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Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what to expect going forward. We also touch on this week’s earnings reports from several big tech companies, and what positive trade talks between the United States and China might mean for the future. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:30 – Expected reports on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and inflation were not published this week due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is on track to be the longest in history once it surpasses the 2018 record of 34 days.03:20 – Coverage of this week’s FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, two diametric dissents, the themes and opinions driving that decision, and Chair Powell’s warning that another rate cut in December is far from guaranteed as we see signs of a weakening labor market, elevated inflation, and a lack of data to make informed decisions due to the government shutdown.05:43 – In reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell’s assertion that a December rate cut is less likely than previously expected, the markets experienced a bit of a reversal of recent gains that were driven by that expectation.07:43 – We discuss the five candidates that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed this week. They include three current and former Fed Governors, the current Director of the National Economic Council, and a BlackRock executive.10:03 – Q3 earnings reports continue to send the stock market higher. The reports from this week’s big companies were Amazon and Alphabet, which were both positive, Apple, which underwhelming but not bad, and Meta and Microsoft, which were both somewhat negative. 12:25 – Positive news from trade talks between the United States and China might reduce the elevated sentiment of geopolitical risk that hit the markets in the first few months of the year on tariff threats, and which has been a question mark ever since.14:58 – The fixed income market has seen some widening in credit spreads following the FOMC meeting, but generally positive credit conditions and future corporate bond issuance herald a robust November. Additional ResourcesRead: The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria – 10/29/2025 FOMC UpdateAsk: Key Questions: Active ETFs or Mutual Funds: Which Belongs in Your Portfolio?  Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Amid the ongoing government shutdown, we look at alternate sources of data to draw a picture of what’s happening with inflation, the labor market, and home sales. Our experts provide insights on the market’s reaction to these reports, the anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, and the performance of different sectors and asset classes. We also touch on some unusual market dynamics, with low-quality and high-beta stocks outperforming higher-quality companies. Finally, we talk sandwiches in celebration of National Bologna Day. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 02:06 – We highlight three key reports from the week: state-level initial weekly unemployment claims suggest no cause for concern, existing home sales are up slightly, and—despite the government shutdown—the Bureau of Labor Statistics was allowed to compile and release a mixed but overall favorable Consumer Price Index report.06:00 – Corporations seem to be navigating increased costs due to tariffs by cutting their labor force.08:50 – The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s FOMC meeting, with many expecting another 25 basis point cut in December, and several more next year. 10:44 – October continues to be a rally month for the bond market thanks to low market volatility, tight credit spreads, and abundant liquidity.12:59 – Equities continued to climb and set all-time highs as third quarter earnings season continues, with a spotlight on reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta next week.15:53 – We discuss differences in quality within the equities and bond markets, and posit an apparent shift in principles and heuristics in equities between the pre- and post-pandemic periods. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: Should Investors Get on Board With the Reshoring of American Manufacturing? Weekly Investment BriefKey QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

The ongoing government shutdown delayed updates of the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, weekly unemployment claims, and retail sales. Still, there was plenty to cover from this week, including the potential impact on the banking sector amid emerging credit concerns, the strength and state of the consumer, recent earnings reports, a dip in oil prices, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the remainder of the year and in 2026 once a new Chair is selected. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 01:35 – The National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index for the month of September fell two points to 98.8, but remains above the historical average. Conversely, the Uncertainty Index rose to 100 – the fourth highest level in 51 years.02:21 – The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report showed little change in overall economic activity, with some districts reporting slight to modest growth and others noting slight softening.04:20 – The earnings reports that have been released thus far for the third quarter paint a favorable picture of a robust stock market, despite signs of softening consumer spending and an uptick in volatility and uncertainty.11:57 – Investors moved toward safe haven assets amid some overall economic softening and news of emerging credit risk.12:38 – Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments point towards a move away from quantitative tightening, an end to the balance sheet runoff in the next few months, and likely two more rate cuts in 2025.15:31 – As the government shutdown continues to fuel confusion, volatility, and uncertainty, our advice to investors is to maintain a long-term perspective with a diversified portfolio and avoiding rash decisions based on dramatic news and short-term fluctuations. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Speakers: Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:58 – Our team of experts discusses the impact of the government shutdown on economic data releases, inflation concerns, and labor market trends.04:35 –  Analysis of bond market movements, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and insights from recent FOMC minutes.08:24 – The panel examines high market valuations, the impact of “hopes and dreams,” and the effects of vendor financing and developments in the AI sector.13:34 –  Insights into gold’s record highs, central bank buying, treasury market trends, and expectations for Q3 earnings season.Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: What Does MAHA Mean for Healthcare and Consumer Staples Companies? | Key Private BankRead: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors?New White Paper: An Introduction to Direct Indexing | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn251002-3563428

Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income 00:54 – We review the key economic data and market activity from the past week, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, the September ADP National Employment Report showing a significant decline in private sector employment, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and services PMI reports.02:45 – The current government shutdown prevented the release of data on weekly initial unemployment claims as well as reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics around new nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.03:23 – One side effect of the shutdown is that the integrity of the data that we did receive may be less reliable. However, the overall labor market is in a "low firing, low hiring" environment, with pockets of strength in consumer spending and AI infrastructure investment.05:36 – We discuss the history of government shutdowns and how the lengthier examples in recent years may be due to increasing partisanship, and what short- and long-term effects a shutdown may have on the labor force, the markets and the economy.09:39 – Treasuries rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets after the shutdown took effect. Attention then turned to the Fed to see whether their recently begun rate-cutting campaign will continue, as is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later this month.14:43 – Despite a year of atypical trends and behavior, this shutdown is expected to go as most past shutdowns have: volatility might jostle the equities and bond markets in the short term, but after the shutdown ends and the temperature goes back down, the markets tend to rebound and resolve at higher levels than prior to the shutdown. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: How Does AI Impact Corporate Companies and Fixed-Income Investors? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Joel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services at Key Private Bank, joins the podcast this week to provide some insights and advice for business owners. He also addresses recent legislation changes that might affect capital gains tax exclusions for certain C corporations. Brian and George break down the news and numbers of the week and discuss the overarching risk appetite of the economy, as evidenced by pockets of concentrated investment in certain sectors like AI. We also touch on the Federal Reserve, equities and fixed income, and the importance of a diversified portfolio. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerJoel Redmond, Managing Director of Business Advisory Services 02:10 – The initial unemployment claims, GDP, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data all showed the economy remains in a relatively strong position, with consumer spending being a key driver.06:00 –the concentration of growth in certain areas, such as AI, raises concerns about the economy's risk profile.09:16 – The economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may only implement one more interest rate cut this year, rather than the multiple cuts some had expected.11:27 – For business owners, especially in the lower middle-market range, the podcast highlights the importance of knowing the value of their business, having proper legal and organizational documentation in order, and having access to expert legal counsel when preparing for a business transition or sale.18:15 – The podcast also discusses a tax provision, Section 1202 of the tax code, that provides significant capital gains tax exclusions for owners of qualified small business stock, which was expanded under the recent "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: How Does the Push to Digitize All Federal Payments To and From the Federal Government Impact You? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn 

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Fed Cut Rates, But Didn’t Cut Loose” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what we might expect in the future. We also step back in time to the mid-1990s to draw parallels to two things we’re seeing today: a rate-cutting Fed amid a tech-driven bull market, and comparing Microsoft’s investment in Apple back then to Nvidia’s potential investment in Intel today. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:51 – We report on the generally positive numbers across retail sales, industrial production, and weekly initial unemployment claims.03:47 – Coverage of this week’s FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, the themes and opinions driving that decision, Chair Powell’s press briefing, and the likelihood of further cuts this year.09:25 – Both the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yields climbed steadily leading up to, and after, the FOMC meeting, signaling that buyers have not stepped in yet.12:42 – A historical lookback at the mid-1990s, when the Fed was cutting rates amid a stock market boom fueled by the emergent tech sector, in a parallel fashion to today’s market and economic activity.14:59 – We discuss Nvidia’s potential investment in Intel, and what this means for domestic and overseas investment and manufacturing. Additional ResourcesRead: The Fed Cuts Rates, But Didn’t Cut Loose – 9/17/2025 FOMC UpdateAsk: What Are Nine Things to Watch as We Begin the Ninth Month of the Year? Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we break down the factors and trends shaping the economy, including new reports that shed some light on labor and inflation. Expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) appear to be the main driving force behind movements in fixed income and equities. Please join us on Thursday, September 18, where we’ll sit down with experts in Artificial Intelligence during our National Call: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know. And be sure to tune in again next week, where we’ll recap the news from this highly-anticipated FOMC meeting, and anything else impacting the markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:16 – We consider a softening labor market as evidenced by an increase in weekly initial unemployment claims and the semi-annual update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics detailing a correction of over 900,000 fewer jobs in the 12-month period ending in March 2025 than was initially reported.03:42 – The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a slight decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated higher-than-expected month-over-month and year-over-year inflation, driven mainly by food and shelter costs.04:48 – The Fed seems poised to resume interest rate cuts with next week’s FOMC meeting, as fears of making a policy error dissipate as rising (but not accelerating) inflation and a cooling jobs market create an opportunistic environment for rate cutting.06:40 – Treasuries show demand and momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting, with the 2-Year Treasury yield hitting 3.55% and the 10-Year around 4.06%.11:04 – Equities buck the historical norm of taking a downturn this time of year, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts and record investments in tentpole industries like Artificial Intelligence in an apparently non-recessionary climate.14:08 – A brief look into what’s happening with resilient crude oil prices and early stimulation in the housing market.16:11 – We revisit our predictions for 2025 that were made late last year, and gauge how accurate they have been thus far. Additional Resources9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to KnowKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we discuss the Beige Book Report, and three employment reports including fresh numbers from a weaker-than-expected report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We also touch on the policies and politics bedeviling the Federal Reserve, and the likelihood of rate cuts later this month. As always, we analyze how all of these factors affect the equity and bond markets. Finally, happy National 401(k) Day! See today’s resources below to help you educate and celebrate. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:45 – The four reports driving economic activity this week: the Beige Book report, initial unemployment claims, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and the eagerly-expected BLS Employment Situation report. 05:21 – The weak BLS report further fuels expectations for a September rate cut, with the odds of bigger or more frequent cuts increasing.07:28 – A look into the economy’s impact on the stock market, and vice versa, and the k-shaped economy of 401(k) haves and have-nots.09:19– Treasuries have rallied on the jobs report, with some calling it a “jobs recession.”11:20 – We discuss the goings-on at the Federal Reserve, including Stephen Miran’s confirmation hearing for Fed Governor and Scott Bessent’s alleged interviews for the next Fed Chair.14:11 – In the world of equities, cyclicals and small cap stocks are ascending as mega-cap tech stocks had a slower week.18:45 – Concluding thoughts on the still-present threat of tariffs impacting the economy, and what to do with your portfolio now.  National 401(k) Day ResourcesRetirement AdviceShould I Still Worry About Inflation’s Impact on My Retirement Plan?The Key 401(k) Pooled Employer Plan Additional Resources9/18 Webinar: Key Wealth's National Call - AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to KnowKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn 

In this week's episode, we discuss the latest economic and market news, including updates on unemployment claims, GDP growth, and inflation data. Our experts provide their insights and analysis on the implications of these and other economic developments, particularly the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. We also touch on the potential political challenges facing the Fed and questions about its independence and how that could affect the equity and bond markets. 01:59 – The three reports this week on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and consumer spending, are painting a mixed picture of the economy.04:49 – Nvidia’s earnings report feels representative of the broader market; equities continued to climb this week, despite a sell off Friday morning and the potential for seasonal plateaus.06:15 – Turmoil at the Fed having minimal impact on equities, but the bond market appears much more susceptible as the yield curve steepens.08:29 – We ruminate on the implications for Fed independence, the rate environment, and overall economic and social implications of a change in the composition of the Fed Board of Governors.10:28 – Parallels may be seen between the current economic climate and the bubble of the late 1990s to mid 2000s.13:28 – Rate cuts are still likely at September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.14:31 – Some advice on how to approach your portfolio in the midst of an uncertain economic and political climate.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities Additional ResourcesAttend: AI: Everything You Are Afraid to Ask but Need to Know.Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, our experts review the now-stale minutes from July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s new dovishness from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and what to look out for in the coming weeks as we near the end of a notable summer. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:30 – We highlight this week’s economic releases: the Labor Department reports that weekly unemployment claims rose slightly but remained stable over the past 18 months, and the National Association of Realtors reports that existing home sales rose by 2% in July.03:43 – The July FOMC minutes were hawkish, and show Committee member concerns over tariff-driven inflation, elevated asset valuations, and that the current fed funds rate may not be far above neutral. The meeting pre-dated the weaker July employment report and subsequent shift in focus from inflation to the cooling jobs market.04:52 – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears to pivot towards a dovish stance and emphasizing the downside risks to the labor market at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; expectations of a rate-cutting cycle beginning in September shot up and Treasury yields dropped sharply in response.07:47 – Political turmoil continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve on allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has been pressured to resign or face removal by President Trump. 12:45 – We discuss the apparent bifurcation in the economy, with weakness in consumer spending offset by strength in business investment, particularly in data centers and artificial intelligence.16:46 – We anticipate how the market might react to an upcoming earnings report from Nvidia and news that the federal government is considering taking ownership positions in tech stocks. Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: How Does Key Wealth Define Quality Within Our Internally Managed Equity Strategies?Watch: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

This week was lighter on economic news and reporting—certainly when compared to the previous two action-packed weeks—so we’re shaking things up for this episode. Each expert brings to the table a news item that caught his eye this week, and one topic that might not be receiving enough attention. Topics include skyrocketing investment into artificial intelligence, the fractures at the Federal Reserve (see Additional Resources below for a link to past guest Cynthia Honcharenko’s take on the interesting dynamics taking place at the Fed), turmoil in the gold market, the changing demographics of the labor market amid evolving ways and means of working, and more. Wishing a happy International Beer Day and National Pickleball Day to those who celebrate; maybe not at the same time. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities02:23 – The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index—a measure of the health of the U.S. services sector—dipped to 50.1 in July, down from June’s 50.8. 02:42 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 were up 7,000 claims from the previous week, for a total of 226,000 initial claims.03:32 – Investment in AI technologies exceeded $150 billion in the first half of the year, which may contribute to the increasing productivity in the workforce as measured by recent average revenue per employee figures.05:52 – The Fed continues to fracture amid a surprise appointment of a temporary Fed governor to fill a recently-vacated seat. 07:28 – The ups and downs of Trump’s order to allow private equity investment in 401 (k) retirement plans.08:40 – China is mentioned less in the news these days, but that doesn’t mean nothing newsworthy is happening there. Portfolio diversification through international markets is a good idea, and there’s some potential in the Chinese markets.10:17 – A discussion on the turmoil in the gold markets on news of a 39% import tax on some gold coming into the U.S.13:45 – With an outsized population of retirees on the horizon, and a new generation coming into the workforce with a very different jobs landscape, what’s the future of productivity?15:02 – Diversification is the sound investment strategy for the day. We’re seeing some softness in the labor market, but most economic indicators are favorable. Still, things can be unpredictable, and a diversified portfolio can shield you from some targeted disruptions.  Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: Cracks in the Foundation: Symbolic or Systemic? Fed Unity Frays as Policy Dissonance Grows.Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we discuss eight reports and news items that are impacting the economy today, and which will likely have lingering effects into the future; these touch on the labor market in regard to unemployment and payrolls, housing, inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), earnings season, and – the big news of the week – what came out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the lower than expected new non-farm payroll report. As always, we analyze these items and how they’re affecting the equity and bond markets, and what moves investors may consider making.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management 01:47 – We introduce the eight topics and reports that lay the groundwork for our discussion: weekly initial unemployment claims, job openings, existing home sales, GDP for Q2:2025, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, the jobs report showing underwhelming numbers for new nonfarm payrolls, a negative revision for the May and June figures, and a slight bump in overall unemployment, the FOMC meeting, and news from the midst of earning season.06:30 – The big items from the FOMC: rates remain unchanged, two governors voice dissent, and no firm commitment on a September rate cut. The reasoning behind the continued fed funds rate is that inflation is still elevated, the labor market is robust, unemployment remains low, and inflationary pressures persist due to trade uncertainties.07:42 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell touched on 7 themes during the post-meeting press conference: no rate cuts, monetary policy is restrictive, pressure from tariffs, conflicting pressures between inflation and the labor market, market pricing recalibration, Fed independence in rate setting in light of government borrowing costs, and acknowledging the notable dual dissents within the FOMC meeting.09:35 – The likelihood of a September rate cut dropped to 39% at the time of the FOMC meeting, with a fourth quarter cut more likely. The dissent from governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman seems less politically motivated than borne out of genuine care for the labor market.12:38 – The labor market is stable but might be starting to show some cracks signaling a potential slowdown as layoffs are low but so is hiring.17:01 – The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy, rose slightly following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, then dropped significantly today in reaction to this morning’s jobs report – the biggest such reaction since 2004. Given this volatility, expectations of a September rate cut are now increasing.20:07 – Shifting tariffs and trade policy seem to be hitting the stock market this week, with falling copper futures as a notable example. 21:16 – The Trump administration’s recent pushback against Powell’s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts appears prescient given the market reaction to today’s lukewarm jobs report. There’s now a higher chance of a Powell resignation as a Fed governor rather than finishing out his full term, after a potential replacement as the sitting Fed Chair.24:14 – As earnings season continues, major tech companies are showing mixed results, with Microsoft and Meta reporting favorably in contrast to lackluster reports from Amazon and Apple.Additional ResourcesRead: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” That Will Impact Businesses?Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) ActKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we review the unemployment and home sales figures that were released this week, as well as the ongoing trade tensions and tariff negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. We also touch on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and President Trump’s visit to tour the renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, D.C. Lastly, we look into the performance of the stock market, including the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, a new round of corporate earnings, and the resurgence of "meme stocks."Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:47 – The initial unemployment claims report showed a decline, indicating a robust employment market. However, existing home sales fell due to higher mortgage rates.02:35 – The European Central Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle, which could be an indirect factor in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. President Trump also visited the Federal Reserve and spoke with Chair Jerome Powell.03:52 – Regarding tariffs, the U.S. reached a tentative agreement with Japan to lower tariff rates, which was seen as positive news. However, the overall tariff rate remains elevated compared to the beginning of the year.07:58 – A discussion on the resilience of the economy, with corporate earnings exceeding expectations and the labor market remaining healthy. They also noted some potential headwinds, such as policy uncertainty and the potential for market volatility as we head into autumn. Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' that Will Impact Individuals?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump’s desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.02:46 – The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump’s ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week’s economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week’s rumors of Powell’s potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon’s presidency for what might happen in the future.13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law?Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:36 - Recap of employment data which shows stability with positive revisions and declining unemployment claims. 03:54 - Discussion about renewed tariff threats (up to 200%) and their potential to slow growth and raise inflation. The team highlights the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on deficits and long-term interest rates.08:48 - Reflection on a volatile first half of 2025 and anticipates modest gains through August. Forecast of potential market “indigestion” in September–October due to valuation concerns14:33 - Prediction of two rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September. The team emphasizes uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, and recommends high-quality corporate bonds over Treasuries.Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law? | Key Private BankBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher, and the stock market is having a heyday, despite the dollar hitting a three-year low. We will be off next week for the July 4th holiday, and look forward to bringing you fresh insights the following week.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:16 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 came in at 236,000 – 10,000 lower than the prior week – which was a welcome sign given this figure’s recent upward trajectory.02:43 – The final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.5% contraction, caused by an increase in imports ahead of President Trump’s insistence on widespread tariffs.03:37 – Inflation – excluding food and energy – remained sticky in May, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up to 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.7% year-over-year.05:01 – Following a run of resiliency, key economic indicators appear to be following suit with the negative sentiment that has been pervasive in the first half of 2025.09:47 – Fed Funds futures are pricing in a modest 20% chance of a rate cut in July, but expectations of the first rate cut in September appear more solid at 90% odds.10:22 – Bond yields moved higher in reaction to the PCE inflation data, while the U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in three years.11:58 – Investment grade credit spreads remain unchanged for the week and continue to trade at a very tight range.13:39 – The stock market is enjoying all-time highs that will likely continue into next month, furthering the trend of July being the best-performing month of the year, based on historical data.17:56 – The 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is set to expire on July 9, though recent news suggests this is more of a soft target than a hard deadline. Additional ResourcesWhat Happens If the TCJA Expires? Why It Matters Now for Your Taxes and Your LegacyBooks and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and ListeningKey Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to report on dampened economic projections, forecast two potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year, and reaffirm the wait-and-see approach that has been a hallmark of Fed policy thus far in 2025. Our experts analyze what came out of the meeting, how investors should respond, and what the future may hold. We also break down the key provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, what comes next in the Senate, and highlight four provisions that may impact you.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio ManagementJoe Velkos, National Tax Director, Key Wealth02:12 – The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report showed a 0.9% month-over-month dip in May, and April figures were revised to a 0.1% decline.03:12 – U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, according to the Federal Reserve. 03:54 – At this week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.04:07 – We look at key economic projections, including a lowered GDP growth median, higher inflation projections, and increased unemployment forecasts. 05:03 – The median FOMC forecast sees two 25 basis points cuts in 2025, though there appears to be disagreement among members with some expecting no rate cuts in 2025, while others expect only a single 25 basis points cut this year.06:10 – The markets and analysts weigh in on the probability of rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious and confirmed the Fed is positioned to respond as needed, especially considering uncertainty around the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation.10:45 – A discussion on who might succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.12:54 – Uncertainty across several fronts signals a wide range of possible outcomes in international and domestic markets and politics. For investors’ portfolios, diversification will be as important as it’s ever been.15:14 – Joe Velkos, National Tax Director for Key Wealth, joins us to walk through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed by the House of Representatives on May 22.19:07 – The bill faces opposition in the Senate, including among Republicans, making it unlikely that the bill will remain unchanged or that it will be passed before July 4th, as is President Trump’s goal.20:18 – We highlight four key provisions of the bill: an increase to the maximum state local tax deduction, an increase to the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, restoring the bonus depreciation for business owners, and the new proposed elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay. Additional ResourcesWatch the replay of our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, Ather Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research, joins us to deliver a masterclass in private credit – what it is, why it’s important, and what to consider before investing. We also unpack new surveys and reports across a variety of topics including unemployment, inflation, and volatility. As usual, we look at where the markets are in light of the global and national news of the day, such as increasing conflict in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesAther Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research 00:23 – The PGA U.S. Open tries to provide a bright spot during a week of somber news from around the globe, including the passing of Beach Boys’ keyboardist Brian Wilson.01:50 – Initial weekly unemployment claims remain stable from the previous week.02:18 – The Consumer Price Index shows mixed stories amid persistent inflation; the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% stays elusive.03:23 – The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting.05:06 – Escalating tensions in the Middle East have a negligible downside effect on a stock marketing experiencing all-time highs.07:33 – A University of Michigan survey of consumers and an American Association of Individual Investors survey indicate an overall improving attitude toward the economy, despite an uptick in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).10:59 – An introductory overview of the trending private credit market.15:02 – Why private credit is becoming increasingly popular, and what changes we’re seeing in the quality of participants.17:35 – The advantages and considerations of private credit, and what to consider before making this investment.  Additional ResourcesKey Questions: What Tax Proposals Are in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' That All Taxpayers Should Be Aware Of? Key Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode we unpack three reports about the labor market; the mixed results show an uptick in new job openings amid increasing initial weekly unemployment claims, though the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. We also discuss the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, which shows elevated levels of consumer and commercial uncertainty ahead of the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As always, we analyze how this news is affecting the equity and fixed income markets. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:07 – The Fed’s Beige Book shows mixed growth across districts, and an increasing degree of policy and economic uncertainty.02:59 – We introduce two reports about jobs and payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and another report from the Department of Labor on unemployment.06:20 – Putting the news of the week in context of the overall uncertainty caused by the question of tariffs and trade policy.07:24 – Equities appear to be on an upward trajectory calling the old “Sell in May and go away” adage into question.10:05 – The Magnificent 7 companies’ stocks take diverging paths resulting from tariffs or noise from the Beltway.12:10 – The bond market reacts to the nonfarm payroll news, while traders ease their expectations of future rate cuts.13:27 – Treasury yields moved higher, though buyers remain standoffish amid the continuing debate on the U.S. fiscal deficit and tax policy.15:27 – Credit spreads show an optimistic outlook, especially on corporate issuances.16:31 – In a reversal of the historic norm, global central banks made moves to cut rates rather than following the U.S. Fed’s example.Additional ResourcesJoin our June 11 National CallKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn