Insights Now

Watch the video version on YouTube.  The end of the year is near, and that means everyone is comparing their Spotify Wrapped and Apple Music Replays, making the case for why their most-listened-to song is the best. We wanted to do something similar for Insights Now. That is why, for our final episode of season 12, we will reflect on some of the most important takeaways from the 23 episodes we recorded this year. From exploring the fastest-growing themes in alternatives to navigating the complexities of the U.S. election, we’ve covered a lot of ground, so stay tuned as we recap our “greatest hits” of 2024. This episode explores the main themes and insights from the past year. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, the Chief Strategist for the Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and new co-host for the Insights Now podcast. Resources: Explore the full Investment Outlook here.  Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.    In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to explore the transportation sector's resilience amid geopolitical and market disruptions. we'll talk about how transport assets, like ships and planes, have shown stability during events such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The discussion highlights the sector's critical role in global trade, the impact of regulations like the Jones Act and the evolving landscape influenced by tariffs and China's economic activity.   Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Anurag Agarwal, Head Portfolio Manager for our Global Transportation Group, to discuss the distinction between opportunistic and core investment strategies in the transport sector, emphasizing the stability and income potential of leasing critical transport assets.   Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  In recent years, the notion of “correct” portfolio construction has been challenged and diversification has become unpopular. Stocks and bonds have shown an increased propensity to move together, calling into question the efficacy of the classic “60/40” portfolio. Moreover, sustained outperformance in select segments of global financial markets has caused portfolios to drift away from target allocations and left many investors with little motivation to allocate elsewhere. However, with a new year comes new forces driving markets, and the winners of the past may not be the winners of the future. To prepare portfolios for any unforeseen risks that may arise in 2025, diversification remains the best option, although the ways in which investors can diversify may look different than before. To share his thoughts on diversification in the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: Explore the full Investment Outlook here.  Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  The pandemic, geopolitical tension and climate change have revived industrial policy around the globe. In the U.S., the IIJA, IRA, and CHIPs act collectively represent the largest investment in infrastructure since the Cold War. In particular, there are significant opportunities in modernizing and expanding the electrical grid as decarbonization and data centers drive up demand. In addition to these secular tailwinds, core infrastructure’s steady, uncorrelated cash flows make it a valuable portfolio diversifier. Today, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Chris Simard, an Investment Specialist in the J.P. Morgan Infrastructure and Investment Group, to parse through all of this and more. Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the current landscape of commercial real estate, highlighting opportunities beyond the office sector. We’ll talk about the ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., which has been made worse by past overbuilding, lack of workers and zoning issues. The industrial sector is thriving, driven by the rise in e-commerce and logistics, with a significant increase in delivery vehicles. Retail is evolving, with neighborhood strip centers and high-end luxury performing well, while middle-tier malls struggle. Real estate is a valuable component of investment portfolios, offering risk mitigation, inflation protection and consistent cash flow. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Chad Tredway, Head of Real Estate Americas at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the opportunities he’s seeing on the market. Chad leads our investment management business in the United States for real estate and his team focuses on the $70 billion of real estate that we own. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00) Direct vs. Public market real estate investment (01:19) Housing shortage in the U.S. (02:23) The J.P. Morgan approach to single-family rentals (03:41) Office space recovery post-COVID (05:34) Industrial space and delivery trends (07:15) Retail space outlook (08:26) Real estate in investment portfolios (10:34) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. As we usher in a new year, the investment landscape is almost certainly set to change. That’s why in our twelfth season of Insights Now titled, “Preparing for the path forward,” Dr. David Kelly will sit down with portfolio managers and strategists from across J.P. Morgan to discuss their key takeaways from 2024, and what they expect from the economy and markets in 2025. With the new year just around the corner, tune in to hear what opportunities we are most excited about, and what risks we are most mindful of, heading into the new year. With the U.S. election in the rear-view mirror and the Federal Reserve finally easing policy, the forces driving financial markets in 2025 could differ greatly from 2024. Policy uncertainty should step in for election uncertainty, and the monetary policy debate will center around how quickly the Fed will cut, not when it will begin cutting. Still, with the U.S. economy displaying impressive resilience and structural tailwinds supporting prospects abroad, there remains a wide menu of attractive opportunities for investors to consider across global stocks and bonds, and plenty of ways to diversify. That said, markets can move quickly. Investors striving for alpha should be active in portfolios and allocate to their highest conviction ideas instead of sitting passively on the sidelines. To share some of his highest conviction ideas for the year ahead, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager in our Multi Asset Solutions group here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources visit our website.  Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ash Williams, Vice Chair of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Ash served as Chief Investment Officer and Executive Director of the Florida State Board of Administration, where he oversaw $250 billion in assets. He has extensive experience as an institutional investor in both public and private markets. Throughout their conversation, they cover a range of topics surrounding the importance of alternatives in a portfolio and the best approach to constructing a portfolio with alternatives. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00:00) Risk and return within alternatives (01:27) Allocating capital toward alternatives (04:37) Process of picking specific alternatives (06:30) Institutional vs. individual portfolio allocations to alternatives (13:01) Importance of manager selection (15:40) Opportunities in alternatives today (17:06) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. On previous episodes, we’ve discussed the muted return outlook for a traditional 60/40 portfolio, and the return enhancing potential of Private Equity and Venture Capital. As companies wait longer to IPO, investors are turning to private markets for access to the fastest growing part of a business’s lifecycle. In this episode, we’re going to explore the opportunities in private healthcare and biotechnology. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gaurav Gupta, Managing Partner of Life Science Private Capital within J.P. Morgan Private Capital. He is a neurosurgeon turned investor, and we’re so excited to have him here to discuss the trends he’s seeing in the market. Timestamps: Typical healthcare investments (1:01) Investing in private healthcare vs. public healthcare (5:42) Private equity exits and valuations in healthcare (9:13) AI and drug development in healthcare (10:56) Regulatory changes within healthcare investment (16:06) Best opportunities in healthcare investment (18:33) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. On previous episodes, we’ve discussed what’s called the “democratization of alternatives.” Put simply, alternatives have become more accessible to individuals as the investment vehicles have evolved to address pain points like high minimums and long lockup periods. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, is joined by Anastasia Amoroso, the Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital. The platform is designed to help clients navigate the world of alternative investments. We’ll hear from Anastasia about what iCapital does to help individuals feel confident investing in alternatives, as well as her perspective on the trends we’re seeing in the market. Resources: For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  The U.S election is just a few short weeks away, and many investors are picking through campaign-trail noise to decipher what policies each administration would pursue and their implications. With both Former President Trump’s and Vice President Harris’s campaigns promising hefty amounts of spending but few clues on how it will be funded, the longer-term trajectory for taxes, the deficit and federal debt is largely uncertain, but must be addressed. According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. debt held by the public as a percent of GDP is expected to increase from a likely 98% in fiscal 2024 to over 120% in 2034. This assumes that provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act sunset as scheduled and increase taxes by $4 trillion at the end of 2025. If these tax cuts are extended, however, debt held by the public could rise to 130% of GDP over the same period. Regardless, policies from either side of the aisle will impact the fiscal health of the United States, and as a result, the balance of risks and opportunities that investors must consider when building portfolios. Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the different paths forward for fiscal policy. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify  

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Within our financial system, the idea that the Federal Reserve should operate as an independent entity is fundamental. Importantly, the Federal Reserve is a political institution that is accountable to Congress, but also to the public, and its independence ensures it can conduct monetary policy in a way that it perceives to be in support of its dual mandate without undue political pressures. However, some candidates on the campaign trail have expressed interest in giving other branches of government a say in the Fed’s decision-making process, meaning that this election could have major implications for the ways in which monetary policy is conducted, its efficacy and the public’s confidence in the central bank. To explore the implications of any changes to the Federal Reserve’s independence, Gabriela Santos is excited to be back with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Listen to the audio version of the Insights Now podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on Youtube. In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the alternatives landscape from the perspective of the individual investor. Historically, these asset classes have been the domain of institutional capital, but the structure of alternative investment vehicles is evolving in ways that make them more accessible. Not only do individual investors have more access to alternatives, they also may have a greater need as the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges like elevated valuations, positive stock-bond correlation and a negative real yield. Additionally, as more companies are choosing to stay private for longer, alternatives allocations are becoming increasingly necessary to access these high-growth areas of the market. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Kristin Kallergis, the Global Head of Alternatives for the J.P. Morgan Private Bank, to discuss all of these themes. Kristin’s team manages $180BN of private wealth across a wide array of alternatives solutions, giving her unique insight into the evolution of this market. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00), Individuals vs. Institutions investing in alternatives (1:15), Liquidity needs within alternatives for individual investors (3:10), Selecting the right manager for alternatives (4:59), Popular asset classes within alternatives for individual investors (6:21), Niche asset classes (8:02), Private equity cash flow (10:12), Alternatives and secular themes (13:06) Resources: For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Federal government regulatory policies have the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the investment opportunity set and both candidates for president have expressed strong opinions on regulatory issues.  However, their attitudes on regulatory oversight appear to vary across industries and issues affecting the economy and society.  In addition, their power to implement regulatory change is limited both by political realities and the courts.  For investors, it is important to remember that it is policy, not politics, that matters most for markets and the economy. However, history suggests that regulatory policy may not always impact markets in the ways we’d expect. To dive deeper into proposed regulatory policies and their potential impacts, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. With comprehensive oversight and deep expertise in a diverse array of investment vehicles, including real estate, real assets, hedge funds, private equity, private credit and liquid alternative solutions, our mission is to demystify these often lesser-known asset classes. By providing clear, real-world examples, we aim to bridge the knowledge gap and empower investors to make informed decisions. Our goal is to bring these complex investment opportunities to life, showcasing their strategic value and how they can be effectively integrated into a diversified portfolio to achieve long-term financial objectives. Join us as Dr. David Kelly is joined by Brandon Robinson, Deputy Head of Private Markets, to discuss the different ways that adding alternatives into a portfolio can enhance clients’ outcomes and the benefits of private market investing.  For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. As rising geopolitical tensions and the pandemic fallout have uncovered weaknesses in global supply chains, many nations have begun to rethink their trading relationships. U.S. policy, for example, has turned increasingly nationalistic, with recent administrations implementing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade, allocating funds toward domestic development of strategic industries and proposing other protectionist measures to support domestic activity. This election season, tariffs and trade have once again found themselves at the forefront of recent discourse, with both candidates proposing a stricter stance on trade policy, but to varying degrees and in different forms. Regardless of the outcome in November, these policies will have a profound impact on the global economy and have the potential to redefine the opportunity set across global financial markets. Today’s episode discusses whether tariffs have been effective in the past and explore the investment implications of a more strict trade policy. For this conversation, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, joins Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  2020 and 2021 were banner years for the private equity market as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted fundraising, deal and exit activity. More recently, however, macro uncertainty and higher interest rates have put a damper on the asset class, which is highly dependent on leverage. Still, better-than-expected economic growth has supported recent performance. As companies, particularly in the Technology sector, wait longer to IPO, private equity has become an increasingly important way to get exposure to the high growth potential of early-stage companies. For decades, investors have used private equity to supplement their public equity allocations, enhancing returns, reducing volatility and providing access to secular market trends. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ashmi Mehrotra, the Co-Head and Portfolio Manager within the Global Private Equity Group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the trends and investment opportunities she’s seeing in the asset class. Time stamps: Introduction (00:00), Types of PE investments most focused on (1:00), Secondaries and Co-investments (1:32), Sectors and types of companies (6:59), Implications of slowing M&A and IPO activity (10:42), What dynamics are going to drive PE activity? (11:59) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. So far, this U.S. election cycle has been nothing short of turbulent and a looming source of volatility for much of this year. With the summer now behind us and November quickly approaching, investors should more seriously consider the implications of the upcoming election, and the opportunities and risks that may arise from it. That is why for the 11th season of Insights Now, titled “The policy and investment implications of the U.S. election,” David and I will discuss topics at the forefront of this election season, and explore the impacts proposed policies could have on the markets and economy. We’ll cover a range of topics, from immigration and tariffs to taxes and Fed independence, so tune in to stay informed on what could drive volatility heading into November, and how you can better prepare your portfolio for a post-election world. Over the past year and a half, surging immigration has helped boost labor supply at a time when U.S. demographic trends were sluggish and recession fears were elevated, providing a nice tailwind for the labor market and the economy more broadly. At the same time, immigration has caused significant stress for migrants and the communities that they arrive in, making the issue one of the most politically sensitive topics this election season. For our conversation, we will focus on the magnitude of the recent immigration surge, discuss how long it can continue and explore what it might mean for the economy and corporate profits moving forward. To dive deeper into all this, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, will be co-hosting this season and will be joined by the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode:  The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation has long been the accepted stalwart portfolio strategy. Currently, however, higher inflation has made the protection typically offered by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds less certain. Equity risk premiums are low, and interest rate volatility is high. On top of all that, public markets are becoming increasingly efficient, muting opportunities for excess return. As a result, investors are turning to Alternatives to ensure portfolios can still meet their long-term goals. Each alternative asset class has distinct characteristics and consequently a distinct role in portfolios. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Shawn Khazzam, Head of Private Wealth Alternatives, Americas, to discuss the different ways clients are using alternatives to enhance the risk-reward profile of their portfolios. Shawn is responsible for the growth strategy, sales and distribution of the private market alternative investments offered by the firm. Resources:  For more insights on Alternatives visit our website here.   Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify   

Watch the video version on YouTube. The 2024 presidential election is well underway and has already delivered a host of surprising twists and turns. Against a backdrop of relatively stable economic growth and quite impressive U.S. stock market returns, the election adds a source of uncertainty for investors. Could the election outcome pose a risk to markets, or certain sectors and asset classes? And, in what can sometimes be a tense and polarizing time in society, how can investors navigate this uncertainty and invest with confidence this year? In the final episode of this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to help address these questions.

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Deficit spending is not at all a new phenomenon in the United States. In fact, it is the norm, and the U.S. has run a budget deficit in 81 of the last 95 years, or 85% of the time since 1929. What is abnormal, however, is how large the pile of U.S. debt has grown relative to the broader economy. In fiscal year 2023, U.S. debt held by the public ballooned to $26.3tn, or a striking 97% of GDP, while the budget deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, and projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the debt dilemma may only get worse in the coming years. With the election quickly approaching, and last year’s debt ceiling and downgrade drama still fresh in investors’ minds, we often get asked “How will rising federal debt impact the markets and the economy?” To help us dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, interviews the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.