International report

A new Reporters Without Borders report warns of escalating danger for journalists globally, and highlights that deaths in Gaza at the hands of the Israeli military accounted for nearly half of all reporter deaths this year. The NGO's chief Thibaud Bruttin told RFI that Palestinian journalists were deliberately targeted, and also spoke about the violence spreading across Latin America and how hundreds of reporters remain imprisoned worldwide. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has warned that journalists are facing increasing dangers worldwide, with Israel emerging as the most lethal country for media workers for the third year running. In its annual report, the Paris-based watchdog says 67 journalists were killed over the past 12 months – and almost half of them died in Gaza at the hands of Israeli forces. Twenty-nine Palestinian journalists were killed by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during the reporting period, alongside what RSF calls "a whole strategy" by Israeli authorities that has severely restricted reporting on the conflict. The NGO's director Thibaud Bruttin told RFI that the pattern of deaths in Gaza cannot be dismissed as the tragic fallout of war. "There has been a whole strategy that has been put in place since October 2023," he explained. "First, there has been the decision to block the entry of Gaza to international journalists. Second, there has been a unit set up within the Israel Defence Forces to smear Palestinian journalists… and then we’ve seen massive strikes against journalists, which have been actually claimed as targeted strikes by the IDF." RSF says nearly 220 journalists have been killed since the Gaza war began in late 2023. Of those, the organisation believes 56 have been deliberately targeted. Bruttin stressed that RSF is not including people loosely associated with Hamas in that count, as some Israeli officials have claimed. “We’re talking about journalists – reporters who have been working, some of them for years, with respected international outlets – and these independent reporters have been deliberately targeted by the IDF." The report also highlights one of the deadliest attacks on media workers this year – a so-called ‘double-tap’ strike on a hospital in south Gaza on 25 August, which killed five journalists, including contributors to news agencies Reuters and the Associated Press. French unions take Israel to court for restricting media access to Gaza Information blackout A key concern for RSF is the ongoing block on independent media access to Gaza. Foreign reporters can only enter on tightly controlled military tours, despite sustained calls from media groups and press freedom organisations. The Foreign Press Association in Israel has taken the matter to court, challenging the IDF’s decision to deny access. Bruttin said the case has reached a critical point. "There has been an intermediary decision by the Supreme Court... and we’re expecting any time in the coming weeks a decision which should, we hope, enable the press to enter." He added that a combination of the restrictions and IDF smear campaigns has cooled global solidarity with Palestinian journalists. "The smear campaign … has had an impact on the solidarity among the profession," he said. "It has been very hard to attract the attention of news media globally, and these news media outlets have been very timid in voicing concern over the fate of Palestinian journalists." But the scale of the recent strikes appears to have shifted sentiment. According to Bruttin, the deadly attacks of 10 and 25 August prompted “an uptick in the interest of media around this”, allowing RSF to launch a major drive on 1 September that “blew away the smear campaign of the IDF”. With a fragile ceasefire now in place, he hopes momentum will grow around reopening access to Gaza and restoring independent reporting. 'Nowhere in Gaza is safe' says RFI correspondent amid call for global media access Beyond the Middle East While Gaza dominates the headlines, RSF’s report shows that the risks for journalists are a global concern. Mexico remains one of the world’s most perilous environments for reporters, despite government pledges of greater protection. Nine journalists were killed there in 2025 – the deadliest year in at least three years. Bruttin warns that the danger is spreading across Latin America. “The phenomenon has extended beyond the borders of Mexico,” he said. “We’ve seen journalists killed in Honduras, in Guatemala, in Peru, in Ecuador, in Colombia.” Around a quarter of all journalists killed this year were in Latin America, with many targeted by cartels, narco-traffickers and armed groups. This trend, he said, is “very concerning” and presents a serious challenge for governments attempting to safeguard reporters. Sudan and Ukraine also continue to be among the most dangerous places from which to report, with conflict making journalists prime targets on all sides. Global press freedom at 'tipping point', media watchdog RSF warns Journalists detained Alongside killings, RSF’s report documents a surge in the number of journalists imprisoned for their work. As of early December, 503 journalists were behind bars in 47 countries. China tops the list with 121 detained, followed by Russia with 48 and Myanmar with 47. Bruttin believes the international community can do far more to secure the release of detained reporters. “We need to effectively, deliberately campaign for the release of journalists,” he said. He pointed to the case of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, who was released as part of a prisoner swap with Russia. “If governments prioritise the release of journalists, they can meet success.” He expressed particular concern for the 26 Ukrainian journalists detained by Russia, many “outside of any legal framework”. He told RFI that Ukraine has the ability to prioritise their release through prisoner exchanges, citing a recent precedent in which RSF helped confirm proof of life for a detained Ukrainian reporter, forcing Russia to acknowledge holding him. “He was part of one of the latest prisoner swaps,” Bruttin noted. Although the overall number of journalist deaths remains below the highs of the early 2010s, RSF says the deliberate targeting of reporters and the erosion of access to information are becoming worryingly entrenched.

Ankara is voicing alarm over a spate of attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea, with fears that strikes on ships carrying oil and other key commodities could threaten global trade and pose environmental dangers to Turkey, which has the longest coastline in the strategic sea. The Turkish government on Thursday summoned both Russian and Ukrainian envoys, warning them to desist from escalating the conflict in the Black Sea. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned the past week's attacks on three Russian tankers as "unjustifiable". Kyiv said its drones targeted two of the vessels, and Moscow has warned it may consider striking the ships of countries supporting Ukraine if such attacks continue. "This escalation is very dangerous; no one can estimate what will happen," warns international relations expert and former Turkish presidential advisor Mesut Casin. "Putin says he will use reciprocity rights. This means some of the [Russian] submarines could attack not only Ukraine but also some of the Western NATO allies' tanker ships," he explains, a possibility that raises the threat of "a very big environmental disaster". Shadow fleet Kyiv has claimed responsibility for the drone attacks on two empty Russian-flagged tankers but denied involvement in the strike on a ship carrying sunflower oil to Georgia. The Russian tankers belong to Moscow's so-called "shadow fleet", which is used to circumvent international sanctions by carrying oil and other exports aboard ships not officially registered to the government.  Given Turkey's long Black Sea coast, fears of an environmental catastrophe are foremost for Ankara. "These shadow fleet tankers are not modern and are not in good condition," observes former Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp. "The Russians provide their own domestic insurance for these ships," he says. "But how useful and how valid these insurances will be [...] remains a question mark." How one man's ship-spotting hobby is helping thwart Russian sanction-busting Trade implications With Ukrainian forces destroying much of Russia's navy in the Black Sea, Moscow has limited capacities to protect its tankers. Ukraine has so far targeted only empty Russian tankers, but alarm bells are ringing on the potential implications for global trade. "Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of basic food and agricultural commodities," notes analyst Atilla Yesilada of GlobalSource Partners. "Despite massive bombing, Ukraine's grain export capacity is largely intact and is taking the coastal route. So any impairment of that is bad for the world at a time when we are not certain of crop yields because of the ongoing drought elsewhere." Insurance premiums for cargo ships using the Black Sea have already spiked amidst the escalating conflict. Ankara wary of escalation Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his NATO counterparts this week, broaching the topic of ensuring safe navigation of the vital sea trade route. Turkey is already cooperating with its partners in the alliance that share the Black Sea coast, Romania and Bulgaria, to clear sea mines. Fidan said that cooperation could be expanded to enhance shipping security.  However, any increased NATO involvement in the Black Sea would be borne mainly by the Turkish navy, given that the Romanian and Bulgarian navies are largely coastal forces. Ships belonging to navies outside the Black Sea have been shut out by Ankara since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, along with Russian warships. Turkey, under the 1936 Montreux Convention, regulates access to the sea and is only allowing warships to enter to return to their home ports. Turkey’s mediator role in the Ukraine war faces growing US pressure Former diplomat Kuneralp claims Ankara will be cautious of getting drawn into any conflict in the Black Sea. "It would put all the burden on Turkey alone. What would it do? Would it try to intervene in a dispute between Russia and Ukraine? That's unlikely. I would not want that to happen because it would be too risky," he says. "And that's perhaps why there have not been any concrete actions since the start of the war other than talk." For now, Turkey – one of the few countries with good relations with both Kyiv and Moscow – is relying on diplomacy, and hoping that Washington's ongoing peace efforts will succeed.

As Paris wrestles with political deadlock, questions are mounting over France’s ability to project strength abroad. RFI spoke to author and political strategist Gerald Olivier about the ongoing political crisis in France and its repercussions abroad. France is once again mired in political turmoil after the National Assembly last week overwhelmingly rejected the revenue side of the 2026 budget. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is trying a new method: rather than attempting to push a full budget through a fractured parliament, he aims to break spending into "absolute priorities" – security, energy, agriculture and state reform – and put each item to MPs separately. The move is intended to avoid another budget showdown, after two years of governmental instability that have steadily chipped away at President Emmanuel Macron’s authority. Critics, however, argue that the plan is merely a repackaged version of political improvisation – a delay tactic that risks further weakening France’s credibility at home and on the world stage. Jean-François Husson, the Senate’s general rapporteur for the budget, delivered one of the sharpest criticisms of Lecornu’s move, describing it as a chaotic and ill-timed intervention. "If you want to give the French a dizzying ride, you could hardly do it better than this," he remarked, arguing that the government’s approach was generating more confusion than clarity. For author and political strategist Gerald Olivier, there is a deeper problem. "France is sick, and France has been sick for a while," he says. "We’re basically looking at a country with no government, no parliamentary majority and a total impossibility for any prime minister to put forward a credible programme." French lawmakers roundly reject income part of budget bill, send it to Senate France technically needs to pass its budget by 31 December, but Olivier is quick to point out that this deadline has been missed before. "Last year, the budget wasn’t passed until February," he notes. If the same thing happens this time, the government can fall back on a temporary financial law that keeps spending aligned with the previous year’s budget for up to 70 days. A more drastic option – to rule by decree – exists as a constitutional backstop. "This crisis exists because there is no majority in parliament," Olivier says. "And it’s also because no party has had the courage to face the kind of medicine that France needs. That’s the larger issue." International credibility As a major European power, France’s domestic politics do not stay domestic for long. International investors and European Union partners are watching closely, especially after recent warnings from credit-rating agencies about France’s deficit trajectory. According to Olivier, the damage is already evident. "France is already in a recession, and there are investments simply passing the country by," he argues. "No one knows what its tax status will be in the coming years." That uncertainty could have a ripple effect across the continent. France, he warns, risks becoming "economically weak and therefore politically weak within Europe", potentially deepening divisions between EU member states. France’s economy minister warns latest credit downgrade a 'wake-up call' "The one reassuring piece of news is that France is not the only one in this situation. Germany is in dire shape, Italy is shaky, Sweden is having problems. It seems today that everyone in Europe is the sick man of Europe," he added. Periods of political instability often attract external opportunists – whether governments, speculators or hostile influence campaigns. But Olivier remains cautious when asked whether foreign actors are already exploiting France’s woes. "I don’t necessarily see it," he says, "but if you want to consider fictional scenarios, you could find many." France’s EU membership, he argues, offers a buffer. "Having the EU behind you is reassuring. The idea of ‘Frexit’ would be disastrous. The euro provides protection." Still, the consequences of weakened governance can extend beyond the economy. A fragile budget could force France to scale back overseas military deployments – a shift that could alter power dynamics in parts of Africa and the Middle East. "This kind of instability is not healthy for anyone," Olivier says. A president without momentum Macron’s political capital has been in decline since the 2022 legislative elections, when he lost his absolute majority. The surprise dissolution of the Assembly after the 2024 European elections only worsened matters, splitting the parliament into three mutually hostile blocs. "It’s done tremendous damage to Macron," Olivier says. "He was re-elected in 2022 because people didn’t want Marine Le Pen. He didn’t have the support he had in 2017, and disappointment set in." He argues that Macron himself triggered the crisis. "He dissolved the Assembly for no reason. The European elections had no influence on French politics, but he reacted as if they did – and he made things worse." Could the president break the deadlock? In theory, yes. "Macron could solve it instantly by resigning," Olivier notes. "That would trigger a new presidential election, followed by fresh parliamentary elections. That’s how institutions are supposed to function." But he sees no sign that Macron intends to take that step. For now, he predicts "another 18 months of instability" with the possibility of yet another government reshuffle. "We’ve had four governments in 12 months. We could have a fifth one next year. There is no telling." France's Le Pen asks Bardella to prepare for 2027 presidential bid Eyes on 2027 With Macron unable to stand again, attention is already turning to the 2027 presidential race. The National Rally – headed by Marine Le Pen and her rising protégé Jordan Bardella – enters the campaign in a strong position. Republican Bruno Retailleau could emerge from the right, France Unbowed's Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Socialist Olivier Faure from the left. Names from the centre such as MEP Raphaël Glucksmann and the former prime minister from Macron's Renaissance party, Manuel Valls, have been floated too. Olivier’s concern is not who the candidates are but how honest they will be about the situation. "No one is willing to say the country needs to make sacrifices," he warns. "France is in debt up to 115 percent of GDP. Public spending is too high. But nobody wants to tell voters that the social state cannot remain as generous as it is." He singles out one controversial, far-right figure: "The only person honest about the economic reality is Éric Zemmour – and there is zero chance he will be the next president."

Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Ukraine war is coming under strain as Washington advances its own peace efforts and urges Ankara to loosen its ties with Moscow. The pressure comes as Volodymyr Zelensky met Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, where Turkey repeated its offer to restart talks with Russia. Erdogan told reporters alongside Zelensky that Turkey was ready to resume the “Istanbul Process”, the term Ankara uses for earlier talks between Ukraine and Russia. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Erdogan has strengthened ties with Vladimir Putin and has said those relations help efforts to end the fighting. But Sinan Ciddi, of the US think tank the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said Washington’s latest actions suggest Ankara’s influence is fading. Ankara’s mediation, he said, had not produced results for either the Trump administration or its Western allies and has done little to move the conflict closer to a ceasefire or peace deal. “Washington is going its own way,” said Ciddi. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading Washington’s peace efforts, did not attend the meeting in Ankara despite earlier reports he would. Some analysts say Ankara overplayed its hand by suggesting it could use its ties with Putin to deliver a summit that never happened. Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant Changing diplomatic landscape Russia-Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov, of the German Academic Exchange Service, said Ankara’s role has been weakened, with other countries such as Hungary now seen as possible venues for talks. Donald Trump’s decision to deal directly with Moscow, he added, reduces the need for Turkey as a go-between. “Russia at the moment is not interested in any kind of peace negotiations with Kiev. But Putin and Moscow are interested in direct negotiations with the United States on this issue and possibly other issues,” Gasimov said, adding that Russia still values its ties with Ankara. “For Russia, contacts with Turkey are of paramount importance, being isolated by anti-Russian sanctions.” Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Energy pressure on Ankara Erdogan has refused to enforce most Western sanctions on Russia, saying his relationship with Moscow is needed to build peace. But during Erdogan’s September visit to Washington, Trump told him to end imports of Russian energy, which make up around half of Turkey’s needs. Erdogan appears to be responding, as Russian oil imports have fallen in recent weeks. Ankara is also trying to strengthen its security ties with the European Union. Direct summits between Putin and Erdogan were once common but are now rare, with their meetings limited to the sidelines of international events. “There is clearly a move, more effort to restore and bolster relationships with the Western world,” former Turkish ambassador Timur Soylemez told RFI. Trump tests Turkey's energy dependence on Russia with lure of US power Balancing relations with Russia Soylemez said Ankara will still try to avoid harming its relations with Moscow. “The view from Ankara is that it’s never a zero-sum game. Actually, the trick is to prevent it from being a zero-sum game. I think that would be an ongoing effort right now,” Soylemez said. Turkey’s ability to balance both sides, he added, remains important for a long-term peace. “Turkish diplomacy and Turkey in general have shown there is a role for us to play,” Soylemez said. “For example, the Black Sea, when it comes to prison exchange, when it comes to de-escalation on different topics. Basically, because we have a channel to both sides and we’re trusted by both sides.” Turkey is working with its Black Sea NATO partners on mine clearance. Analysts say this could later help secure safe passage for Ukrainian ships under a peace deal. But the targeting on Monday of a Turkish-flagged ship carrying a gas cargo at the port of Izmail in Ukraine by suspected Russian drones shows the risks Turkey faces as it tries to strengthen relations with Western allies without provoking Moscow.

Israeli-Turkish relations were dealt another blow when a Turkish court issued an arrest warrant on genocide charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials, a move strongly condemned by Israel. As bilateral relations deteriorate, Israel is stepping up defence cooperation with Turkey's rivals, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey has ongoing territorial disputes with both – over maritime and airspace rights in the Aegean Sea, and the division of Cyprus following Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island is recognised only by Turkey. Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli claims Israel's deepening partnerships with Athens and Nicosia is aimed at countering the growing threat posed by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "The doctrine of Erdogan is extremely dangerous. It's extremely dangerous for Israel, and we see Erdogan's Turkey as the new Iran, nothing less. It's very dangerous for Cyprus and it's very dangerous for Greece," said Chikli. This month, Israeli and Greek warships held joint military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean. The drill followed similar exercises by the country's air forces. While Ankara played a key role in bringing about a ceasefire in the Gaza war, tensions have continued. "We saw Turkey issuing arrest warrants against 37 high-level Israelis, but I think it also relates to the fact that the ceasefire is fragile. We are not entirely sure we are moving in a positive direction," said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Defence talks However, Lindenstrauss claims the Gaza ceasefire has opened the door to an acceleration in deepening cooperation with Greece. "We see the ceasefire is definitely seen as the green light to proceed in cooperation. We see defence deals... serious defence deals are being discussed," she added. Israeli ministers visited Athens this month for defence talks. Israel has already sold Greece and Cyprus some of its most sophisticated weapons systems, causing alarm in Ankara. "We see an alignment of the Greek, Greek Cypriot [sic] and Israeli navies. One cannot deny the risk that this will embolden them [Greece and Cyprus]... with Israeli support,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc, of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. Cyprus could become an increasingly focal point for Turkish-Israeli rivalries, given its strategic location. The United Kingdom has two military bases on the island, with the United States having a presence on these. Turkey, meanwhile, has an air base in the soi-disant Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. "The island is like a static aircraft carrier; it can dominate the whole of the Middle East and Turkey as well," warns former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik, who is now a journalist. "A fighter plane that lifts off from Cyprus can get to Ankara in 15 minutes maximum. Turkey wants the island to be a security zone for itself. Plus, the Turks have even thought about setting up a new naval and airbase." Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Turkey's recent purchases of Eurofighter jets, along with a missile development programme encompassing hypersonic and ballistic capabilities, are also fuelling Israeli concerns. "It's not clear why a status quo actor should have such a missile programme," said Israeli analyst Lindenstrauss. "For example, Israel doesn't have a missile programme despite the many threats it faces. I think middle and long-range missiles do suggest this is something more related to offensive intentions... I think all actors that have tense relations with Turkey are watching these developments," she added.  Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island US influence US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack sought to downplay tensions, dismissing any threat of conflict between Turkey and Israel. “Turkey and Israel will not be at war with each other. In my opinion, it’s not going to happen. And you are going to get alignment from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean," he said, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue, a Middle East security forum, on 1 November.  US President Donald Trump, who retains powerful influence over both governments, regional analysts suggest, could play a key role in managing, if not resolving tensions, given his goal of bringing peace and stability to the region. "[Washington] are very concerned. This is a topic that gets a lot of people's attention. The United States has certainly been trying to mediate and sort of bring tensions down,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank. Guvenc doesn't rule out a reset in regional relations, but warns that for now the region remains in the grip of an escalating arms race, fuelilng further mistrust and the risky strategy of "my enemy's enemy is my friend". "We have partnerships – alliances of convenience, pragmatic, tactically motivated alliances – but you never know. I mean, Turkey and Israel may mend fences, and this may create a totally different strategic, regional geopolitics than the one we are talking about today. So everything is in flux, and the balances and the alliances may shift in a very short time."

Europe’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” has become more urgent than ever. In this edition of The International Report, Jan van der Made examines how the continent’s defence ambitions continue to be both shaped and constrained by reliance on the United States. With insights from experts Bart van den Berg and Guntram Wolff, the programme considers whether Europe can develop the industries and alliances necessary to stand independently in an uncertain world.

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara’s sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans. “Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country’s largest investors, were ransacked during last month’s violence. The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals. After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo. “There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.” Widening rift While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999. Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region. “There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia. “So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.” Criminalising identity: Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community under threat Changing alliances The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia. However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey’s relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. “Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.” Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara’s wider ambitions in the Balkans. “Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories. “The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don’t like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.” Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island Turkish expansion Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region. “They’re expanding their markets; they’re expanding their capabilities; they’re expanding their influence,” Ivanov said. Turkey’s renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That’s natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots." However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned. As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten. The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours. “Ankara also has to be mindful of its own limitations of its own Balkan ambitions," Vuksanovic. said. "Because otherwise it can push majority Christian Orthodox nations like the Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians to work against the Turks if the Turks are perceived to be too provocative or aggressive.”

International human rights groups are calling for the withdrawal of proposed legislation against Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community, who warn that the law could effectively criminalise their community, which is already facing a growing legal crackdown. This week, the New York-based Human Rights Watch called on the Turkish government to drop a proposed law targeting the country’s LGBTQI+ community. Amnesty International has made a similar demand. Rights groups sound the alarm The proposed legislation, which was leaked to the media, criminalises attitudes and actions deemed contrary to biological sex, carrying sentences of up to three years in prison. “It’s really one of the worst reforms, or proposed reforms, we’ve seen in many years,” warns Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch. “Because it basically says that the government or the authorities can decide that certain behaviour and attitudes are contrary to biological sex and general morality, and are criminal on that basis.” Turkey's Pride struggling to survive amid LGBTQ+ crackdown Widespread impact Sinclair-Webb claims that with the proposed law criminalising the promotion of the LGBTQI+ community, its impact would be far-reaching. “That could affect journalists reporting on matters connected with gender, sexuality and gender identity. It could mean NGOs working to defend the rights of LGBTQI+ people from stigmatisation and discrimination.” Since the foundation of the Turkish Republic in 1923, homosexuality has never been criminalised. But LGBTQI+ rights advocates warn that this could change, given the broadly written nature of the proposed law. “It’s not even same-sex sexual acts that are criminalised. It’s just your appearance. Because the law says anything against biological sex. I mean, it could be very widely interpreted,” explains Öner Ceylan of Lambda a LGBTQI+ rights group in Turkey “So, this could be a woman with short hair or wearing trousers,” adds Ceylan. “Let’s say I’m on the streets, I’m being myself, and I can go to jail for it for three months. Then I’m released, and what happens next? I can easily go back to jail according to that law. So it can be a perfect excuse to imprison an LGBTQI+ person.” Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Decade of crackdowns Under the proposed law, people could face between three months and three years in prison, opening the door to lengthy pre-trial detention and the risk of mass arrests  - a prospect that worries rights groups. Since the early 2000s, Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community has become increasingly visible and vibrant, particularly in Istanbul, with gay clubs, cafés and bars. The city once hosted large Pride marches, with the 2015 event drawing over one hundred thousand people. However, for the past decade, Turkey’s religiously conservative government has been cracking down on the community in the name of protecting the family. Pride marches have been banned since 2015. “Now they’ve banned any kind of LGBTQI+ event in the public sphere,” explains Yıldız Tar of Kaos, an LGBTQI+ group. “We no longer share public venues or their addresses. So we are already living a kind of criminalised life, as if many queer people coming together is a criminal activity, which it is not.” Tar warns that the proposed law represents the endgame in the government’s campaign. “It’s the result of a decade-long war against LGBTQI+ people, and if this law passes, this is the last step.” Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Rising rhetoric and rising In September, the Turkish Interior Ministry filed a criminal complaint against openly gay pop singer Mabel Matiz, alleging that one of his songs violated morals and obscenity laws. Meanwhile, an all-women pop group, Manifest, was detained under the country’s morality laws for one of their performances, prompting the group to end their sell-out national tour. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been ramping up his rhetoric against the LGBTQI+ community, even equating it with terrorism. The proposed legislation also targets the country’s transgender community, banning gender-affirming healthcare for those under the age of 25. The LGBTQI+ community has vowed to step up its protests against the law and has secured the support of Turkey’s two main opposition parties in opposing it. But Tar warns that if the law passes, many in the community will likely flee the country -  though he says he and others are ready to resist, whatever the cost. “We will continue to do our work, to share the very basic knowledge that being LGBTQI+ is not a threat to society. It’s not a threat to the family,” declares Tar. “But it will be harder, and most of us will end up in jail.”

The landslide defeat of Turkey's ally in the Turkish Cypriot elections could now force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to drop his push for a permanent partition of Cyprus and boost efforts to reset ties with the European Union. Securing 63 percent of the vote, Tufan Erhurman’s victory in last weekend's election took Erdogan by surprise. “The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik. Erhurman’s Republican Turkish Party backs a united island. Erdogan supported incumbent Ersin Tatar, whose National Unity Party wants two separate states. “Ankara had amassed all its political clout on the island," Cevik added. "It had sent its vice president five times to the island; it had sent numerous delegations led by deputies and mayors.” It failed to win Turkish Cypriots over because “the essence of it was Turkey’s interference, which created huge resentment among the Turkish Cypriots”, Cevik said. Cyprus has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Erdogan had pushed for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Shift away from partition Analysts say Erhurman’s win has dealt a final blow to Erdogan’s two state strategy for Cyprus. “The two independent states idea was dead on arrival, and now it's officially dead,” said Soli Ozel, of Kadir Has University’s International Relations Department. He said Erdogan’s reaction to the election points to a change in approach. “President Erdogan's message of congratulations to [Erhurman] suggests at least for the moment he's ready to turn the page on that.” Erdogan’s stance is very different to that of his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be overturned and for the north of the island to be integrated with Turkey. Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the election gives Erdogan a chance to drop a policy that has become a growing obstacle to improving EU defence relations. Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances EU ties on the line Cyprus has long blocked Turkey’s hopes of deeper EU defence cooperation and access to a 150 billion euro arms programme known as SAFE. “So far, everything has been blocked by the Cyprus problem,” said Kuneralp, adding that the election result offers a rare opening. “Now you've got these election results that open a small window. So that's why the present situation might not be so bad for Erdogan.” European governments see Turkey as an important partner in defending themselves against Russia. A shift to unification talks could suit both sides, analyst Soli Ozel said. “Given Russia's proclivities, it makes sense for [Turkey] to be part of SAFE. And it doesn't make sense for the Europeans because of the Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition to leaving Turkey out,” he said. Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Changing priorities EU leaders have new priorities that could help clear a path. “The European Union is no longer the European Union of our grandmothers; the issues of human rights and rule of law no longer count for anything," Ozel said.  "That's a relation that is cleared of its thorns.” Turkey’s backsliding on democracy has long held back cooperation with Brussels. Human rights is not expected to feature much during German Chancellor Frederick Mertz’s visit to Ankara later this month. Deepening defence ties is set to top the agenda, but how far Erdogan supports unification could decide his next steps with the EU.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey wants to take part in rebuilding Gaza and is ready to join a peacekeeping force once the fighting ends, however analysts warn strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv could stand in the way.  Turkey responded to a call from Hamas for assistance with locating the bodies of Israeli hostages still unaccounted for in the ruins of Gaza, sending specialists to help in the search. Ankara maintains close ties with Hamas, which some analysts say could make it a useful mediator – although strained relations with Israel could stand in the way of any peacekeeping or reconstruction mission, despite Turkey's experience in these areas. “Turkey does have expertise for this – it has a doctrine,” said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government think tank. “In Afghanistan, Bosnia, some African countries like Somalia or Sudan, and in Kosovo, Turkey contributed either through its Tika aid agency, responsible for reconstruction, or through its armed forces.” Aslan believes Turkey’s approach would be similar in Gaza. “Turkey will send soldiers for sure, for the protection of the civilian units,” he said. Hamas says committed to Gaza truce and returning hostage remains High risk However, others warn the mission would not be easy. “Turkey can become part of this protection force, but it will not be easy. At the moment it seems more problematic than many people assume,” said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. Bagci fears Gaza could slide into chaos as rival groups fight for control. “There are fights between Hamas and the clans,” he said. “It will not be easy because Hamas has to give up its weapons, which is the primary condition. Hamas is not 100 percent trusting Turkey – if not, Israel will probably act.” Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances Deep mistrust Any Turkish deployment would also require Israel’s consent, which appears unlikely given the collapse in relations between the country's leaders. Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have regularly traded insults since the start of the current conflict in Gaza, and Ankara’s vocal support for Hamas has further deepened mistrust. Israeli analysts say the government is hesitant to allow Turkish troops in Gaza, citing deep tensions and mistrust between the two countries. Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said there is little enthusiasm for involving a Muslim peacekeeping force, as any casualties could inflame anger across the Muslim world and worsen relations. “This conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions between Turkey and Israel, particularly between the two leaders,” she added. Counting on Washington Any Turkish role in Gaza would likely need US backing to move forward, given Israel’s resistance, observers warn. Aslan believes Washington could help bridge the divide. “Erdogan does have a charming power over Hamas,” he said. “So it’s on Turkey to urge Hamas to accept some things, and it’s on the United States to push Israel to accept the terms of a long-term peace. I believe that Trump is well aware of it, because there is no trust of Israel. That’s a fact, not only for Gazans or Palestinians or Turks, but [across the world] overall.” Aslan says trust would be essential to persuading Hamas to disarm. “I believe Hamas will lay down their arms when they feel safe, and they have to see friendly faces in Gaza to be persuaded." Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Road to normalisation Turkish involvement in Gaza could also help pave the way for a reset in relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Bagci believes Erdogan is hoping for political change in Israel to make that possible. “There will be elections,” he said. “Erdogan [is counting on] Netanyahu losing. But if he wins, then he has to deal with him because both sides have to be pragmatic and realistic.” Bagci said much of the fiery rhetoric from both men is aimed at domestic audiences, with both having reputations as political survivors and pragmatists. If peace efforts gain ground, observers say cooperation in Gaza could offer a path towards rebuilding trust – and serve both countries as they compete for regional influence. (with AFP)

In this edition of International Report, RFI talks with David Ondracka, former president of Transparency International Czech Republic, about the country’s recent parliamentary elections. Populist billionaire Andrej Babiš has swept back into power after voters, frustrated by unfulfilled promises and a stagnant quality of life, turned their backs on the centre-right government. According to Ondračka, Babiš’s resurgence reflects deep public disillusionment with the political establishment - alongside his skill as a pragmatist who “tells people whatever they want to hear.” While Brussels voices unease over his return, Ondračka argues that Babiš is neither aligned with Moscow nor guided by ideology. Instead, he describes him as a tycoon whose loyalties lie squarely “where the money is” - inside the European Union. Czech populist's comeback a win for politics of pragmatism in shifting Europe As the Czech Republic enters coalition talks and joins Hungary, Slovakia and Poland in navigating a shifting political landscape, Ondračka warns that Europe’s populist wave is far from receding, continuing to test the strength of the liberal centre.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing growing pressure from Washington to cut Turkey’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas – and end his long-standing balancing act between Moscow and the West. Erdogan said this week that Turkey would work with the United States on civil nuclear energy, in a new signal to Washington that Ankara is looking west for its energy needs. Turkish companies last month signed a 20-year, multibillion-dollar deal with American firms to buy liquefied natural gas. The agreement came during Erdogan’s visit to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump in late September. During that meeting, Trump urged Erdogan to reduce ties with Moscow and end Turkey’s reliance on Russian oil and gas. “In a sense, he [Trump] is offering a grand bargain to Erdogan,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution. She summed up the deal: “Stop the hedging, stop the stuff with Russia, stop the geopolitical balancing, and then let’s re-establish the partnership, and then we can move along and can really become key partners in the region.” Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Economic pressure Trump often praises Erdogan as a “friend”, but the US leader has shown he is willing to use economic pressure. During his first term, he triggered a collapse in the Turkish lira over the jailing of an American pastor. He could again target Ankara with secondary sanctions if Turkey keeps importing Russian energy. Russian fossil fuels still provide nearly half of Turkey’s total energy. Zaur Gasimov, a Russian-Turkish expert with the German Academic Exchange Service, said Europe’s experience shows how costly a sudden break with Moscow could be. “It was the case with some Western European countries in 2022 that caused an augmentation of the prices,” said Gasimov. “And the Turkish economy is struggling with inflation that would immediately and heavily affect the life of the average citizen. No party power in Turkey would take such a decision.” Ankara has ruled out ending its Russian energy contracts, but oil imports from Russia have fallen to their lowest levels in a year. Some gas deals, signed decades ago, are due for renewal. Analysts say Turkey may use that moment to slowly cut its dependence on Moscow – a move that would deal a serious blow to Russia, which now relies on Turkey as its last major European gas customer. Druzhba pipeline: dependence, diplomacy and the end of Russian leverage in Europe Strategic balancing Energy trade has long been at the heart of Erdogan’s personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The partnership has survived the war in Ukraine, despite the fact Turkey also supplies arms and support to Kyiv. Turkey’s balancing act helps keep regional rivalries under control, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the Marshall Fund office in Ankara. “Turkey and Russia have been fighting proxy wars in the Caucasus, in North Africa, in the Levant,” he said. “Turkey is getting the upper hand in the end. But Turkey could still manage its relationship with Russia.” Unluhisarcikli added that Ankara would want guarantees from the West before distancing itself from Moscow, since "it would have security implications on Turkey". Turkey would have to be "certain" that it would be welcomed back to Europe and have assurances from the United States, he suggested. Erdogan spoke with Putin by phone this week, though such contacts have reportedly become less frequent as their once-close relationship cools. Ankara remains aware of the risks: when Turkey accidentally shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border in 2015, Putin responded with sanctions that hit Turkish exports and tourism, and several Turkish soldiers in Syria were later killed in what Moscow called an accident. Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties Declining leverage With Russia weakened by sanctions and isolation over its war in Ukraine, analysts say its influence on Turkey is diminishing. “It is the window to Europe. It is a way to the outside world," Gasimov says. "The number of flights to Turkey is getting bigger and bigger. “For Russia, Turkey remains a very, very important partnership. So the leverage Moscow once possessed over Ankara is getting less and less.”

As efforts continue to resolve Israel’s war in Gaza, the conflict is threatening to destabilise the wider region. A rare joint naval exercise between once-rivals Turkey and Egypt is being seen as a warning to Israel, as long-standing alliances shift and new rival partnerships take shape across the Eastern Mediterranean. After a 13-year break, Turkish and Egyptian warships last week carried out a major naval drill in the Eastern Mediterranean. The exercise is the latest step in repairing ties after years of tension that began when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a close ally of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “It marks the consolidation of the improvement in relations,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, adding the drill sent “a powerful message to Israel of a new alignment”. Guvenc said naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean have typically involved Cyprus, Greece and Israel, but this time Egypt broke with those countries, signalling it was no longer part of the anti-Turkey camp in the region. Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump Shift in alliances The Turkish-Egyptian exercise follows years in which Cairo built strong ties with Ankara’s rivals in the region. The shift has not gone unnoticed in Israel. “Definitely, this is a major event that Turkey and Egypt have conducted a naval exercise after so many years,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. The joint drill comes as Ankara has expanded and modernised its navy in recent years. Lindenstrauss said this has unsettled some of Turkey’s neighbours, giving Israel common ground with Greece and Cyprus. “Some of them also have quite big disputes with Turkey, such as Cyprus and Greece,” she said. “Greece and Cyprus relations with Israel have been developing since 2010. We’ve seen a lot of military drills together. We saw weapons procurements between the three actors, and this has been going on for some time. So Israel is not alone.” Turkey has long-standing territorial disputes with Greece and the Greek Cypriot government in the Aegean and the Mediterranean. Guvenc said Israel has gained the upper hand over Turkey in their rivalry centred on Cyprus. "The Greek Cypriots acquired a very important air defence system from Israel and activated it. They made life far more difficult for the Turkish military, in particular for the Turkish Air Force," he said. "This gives you an idea about the shifting balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean as a result of Israel taking sides with Cyprus and Greece." Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence Tensions over Gaza Despite those rivalries, Turkey and Egypt are finding common ground in their opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza and in wider concerns over Israel’s growing regional power. In September, Sisi reportedly called Israel an enemy. “There is competition over who is the most dominant and important actor in the Middle East, in the Muslim world in general,” said Lindenstrauss. “I really can’t imagine a unified Turkish and Egyptian action against Israel. I can imagine them cooperating to pressure Israel to change its position, which is what is happening now.” Cairo and Ankara remain at odds over Libya, where they back rival governments. But analysts warn that the fallout from the Gaza conflict is increasingly shaping the region’s power calculations. Guvenc said the outcome of peace efforts could determine the future balance in the Mediterranean. “We see an alignment of Greece, Greek Cypriots and Israel. But once the Gaza issue is tackled, from an Israeli perspective, Turkey is strategically more important than these two countries,” he said. “But if the strategic makeup of the region may not secure a solution, we may see deterioration in the general situation. Then outside actors will be invited by one side or the other, such as Russia, China or even India, to further complicate the issue.”

When Truman Burbank finally realises that his life is a television show – every neighbour an actor, every event scripted – he faces a terrifying choice: walk through the exit door into the unknown, or carry on in a comfortable illusion. Is this is the predicament Europe is facing under Donald Trump’s second term? In his report for the European Sentiment Compass 2025, Pawel Zerka, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests Europe is living its own “Truman Show moment”. The United States, he says, is no longer the ally Europeans had been accustomed to having. Instead, under Trump, Washington is not only pulling the strings in trade, defence and digital disputes – it is waging an outright “culture war” on Europe. The big question is whether the EU has the courage to step off the set, reclaim its autonomy and begin writing its own story. Europe's uncertainty after Trump's first 100 days Trump 2.0 Transatlantic tensions are nothing new. Rows over trade, NATO spending and climate policy have flared under every president from Kennedy to Obama. But Zerka insists that Trump marks a rupture. “There is a clear difference vis-à-vis previous presidents, and even vis-à-vis Donald Trump 1.0,” he told RFI. “Before, we had never seen a US president targeting Europe so clearly and aggressively.” This time round, the barbs are sharper, the interventions more deliberate. Trump openly mocks Europe’s migration and climate policies, last week using the world stage of the United Nations to declare that Europeans are “going to hell” with their “crazy” ideas. Such rhetoric, Zerka argues, is not just bluster. It is part of a deliberate strategy to humiliate Europe, a way of painting the European Union as weak, dependent and incapable of agency. And this culture war is not confined to speeches, Zerka says – the Trump administration has moved from commentary to active interference. In Germany, US Vice President JD Vance and former Trump advisor Elon Musk openly backed the far-right AfD party during the country's legislative elections in February. Similar interference was seen in Poland, Romania and Ireland, where Washington lent support to Conor McGregor, a former mixed martial arts champion who had thrown his "Make Ireland Great Again" hat in the ring for the country's upcoming presidential election on 24 October, but withdrew from the race in September.  McGregor's political ambitions had been boosted by an invitation to the White House on St Patrick's Day, with Trump calling him his "favourite" Irish person. “We haven’t seen anything like this before,” Zerka stresses. “There’s such active involvement in domestic politics of European countries, supporting rivals of the governments in place – and very often those rivals are problematic political players.” “There is a lot of appetite among the European public for an assertive Europe, but leaders keep finding themselves in situations where they look ridiculous and Europe gets humiliated” – Pawel Zerka Europe’s new right: how the MAGA agenda crossed the Atlantic A Truman moment So what does it mean for Europe to “walk off the set”? In Truman Burbank’s case, it was about courage – daring to leave behind the artificial comfort of a staged life. For the EU, Zerka says, it is about dignity and identity. “European leaders must be ready,” he argues. “Currently they are buying time with Trump, because they depend so much on America for security, especially with Russia’s war in Ukraine. But the danger is that by playing along, they risk repeated humiliation – whether at NATO summits or in trade negotiations – where Europe ends up looking ridiculous to its own public and to the wider world.” The challenge, Zerka believes, is that many EU leaders still don’t grasp the true nature of the confrontation. They treat disputes over tariffs or defence spending as technical haggles, missing the larger picture – that they are part of a cultural battle over values, sovereignty and the very meaning of the West. Without that recognition, Europe risks stumbling from one Trump-scripted crisis to another, always reacting, never setting the agenda. The role of the prophet In The Truman Show, it was a character named Sylvia who first whispered the truth to Truman, that his life was staged. In today’s Europe, Zerka sees Denmark as playing that role. Trump’s suggestion that the US might buy Greenland directly questioned Danish sovereignty, giving Copenhagen a unique impetus for defending European autonomy. “Denmark is the one country really trying to show Europe the difference between reality and illusion,” Zerka says, adding though that Sweden and Finland, both scarred by the Russian threat and largely resistant to Trump’s personal appeal, could also be well placed to push for European autonomy. Then there are what he calls the “door holders”, the heavyweight countries whose choices could swing the EU’s future one way or another: France, Germany and Poland. Each stands at a crossroads. Elections in the coming years could see them drift towards the pro-Trump “director’s crew” – Hungary, Italy, Slovakia – or rally behind the prophets calling for strategic autonomy. The outcome, Zerka warns, will determine whether Europe claims its agency or sinks deeper into dependency. Can Europe withstand the ripple effect of the MAGA political wave? Walking the line However, with Russian aggression on its doorstep, Europe cannot simply sever ties with Washington. Yet, Zerka argues, the notion that Europeans must appease Trump to preserve the transatlantic bond is a fallacy. “It’s completely the other way around,” he says. “Only if Europe steps up in building its own capacities, and shows assertiveness, can it become a real partner rather than a subordinate.” That means investment in defence, technology and energy resilience. It also means recognising the culture war for what it is, and refusing to be defined by Trump’s caricatures. Trust in the EU is its strongest since 2007, with polls showing that citizens increasingly view the bloc not just as an economic club but as a community of shared values, and destiny. Zerka believes European leaders must harness the public appetite for a more assertive Europe. The risk of inaction, he warns, is cultural subordination. The reward of courage, by contrast, is the chance for Europe to write its own story, and participate in the transatlantic partnership as an equal.

Turkey has hailed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first White House visit in six years as a diplomatic win, though tensions over Donald Trump’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza still cast a shadow. Ankara is celebrating a diplomatic win after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hosted by US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday. In the Oval Office, Trump praised his guest in front of the world’s media. “He’s a highly respected man,” Trump said. “He’s respected very much in his country and throughout Europe and throughout the world, where they know him.” Erdogan smiled as he listened. The Turkish leader had been frozen out by President Joe Biden, who made clear his dislike for the Turkish leader. Trump, by contrast, has long cultivated a friendship with him. But even that relationship has limits, with Israel’s war on Gaza still a source of strain. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Restraint over Gaza Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, which he refuses to label a terrorist group, calling it instead a resistance movement. Yet he chose not to let the issue overshadow his visit. Analysts say this restraint was deliberate. “There’s been a concerted effort not to get into a spat about Gaza,” Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told RFI. “Uncharacteristically, he remains silent on the Gaza issue and that is by design.” During his trip, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel’s offensive in Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly, echoing broader international condemnation. He also met French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and welcomed France’s recognition of a Palestinian state. Erdogan is also seeking wider backing as concerns over Israel’s actions grow, an issue that also came up in his talks with Trump. “Turkey’s concerns with Israel are not actually limited to Gaza,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. He said Ankara is also uneasy about Israel’s actions in neighbouring states, adding that the two countries’ policies towards Syria clash sharply. “Turkey wants a stable Syria and one that’s centralised,” he said. “Whereas Israel wants a decentralised and less stable Syria.” Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Energy and Russia Turkey’s close ties with Russia risk becoming another flashpoint. Sitting beside Erdogan at the Oval Office, Trump called for an end to Turkish purchases of Russian energy. He also criticised Erdogan’s long-standing policy of balancing relations between Washington and Moscow. “Trump does not want a balancing Turkey, at least today,” said Aydintasbas. “That was more obvious than ever in his rhetoric and his dealings with Erdogan.” She said Erdogan had assumed for the past decade that his balancing act between the West and Russia was acceptable. “It must come as a surprise,” she added. Turkey is the third-largest importer of Russian oil and gas. But in a move seen as an attempt to placate Trump, Ankara this week signed a multibillion-dollar deal to buy US liquefied natural gas over 20 years. The two leaders also signed a strategic agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, which could pave the way for Turkey to buy US-made nuclear reactors. As Trump rails at UN and shifts Ukraine stance, Macron urges US to end Gaza war Limited gains Despite these gestures, analysts said Erdogan achieved little in return. He had hoped Trump would lift a US embargo on the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets. Instead, Trump only gave a vague promise to address the issue. For Erdogan, however, the White House meeting itself may have been the main prize. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said before the meeting that Trump wanted to give Erdogan “legitimacy”. “For Erdogan, this is a big win,” said Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. The Turkish leader, he said, has long sought a White House photo-op to showcase at home. “He gets to show that he has met the US president, has gravitas on the world stage and is signing deals with Washington,” Ciddi added. “At a time when he is jailing leaders and dismantling democratic governance inside Turkey, he is being legitimised by the leader of the so-called free world.”

The legal noose is tightening around Turkey’s main opposition party, with waves of arrests targeting mayors and local officials. But the troubles of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) could deepen further, as a court case threatens the removal of its leadership. "We are fighting for the future of Turkey's democracy," said party leader Ozgur Ozel to tens of thousands of supporters at a rally in Ankara on Saturday. Ozel has been travelling the country since March, when Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested on graft charges. The case marked the start of a legal assault on the CHP. Ozel now speaks at rallies twice a week, despite his often hoarse voice. The party is also defending itself in court over alleged voting irregularities at a congress two years ago that elected Ozel as leader. If the court rules against them, Ozel and the rest of the party leadership could be removed and replaced by state-appointed trustees. "It's unprecedented," said political analyst Sezin Oney of the Politics news portal. "There has not been such a purge, such a massive crackdown on the opposition, and there is no end in sight, that's the issue." Macron and Erdogan find fragile common ground amid battle for influence Arrests and polls On Wednesday, another CHP mayor in Istanbul was jailed, bringing the total to 16 detained mayors and more than 300 other officials. Most face corruption charges. The arrests come as the CHP’s new leadership is stepping up its challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Recent opinion polls give Imamoglu and other CHP figures double-digit leads over the president. Oney said the prosecutions are part of Erdogan’s wider strategy. "He's trying to complete the transformation, the metamorphosis as I call it, of Turkey to become a full authoritarian country," she said. "There is an opposition but the opposition is a grotesque opposition, that can never have the power actually to be in government. But they give the perception as if the country is democratic because there are elections." Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening ‘Multi-front attack’ Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP’s foreign affairs coordinator, said the party is under siege. "We are under a multi-front attack from all directions at almost every level, running from one court case to another," he said. He argued that Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is using fear to force defections. "Sixteen of our mayors are in jail right now, and they threaten our mayors. You either join our party or you face a jail term," Uzgel said. Erdogan rejects any suggestion of coercion and insists the judiciary is independent. Since he came to power more than 20 years ago, however, not a single AKP mayor has been convicted on graft charges – though on Friday at least two local mayors from the ruling party were detained as part of a corruption investigation. Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Political risks Despite appearing dominant, Erdogan may face a backlash. Atilla Yesilada, a political analyst with Global Source Partners, said the crackdown is fuelling public anger. "You look at recent polls, the first complaint remains economic conditions, but justice rose to number two. These things don't escape people's notice; that's what I mean when I say Erdogan took a huge political risk with his career," he said. Erdogan currently trails behind several potential challengers, but elections are still more than two years away. Yesilada said much depends on the stance of Erdogan’s ally Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party. "It's quite possible at some point, Bahceli will say enough is enough, you are destroying the country, and may also end the coalition," he said. Bahceli formed an informal alliance with Erdogan in 2018, when Turkey switched to a presidential system. Erdogan relies on Bahceli’s parliamentary deputies to pass constitutional reforms needed to secure another term. Bahceli has voiced concern about the pressure on the CHP, which has been trying to win his support. But with the court expected to rule next month on the party’s leadership, the CHP says it will keep fighting. "The only thing that we can do is rely on our people, our electorate, and the democratic forces in the country. We are not going to give up," said Uzgel.

Following years of tension, the presidents of Turkey and France are finding new areas of cooperation. Ukraine is at the centre of this shift, but the Palestinian territories, the Caucasus and Africa are also emerging as shared priorities. However, analysts warn that serious differences remain, making for an uneasy partnership. French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for the creation of a military force to secure any peace deal made between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey, which boasts NATO’s second-largest army, is seen as a key player in any such move – especially given that Washington has ruled out sending US troops. For its part, Ankara has said it is open to joining a peacekeeping mission. “Macron finally came to terms [with the fact] that Turkey is an important player, with or without the peace deal. Turkey will have an important role to play in the Black Sea and in the Caucasus,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. Macron last month held a lengthy phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, focused on the Ukraine conflict, and thanked him for his diplomatic efforts to end the war. Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties Turning point For Professor Federico Donelli of Trieste University, this marks a dramatic turnaround. Previously, the two leaders have frequently exchanged sharp words, especially over Turkey’s rising influence in West Africa and the Sahel. “In Paris, public opinion and the press criticised this move by Turkey a lot,” said Donelli. “At the same time, the rhetoric of some Turkish officers, including President Erdogan, was strongly anti-French. They were talking a lot about the neocolonialism of France and so on.” Donelli added that cooperation over Ukraine has pushed France to reconsider its Africa stance. “As a consequence of Ukraine, the position of France has changed, and they are now more open to cooperating with Turkey. And they [understand] that in some areas, like the Western Sahel, Turkey is better than Russia, better than China,” he said. Analysts also see new openings in the Caucasus. A peace agreement signed in August between Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey, and Armenia, which was supported by France, could provide further common ground. Macron last month reportedly pressed Erdogan to reopen Turkey’s border with Armenia, which has been closed since 1993. Turkish and Armenian officials met on the countries' border on Thursday to discuss the normalisation of relations. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade 'Pragmatic cooperation' But clear differences remain, especially when it comes to Syria. The rise to power of Turkish-backed President Ahmed al-Sharaa is seen as undermining any French role there. “For Erdogan, the victory of al-Sharaa in Damascus on 24 December is the revenge of the Ottoman Empire, and Ankara doesn't want to see the French come back to Syria,” said Fabrice Balanche, a professor of international relations at Lyon University. Balanche argued that France is losing ground to Turkey across the region. “It's not just in Syria, but also in Lebanon – the Turks are very involved, and in Iraq, too. We [the French] are in competition with the Turks. They want to expel France from the Near East,” he said. Despite this rivalry, Guvenc predicted cooperation will continue where interests align. “In functional terms, Turkey's contributions are discussed, and they will do business, but it's going to be transactional and pragmatic cooperation, nothing beyond that,” he said. One such area could be the Palestinian territories. Both Macron and Erdogan support recognition of a Palestinian state and are expected to raise the issue at this month’s United Nations General Assembly. For now, shared interests are likely to outweigh differences – even if only temporarily.

The bombing of the Druzhba pipeline has disrupted oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia and exposed new political rifts in Central Europe. RFI spoke with Andreas Goldthau of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy about the wider implications for regional energy security and the shifting dynamics between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. The bombing was attributed by Russian and Hungarian officials to Ukrainian drone forces, with Ukraine justifying the strike as part of its broader campaign against Russia following the latter's invasion in 2022. The strike resulted in oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia being cut off, and also exposed political divides at the heart of Central Europe’s energy security, sparking a diplomatic fallout between Kyiv, Budapest and Bratislava. "The bombing drives home the point that Russian energy supplies remain a point of contest, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, which remains dependent on [oil] coming from the east,” said Andreas Goldthau, director of the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt in Germany. Pipeline dispute shows Central Europe’s struggle to cut ties with Russian oil 'Not a matter of supply' Despite EU-wide efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy – which Goldthau acknowledges is "no longer a big issue for Europe as a whole" – Hungary and Slovakia stand as outliers, locked into long-term contracts and dependent on the Druzhba line. When the pipeline was struck multiple times in August and September, forcing a halt to crude deliveries, both governments were forced to draw on strategic reserves. But how Hungary and Slovakia are coping, is “more a political choice than anything else," Goldthau told RFI. "It is not a matter of supply, but a matter of price and transport logistics, because it could eat into the margins of refineries if you have to source it from other parts and other geographies." Central Europe, he added, “could source through ports in Croatia, and they could have done this already by now, but they chose not to”. 'A political decision' Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government responded to the strike angrily, calling it “an attack on Hungary’s sovereignty”. The country's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, said: “Ukraine knows very well that the Druzhba pipeline is vital for Hungary’s and Slovakia’s energy supply, and that such strikes harm us far more than Russia.” Both Budapest and Bratislava have demanded EU intervention and accused Kyiv of jeopardising their security, just as reserves were being tapped to keep refineries running. From Washington to Warsaw: how MAGA influence is reshaping Europe’s far right Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested the attacks might hinge on Hungary lifting its EU accession veto, warning: "The existence of the friendship depends on what Hungary’s position is." Ukrainian officials also say that Hungary and Slovakia have failed to diversify away from Russian oil, despite ample opportunity and EU support. According to Goldthau, Russian leverage over the EU "is gone, by and large". He explained: "The EU’s main suppliers are now the United States and Norway. Kazakhstan comes into play, but Russia no longer plays a role." Ukraine, he noted, “no longer gets any Russian oil or any Russian gas, it merely functions as a transit country”. The attack and subsequent diplomatic spat might have provided Hungary and Slovakia “a perfect occasion to pivot and seek alternative supplies, but it’s a purely political decision to do that or not,” Goldthau said. "Whatever changes that [decision] lies at home, and not abroad."

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned of military action against the Syrian Democratic Forces over its failure to honour an agreement to merge its military with the new regime in Damascus. In a move steeped in symbolism, Turkey’s leader chose recent celebrations marking the Ottoman Turks' defeat of the Byzantine Christians at the Battle of Malazgirt in 1071 to issue an ultimatum to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). "Those who turn to Ankara and Damascus will win," Erdogan bellowed to thousands of supporters on 26 August. "If the sword is unsheathed, there will be no room left for pens and words." Turkey, a strong ally of Syria, has a military presence in the country and the two governments recently signed a defence training agreement. But Turkey is unhappy with the presence of the SDF, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab forces, which controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey's own predominantly Kurdish region. Peace or politics? Turkey’s fragile path to ending a decades-long conflict Buying time The SDF is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has for years been fighting Turkey for greater Kurdish minority rights. The PKK is listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the European Union and the United States. But Ankara is engaged in a peace process with the Kurdish militants, who have committed to disbanding. However, Kurdish analyst Mesut Yegen, of the TIM think tank in Istanbul, says the disarmament process would be limited to Kurds from Turkey, and doesn’t include SDF forces in Syria. Erdogan is now ramping up pressure on the SDF to honour an agreement its leader Mazloum Abdi signed in March with Syria's new President, Ahmed Al Sharaa, to merge his military forces with the new regime in Damascus. The deal is backed by the US, which has a military force in the SDF-controlled region as part of its war against the Islamic State. But, according to Fabrice Balanche from Lyon University: "The SDF has no intention of implementing the agreement made in March. Mazloum just wanted to gain time." Balanche points out that Abdi's SDF is a staunchly secular organisation and remains deeply suspicious of Sharaa's jihadist connections. Recent attacks on Syria's Druze minority by forces linked to Sharaa appear to confirm the SDF's fears over merging with the Damascus regime, says Balanche. Syria’s interim president vows justice for Druze after deadly clashes 'Israel would like a weak Syria' At the same time, Erdogan is aware that the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish state on its border could be exploited by its rival Israel, which is looking for non-Arab allies in the region. Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat and an analyst for Turkey's Mediyascope news outlet, said: "Strategically, Israel would like a weak Syria, a weak Damascus, a weak Beirut and a weak Tehran." Turkey has carried out military incursions against the SDF, and its forces remain massed on the border. But Balanche says American presence there will likely deter any new Turkish military action. However, he warns that Ankara could seek to fuel Kurdish Arab rivalries within the SDF, with the fall of former ruler Bashar al-Assad last December. Turkey walks a fine line as conflict between Israel and Iran cools "It is different now, you have a Sunni leader in Damascus, and many [Arab] tribes, many people, prefer to join Damascus," he explained. "So the risk is a proxy war. Of course, for the new regime, it would be a disaster. If you have no peace, you have no investment, you have no trust." The dilemma facing Ankara is that any new conflict against the SDF would likely weaken the Sharaa regime – a key ally.

Turkish armed forces could play a major role in securing any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. For Ankara, this would be a chance to reassert itself at a time when many fear it is being sidelined by Western allies. European and US military chiefs last week reportedly presented ideas to their national security advisers on how to guarantee Ukraine’s security if there is a peace deal with Russia. The discussions followed a summit of European leaders in Washington with US President Donald Trump on ending the conflict. "It's going to be a big challenge, but they will find ways of tackling that challenge without the US troops on the ground," said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. "It will be a novelty because Europe has never carried out any peacekeeping or stabilization operation of this magnitude before." Turkey, with NATO’s second-largest army, is seen as a possible option. "Turkey is an option, you know. And it seems that there is some talk of Turkish contribution," Guvenc added. Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal raises hopes of Turkish border reopening Ankara signals readiness On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Ukraine’s security. Ankara has already signalled it could take part in monitoring any peace deal, but Moscow’s approval would be necessary. "If the parties agree, Turkey may send our troops to peacekeeping operations," said Mesut Casin, a former presidential adviser and professor at Istanbul’s Yeditepe University. Casin pointed to Turkey’s past record in UN operations. "Turkey joined many UN peacekeeping operations in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Korea, and in many other peacekeeping operations. The Turkish army is very powerful," he said. "Also, remember Putin is talking many times with Erdogan, and at the same time, Zelensky is visiting Ankara." Turkey and Italy boost cooperation in bid to shape Libya’s political future Balancing Moscow and Kyiv Since the start of the war, Erdogan has kept good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Ankara has refused to apply most international sanctions on Moscow, while at the same time selling vital military hardware to Kyiv. That balancing act has raised questions among European partners. "Turkey ought to have been at the Washington meeting," said Soli Ozel, an international relations scholar at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna. Even though Turkey borders both Ukraine and Russia, Erdogan was excluded from this month’s summit between Trump and European leaders. "The fact that it wasn't backs the observation that the bigger players or the major partners are not bringing Turkey center stage, they're sidelining it," Ozel added. Despite this, Ankara remains strategically important. "They keep it in the play, it's important because if you're going to need troops, you're going to need Turkey. If you're going to talk about the Black Sea security, you need Turkey. And so you cannot really dismiss Turkey," Ozel said. But he warned that mistrust is limiting Ankara’s role. "You're not making it part of the process that will hopefully lead to a conclusion or a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. There is a lack of trust, and I think that has something to do with the way Turkey has conducted its diplomacy," Ozel said. Peace or politics? Turkey’s fragile path to ending a decades-long conflict Doubts over influence Some analysts suggest Ankara hopes Europe’s reliance on Turkish forces or its navy for Black Sea security could help restore influence. But others see limited gains. "There is no automatic increase in Turkey's influence and credibility as a result of taking part in such operations," said Guvenc. "It does have a certain impact, but on the other hand, such contributions do not change other Western partners' views of Turkey." Rather than a reset with Europe, Guvenc sees a continuation of the current dynamic. "What might happen is yet another manifestation of transactionalism on both sides. And if Turkey contributes to peacekeeping in Ukraine, probably President Erdogan expects concrete benefits that will help him manage the deteriorating economic situation in Turkey. "Therefore, you cannot build a comprehensive and sustainable relationship built on that transactionalism on both sides."