Inside Prediction Markets

Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk about why he went all-in on prediction markets: the proposed 90% gambling-loss deduction rule, week-long withdrawals vs. next-day payouts on PMs and why offshore books are in a "slow death." Plus how he turned a rough first month on PMs into one of the best runs of his career, and the $35K NASCAR mistake along the way.

Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time.Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 delivered. Huge volume across the board, tight spreads, and deep liquidity on marquee matchups like Michigan–Oklahoma and Texas–Ohio State.On the NFL side, we open with the Chiefs–Broncos Monday night line and from there it's a full Week 1 recap: Myles Garrett landing on IR, Lions–Bills predictions for Thursday, the Giants' win over the Cowboys, the Jets sitting tied for first in their division, and a rough opening week for a couple of last year's MVP-caliber quarterbacks. 

This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook limits heading into the season. From there we dig into Seahawks-Patriots (and the safety injuries moving that line) and the travel-schedule twist in Rams-49ers, plus his take on Aaron Donald.To close it out, Rob answers reader questions, including his pick for a 5-year quarterback rebuild, his take on the Lane Kiffin bonus-hedge story and the 2 teams he'd price differently in the NFL power rankings.

This week we discuss LSU reportedly using prediction markets to hedge Lane Kiffin-related bonuses, Donald Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, the politics surrounding prediction market regulation and whether the industry could eventually become too big to unwind.Then, gaming and prediction markets attorney, Alex Dubin, joins the show to break down the Ninth Circuit’s ruling against Kalshi, why it conflicts with the Third Circuit’s decision, and how the growing divide between federal and state regulators could ultimately land in front of the Supreme Court.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:00 LSU hedges Lane Kiffin on Kalshi01:57 Polymarket’s $21B valuation2:50 Trump Jr.: "Back Off"04:08 Alex Dubin joins the show07:33 Ninth circuit ruling15:06 Why federal markets are split on PMs 17:03 Could PMs reach the Supreme Court?27:11 Are PMs gambling? 33:26 Are PMs too big to fail?#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

This week, President Trump expressed his support of prediction markets in the U.S., our Novig CEO and co-founder Jacob had a CNBC feature and NFL players are returning to college football. Then, we get into the NFL markets that are already exceeding expectations before the regular season begins. We unpack the surge in preseason trading volume and predict just how massive trading will become Week 1. We debate which exchanges will grow the most from football season and preview trading activity around the U.S. Open. We wrap up with a quick debrief of BetBash 2026.