Where does American democracy stand as we are headed into the summer? About a month ago, around the 100-day mark, the idea that Trump was losing, that maybe we were already experiencing the beginning of the end of MAGA’s attempt to erect authoritarian rule, started gaining currency among prominent commentators. We look at the main arguments presented by those who believe that Trump is losing: The constant chaos and incompetence, public opinion turning sharply away from Trump, the courts pushing back and civic society resisting. All of these are important factors. But we are not convinced that means Trump is “losing.” He isn’t “winning” either. In fact, binary ideas of winning/losing (or strength/weakness) may not be very helpful if we want to understand America’s trajectory. The regime might be back-paddling in some areas, while escalating in others; periods of acceleration might be interrupted by treacherous phases of perceived “normalcy.” A key question we should be asking: What does an authoritarian movement like MAGA do when they run into problems, as frustrations start to mount? Will they settle and moderate – or further radicalize? The uncomfortable answer is: We don’t know, and we should accept the openness and uncertainty of the situation – just as we should resist the temptation to measure everything by some rigid idea of an authoritarian “playbook.” American democracy might not crumble exactly the way it has elsewhere; the specifically American, specifically 21st century version of authoritarianism might not look like either the historical examples or the present-day examples from countries around the world. We have much to learn from both the historical analogy and the international comparison. But they don’t offer exact blueprints - instead, they can help us ask the right questions and guide our attention where it needs to be directed. Finally, we talk about what will be next for the podcast, as Thomas’ professional (leaving academia) and personal (leaving America) situation is changing. Spoiler: The podcast will go on – and in fact, there will be a lot more, and more frequent, “Is This Democracy” soon! Show notes:Jennifer Rubin, “Trump is worse off than he was 100 days ago,” The Contrarian, April 28 https://contrarian.substack.com/p/trump-is-worse-off-than-he-was-100 Zack Beauchamp, “Trump is losing,” Vox.com, April 30 https://www.vox.com/politics/410966/trump-democracy-100-days-losing Andrew Marantz, “Is It Happening Here?” The New Yorker, April 28 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/05/05/is-the-us-becoming-an-autocracy Steven Levitsky, Lucan Way, and Daniel Ziblatt, “How Will We Know When We Have Lost Our Democracy?” New York Times, May 8 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/opinion/trump-authoritarianism-democracy.html Jonathan V. Last, “The Secret Police Are Here,” The Bulwark, June 2 https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-secret-police-are-hereFollow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
Since early March, the Trumpist assault on the rule of law and the constitutional order has been most visible in the radicalizing attempt to purge the nation from anyone this regime deems unwelcome or “undesirable.” Foreign students who are labeled a threat to American foreign policy, Venezuelan migrants who are declared foreign “invaders,” innocent people like Kilmar Abrego Garcia who are treated as “terrorists.” Every day brings new horror stories of the Trump administration’s complete disregard for the fundamental rights of people who live in the United States, of the gleeful cruelty with which the government is destroying their lives. What is happening to these people isn’t adequately described as “deportation”: The U.S. government strips them of all rights and imprisons them in a brutal labor camp in a foreign country. A regime that so aggressively curtails and ignores fundamental rights for one group today will not hesitate to violate and suspend them for others tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow. It’s never far from “illegal aliens” and “alien enemies” to “the enemy within.” We talk about how all these cases are connected, about the role of the courts and what to make of the Supreme Court’s interventions, about the response from Democrats and the American public. And we discuss why this constitutes such an acute threat to constitutional government – a threat to the very survival of the Republic. To what extent is the constitutional order still in effect? If we must ask, we are fully in a crisis situation; once we don’t have to ask anymore, the constitutional order will have already been overthrown. Show notes:“He Was Deported by Administrative Error. We Talked to His Lawyer,” Amicus Podcast, April 5 https://slate.com/podcasts/amicus/2025/04/trump-tariffs-are-they-legal Mark Joseph Stern, “The Crisis Over Trump’s Salvadoran Gulag Has Reached a Terrifying Breaking Point,” Slate, April 14 https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/04/trump-defying-supreme-court-el-salvador-bukele.html Trump v J.G.G, 5-4 Podcast, April 15 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trump-v-j-g-g/id1497785843?i=1000703569102 Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, “In Kilmar Abrego Garcia Case, Trump Administration Escalates Its War on Due Process,” Immigration Impact, April 16 https://immigrationimpact.com/2025/04/16/kilmar-abrego-garcia-case-trump-due-process/ Chris Geidner, “Supreme Court blocks some Alien Enemies Act removals in Texas-based case,” Law Dork, April 19 https://www.lawdork.com/p/supreme-court-aea-april-late-night-orderFollow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
Are you feeling “liberated”? The long-dreaded “Liberation Day” saw America declare a trade war on the rest of the world. We discuss why Trump loves tariffs and what to make of the different rationales emerging from the regime. Most importantly, we unpack the politics of the tariff madness, what it can tell us about how this government operates, and how it all fits (or doesn’t) with the broader political project of Tumpism. There is no cunning masterplan, no coherent policy process – but that doesn’t mean these actions aren’t rooted in a worldview of hierarchies and tied to a broader political project seeking domination. Finally, it wasn’t all bad lately: “Liberation Day” was preceded by what has been termed “Resistance Day” and, crucially, followed by the “Hand Off” mass protests. The Trumpist regime’s main justification for its authoritarian assertion of power - that Trump has a “mandate,” that he’s enacting the “will of the people,” that his agenda represents a broad consensus - is a dangerous lie that we must not perpetuate.Follow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
Over the past two weeks, the Trumpists have significantly escalated their assault on the rule of law as well as on both individuals and institutions they regard as the “enemy within.” We focus on two dimensions of this truly dangerous escalation: We start with the Trump government ramping up its attempt to purge the nation from what they now officially call “alien enemies.” Ten days ago, Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, claiming emergency wartime powers to detain and deport foreign nationals – specifically a group of Venezuelan migrants, disappeared into a prison labor camp in El Salvador with no due process whatsoever. This is outrageous in at least three different ways: There is the way these people are being treated; there are the pseudo-legal justifications brought up by the Trump administration to justify such an extreme assertion of executive power; and there is the way the Trumpists are ignoring court orders and moving ever more aggressively towards denying the courts’ authority to check and curtail their power outright. We then move to the escalating attack on universities. The Trumpists, it is evident, will use whatever pretext they can come up with to subdue institutions they deem insufficiently deferential or a potential source of “leftist” subversion. Unfortunately, as the example of Columbia University caving to the regime’s demands demonstrates, those institutions are choosing to capitulate and acquiesce. That is the really scary part: Any assumption of democratic resilience in the United States was predicated on the idea that civil society actors with enormous resources at their disposal – universities, law firms, media companies… – would push back. But so many simply won’t. Show notes: Chris Geidner, “Court blocks deportations hours after Trump says he invoked Alien Enemies Act,” Law Dork, March 15, 2025 https://www.lawdork.com/p/alien-enemies-act-venezuela-tro Amicus podcast, “The Rule of Law Took A Very Dark Turn This Week,” March 22, 2025 https://slate.com/podcasts/amicus/2025/03/trump-regime-flights-of-venezuelans-to-el-salvador-land-in-a-constitutional-crisis “Columbia Yields to Trump in Battle Over Federal Funding,” Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2025 https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/columbia-university-trump-demands-federal-funding-e94d41ca?st=n8GS7V&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink “Law Firm Bends in Face of Trump Demands,” New York Times, March 20, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/us/politics/paul-weiss-deal-trump-executive-order-withdrawn.htmlFollow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
A little over six weeks since Trump returned to the White House – and the assault on democratic self-government and the modern state is not slowing down. We start with Trump’s speech before a joint session of Congress. On the one hand, he didn’t say anything he hasn’t said many times before. But on the other, the whole spectacle revealed so much about Trumpism as a political project – and about a Republican Party that is entirely defined by its devotion to it. Similarly, the Democratic (non-)response offered a window into America’s nominal opposition party: Split between those who still cling to politics-as-usual, dreams of bipartisan “unity,” and impotent accommodation – and those who understand the emergency we face. We then talk about the Supreme Court intervening this week, siding against the Trumpist regime’s egregious attempt to freeze all foreign aid funding and simply not pay the government’s bills. The good news: The Court narrowly held that the rule of law and the constitutional order still somewhat matter. The bad news: This should not have been close at all, and yet it was. And, crucially, we must resist the temptation to legitimize John Robert’s idea of judicial supremacy – even when he occasionally tells the most extreme rightwing forces to knock it off. The Roberts Court is the spearhead of the reactionary mobilization against modern democracy. Finally, One Big Thing we have been thinking about lately: Lily brings up the pushback Republicans have been getting from the base in town halls around the country. Is a reverse-Tea Party a possibility? Thomas has been asked the same question over and over again: Don’t the Trumpists understand how much they are weakening America at home and abroad? The most plausible answer: What they are doing to America is not an accident or an unintended consequence. They really mean it. Show notes: ‘Trump’s 2025 joint session address, fact checked and annotated,’ CNN, March 5, 2025 https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2025/03/politics/transcript-speech-trump-congress-annotated-dg/ The Exploding Heads, ‘Historians Will Forever Remember When We Held Up Very Small Signs,’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5ZbiR0003Q Chris Geidner, ‘The Supreme Court, barely, upholds our three-branch system of government,’ Law Dork, March 5, 2025 https://www.lawdork.com/p/supreme-court-usaid-payments-orderFollow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
Exactly one month into the Trumpist regime, we reflect on what has happened since Trump returned to the presidency, what might be coming next, and what we have learned about America along the way. We start by discussing Trump’s declaration that the law doesn’t apply to him because he is chosen to “save his nation” (and because he seems to believe he is a king): Such assertions of unchecked power are not just distractions – they are manifestations of what MAGA really is as a political project. We then dive deep into the much-discussed essay “The Path to American Authoritarianism: What Comes After Democratic Breakdown,” written by political scientists Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, published in Foreign Affairs last week. We talk about what the authors get right and where we might disagree – which helps us crystallize some big-picture thoughts about the current state of American democracy. Finally, we each bring up One Big Thing we have been thinking about lately: Lily sees reason for optimism because the corrupt bargain between the Trumpist regime and NYC mayor Eric Adams led to a mass resignation of top Department of Justice officials; Thomas worries about crumbling state capacity as the Trumpist sabotage is destroying the state’s ability to tackle the collective problems we face as a society, which will rapidly make all our lives more dangerous. Show notes:Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “The Path to American Authoritarianism: What Comes After Democratic Breakdown,” Foreign Affairs, February 11, 2025 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/path-american-authoritarianism-trumpFollow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
We take stock of our rapidly escalating constitutional crisis and how our interpretation has evolved over the first few weeks of the Trump regime. We talk about the role of Elon Musk, the political project the feudal tech barons are pursuing, and how Musk’s side coup relates to what the other MAGA factions have been up to: the Project 2025 crew, the America First nativists, and Trump himself. We also zoom in on what the stakes are in the fight over the agencies and departments the Trumpists want to eliminate – specifically USAID: If the regime can just shut down whatever part of the government they don’t like, dissolve agencies created by Congress, ignore existing law, then constitutional government is over – then we are no longer in a constitutional crisis, but in a situation in which an autocratic regime has suspended the constitution and ended democratic self-government. We end with a discussion of why the response by the nominal opposition party has been so fundamentally inadequate so far – and how we might finally be seeing signs of life from a Democratic Party that must abandon politics as usual and instead find ways to make the constitutional crisis visible for the American people.Follow LilyFollow ThomasFollow the podcast on social mediaRead Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
Is This Democracy is back! And what a time to be discussing the conflict over how much democracy, and for whom, there should be in America. We reflect on the Inauguration and the first 72 hours of the Trump regime: What stood out from the transfer of power on Monday and Trump’s speech(es)? Most importantly: What have we learned from the onslaught of presidential executive orders and proclamations? We try to establish a framework for how to think about what is happening around us: This is not merely a presidential transition, but an attempted regime change. The Trumpists want to change the rules of how the system works and how power is being wielded; they seek to roll back the post-1960s civil rights order; and they aggressively set out to redefine the boundaries of who gets to belong in America, who has a right to be part of the polity. This is an inflection point - a test for the Constitution, the courts, the system. In the regime’s early initiatives, MAGA has, once again, revealed its true face: An ideologically driven project seeking to roll back much of the racial and social progress of (at least) the past century. Follow Lily Follow Thomas Follow the podcast on social media Read Thomas’ weekly newsletter Democracy Americana
We continue our conversation about “Landslide,” the fantastic new NPR podcast series – and about the transformation of politics in the 1970s, the emergence of a new kind of populist politics, how the Republican Party was taken over by rightwing radicalism that ultimately rose to power with Ronald Reagan in 1980, and how all that relates to what we are experiencing today. In last week’s Part I, we already talked about the process of partisan sorting and party realignment – certainly one of the key stories in recent U.S. history; about the reaction of the Republican establishment to the Reagan-led rightwing insurgency that oscillated between arrogance, helplessness, and complicity; we discussed Reagan as a radical figure in U.S. history and why we can only understand the rise of these rightwing insurgents if we focus on the racial and cultural grievances around which their political project was organized. In this Part II, we start by tackling the question of how to reconcile individual agency and structural contexts, presidential politics and grassroots activism, the contingencies of the political process and broader cultural and ideological shifts when we think about and try to explain history. We also reflect on the question of how to relate Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump – on the relationship between the political styles, promises, and projects they embody: Reaganism and Trumpism; on the similarities and echoes, but also the differences between these two brands of reactionary politics. And finally, we reflect on the lessons we ought to learn (or not learn) from the 1970s for our own political moment, and whether the story of Gerald Ford and is best interpreted as a role model for a more moderate politics oriented towards compromise – or as a cautionary tale of what happens when the Republican establishment tries to appease and harness, rather than oppose, the forces of rightwing extremism. Show notes: “Landslide” at the NPR podcast network: https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510376/landslide Nuance Tales – Ben Bradford’s podcast production studio https://www.nuancetales.com/home
“Landslide” is a new NPR podcast series that tells the story of American politics in the 1970s, specifically of the 1976 and 1980 presidential elections, of Jimmy Carter’s unlikely path to the White House and, most importantly, of how Ronald Reagan and the New Right rose to power. And as you will hear in our conversation with our guest Ben Bradford, the man who created, hosted, narrated, and produced “Landslide,” it is also so much more. For this episode, I recruited the help of Seth Cotlar, professor of history at Willamette University (and our first returning guest on the show), who is currently writing a book about the relationship between establishment Republicanism and far-right activism in Oregon since the 1950s. Together, we discuss the story of “Landslide” with Ben Bradford – and the many questions of fundamental historical and political importance it tackles. We investigate the Republican Party’s radicalization to the Right and the role Ronald Reagan played in this process; the emergence of a new kind of politics and political culture; the relationship between Reagan and Trump – and between the political styles, promises, and projects they embody: Reaganism and Trumpism. And we reflect on the lessons we ought to learn (or not learn) from the 1970s for our own political moment, and whether the story of Gerald Ford and is best interpreted as a role model for a more moderate politics oriented towards compromise – or as a cautionary tale of what happens when the Republican establishment tries to appease and harness, rather than oppose, the forces of rightwing extremism. If you are interested in the pre-historie(s) of our present and how we got to where we are today, I promise this conversation is for you. We actually had so much to talk about that we are releasing the conversation in two episodes – look out for Part II early next week. Show notes: “Landslide” at the NPR podcast network: https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510376/landslide Nuance Tales – Ben Bradford’s podcast production studio https://www.nuancetales.com/home
Have we learned anything new about the Republican Party, its base, and MAGA America from the GOP primaries? We talk about why Trump was always going to win, why he is the dominant force in Republican politics – but also, even though too many people pretend he is electoral magic, a relatively weak general election candidate. We also discuss what is animating the group of self-identifying conservatives who do not like MAGA, but still overwhelmingly vote for Trump. And we examine the role of the Republican establishment: Nikki Haley’s primary campaign can tell us a lot about the trajectory of conservative politics; the way Mitch McConnell’s career ends perfectly encapsulates the dangerous combination of reactionary ideology and cynical opportunism; and the fate of Mike Pence is a reminder of how Republican elites have tried – and failed – for decades to harness the rightwing populist energies of the base that are now fully dominating the party. Finally, we end the episode with some thoughts on Biden’s State of the Union address, Robert Hur and Merrick Garland, what the liberal justices on the Supreme Court are up to, and why, so far, what the political system has offered in response to the Trumpian threat is, at best, a whole lot of handwringing – and, quite often, a whole lot of complicity. Follow The Show Follow Thomas Follow Lily This episode was produced by Connor Lynch
Joe Biden is “too old” and should step aside – at least that is what many of the nation’s most prominent commentators are telling us. But do their arguments actually hold up to scrutiny? Is Joe Biden too old and unfit to be president? Is he incapable of campaigning and defeating Donald Trump in the 2024 election? And if he were to step aside, what should be the plan going forward? Specifically, is an open convention in the summer, as Ezra Klein has argued, the best path towards a Democratic victory in November? We discuss why this discourse, although frustrating and exhausting, matters; we evaluate the arguments of those who describe Biden as manifestly unfit; and we explain why, even though we are concerned too, we remain staunchly unconvinced by the arguments and suggestions the “Biden too old” camp has presented. Finally, we reflect on the case against voting for Biden that is coming from the Left, where “Biden too old” is often seen as merely a distraction from what are supposedly the much more significant reasons to reject the president, especially his stance on Gaza. We offer our thoughts on how people should approach an election in which we are confronted with a binary choice between either, in all likelihood, Joe Biden – or Donald Trump as the extremist leader of a party fully controlled by a radicalizing anti-democratic movement that is seeking to impose a vengeful authoritarian order on the country. Show notes: Ezra Klein, “Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden,” New York Times, February 16, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/opinion/ezra-klein-biden-audio-essay.html Perry Bacon, “Biden’s Democratic Party is to the left of Obama’s. Thank a progressive,” Washington Post, July 13, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/13/why-progressives-winning-inside-democratic-party/ Thomas Zimmer, “What the ‘Biden too old’ discourse is really about,” Democracy Americana, February 13, 2024 https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/what-the-biden-too-old-discourse
What would a second Trump presidency look like? We dive deep into the detailed plans that have emerged on the Right for what they want to do immediately upon getting back to power. Almost two years ago, “Project 2025” was launched under the leadership of the Heritage Foundation. Different factions on the Right are preparing separate plans, but “Project 2025” stands out because it unites much of the conservative machine behind the goal of installing a much more effective, more ruthless rightwing regime. We look at the people behind these plans and what animates them – specifically Kevin Roberts, the president of Heritage, who embodies the siege mentality, self-victimization, and grievance-driven lust for revenge that is fueling the Right. And we dissect the plans and proposals “Project 2025” has to offer, department by department: The goal is to vastly expand presidential power and transform American government into a revenge machine, purge tens of thousands of federal employees and replace them all with loyalists. Already, “Project 2025” is engaged in an unprecedented headhunting operation to ensure ideological conformity. We discuss the tension between the goals of weaponizing the government while dismantling the “deep state” at the same time, and how it is indicative of a larger conflict on the Right between a “traditionalist” and a more rightwing-libertarian wing. Finally, we reflect on why a second Trump term would be much more dangerous, as it could rely on a fully Trumpified GOP in Congress, on a supermajority on the Supreme Court, and on the prospect of escalating violence as the ubiquitous threat against anyone daring to defy Trumpism. Show notes: Project 25 https://www.project2025.org/ Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative promise https://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf Inside the Heritage Foundation’s Plans for ‘Institutionalizing Trumpism, NYT, January 21, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/21/magazine/heritage-foundation-kevin-roberts.html Don Moynihan, Trump Has a Master Plan for Destroying the ‘Deep State’, NYT, November 27, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/opinion/trump-deep-state-schedule-f.html Don Moynihan, The risks of Schedule F for administrative capacity and government accountability, December 12, 2024 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-risks-of-schedule-f-for-administrative-capacity-and-government-accountability/ Sam Adler-Bell, The Shadow War to Determine the Next Trump Administration, January 10, 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/opinion/shadow-war-trump-transition.html Chris Geidner, On Trump's "deep state" attack plans and where they would lead in a second term, November 27, 2024 https://www.lawdork.com/p/trump-deep-state-attack-v-admin-state-attacks
Claudine Gay, Harvard’s first Black president, resigned on January 2 – the endpoint of a brutally dishonest rightwing campaign that could not have succeeded without the mainstream media eagerly joining the crusade to get her fired. We discuss why this disastrous affair matters: It was the latest iteration of the eternal reactionary grievance against higher education, which conservatives have always seen as a place of subversive liberal indoctrination and dangerous social engineering; part of an attempt to recapture the institutions of American life that “the Left” has supposedly hijacked; and a crucial battle in a much broader struggle to extinguish whatever progress towards diversity and integration has been made. Harvard matters because this sets the precedent for other places, other universities, other institutions. The campaign was orchestrated by far-right activists like Christopher Rufo, promoted and financed by a rightwing billionaire donor class, and pushed by MAGA Republicans like Elise Stefanik. But wait, even if bad actors were behind it, did Claudine Gay not still plagiarize? We discuss that too and assess the substance of the plagiarism allegations against her. Friends, there is no there there. Then why did the mainstream media propagate, launder, and legitimize such a dangerous campaign and ardently accept the role Rufo needed it – publicly told it! – to play? They didn’t just “fall for it,” they deliberately joined this crusade – a decision indicative of the media favoring “neutrality”-theater journalism over accuracy, of an increasingly reactionary, anti-“woke” stance on the center, and of America’s elites rapidly accommodating extremism. We are in for a rough ride. Show notes: Alvin Tillery, “Putting the Racist Crusade against Harvard’s Dr. Claudine Gay in Context” https://medium.com/@atillery2/putting-the-racist-crusade-against-harvards-dr-claudine-gay-in-context-26535c307f96 Don Moynihan, “The campaign that removed the President of Harvard was about DEI, not plagiarism,” https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-campaign-to-remove-the-president Moira Donegan, “Claudine Gay’s resignation had nothing to do with plagiarism” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/04/claudine-gay-harvard-resignation Claudine Gay, “What Just Happened at Harvard Is Bigger Than Me” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/03/opinion/claudine-gay-harvard-president.html
In early November the New York Times released a poll that had Donald Trump clearly ahead in 5 of the 6 battleground states that will decide the 2024 election. It caused an earthquake and outright panic among (small-d) democrats. But just two days later, Democrats emerged victorious from an actual election. What on earth is going on in American politics right now? What are we to make of poll after poll claiming that Trump is on a path back to the White House? Do they tell us anything about what’s actually going on in the electorate? How should Democrats react in this situation? There is no one else better equipped to discuss these questions – and shatter a few well-entrenched myths about elections and politics in the process – than Michael Podhorzer. He was, until recently, the long-time political director of the AFL-CIO and is now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. And Mike is, without any exaggeration, a legend in progressive policy circles, having been instrumental in building and organizing an infrastructure for data-driven and evidence-based progressive politics. He is also someone who thinks deeply and sincerely about American politics and combines that with decades of experience as a leading progressive strategist and campaigner. The result is a clarity that few other political observers can rival – something he demonstrates regularly in his Weekend Reading Substack newsletter, in which he offers some of the very best political analysis out there. We talk with Mike about why horse-race polling is “worse than useless” and should be ignored entirely; we dissect the dogma of “popularism” that is extremely influential in Democratic politics – even though (or, perhaps: precisely because) it offers white male identity politics rather than an adequate diagnosis or campaign strategy; and we discuss what’s actually going on in the electorate: Why there is so much frustration in U.S. society; the massive impact of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision; and why the pervasive idea of “education polarization” sanitizes and obscures the fault lines that actually shape U.S. politics. Show notes: Michael Podhorzer’s Weekend Reading Substack newsletter: https://www.weekendreading.net/ Follow The Show Follow Thomas Follow Lily This episode was produced by Connor Lynch
We start with a reflection on the results in Tuesday’s elections, and how they relate to polls that indicate Joe Biden is not just unpopular, but actually trailing Donald Trump in key swing states. What can and can’t we take away from such polling, one year out from the presidential election? We then dive deep into a very different kind of polling and survey data: the 2023 American Values Survey – arguably the most in-depth attempt to capture the values, ideas, and attitudes that shape American society and politics. What do American think of democracy, political violence, authoritarianism, and all the many issues – from abortion and history education to trans rights and QAnon – that define the political conflict? On the basis of this major survey, we try to take the temperature on where things currently stand in America. The results is… mostly not very encouraging. Show notes: The complete 2023 American Values Survey can be found here: https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/ “What Do Americans Think About the Health of Our Democracy and the Upcoming Presidential Election?” Panel discussion on the findings of the 2023 American Values Survey, with Lily Mason and others: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbeuG-lGiyU “Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” New York Times, November 5, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html Jeff Sharlet, The Undertow: Scenes From a Slow Civil War, W.W. Norton & Company 2023 https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324006497
The Speaker drama is over (for now) – but who is Mike Johnson? His ascension is not only further evidence that the January 6 insurrectionists are now fully in charge of the House, but also a manifestation of how much the Republican Party is dominated by the interests and sensibilities of religious reactionaries. Johnson rejects the separation of church and state, he disdains pluralism, and he certainly doesn’t like “democracy.” We also discuss the role threats of violence played in this whole affair. The MAGA base wanted Jim Jordan – and threatened those who didn’t support him. We talk about the surge of political violence from the Right, violent threats as a form of political communication, and the kind of political culture that has been established on the Right and is constantly being normalized not just by Donald Trump, but also by an inability and/or unwillingness of America’s elected leaders and political institutions to hold the line. Does the fact that some Republicans publicly resisted these threats signal that this is about to change? We are skeptical: After all, even those Republicans who lamented the MAGA threats have not been willing to break with Trump or critically reflect on the escalating demonization of “the Left” that is animating the rise of rightwing violence. Finally, we are taking a big-picture look at the state of the 2024 presidential race. On the Republican side, Trump’s “legal troubles” have not hurt him – he is not only in a stronger position now than before he was first indicted, but also than at a comparable point in time before the 2016 election. What are the reasons for his hold over the Right, and what does this tell us about the field of Republican “challengers”? On the Democratic side, we discuss what to make of all the polling data that suggests a tough road ahead for Joe Biden – and why the conventional wisdom about the electoral effect of presidential approval rating and perceptions of the economy might not apply. We also discuss the question of Biden’s age: There is a real issue here, as America’s political elite is indeed significantly older than that of any other comparable democracy. But the mainstream media’s fixation on the “Biden so old” trope also signals something else. Sources and Further Reading: Annie Karni, “In Johnson, House Republicans Elevate One of Their Staunchest Conservatives,” NYT, October 25, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html “They Legitimized the Myth of a Stolen Election — and Reaped the Rewards,” NYT, October 3, 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/us/politics/republican-election-objectors.html Sarah Posner, “The Christian Legal Army Behind ‘Masterpiece Cakeshop,’ The Nation, November 28, 2017 https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-christian-legal-army-behind-masterpiece-cakeshop/ Jamelle Bouie, “The Apotheosis of Jim Jordan Is a Sight to Behold,” NYT, October 17, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/opinion/jim-jordan-house-speaker.html Ron Brownstein, “The Threat to Democracy Is Coming From Inside the U.S. House,” The Atlantic, October 18, 2023 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/10/us-house-democracy-threat-republican-speaker-race/675679/ Aaron Blake, “Threats couldn’t save Jim Jordan. But Trump-era intimidation has had an impact,” WaPo, October 20, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/20/threats-havent-saved-jordan-trump-era-intimidation-has-had-an-impact/ “Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election,” PRRI, October 25, 2023 https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/ Nathan P. Kalmoe and Lilliana Mason, “Threats as Political Communication,” Political Communication, October 18, 2023 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2023.2270539
After a very long summer break, “Is This Democracy” is back! We start with a reflection on the terrorist attack on Israel and the ensuing Israel-Hamas war, how it’s being discussed in the U.S., and the moral, political, and intellectual obligations that shape our own perspective. We then tackle the latest round of Speaker drama: It took Kevin McCarthy 15 tries to get elected – and just 269 days later, he is out. Can we learn anything new from this Republican chaos? Maybe not – but it is a crucial reminder of what defines and animates today’s GOP. We talk about the dogma of rightwing politics that regards Democrats as not just a political opponent, but a fundamentally illegitimate, “Un-American” enemy that must not be allowed to govern; about the underlying dynamic that explains why moments of chaos almost inevitably result in a further radicalization of the Republican Party; about the GOP’s structural weakness, that makes it so hard to discipline individual members like Matt Gaetz; and about the politics and ideology of Steve Scalise who, at the time of recording yesterday, looked like he might become the next Speaker, and what he meant when he described himself as “David Duke without the baggage.” He has now withdrawn - more chaos. Finally, we talk about recurring themes that shape mainstream media coverage of these events in predictably misleading fashion: There is the idea that only Democrats have agency – and therefore are ultimately to be blamed for the chaos; and the pervasive trope of government “dysfunction” that entirely obscures the actual issue, but allows the media to take a “neutral” position from which it can blame “both sides.” Show notes – articles that have particularly shaped this week’s discussion (not necessarily endorsements, mind you!): Gideon Levi, Israel can’t imprison 2 million Gazans without paying a cruel price, Haaretz, October 9, 2023 https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-10-09/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israel-cant-imprison-2-million-gazans-without-paying-a-cruel-price/0000018b-1476-d465-abbb-14f6262a0000 The Hamas Attacks and Israeli Response: An Explainer, Jewish Currents, October 10, 2023 https://jewishcurrents.org/the-hamas-attacks-and-israeli-response-an-explainer Emily Tamkin, What Does It Mean to Stand with Israel?, Slate, October 10, 2023 https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/israel-hamas-war-palestine-stand-with-israel-netanyahu.html Eric Levitz, A Left That Refuses to Condemn Mass Murder Is Doomed, New York Magazine, October 11, 2023 https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/a-left-that-refuses-to-condemn-mass-murder-is-doomed.html Steven Erlanger, As War Rages, Netanyahu Battles for Reputation and Legacy, New York Times, October 10, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/world/europe/netanyahu-israel-gaza-war.html Ronald Brownstein, The Only Sin that Republicans Can’t Forgive, The Atlantic, October 3, 2023 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/10/the-only-sin-that-republicans-cant-forgive/675534/n Moira Donegan, McCarthy ouster shows Republicans don’t want to govern - and they don’t want anyone else to either, The Guardian, October 4, 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/04/republicans-freedom-caucus-kevin-maccarthy Osita Nwanevu, The McCarthy debacle barely scrapes the surface of how dysfunctional Congress is, The Guardian, October 6, 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/06/kevin-mccarthy-congress-corruption-ageing What is Broken in American Politics Is the Republican Party, Politico, October 6, 2023 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/06/republican-leaders-mccarthy-expert-roundup-00120170 Follow The Show Follow Thomas Follow Lily This episode was produced by Connor Lynch
Let’s survey the political landscape and take stock of where things stand almost halfway through 2023. We started this podcast a little over half a year ago, just a few days before the midterms. The election ended in a better result for Democrats than most people expected. That led to a lot of commentary about how the guardrails were supposedly holding, the system was working. Then in early December, the January 6 Committee referred Trump to the Department of Justice for prosecution. All that convinced a lot of commentators that 2022 had been a good year, that the ship had been turned around, that democracy was winning. It says a lot about our current predicament that, in June 2023, such a big-picture look at the political landscape still has to start with Donald Trump. What are we to make of the fact that Trump, despite all the recent legal trouble, is still the clear favorite to be the next Republican presidential nominee? We also look at his wannabe-authoritarian challengers, particularly at Ron DeSantis, and why there seems to be little appetite on the rightwing base for his kind of Trumpless Trumpism. We then look at the escalating assault on equality and the post-1960s civil rights order – on women’s rights; on the lgbtq community and the rights of trans people, in particular; on public education, academic freedom, and freedom of speech. There are signs of an anti-reactionary counter-mobilization – against rightwing book bans, specifically – and we’ll need a lot more of that, as it’s difficult to see how America’s slide into authoritarianism could be stopped without a mass mobilization of pro-democratic civil society forces outside and beyond the established political institutions. We look at those institutions next – and the Democratic Party’s response, in particular. We specifically discuss why Democrats have been unable and/or unwilling to hold Clarence Thomas accountable for the cartoonish level of corruption in which he has engaged, and why there is still no plausible Democratic answer to the problem that the Supreme Court acts as the spearhead of the reactionary assault on democracy and the modern state. It's obviously not all the Democrats’ fault. The mainstream media is also not coming to the rescue of democracy. We talk about what to make of the disastrous CNN Trump town hall and the way the “both sides” coverage of the debt ceiling crisis once again displayed all the usual, harmful tropes of the “Dysfunction in Washington” narrative that only serves to obscure the extent of Republican sabotage. We then turn our attention to the problem of political violence. Across the political spectrum, the percentage of people describing political violence as potentially acceptable has significantly increased. But in practice, the rise in actual violence has almost entirely come from the Right. And, crucially, the reactions to the killing of Jordan Neely on the NYC subway were a reminder that all strands of the Right – Republican elected officials, the media machine, the reactionary intellectual sphere, the conservative base – are now openly and aggressively embracing rightwing vigilante violence. Finally, we reflect on where that all leaves us. As we are heading into summer, normalcy bias is destined to take over even more than it always does. One of the key challenges since the start of the Trump era has been how to communicate effectively to the American public that something other than “politics as usual” is going on, that the threat of democratic erosion is real. The crucial question remains: How do we pierce that sense of “normalcy”? How do we create moments of meaningful disruption? Follow The Show Follow Thomas Follow Lily This episode was produced by Connor Lynch
Let’s tackle the philosophy and culture of Silicon Valley, and how they help us explain the politics of reactionary-to-far-right tech titans like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. In 2020, Adrian Daub published “What Tech Calls Thinking: An Inquiry into the Intellectual Bedrock of Silicon Valley.” In the book, he applied his skills as a literary and cultural scholar, as someone who is trained to dissect and analyze the stories that help us make sense of the world, to his immediate surroundings. Adrian is a Professor of Comparative Literature and German Studies at Stanford University, where he specializes in culture and politics of the nineteenth century, as well as questions of gender and sexuality – he works in a place that is shaped and dominated by the tech industry like probably no other in the world. We talk about why it is important to dissect the philosophies Silicon Valley is built on, the stories it likes to tell about itself, the narratives surrounding the tech industry. We then try to outline the philosophical and ideological universe that shapes the imaginary of Silicon Valley and discuss why figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are so fixated on certain thinkers, how these philosophies and ideas translate into politics, and what to make of the very pronounced tech libertarian to far-right pipeline. Finally, we talk about why so many people in the liberal camp, specifically, have been, at least until recently, under the misguided impression that these tech giants were political allies, when they have so clearly never been on board with the idea of leveling traditional hierarchies of wealth, race, or gender. And why have so many people in positions of power and influence been willing to accept them not just as entrepreneurs, but as thinkers in their own right whose grand ideas about the world matter somehow, whose guidance we should seek? Why has our culture glorified them as visionaries – and is that finally changing, as the reactionary mask has slipped? Show notes: What Tech Calls Thinking: An Inquiry into the Intellectual Bedrock of Silicon Valley Dreams in the Witch House – Adrian’s newsletter Keep up with Adrian’s work via his personal website “The Sabotage of Twitter Is a Disaster for Democracy” – Thomas’ reflection on the politics of Elon Musk and tech oligarchs as a threat to the democratic public square Follow The Show Follow Thomas Follow Lily This episode was produced by Connor Lynch
Julie Grey
brilliant!
AL Hi
This is brilliant podcast, taking deep dives into issues which touch ALL Americans. They flesh out and put into the larger context of the concerns of the country as a whole in an interesting and lively fashion.