Iowa Down Ballot

Chuck Grassley turns 93, soon becoming the second longest-serving senator in U.S. history — though Eric argues the milestone doesn’t sidestep the harder question of age and capacity. Laura notes he still won’t rule out running again in 2028, when he’d be 95.The panel also digs into November’s ballot amendment requiring a supermajority to raise income and corporate taxes. Kathie lays out the opposition’s case: it won’t stop tax hikes, just push lawmakers toward more regressive options like a sales tax hike. Laura shares her repeated, unsuccessful attempts to pin down Rob Sand’s position, despite his own warnings about a looming state budget shortfall.Candidate visibility comes up too — Rob Sand’s near-daily public events versus Zach Lahn’s more private appearances, and Ashley Hinson skipping JD Vance’s Council Bluffs stop this week. Iowa’s 2nd District also gets a look back, as Laura’s early call that it would be a genuine toss-up, given the district’s dramatic Obama-to-Trump swing, has now been borne out.The episode wraps with congratulations to Iowa Capital Dispatch’s Clark Kauffman, whose reporting on nursing home abuse and neglect earned the outlet its first-ever Media Impact Award from the Iowa Developmental Disabilities Council.This weekly podcast continues to grow. In downloads, views, followers, subscriptions, you name it. As we get closer to the November election we’ll have news and info that you won’t find anywhere else (like normal.) If you’d like to become a paid subscriber to help cover costs of production please click the button above. You can also make a one-time donation using the button below. Thanks to all of you that have already contributed. This isn’t possible without you!Auto-generated transcript below:Dave Price: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I am Dave Price. This week, grab your you-know-what — Chuck Grassley celebrates another birthday. The crystal ball makes another move, and it involves another Iowa congressional district. Plus, we’re going to talk about that constitutional amendment, which could make it more difficult to raise taxes in the future. With us this week, Kathie Obradovich — I was there when she received yet another award, we’ll talk about that this week — and Laura Belin.Laura Belin: Good morning.Dave Price: And back by popular demand, longtime Republican strategist, former journalist, former Democratic strategist, Eric Woolson. Hello, sir.Eric Woolson: Great to be back.Dave Price: Back from his world travels as well. He will have a Netflix documentary on his world travels coming up — if it’s not, it should be. For those of you watching on video, Eric, can you tell us what’s in the visual behind you?Eric Woolson: I didn’t like the blurred background last week, so that’s an aerial of my farm down in Wayne County.Dave Price: And on that farm you grow?Eric Woolson: Catnip.Dave Price: Catnip, of course you do.Eric Woolson: My tenant’s a traditional farmer, so he grows corn and soybeans — we’re not that far off.Dave Price: Alright, now how’d you get into catnip?Eric Woolson: My son and I wanted a cat, and my wife wouldn’t let us have one, so we said, well, we’re going to be growing catnip on the farm, and we need an official spokescat. In 20 years, I don’t think that cat has ever sold any catnip, but —Dave Price: That ploy worked.Eric Woolson: He really is the most interesting man alive, is he not?Kathie Obradovich: He is, and my cat approves, by the way.Eric Woolson: Excellent — we’ll be looking for those campaign ads!Kathie Obradovich: Outstanding.Dave Price: Alright, so grab your you-know-what, as Chuck Grassley — the Dairy Queen aficionado — would say. Eric, you wrote a book about the senator back in the day. He is 93 years old. I’m guessing you’re not surprised he’s lived to see 93?Eric Woolson: That’s what clean living does for you. I was looking up some numbers last night — sixth longest-serving senator, but third oldest. Obviously Strom Thurmond, at 99, has the record, but Theodore Green, a Rhode Island Democrat, was 93 when he retired, so Grassley will become the second longest-serving senator on December 20th. I think you can hold two truths about Grassley at once — his longevity and public service are extraordinary, but at the same time, we’re entitled to a serious conversation about age and capacity and the transfer of political power. Those aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s not really “is 93 too old, or 90, or 85, or 80” — it’s whether this individual is demonstrably capable of performing every important task of the job. That’s the conversation that should always be there.Dave Price: Laura, didn’t you ask Rob Sand at a news conference about his idea for age limits?Laura Belin: I don’t know if I asked him specifically about that. He’s talked about age limits but hasn’t said exactly what age is too old — he says he’d be open to different ideas. It’s interesting — you may have seen a reporter ask Senator Grassley recently, similar to what he was asked about a year or so ago. He’s not ruling out running for another term in 2028, when he’d be 95. I think he will retire in 2028, but it’s interesting that he won’t just say that. To me it seems pretty clear that at 95, you shouldn’t be running for another six-year term.Dave Price: Kathie, you were like 11 when you started covering Chuck Grassley, right?Kathie Obradovich: Yes, let’s go with that. A couple things — one, I hope Senator Grassley has a freezer in his office, because judging from social media, the amount of Dairy Queen treats coming his way on his birthday... if he had to actually sit down and eat all of that, even with help from staff — and I hope he hasn’t become lactose intolerant in his old age, because even one Dairy Queen blizzard would cause havoc for me, I can tell you.Laura Belin: My neighborhood Dairy Queen, in Windsor Heights, is actually the one that inspired the viral tweet.Kathie Obradovich: I do love a blizzard. Second thing — the Board of Regents this week gave UNI official permission to open essentially the Chuck and Barbara Grassley Center, where the senator’s papers will be donated. They approved it on his birthday, which was nice. Interestingly, they’re withholding the naming of the center until he leaves office. I don’t know if any of you remember, but that became an issue with the Regents when Tom Harkin was originally going to put his center at Iowa State — some Regents voted against naming it after a sitting senator, since he could be raising money for the center while still in office, and they thought that was an ethics issue. So it’s interesting they’re withholding the Grassley Center’s naming until he retires. Harkin did eventually pull out of Iowa State, but that was over an ag-research dispute, unrelated to the naming — just a bit of history I thought was interesting.Dave Price: On the totally non-political side, I was also thinking — how cool is it that Barbara is also with us. She’s slightly younger, I think, right, Eric?Eric Woolson: I think so — actually, I think she might be even slightly older. She had a previous marriage and a son from it when she met Grassley. But they’ve been together since the early ‘50s — going on over 70 years now.Dave Price: And I believe they still go to the same restaurant they went to when they were dating.Eric Woolson: Creatures of habit.Dave Price: Which is cool in its own right, that the place still exists.Let’s talk about an event we’ve teed up a few times on the show and never quite gotten to. This past week, the Republican Party of Iowa held an event — billed largely as another “Josh Turek is too liberal” event — but they also talked about the constitutional amendment going before voters in November, which would make it harder for the legislature to raise taxes. It reminds me of the old “when you have the majority, be bold, kick down the door” mentality. Republicans are pushing this through even amid some uncertainty about where they’ll stand with voters after November — getting it locked in now, just in case.Laura Belin: Only income and corporate taxes, though, Dave — not all taxes.Dave Price: Good point.Eric Woolson: Exactly.Dave Price: There hasn’t been a ton of coverage of this, so I have a feeling it’ll sneak up on some voters when they see it on the ballot.Eric Woolson: Yeah, a lot of people forget to turn the ballot over — I suspect it’s on the back. It hasn’t gotten much coverage, and speaking as an average voter, I don’t know that much about it myself. One thing I found interesting: the House vote to put the amendment up was 57 Republicans, no Democrats — it didn’t reach the two-thirds threshold you’d actually need to raise taxes under the new rule. That’s one of the hurdles right there. I can see the appeal — “we need a supermajority to raise taxes” sounds great on its face — but from a policy standpoint, having worked for the governor, I’d say there are just too many flaws in this one.Kathie Obradovich: It does tie your hands. And as Laura mentioned, this only constrains votes on personal and corporate income taxes. There’s now organized opposition, and there’s also a campaign by Iowans for Tax Relief in favor — so we have organized campaigns on both sides now, which should raise awareness, especially with more media coverage of events like this week’s. Opponents argue this won’t actually stop tax increases — it’ll just push lawmakers toward other revenue sources, most likely the sales tax. And our tax system has already become more regressive: the legislature flattened income tax rates to 3.8% flat, so everyone pays the same rate regardless of income — a less progressive system than before. Iowans for Tax Relief will significantly outspend the opposition, though opponents are raising enough to run at least a digital campaign and maybe some yard signs. There was also a Suffolk University poll last month showing the electorate is very close on this — only a 3-4 point gap between support and opposition

This week, we paused to remember September 11th, 25 years later. Kathie, Laura, and Ed each shared where they were that day. Kathie watched the towers fall live on TV, Laura was in London and saw the shock ripple through Britain (which lost 67 citizens that day), and Ed watched fighter jets and Air Force One crisscross an eerily empty sky over Iowa. It’s a reminder of how much the world shifted that morning, and how differently a new generation experiences that history.On the political side, we dug into the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas and Trump’s surprise pitch to send every American adult $5,000. Ed broke down why he sees it as inflationary deficit spending rather than a “revenue hit,” and Laura pointed out this is just the latest in a string of promised dividends (DOGE checks, tariff dividends) that haven’t materialized. Ashley Hinson, for her part, stayed carefully noncommittal when asked about it back home in Iowa.We also talked Cy-Hawk weekend politics. Tailgate stops are now basically mandatory campaign stops, from Zach Wahls to Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ star-studded tailgate. We closed with Martin O’Malley’s visit to stump for Social Security solvency alongside Josh Turek, plus the news that Iowa’s caucuses are now officially locked in as first-in-the-nation for 2028.Thanks for listening as always. If you would like to become a paid subscriber to help cover the costs of production please click the ‘Subscribe now’ button above. If you’d could spare a few dollars for a one-time donation please click the button below. We appreciate you!Auto-generated transcript below:Dave Price: Hi everyone, and welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. If you’re watching the video version of this, you can tell it’s a Cy-Hawk weekend — one of our contributors this week wants you to know what he’s proudly wearing. We’ll get to him in a moment.We also have a somber remembrance this week: 25 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. We’ll talk about that a little. A former presidential candidate came to Iowa — that seems to happen every week now — in this case it was Martin O’Malley, talking about Social Security. We’ll talk about whether we agree that Social Security will be a big issue for voters this November. Plus, President Trump wants to give you $5,000 — but there’s a big catch. We’ll cover that and more.Let’s bring on our panelists. Mr. Iowa Hawkeye, demonstrating his pride — Ed Failor Jr., longtime Republican advisor and staffer. Hello, sir.Ed Failor: Hello, how are you today?Dave Price: We’re good. Laura Belin, our regular. Kathie Obradovich, our regular — not that you’re “regular,” you know what I mean.Kathie Obradovich: Well, I have to say, I wasn’t prepared for the rivalry.Dave Price: Oh.Kathie Obradovich: Because I am, I think, the only Cyclone on the panel here. But Ed, hat tip to you.Laura Belin: I’m neutral — I’m Switzerland on the Iowa/Iowa State game, because I’m a Michigan fan.Dave Price: We pledge civility on this show, but Cy-Hawk may bring some other emotion out this week. We’ll see how Ed and Kathie coexist.Ed Failor: I’m an elephant.Kathie Obradovich: Cyclone.Ed Failor: I’m always nice to the younger sibling who just can’t get by.Dave Price: And for those watching the video version — Ed’s on the mend here. You good? You’ve got a big bandage on your forehead.Ed Failor: Yeah, just a little skin issue — sun damage and all that. Had a small thing taken care of yesterday, and I’ve got to leave this on for a day and a half or two days. So yeah, I’m golden.Dave Price: All good, good to hear.Remembering September 11thDave Price: I thought this week we should address — we’re recording on September 11th. I know this drops on the weekend, but there were a lot of moments throughout Friday looking back 25 years. It’s one of those things where you realize your age a bit — neither of my kids was alive when the 9/11 attacks happened. I have a coworker in television who’s only 24, and when we were talking about story ideas for 9/11, I figured she wouldn’t know much about it firsthand. Kathie, do you remember what was happening in your life on September 11, 2001?Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I was still working for the Lee Enterprises papers. I remember the day vividly — I was getting ready for work with the TV on, half-watching while I got dressed, and when I turned it on, the first tower had already been hit. So then I’m glued to the TV, assuming at that point it was a terrible accident. I was still watching when the second plane hit the tower.Honestly, it makes me tear up right now — I literally burst into tears when I saw it. The weeks afterward were just a blur. We were wondering whether the state capitol would be a target — Tom Vilsack was governor at the time — and there was a lot of discussion about Homeland Security and what could be at risk in Iowa: the water supply, the food supply. There was a lot of talk about securing Iowa’s food supply because of the sudden insecurity everyone felt. But yeah, I’ll never forget that morning, watching that plane hit the second tower.Dave Price: I had a similar experience. I slept in that day and missed the first one — a friend called me, I flipped on the TV, and then saw the second one. Laura, what do you remember of that day?Laura Belin: I was in graduate school, living in London, so my morning was completely normal. I watched the BBC noontime news and nothing was happening yet — the first plane hit a little before 2 p.m. in Britain. Somebody called me, and I turned on the TV a little after 2.A lot of people don’t realize the 9/11 attacks were the deadliest terror attack in British history — at least 67 UK citizens were killed, mostly in the World Trade Center: some on the observation deck, some working at Cantor Fitzgerald, some passengers on the planes. No IRA attack in the UK ever killed nearly as many people. It was a massive story — for weeks afterward, if people heard my American accent, they’d say, “We’re so sorry for what happened to your country.” British media coverage focused a lot on the British victims too, but it was an unbelievable, devastating experience — people in Europe really felt the scale of the calamity.Dave Price: Ed, where were you back then?Ed Failor: I was at Iowans for Tax Relief in Muscatine when it happened. What stands out to me — the actual events were awful, obviously — but I remember going out into the yard just to catch my breath and look around. There was no air traffic. It was eerie. Then I saw jets, probably F-16s, come screaming west to east. I’m an Air Force veteran, I worked in ops, so I thought, “The president’s probably in the air right now.” Then they came screaming back. And then, at a much slower pace, another big plane came through — that had to be Air Force One, making its way from Omaha back to DC.I remember thinking: the only things in the sky right now are our president and some fighter jets. That felt almost as profound, in some ways, as the tragedy itself — like, wow, the world’s changed forever. Nothing’s going to be the same. That’s what I remember feeling, watching those planes go back and forth.Dave Price: I remember our television newsroom — everybody scrambling, rushing in without even being called, but not really knowing what to do. Like Kathie said — is the state capitol safe? The airport had shut down, so we had crews out there talking to grounded, confused passengers walking off planes. As a reporter, you’re processing what’s happening as an American, while also trying to figure out what the story should even be.The technology was so different back then — today it’d all be social media and digital, but this was the early days of that. We interviewed all kinds of people and shot stories that never aired, because the networks were on 24/7 for days and there wasn’t room. Local TV was kind of stuck, still transitioned to the old world, rushing from place to place trying to figure out what to do — but feeling kind of useless.Laura Belin: The BBC also preempted all other coverage — wall to wall, that day and the next.Dave Price: Yeah, it was...Kathie Obradovich: There were 13 people with Iowa ties killed that day, either at the towers or on United Flight 93, which people remember crash-landed in Pennsylvania after passengers realized they were being hijacked and brought the plane down. And here’s how small a world it is — two of the people who passed away that day had siblings still in Iowa whom I personally know. I grew up with one family in Ames, the Haviland family — one of the younger brothers of the man who passed away was a classmate of mine. It tells you what a small community Iowa really is.Laura Belin: It really changed a lot of people’s lives. I remember soapbox speeches — Lindsey James said she decided to become a chaplain after 9/11 because she knew someone on Flight 93. And Nicholas Gluba, the Libertarian who ran for governor, decided to join the Marines after 9/11. A lot of people made huge, life-changing decisions because of what happened.Kathie Obradovich: One of our current statehouse newsroom editors, Tim Lambert — he’s now editor of the Pennsylvania Capital-Star — Flight 93 actually crash-landed on family land of his in Pennsylvania. It sounded like the crash field spread over a multiple-mile area. We picked up an interesting story from Stateline where he talked about that experience. It’s still, I think, reverberating today in how it touched people all over.Dave Price: For sure.RNC Midterm Convention & the $5,000 IdeaDave Price: Far different subject — this week in Dallas, the Republican National Committee held a midterm convention. We’re used to seeing these every four years in presidential cycles, but this was a mid-cycle one. We’ve had a lot of unusual things happen this midterm cycle — redistricting, and now a midterm convention, and only on one side; Democrats didn’t do their own version.Ed, when you heard this was happening — with your strategist brain — what was your first thought? Wa

This week we dug into two big stories. First, the Des Moines Register’s new reporting on Derek Wulf’s farm finances: an active criminal investigation, a court-appointed receiver, and creditors who settled for less than they were owed. We talked about what real campaign due diligence looks like, and why this story hasn’t gotten the attention it probably deserves.We also broke down a new Emerson College poll. Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn by 3 points in the governor’s race, with independents breaking hard his way. In the Senate race, Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek 50-45, and we tried to make sense of Turek’s ad touting cooperation with Trump on immigration.Plus, we’re pleased to welcome first-time guest Eric Woolson who has an extensive background in journalism and campaigns, closed things out with the Chuck Grassley vacuum cleaner bobblehead saga, and pondered whether Grassley might run again in 2028 at age 95.Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks!Auto-generated transcript below:Dave Price: Hi everyone, and welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. We have another new statewide poll, and it shows that, at least for some people, split-ticket voting is still a thing. We’ll talk about that. Plus, there’s new reporting on Republican lieutenant governor candidate Derek Wulf and his farm operations, legal situation, and finances. The Des Moines Register had a story out Friday that we want to discuss.I’m Dave Price. This week we’re joined by Iowa Down Ballot regulars Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin. Hello, ladies.Kathie Obradovich: Hello! Good to be here.Laura Belin: Good to be here.Dave Price: And making his debut on the podcast, I was going to say “best known snake charmer” — that’s not really why he’s here, but he might be the most interesting man in the room if you really know his background. Eric Woolson, way back in the day, was a newspaper reporter. He may be the only person I know who’s worked for both a Democratic and a Republican presidential candidate. Is that true?Eric Woolson: Well, that’s where the snake charming comes in handy, I suppose. I used to say I was one of the few people who’d worked for seven presidential campaigns. But I’m absolutely positive I’m the only person who’s been a spokesperson for both Joe Biden and Michele Bachmann.Laura Belin: Narrow that down.Eric Woolson: I’ll throw that down.Dave Price: Well done — we strive for uniqueness on this show. Welcome, Eric, thanks for joining us.Derek Wulf’s Financial and Legal TroublesDave Price: Let’s talk about this Des Moines Register story. Tyler Jett posted it Friday — and we’re recording this on Friday, so we may be talking about it as the news is still unfolding. This won’t drop until the weekend, so there could be twists and turns. Laura, I believe you were the first to report on Derek Wulf’s agricultural operations and financial challenges. Tyler Jett has picked up from there, and it shows there are still serious financial challenges for Representative Wulf, along with some strong allegations from people who’ve worked with him. What do you make of it?Laura Belin: It was a really good piece by Tyler Jett — he clarified some things I wasn’t able to nail down back in June and July. First, WCF Financial, his bank, filed a foreclosure petition in May. As of this summer they were negotiating some kind of refinancing. Derek Wulf said at the Westside Conservative Club in July that they’d been able to refinance, but that clearly wasn’t complete, because last week the bank filed a motion to have a receiver appointed, which the court approved two days ago.The bank’s filing said Wulf never presented a commitment letter — essentially proof that financing or additional collateral was lined up to support the refinancing. So we know negotiations broke down somewhere along the way.Also important: Tyler Jett confirmed with the Black Hawk County Sheriff’s Office that there is still an active criminal investigation into Wulf’s operations. That was hinted at in the May foreclosure filing, and seems related to livestock collateral belonging to the bank that may have been sold to third parties. There were also fraud allegations in an earlier filing from a separate case brought by Heartland Co-op, but I was never able to confirm an actual criminal investigation — Tyler Jett did. The Lahn campaign’s spokesperson denied any fraud occurred, but also apparently confirmed to the Register that Zach Lahn didn’t know about the criminal investigation when he picked Wulf as his running mate.Dave Price: Eric, you’re the only one of us who’s worked on campaigns — what’s traditional due diligence like when choosing a running mate?Eric Woolson: Going back to my reporting days in the ‘70s, ‘80s, and ‘90s, my first thought was: how did this happen? Clearly a due diligence question — somebody didn’t do their homework. Normally that process runs a couple of weeks: you dig into personal background, financial background, talk to people they’ve done business with, talk to the neighbors. A lot of times you’ve got a professional firm doing opposition research — including on your own candidate, so you know what the other side will say about you. Clearly none of that happened here.The landscape’s changed too. Laura’s done terrific work, the Register has a news story, but for the most part it feels like a tree falling in the forest that nobody hears. There’s not as much media in this state as there used to be, reporters are shorthanded, there’s only so many hours in the day. Regardless of party, this isn’t as big a story as it should be — and that goes back to the central question of where the due diligence was. Obviously there wasn’t any.Kathie Obradovich: To give the Lahn campaign a little grace — it’s possible that when Wulf first addressed these questions with Laura, he genuinely believed refinancing was in progress, and that kind of deal can fall apart at any point. That does happen. But this raises real questions: if this is how the Lahn campaign does due diligence on someone as important as a running mate, how can Iowa voters trust he’ll pick the right people if he becomes governor? The governor doesn’t do everything alone — you have to pick the right people for the job.Even if this is damaging to Wulf, it doesn’t mean he can’t do a good job as lieutenant governor. It’s possible the campaign knew all this and decided his financial experience actually makes him a stronger advocate for farmers. Some of this comes down to how much voters really care about who the running mate is.Laura Belin: Tyler Jett interviewed some of the creditors who sued Wulf — I’d reached out but never heard back. One of them, Chad Zoske, described something that goes well beyond normal farmer financial distress. The Lahn campaign had said all creditors were being repaid in full, but according to the Register story, Zoske ended up settling for less than he was owed because he figured something was better than nothing.Eric Woolson: Part of this may be that Lahn really came out of nowhere as a surprise candidate, so he may have lacked connections within the party infrastructure. In years past you’d have five or six names floated — someone from eastern Iowa, someone from northwest Iowa, maybe a business person — generating buzz. This pick came out of left field. The question is how much internal discussion there really was among Senate, House, and party leadership before landing on him. Normally you’d have several names floated, and I don’t recall any being out there. Lahn was surprised to be the nominee, and so was everyone else.Dave Price: He and Governor Kim Reynolds had never even met before the primary, so there wasn’t much happening behind the scenes there either. I should also note — I double-checked with the Secretary of State’s office — it’s too late to get Derek Wulf’s name off the ballot even if this became a bigger controversy.I’m curious, Eric: how does a campaign decide how much to talk about something like this? Zach Lahn already has a complicated personal story — the Kansas connection, an ex-wife, his wife’s ex-husband, kids who live there, the farmhouse in Belle Plaine — and Rob Sanders has tried to capitalize on the “Kansas guy, not an Iowa guy” angle. Now there’s Wulf’s farm finances too. How does a campaign decide whether to get out in front of something like this — a press conference, addressing it directly — versus staying quiet or responding only in writing?Eric Woolson: That’s always an internal calculation, and campaigns typically have people on both sides of it. Talk about it more and you risk drawing more attention; don’t talk about it and you risk looking like you’re hiding something. It depends on the circumstances — and as Laura’s and Tyler Jett’s reporting shows, this is out of the ordinary. You can talk about farmers facing financial difficulty in general, but this has been going on a long time and hasn’t been handled well. My guess is the campaign sticks with something like “this shows he understands what farmers are going through.” I’d have pushed hard for getting out in front of it. But first and foremost: don’t have the issue in the first place, and you won’t have to explain it.Dave Price: We’ll see how the campaign handles this over the weekend and into next week.New Statewide Poll — Governor’s RaceDave Price: We have a new statewide poll from Emerson College. Starting with governor: Democr

We welcomed Ed Failor Jr. to the show for the first time — longtime Iowa Republican operative, former head of Iowans for Tax Relief — and put him through the paces alongside Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin.We dug into the new Suffolk poll. Ashley Hinson is up 45-41 on Josh Turek, Rob Sand is up 48-44 on Zach Lahn.The Libertarians lost in court again. A judge ruled they can’t replace their disqualified candidates, so their LG and 3rd District picks are off the ballot pending a possible appeal.We talked beef! The president’s move to allow cheaper foreign beef imports has ranchers fuming, with timing that couldn’t be worse for Iowa’s cattle counties.And we closed on whether Hinson’s time in Congress is a liability in a statewide race. Ed says no. It’s the candidate, not the office.Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks!Auto-generated transcript below:Dave Price: Welcome back, everybody, to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I’m Dave Price. This week, we are going to talk about a new statewide poll that shows, yet again — in case you didn’t know this — that we have some really competitive races in this state. We’re also going to talk about beef. The president has made a move that has ticked off some cattle ranchers, and we’re going to dig into that a little bit. And we have a tradition, it seems, on this weekly podcast: we must cover the latest twists and turns of the Libertarian candidates, so we’ll do that too.With us this week are regulars Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin. Hello, ladies.Kathie Obradovich: Oh!Laura Belin: Good to see ya!Dave Price: But this week we’ve added a fourth. This is something we’ve been talking about for quite a while, and it is now a thing: Ed Failor Jr. joins us this week. He’s a longtime Republican who has had a bunch of different jobs — he’s worked at the Statehouse, he’s worked on campaigns, he led an organization, Iowans for Tax Relief, and he’s done other stuff too. We’ll maybe get into some of that. Regardless, welcome, Ed. Thanks for doing this.Ed Failor: Well, happy to be here. I just — people talking is a good thing.Dave Price: It is a good thing. You and I, over the years, have had many lengthy conversations, and now we can do it here. And as you promised, you’ll work in at least one dad joke — in case any of your kids are listening to this podcast. True?Ed Failor: I’m going to ignore the ageism of that and go with it. Yeah.Dave Price: I’m apparently with you, because I’m accused of that all the time. I wear it as a badge of honor. All right, all right — trio.The Suffolk University PollDave Price: Let’s set things up with this new Suffolk University poll. Two of the big races we’ve talked about all year: the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race. Quick numbers — in the Senate race, Republican Ashley Hinson leads 45–41 over Democrat Josh Turek, with Libertarian Thomas Lane at 4%. The governor’s race is flipped: Democrat Rob Sand is at 48%, Republican Zach Lahn at 44%, no Libertarian in that race. That’s our tease — we’ll get to the Libertarians, but not yet.Kathie, we’ve said again and again that it’s a competitive race — when you see these numbers, what’s the “why” of it?Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I think one thing I liked about this poll is they asked a lot of issue questions that help explain where people are coming from, and it won’t surprise anyone — it’s the economy, it’s gas prices, it’s household expenses, grocery prices. Poll respondents were asked what they’re spending more money on, and gas and groceries topped the list. President Trump’s approval rating is down, as we’ve seen in other polls and nationally.There’s also still a healthy number of undecided voters. I was glad to see Thomas Lane included in this poll — we hadn’t seen a poll name the Libertarian candidate before, for reasons we’ll get into. But he’s on the ballot, and he pulled about 3 points that look like they came from Republicans and 1 point from Democrats. So if we speculate about who the Libertarian hurts more in this race, it’s probably Ashley Hinson.Dave Price: Laura, what’s your takeaway?Laura Belin: I like to look at the composition of the electorate. I could look at this poll and say it’s encouraging for Republicans — Zach Lahn isn’t that far behind, he’s much less well-known than Rob Sand, and he has room to grow, while Hinson still has a lead. But I looked at the sample: 38% Republican, 33% Independent, 28% Democrat. That’s a decent reflection of Iowa’s registered voters as a whole, but a poor reflection of who’s likely to vote in a midterm — there’s no way independents will outnumber Democrats at the ballot box in November. Democratic turnout will be higher than independent turnout, even accounting for a stronger-than-usual independent showing.So if I’m a Democrat, I’m looking at this poll and thinking Rob Sand’s lead could actually be understated. Also worth noting: the recalled 2024 presidential vote in this sample was Trump +11, close to Trump’s actual 13-point win in the state — but there’s no guarantee the November electorate mirrors 2024. We’ve talked about this before: if you’d polled in 2014 assuming the electorate would look like 2012’s, you’d have been way off. So — I have no idea. I do feel Hinson is slightly favored in the Senate race, but this poll doesn’t look like what the November electorate is likely to be.Dave Price: Ed, you’ve watched how the sausage is made for years — what did you think of the headline numbers, and of the internals?Ed Failor: Laura stole one of my two points, so it must have been a good one — the composition of who they polled isn’t what the electorate is actually going to look like. That was my biggest takeaway, and Laura’s right.The other thing: the numbers are all within the margin of error, so who really knows. Polls are a snapshot of a group of people at a given time. They brought in a good sample from Muscatine County, which is a real bellwether — that was smart. But the thing that struck me most was why people said they’re voting. Forty percent of likely voters said it’s their civic duty — for people willing to answer a poll in August, that doesn’t surprise me; I’d almost have expected that number to be higher. But 30% said they’re voting because of the political climate, and that’s interesting. Without the crosstabs, you can’t see the “why” behind that — as a Republican, I’m not happy with the climate either, and I know plenty of Democrats who aren’t public about their views, so that number cuts both ways.Without an incumbent on the ballot, Sand and Hinson are each the closest thing to one, and having them up by a bit this early is normal — the late deciders will make the difference. I’d be concerned, as a Republican, that those numbers aren’t better given the state we’re in.The Cabinet VisitsDave Price: Ed, can you zoom out and look at the last couple of weeks? About the only people who haven’t visited Iowa lately are Donald Trump and J.D. Vance — I exaggerate only slightly. They sent a plane full of administration officials who did various things; a bunch went to the State Fair. Is this a protective move, making sure they don’t take chances because so much is at stake — or are they seeing the numbers, feeling the environment, and thinking “we need to reinforce en masse”?Ed Failor: Probably a little of both, but more the latter. It’s real early for them to be doing this, so I’d assume — mathematically, as a Republican, I’m not thrilled — that the latter is more likely. It’s a way for them to plug in and help, and putting people like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Pete Hegseth in front of voters gives some gravitas without it being the president himself, which is a double-edged sword at best.Dave Price: Sure. Laura, what do you have?Laura Belin: I’d like Ed’s take on something. I’ve watched all the soapbox speeches, and at this stage of a campaign you often see candidates pivot toward the middle — Zach Nunn and Ashley Hinson both talked about their bipartisan work. But I was struck that Nunn brought in Pete Hegseth, and Hinson is bringing back Ted Cruz, who just campaigned with her. I’d have thought those were fairly polarizing figures they might not want to elevate. What does Ed make of that?Ed Failor: I think Hegseth’s appearance is interesting, and probably less polarizing than we’d assume — most voters don’t have strong feelings about him one way or the other, even though people like us in the political world do. I think the mistake people in our world and in the press make is assuming the average Iowan is paying close attention yet. So bringing in Hegseth is partly about just getting people to pay attention.Ted Cruz, I find more interesting — is that about shoring up the “I’m a real conservative” credential? If you went to church this weekend and asked people whether they know who Pete Hegseth is, you’d mostly get “I’ve heard the name” — but he’s from the administration, and that adds some weight. Years ago, when Tom Vilsack was governor, there was a name-ID poll — something like 70% of Iowans knew who Vilsack was, but when the same group was asked who the governor of Iowa was, the number dropped well below two-thirds. People often want to sound informed more than they want to give the honest answer.Dave Price: Well, our seniors will be better educated now — they have that new civics requirement kicking in for the first graduating class this year, right?Ed Failo

We started with the Cook Political Report’s new ratings: the U.S. Senate race moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up, and the governor’s race moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat. We talked about why. Tight polling, a president underwater in approval, gas prices topping four bucks, and Iowa’s history of electing Democratic governors in red states even when it won’t send them to the Senate. We also noted how many Republican candidates went negative on their opponents at the soapbox this year, which we read as a sign of real nervousness in the party.Then we got into the sheer number of Trump administration officials who came through Iowa this week. We counted at least nine cabinet secretaries, including Pete Hegseth, Scott Bessent, RFK Jr., and Brooke Rollins. Hegseth’s visit stood out most: no public schedule, a rare appearance for him, and a campaign fundraiser for Zach Nunn that Pentagon guidelines normally wouldn’t allow for a Senate-confirmed official. We debated who ends up paying for that kind of travel and what message it sends about how worried the administration is about Iowa’s races.We closed out with our soapbox moments: the Libertarians’ ongoing ballot fight and court hearing, and Turning Point USA activists trailing Rob Sand, Josh Turek, and Mark Kelly around the fairgrounds, something none of us had seen at the fair before.We’ll be back next week to see how the final 48 hours of the fair played out.Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks!Auto-generated transcript below:Dave Price: Hi, everybody, and welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. We are talking to you on the final Friday morning of the Iowa State Fair. I’m Dave Price, joined by Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. Hello, ladies, how are you?Kathie Obradovich: Hello, happy Friday!Dave Price: Happy Friday — and happy Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, to all of you, whenever you’re listening to this podcast, the final Friday of the Iowa State Fair. Much to talk about.I wonder if we can talk first about the Cook Political Report. I was talking to somebody — this would’ve been Thursday, I think — at the fair about this. Cook Political Report looks at all these races across the country, obviously, and it shifted both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race toward Democrats.As we know, Republicans have been the dominant party in our state for more than a decade. We’ve also talked early in this podcast about the new wildcards in 2026 — for the first time since ‘68, I believe, both of those races are open seats. So in theory, anything goes, although I feel like I’ve brought this up a half dozen times: Laura’s post six months ago now, showing the registration numbers — the difference between Republicans and Democrats — while it’s narrowed, you’re still looking at, what, 180-some thousand?What’s the difference?Laura Belin: I think it’s closer to 170,000 now. Pretty big Republican advantage.Dave Price: That’s a big ol’ gap. Okay, let’s talk about this shift. Kathie, why don’t you lead us off? And appreciate — this is just a forecast, and we tread carefully on polls and speculation. But as Cook is looking at this, they’re clearly looking at the atmosphere and what’s going on. So how potentially significant is this, for a party that still has sizable advantages like Republicans do, to now almost be at a disadvantage in a couple of these prominent races?Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so first of all, I think this reflects what we’ve been seeing here — these races are tight. These forecasts are based largely on polling, I’d argue, although there are certainly other factors that go into it. The U.S. Senate race moved from Leans Republican to Toss-Up. And again, we talked about the Emerson poll a couple weeks ago — it was a two-point race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek. By most definitions, I’d call that a toss-up.And then the governor’s race moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat, which again I think is reflective of that same Emerson poll — Rob Sand had a five-point lead, so it seemed weird that we were still calling it a toss-up and not Leans Democrat. You guys may disagree, but I think this is reflective of the national climate — we continue to see dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. He’s underwater in polls in Iowa and around the country. We continue to see economic angst among the population. All of that, piled on top of the fact that the president’s party typically does poorly in the midterms — I think that builds a case, separate from anything going on in Iowa specifically.Having said that, it’s August.Dave Price: Yes.Kathie Obradovich: A lot, a lot can happen.Laura Belin: I think one thing it underscores — and we’ve talked about this before — is that in a red state, voters are more likely to elect a Democrat as governor than to the U.S. Senate. That’s why we have Democratic governors in Kansas, Kentucky, and recently had one in Louisiana. So I think what everyone agrees on is that Rob Sand has a better chance than Josh Turek, regardless of the climate.But I was struck by Ashley Hinson’s speech on the soapbox Monday — she went hard negative on Turek before she even talked about her own record. Sometimes candidates talk about their own record first and then criticize the opponent, but she did the negative part first, which normally you wouldn’t do when you’re feeling comfortable about the race. Brenna Bird also went negative on her opponent in her soapbox speech. And I saw that Sabato’s Crystal Ball just moved the Iowa Attorney General race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig also went negative on his opponent. So it does seem that Iowa Republicans are feeling pretty concerned about this election cycle.Dave Price: Kathie, you said maybe we disagree — I don’t. I think all the things you pointed out... and, I love a bunch of things about the Iowa State Fair, but not how you feel afterward, when you’re like, “dang, it’s gonna take me three months to walk off this weight.” That aside — it’s such a good place. For years, when I was at my old TV station, we had our Cast Your Colonel booth, where people could drop a kernel of corn in whichever candidate’s jar they supported. Not a scientific measure, but the benefit for me was more the one-on-one conversations — who do you like, what’s going on in your life. We’d get 60,000 people stop by. I don’t have the corn anymore, but I’ve been at the fair a bunch of times already this year, and this is only anecdotal, so asterisk everything I’m about to say:I can’t think of one person I saw wearing a Trump hat. “Trump ‘28,” Trump-Vance shirts, whatever. I’m not saying he doesn’t have supporters there — of course he does — but I do wonder if people are starting to tire of some of this. I felt this in ‘16 — he beat Hillary Clinton, and toward the end you saw people, including some Republicans, get tired of the chaos. Maybe it’s magnified this time, and then there’s the economic piece — we were driving to the fair the other day when gas by our house topped four bucks. We’re six months into this, and forget the politics — people notice that. Four bucks is a mental threshold.And for people paying attention: the president originally said this wouldn’t even last a couple of weeks. Well, we’re six months in, so you’ve been paying higher prices for six months. I really think that wears on people.Kathie Obradovich: And it’s interesting, Dave — the State Fair isn’t cheap entertainment. You’ve got to pay for tickets, the food’s expensive. So if people who can afford to go to the fair are feeling the economic hit, that tells you something about the rest of the population. People who can afford the fair typically have money to pay $13 for a beer at an Asleep at the Wheel concert, which is what I paid on Wednesday night. And that was at the free stage, country night — I didn’t see any MAGA hats there either, and I was looking for them. So, interesting.Laura Belin: I typically park on Grand Avenue and walk in through the Grand Concourse entrance, and there’s a guy who sometimes sets up near the shuttle drop-off on Grand, near 30th, selling MAGA-type gear. I noticed the hats he’s pushing this year say things like “USA,” maybe “45” and “47” on the side — but he’s not really pushing Trump 2028 or Trump-Vance merchandise. One day as I was walking out, I asked him how business was, and compared to last year. He said about the same. But I noticed he wasn’t really presenting a lot of Trump-branded stuff.Dave Price: Speaking of the fair — sorry to sidetrack — Kathie already plugged her concert. My wife’s best friend came to Iowa with her little girl last week to go to Rod Stewart —Laura Belin: Oh...Dave Price: I appreciate the guy’s in his 80s, so we’re not dogging him — he’d had to cancel a heart procedure to be there. My beef is with Richard Marx. What the heck, man — he was supposed to be the opener, and he bailed. He could’ve had the grandstand to himself. The fair is always super accommodating about this stuff. One thing that’s pretty cool: when the headliner cancels, they refund your ticket and you get to see a free show. So they got John Waite to jump in last minute and do a free show for whoever showed up. Come on, Richard Marx! You were a guy back in the ‘80s or ‘90s — I wanted to see if he still had all that hair, since I’ve never seen him in concert. That was good date music back i