months I packed and came to United States.Eric Topol (02:19):And how did you pick LA to be your destination?Ardem Patapoutian (02:22):Being from the Armenian community, there's a lot of Armenians in Los Angeles. My cousins already had moved there. They also grew up in Lebanon. And my brother, who's a few years older than me, got admitted to USC graduate school in engineering. So he was going to be there. So it made a lot of sense.Eric Topol (02:44):Oh yeah.Ardem Patapoutian (02:45):Unlike him, I came with no school or job prospects because it happened so fast that I kind of just left. One year I was at American University of Beirut for one year, but then just left and came here. So worked for a year in various jobs and then started going back to school to UCLA.Eric Topol (03:07):Yeah, I saw how there was about a year where you were delivering pizzas and before you got into UCLA, and that must have been an interesting off year, if you will. Well, the story of course, just to fast forward, you did your baccalaureate at UCLA, your PhD at Caltech, postdoc at UCSF, and then you came to Scripps Research 24 years ago along with Pete Schultz, and it's been quite an amazing run that you've had. Now, before we get into PIEZO receptors, the background, maybe you could help me understand, the precursor work seems to be all related to the transient receptor potential (TRP) series, also ion channels. They were of course related to whether it was heat and temperature or somatosensory. How do these channels compare to the ones that you discovered years later?Background on these Ion ChannelsArdem Patapoutian (04:09):Yeah, so the somatosensory neurons that innervate your fingertips and everywhere else in your body, their main job is to sense temperature and pressure. And this is very different than any other neuron or any other cell. So when you touch a hot stove that’s burning hot, you need to know about that immediately within milliseconds or something cold. So the opposite side of it is pressure sensing, and it also comes in light touch, which is pleasant or a hammer hitting your finger, which is unpleasant. But all of these have the same characteristic anyway, that is your body has learned at the molecular level to translate a physical stimulus such as temperature and pressure into an electrical signal that neurons use to communicate with each other. But this idea of how you translate physical stimuli into chemical or electrical signal has been a long open question because as you know, most of our cells communicate by chemicals, whether that's hormones or small molecules, we know how that works, receptor bind to ligand, confirmational change and you get a kinase activation and that's enough. But here, how do you sense pressure? How do you sense temperature? It was just, there wasn't much known about that. And that's why our earlier work on TRP channels, which were temperature sensors came before the pressure. And so, they're very related in that sense.Eric Topol (05:52):The structure of these, if you were to look at them, do they look pretty similar? What the TRP as you say, and what you did back in the 2010 Science paper, which we'll link to, of course the classic paper where you describe PIEZO1 and PIEZO2, but if you were to look at this structures, would they look pretty similar?Ardem Patapoutian (06:14):No, that's a good question. And they absolutely don't. That's why finding these receptors were so hard. So if you go back to other sensory receptors, vision rhodopsin G-protein coupled receptor (GPCRs), larger G-protein coupled receptor look the same. So for example, when it was identified by chemically, that smell also works through G-protein coupled receptor. Richard Axel and Linda Buck, who also won the Nobel Prize, found those receptors by homology to visual GPCRs. The ion channels other than the fact that they crossed the membrane a few times or more, they have nothing else in common. If you looked at their structure, you can't even immediately tell they’re ion channels. So you couldn't find these by structural homology or sequence homology. So you had to do something else. And usually that means functional screens and et cetera.Eric Topol (07:09):Well, yeah, and I'm in touch with the screening. We'll get to that and how you dig these up and find them. But the somatosensory ones are really interesting because I don't think a lot of people realize that when you have wasabi or you have Listerine mouthwash and feel the burn and that these are all mediated through these channels, right?Ardem Patapoutian (07:35):Yeah. So there's this whole field of chemesthesis, which means senses in your mouth, for example, that are not explained by taste transduction and olfactory. And these are actually by the same somatosensory neurons that help you sense temperature and pressure. And some of these receptors are the same. Their evolution has taken over and used them for many different things. The prime example of this is the capsaicin receptor that David Julius my co-laureate identified, which is also heat receptors. So all languages describe chili peppers as hot, and that's not a coincidence. It actually activates heat activated channel, and that's why we think of it as hot. And so, the same goes to another one of these TRP channels that you mentioned, which is TRPA1, and this one is also activated, but a lot of spicy foods other than the chili pepper active ingredient includes what's in garlic and onions and everything that has this burning sensation and chemicals of this and wasabi and chemicals of this are used in over the counter products like Listerine that cause that burning sensation.Eric Topol (08:54):So when you're chopping onions and it makes you cry, is that all part of it as well?Ardem Patapoutian (08:59):That’s all TRPA1, yeah.The Discovery, A Test of PerseveranceEric Topol (09:01):It's wild. Now, this was the groundwork. There were these heat temperature and somatic sensory, and then you were starting to wonder what about touch, what about out pressure and proprioception. And so, you went on a hunt, and it's actually kind of an incredible story about how you were able to find out of these cells that you had, screening hundreds or I guess you got to 72 different small interfering RNA blocking that you finally found the one. Is that right?Ardem Patapoutian (09:37):That's right. So in retrospect, looking back at it, I think there's such an interesting scientific message there. And so, many of us were looking for this touch pressure sensors and we were all looking in the DRG sensory neurons that are complicated heterogeneous, they don't divide. It's not easy to do a screen on them. And ultimately after a lot of failures, what worked for us is to take a step back and ask a much more simpler question. And that was, can we find one of these cell lines that you could easily homogeneously grow in a culture dish, if they respond to mechanical force, can we find our channel there? And then go back and look if it's relevant in vivo for what process. So I think the message is ask the simplest question to answer the question you're after. And finding what that is, is actually the challenge lots of times.Ardem Patapoutian (1

American healthcare is well known for its extreme cost and worst outcomes among industrialized (such as the 38 OECD member) countries, and beyond that to be remarkably opaque. The high cost of prescription drugs contributes, and little has been done to change that except for the government passing the Affordable Insulin Now Act at the end of 2022, enacted in 2023. But in January 2022 Mark Cuban launched Cost Plus Drugs that has transformed how many Americans can get their prescriptions filled at a fraction of the prevailing prices, bypassing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) that control 80% of US prescriptions. That was just the beginning of a path of creative destruction (disruptive innovation, after Schumpeter) of many key components American healthcare that Cuban is leading, with Cost Plus Marketplace, Cost Plus Wellness and much more to come. He certainly qualifies as a master disrupter: “someone who is a leader in innovation and is not afraid to challenge the status quo.” Below is a video clip from our conversation dealing with insurance companies. Full videos of all Ground Truths podcasts can be seen on YouTube here. The current one is here. If you like the YouTube format, please subscribe! The audios are also available on Apple and Spotify.Transcript with External links to Audio (00:07):Hello, it's Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I have our special phenomenal guest today, Mark Cuban, who I think you know him from his tech world contributions and Dallas Mavericks, and the last few years he's been shaking up healthcare with Cost Plus Drugs. So Mark, welcome.Mark Cuban (00:25):Thanks for having me, Eric.Eric Topol (00:27):Yeah, I mean, what you're doing, you’ve become a hero to millions of Americans getting them their medications at a fraction of the cost they're used to. And you are really challenging the PBM industry, which I've delved into more than ever, just in prep for our conversation. It's just amazing what this group of companies, namely the three big three CVS Caremark, Optum of UnitedHealth and Express Scripts of Cigna with a market of almost $600 billion this year, what they're doing, how can they get away with all this stuff?Inner Workings of Pharmacy Benefit ManagersMark Cuban (01:03):I mean, they're just doing business. I really don't blame them. I blame the people who contract with them. All the companies, particularly the bigger companies, the self-insured companies, where the CEO really doesn't have an understanding of their healthcare or pharmacy benefits. And so, the big PBMs paid them rebates, which they think is great if you're a CEO, when in reality it's really just a loan against the money spent by your sickest employees, and they just don't understand that. So a big part of my time these days is going to CEOs and sitting with them and explaining to them that you're getting ripped off on both your pharmacy and your healthcare side.Eric Topol (01:47):Yeah, it's amazing to me the many ways that they get away with this. I mean, they make companies sign NDAs. They're addicted to rebates. They have all sorts of ways a channel of funds to themselves. I mean, all the things you could think of whereby they even have these GPOs. Each of these companies has a group purchasing organization (I summarized in the Table below).Mark Cuban (02:12):Yeah, which gives them, it's crazy because with those GPOs. The GPO does the deal with the pharmacy manufacturer. Then the GPO also does the deal with the PBM, and then the PBM goes to the self-insured employer in particular and says, hey, we're going to pass through all the rebates. But what they don't say is they've already skimmed off 5%, 10%, 20% or more off the top through their GPO. But that's not even the worst of it. That's just money, right? I mean, that's important, but I mean, even the biggest companies rarely own their own claims data.Mark Cuban (02:45):Now think about what that means. It means you can't get smarter about the wellness of your employees and their families. You want to figure out the best way to do GLP-1s and figure out how to reduce diabetes, whatever it may be. You don't have that claims data. And then they don't allow the companies to control their own formularies. So we've seen Humira biosimilars come out and the big PBMs have done their own version of the biosimilar where we have a product called Yusimry, which is only $594 a month, which is cheaper than the cheapest biosimilar that the big three are selling. And so, you would think in a normal relationship, they would want to bring on this new product to help the employer. No, they won't do it. If the employer asks, can I just add Cost Plus Drugs to my network? They'll say no, every single time.Mark Cuban (03:45):Their job is not to save the employer money, particularly after they've given a rebate. Because once they give that loan, that rebate to the employer, they need to get that money back. It's not a gift. It's a loan and they need to have the rebates, and we don't do rebates with them at all. And I can go down the list. They don't control the formula. They don't control, you mentioned the NDAs. They can't talk to manufacturers, so they can't go to Novo or to Lilly and say, let's put together a GLP-1 wellness program. All these different things that just are common sense. It's not happening. And so, the good news is when I walk into these companies that self-insured and talk to the CEO or CFO, I'm not asking them to do something that's not in their best interest or not in the best interest of the lives they cover. I'm saying, we can save you money and you can improve the wellness of your employees and their families. Where's the downside?Eric Topol (04:40):Oh, yeah. Yeah. And the reason they can't see the claims is because of the privacy issues?Mark Cuban (04:46):No, no. That's just a business decision in the contract that the PBMs have made. You can go and ask. I mean, you have every right to your own claims. You don't need to have it personally identified. You want to find out how many people have GLP-1s or what are the trends, or God forbid there's another Purdue Pharma thing going on, and someone prescribing lots of opioids. You want to be able to see those things, but they won't do it. And that's only on the sponsor side. It's almost as bad if not worse on the manufacturer side.Eric Topol (05:20):Oh, yeah. Well, some of the work of PBMs that you've been talking about were well chronicled in the New York Times, a couple of major articles by Reed Abelson and Rebecca Robbins: The Opaque Industry Secretly Inflating Prices for Prescription Drugs and The Powerful Companies Driving Local Drugstores Out of Business. We'll link those because I think some people are not aware of all the things that are going on in the background.Mark Cuban (05:39):You see in their study and what they reported on the big PBMs, it's crazy the way it works. And literally if there was transparency, like Cost Plus offers, the cost of medications across the country could come down 20%, 30% or more.Cost Plus DrugsEric Topol (05:55):Oh, I mean, it is amazing, really. And now let's get into Cost Plus. I know that a radiologist, Alex Oshmyansky contacted you with a cold email a little over three years ago, and you formed Cost Plus Drugs on the basis of that, right?Mark Cuban (06:12):Yep, that's exactly what happened.Eric Topol (06:15):I give you credit for responding to cold emails and coming up with a brilliant idea with this and getting behind it and putting your name behind it. And what you've done, so you started out with something like 110 generics and now you're up well over 1,200 or 2,500 or something like that?Mark Cuban (06:30):And adding brands. And so, started with 111. Now we're around 2,500 and trying to grow it every single day. And not only that, just to give people an overview. When you go to www.costplusdrugs.com and you put in the name of your medication, let's just say it's tadalafil, and if it comes up. In this case, it will. It'll show you our actual cost, and then we just mark it up 15%. It's the same markup for everybody, and if you want it, we'll have a pharmacist check it. And so, that's a $5 fee. And then if you want ship to mail order, it's $5 for shipping. And if you want to use our pharmacy network, then we can connect you there and you can just pick it up at a local pharmacy.Eric Topol (07:10):Yeah, no, it's transparency. We don't have a lot of that in healthcare in America, right?Mark Cuban (07:15):No. And literally, Eric, the smartest thing that we did, and we didn't expect this, it's always the law of unintended consequences. The smartest thing we did was publish our entire price list because that allowed any company, any sponsor, CMS, researchers to compare our prices to what others were already paying. And we've seen studies come out saying, for this X number of urology drugs, CMS would save $3.6 billion a year. For this number of heart drugs at this amount per year, for chemotherapy drugs or MS drugs this amount. And so, it's really brought attention to the fact that for what PBMs call specialty drugs, whether there's nothing special about them, we can save people a lot of money.Eric Topol (08:01):It's phenomenal. As a cardiologist, I looked up a couple of the drugs that I'm most frequently prescribed, just like Rosuvastatin what went down from $134 to $5.67 cents or Valsartan it went down from $69 to $7.40 cents. But of course, there's some that are much more dramatic, like as you mentioned, whether it's drugs for multiple sclerosis, the prostate cancer. I mean, some of these are just thousands and thousands of dollars per month that are saved, brought down to levels that you wouldn't think would even be conceivable. And this has been zero marketing, right?Mark Cuban (08:42):Yeah, none. It's all been word of mouth and my big mouth, of course. Going out there and doing interviews like this and going to major media, but it's amazing. We get emails and letters a

A leader for conducting rigorous randomized trials of humans along with animal models for understanding nutrition and metabolism, Dr. Kevin Hall is a Senior Investigator at the National Institutes of Health, and Section Chief of the Integrative Physiology Section, NIDDK. In this podcast, we reviewed his prolific body of research a recent publications. The timing of optimizing our diet and nutrition seems apropos, now that we’re in in the midst of the holiday season!Below is a video snippet of our conversation on his ultra-processed food randomized trial.Full videos of all Ground Truths podcasts can be seen on YouTube here. The current one is here. If you like the YouTube format, please subscribe! The audios are also available on Apple and Spotify.Note: I’ll be doing a Ground Truths Live Chat on December 11th at 12 N EST, 9 AM PST, so please mark your calendar and join!Transcript with links to publications and audioEric Topol (00:05):Well, hello. This is Eric Topol with Ground Truths, and I'm really delighted to have with me today, Dr. Kevin Hall from the NIH. I think everybody knows that nutrition is so important and Kevin is a leader in doing rigorous randomized trials, which is not like what we usually see with large epidemiologic studies of nutrition that rely on food diaries and the memory of participants. So Kevin, it's really terrific to have you here.Kevin Hall (00:34):Thanks so much for the invitation.Ultra-Processed FoodsEric Topol (00:36):Yeah. Well, you've been prolific and certainly one of the leaders in nutrition science who I look to. And what I thought we could do is go through some of your seminal papers. There are many, but I picked a few and I thought we'd first go back to the one that you published in Cell Metabolism. This is ultra-processed diets cause excessive caloric intake and weight gain. (Main results in graph below.) So maybe you can take us through the principle findings from that trial.Kevin Hall (01:10):Yeah, sure. So that was a really interesting study because it's the first randomized control trial that's investigated the role of ultra-processed foods in potentially causing obesity. So we've got, as you mentioned, lots and lots of epidemiological data that have made these associations between people who consume diets that are very high in ultra-processed foods as having greater risk for obesity. But those trials are not demonstrating causation. I mean, they suggest a strong link. And in fact, the idea of ultra-processed foods is kind of a new idea. It's really sort of appeared on the nutrition science stage probably most prominently in the past 10 years or so. And I first learned about this idea of ultra-processed foods, which is really kind of antithetical to the way most nutrition scientists think about foods. We often think about foods as nutrient delivery vehicles, and we kind of view foods as being the fraction of carbohydrates versus fats in them or how much sodium or fiber is in the foods.Kevin Hall (02:17):And along came this group in Brazil who introduced this new way of classifying foods that completely ignores the nutrient composition and says what we should be doing is classifying foods based on the extent and purpose of processing of foods. And so, they categorize these four different categories. And in the fourth category of this so-called NOVA classification scheme (see graphic below) , they identified something called ultra-processed foods. There's a long formal definition and it's evolved a little bit over the years and continues to evolve. But the basic ideas that these are foods that are manufactured by industries that contain a lot of purified ingredients made from relatively cheap agricultural commodity products that basically undergo a variety of processes and include additives and ingredients that are not typically found in home kitchens, but are typically exclusively in manufactured products to create the wide variety of mostly packaged goods that we see in our supermarkets.Kevin Hall (03:22):And so, I was really skeptical that there was much more about the effects of these foods. Other than that they typically have high amounts of sugar and saturated fat and salt, and they're pretty low in fiber. And so, the purpose of this study was to say, okay, well if there's something more about the foods themselves that is causing people to overconsume calories and gain weight and eventually get obesity, then we should do a study that's trying to test for two diets that are matched for these various nutrients of concern. So they should be matched for the macronutrients, they should be matched for the sugar content, the fat, the sodium, the fiber, and people should just be allowed to eat whatever they want and they shouldn't be trying to change their weight in any way. And so, the way that we did this was, as you mentioned, we can't just ask people to report what they're eating.Kevin Hall (04:19):So what we did was we admitted these folks to the NIH Clinical Center and to our metabolic ward, and it's a very artificial environment, but it's an environment that we can control very carefully. And so, what we basically did is take control over their food environment and we gave them three meals a day and snacks, and basically for a two-week period, they had access to meals that were more than 80% of calories coming from ultra-processed foods. And then in random order, they either received that diet first and give them simple instructions, eat as much as little as you want. We're going to measure lots of stuff. You shouldn't be trying to change your weight or weight that gave them a diet that had no calories from ultra-processed foods. In fact, 80% from minimally processed foods. But again, both of these two sort of food environments were matched for these nutrients that we typically think of as playing a major role in how many calories people choose to eat.Kevin Hall (05:13):And so, the basic idea was, okay, well let's measure what these folks eat. We gave them more than double the calories that they would require to maintain their weight, and what they didn't know was that in the basement of the clinical center where the metabolic kitchen is, we had all of our really talented nutrition staff measuring the leftovers to see what it was that they didn't eat. So we knew exactly what we provided to them and all the foods had to be in our nutrition database and when we compute what they actually ate by difference, so we have a very precise estimate about not only what foods they chose to ate, but also how many calories they chose to eat, as well as the nutrient composition.And the main upshot of all that was that when these folks were exposed to this highly ultra-processed food environment, they spontaneously chose to eat about 500 calories per day more over the two-week period they were in that environment then when the same folks were in the environment that had no ultra-processed foods, but just minimally processed foods. They not surprisingly gained weight during the ultra-processed food environment and lost weight and lost body fat during the minimally processed food environment. And because those diets were overall matched for these different nutrients, it didn't seem to be that those were the things that were driving this big effect. So I think there's a couple of big take homes here. One is that the food environment really does have a profound effect on just the biology of how our food intake is controlled at least over relatively short periods of time, like the two-week periods that we were looking at. And secondly, that there's something about ultra-processed foods that seem to be driving this excess calorie intake that we now know has been linked with increased risk of obesity, and now we're starting to put some of the causal pieces together that really there might be something in this ultra-processed food environment that's driving the increased rates of obesity that we've seen over the past many decades.Eric Topol (07:18):Yeah, I mean I think the epidemiologic studies that make the link between ultra-processed foods and higher risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, neurodegenerative disease. They're pretty darn strong and they're backed up by this very rigorous study. Now you mentioned it short term, do you have any reason to think that adding 500 calories a day by eating these bad foods, which by the way in the American diet is about 60% or more of the average American diet, do you have any inkling that it would change after a few weeks?Kevin Hall (07:54):Well, I don't know about after a few weeks, but I think that one of the things that we do know about body weight regulation and how it changes in body weight impact both metabolism, how many calories were burning as well as our appetite. We would expect some degree of moderation of that effect eventually settling in at a new steady state, that's probably going to take months and years to achieve. And so the question is, I certainly don't believe that it would be a 500 calorie a day difference indefinitely. The question is when would that difference converge and how much weight would've been gained or lost when people eventually reached that new plateau? And so, that's I think a really interesting question. Some folks have suggested that maybe if you extrapolated the lines a little bit, you could predict when those two curves might eventually converge. That's an interesting thought experiment, but I think we do need some longer studies to investigate how persistent are these effects. Can that fully explain the rise in average body weight and obesity rates that have occurred over the past several decades? Those are open questions.Eric Topol (09:03):Yeah. Well, I mean, I had the chance to interview Chris van Tulleken who wrote the book, Ultra-Processed People and I think you might remember in the book he talked about how he went on an ultra-processed diet and gained some 20, 30 pounds in a sho