Lagniappe

Interest rates are climbing, but the market doesn’t seem particularly bothered. Greg and Doug dig into why the 10-year Treasury has pushed above 5%, arguing that stronger economic growth, persistent inflation, and the massive AI infrastructure buildout may be doing more to drive rates than fears about U.S. debt. They also look at the relationship between Iran, oil prices and inflation; why higher rates may hurt traditional parts of the economy without slowing AI investment; and what the approaching midterm elections could mean for markets. Finally, they examine the historically strong stretch that tends to follow the first three quarters of a midterm year, and why falling political uncertainty could provide another tailwind for investors. Key Takeaways 00:17 — Why 5% interest rates aren’t scaring the market 04:57 — Iran, oil and the inflation expectation 06:39 — Are the U.S. and Iran moving closer to a deal? 08:02 — Why higher rates aren’t slowing the AI buildout 11:15 — The historically strongest stretch of the midterm cycle 14:45 — Why markets like falling uncertainty View Transcript Links: In midterm years, October is usually the best month for stocks, with gains 73.7% of the time Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

The Fed is hiking again, bond yields are back above 5%, and inflation remains stubborn, but the economy and consumer continue to show surprising strength. Greg and Doug break down what the latest rate move means for markets, how the Iran conflict and massive infrastructure spending are pushing prices higher, and why retail sales and employment data don’t look particularly recessionary. Then they turn to AI, the latest warnings about its existential risks, and whether calls for tighter regulation are really about safety or established AI companies trying to protect themselves from competition. Key Takeaways 00:17 — The Fed raises rates as inflation stays hot 04:13 — Infrastructure, Iran and what’s driving inflation 06:31 — Why Iran could be the key to markets and inflation 09:44 — The American consumer keeps spending 11:06 — AI isn’t destroying the job market 13:27 — Is AI really going to destroy humanity? 15:03 — AI regulation and the case for regulatory capture 17:11 — Putting AI doomsday fears in perspective 19:21 — Guardrails, cyber defense and managing AI risk View Transcript Links Americans Without College Degrees Are Having One of the Best Job Markets in Years The Mall Comeback Is Here The Anonymous Math Geek Who Quit Anthropic—and Became the Face of AI Safety How a New Princeton Study Disproves AI Self-Improvement Alarmism Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Doug and Greg break down a surprisingly strong jobs report and why good economic news can sometimes be bad news for markets when it raises the prospect of higher interest rates. They discuss the massive investment fueling the AI infrastructure boom, its impact on inflation and the bond market, and why Americans remain pessimistic about the economy despite strong employment and record markets. They also weigh the potential risks and enormous opportunities surrounding AI before closing with a reflection on NYC and the lasting significance of September 11. Key Takeaways 00:17  -  A strong jobs report shakes up rate expectations 03:29  -  Why the recent job numbers are dominated by women  05:09  -  When good economic news becomes bad market news 06:35  -  How AI is reshaping the bond market 09:21  -  New inflationary pressures 11:03  -  Why Americans still feel bad about the economy 15:14  -  Fear vs. optimism for AI 17:35  -  New York, 25 years after September 11 View Transcript Links Six Charts That Explain How Americans Really Feel About the Economy Anthropic Researcher Quits Over ‘Out-of-Control’ AI Fears Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Markets are digesting shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve, stubbornly high interest rates, and continued uncertainty surrounding Iran. Doug and Greg discuss why government debt, not 5% interest rates, may be the bigger concern, how higher yields are changing the bond market, and why geopolitical tensions haven't derailed stocks. Plus, they look at what prediction markets are saying about the upcoming midterm elections, explain why politics shouldn't dictate your long-term investment strategy, and the good news behind interest rates. Key Takeaways 00:02 — The markets react to the Fed 03:00 — Government spending & the cost of debt 05:05 — Are 5% interest rates really that high? 08:10 — Households are in better shape than governments 09:30 — Iran's impact on rates, oil, & inflation 15:43 — What prediction markets say about the midterms 19:26 — Why politics shouldn't change your portfolio 20:36 — The good news about 5% bond yields View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Louisiana is having an economic moment. Doug and Greg talk about the massive new SpaceX investment and why it could be one of the biggest development wins in state history. Then, they turn to the markets, where Nvidia’s staggering growth and continued AI infrastructure spending are showing few signs of slowing down. The guys also discuss why today’s AI boom looks fundamentally different from the speculative excesses of 2020–2021, what an upcoming wave of major IPOs could signal, and what they’re watching for as the market continues to push near record highs. Key Takeaways [00:00] — Markets await the Fed at Jackson Hole [03:15] — SpaceX’s massive Louisiana investment [06:08] — The bullish economic case for Louisiana [10:15] — Nvidia & the AI spending boom [13:12] — Is an IPO wave still coming? [18:47] — The market fundamentally still looks great View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener’s individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener’s choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.