Lloyd's List: The Shipping Podcast

THE geopolitical landscape changed seemingly by the hour in 2024, and 2025 has started in a similar vein. Cable cutting, new tranches of sanctions from the outgoing Biden administration and Chinese shipping giant Cosco being placed on a US Department of Defense sanctions for links to the Chinese military – all of that has happened in the first 10 days of 2025. But before all of that though, our risk and compliance experts gathered to discuss what they would be looking out for in 2025 and what you should be expecting from the year ahead. They discussed how sanctions handed down by multiple governments are attempting to control the trade of a growing dark fleet*, the increase in Automated Identification System manipulation, plus they debate whether shipping will return to the Red Sea in 2025. Joining reporter Joshua Minchin on this episode are: • Michelle Wiese Bockmann, principal analyst, Lloyd’s List • Tomer Raanan, senior maritime reporter, Lloyd’s List • Bridget Diakun, maritime risk analyst, Lloyd’s List * Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined in US State Department guidance issued in May 2020. The figures exclude tankers tracked to government-controlled shipping entities such as Russia’s Sovcomflot, or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co, and those already sanctioned.

Decarbonisation is one of the most written-about topics in Lloyd’s List. Read our daily briefing on any given day and it will more than likely contain at least one story dedicated to the industry’s journey towards net zero. And there’s good reason for that too. It dominates shipping headlines and touches every corner of our industry and 2025 could be a pivotal year in shipping’s long history. Not only are there major changes to the European Union’s FuelEU and Emissions Trading System about to come into force, but many believe the world’s first international carbon levy could be agreed at the International Maritime Organization during meetings of its Marine Environment Protection Committee later this year. So, how likely is it that shipping gets a firm agreement from the IMO that carries some weight? And, if nothing is agreed, then what does the future of the regulator look like? To talk you through what could be a momentous year in securing shipping’s future, here’s multimedia editor and former sustainability editor Declan Bush, and Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief, Richard Meade.

Reading the runes of this industry is often a futile and thankless task – predictions are regularly wiped out just hours after they are made. Despite that, our markets team assembled to make sure you are as prepared as you can be in our unpredictable sector for the year ahead. Senior maritime reporter Greg Miller discusses tankers and dry bulk, asking why the year started off so well for both before reaching a disappointing climax. Containers editor James Baker joins Greg to ask whether the box sector gravy train will ever end, and finally markets editor Robert Willmington takes a look at the shipbuilding market and makes some predictions about recycling and sale and purchase in 2025. There is plenty more to come from the rest of the Lloyd’s List team in the New Year to make sure you’re briefed for the year ahead. But if you want to listen to any of our episodes from 2024, you can find them all on Spotify, Soundcloud, as well as the Lloyd’s List app.

Another year over, a new one just begun. As the clock ticks down on 2024 and 2025 begins, shipping is braced for another unpredictable year. Reading the runes of this industry is often a futile and thankless task – predictions are regularly wiped out just hours after they are made. But nevertheless, to prepare you for the New Year the Lloyd’s List editorial team is going to be bringing you several mini episodes of the podcast over the next couple of weeks, in which they will discuss the things they are looking out for in 2025. We’ll be talking about decarbonisation, risk and compliance, the container, tanker and dry bulk markets, as well as the marine insurance sector too. But to kick things off, editor-in chief Richard Meade and our Asia Pacific editor Cichen Shen sat down to take a bird’s eye view of the industry, and reveal what they will be waiting for in 2025.

The volume and frequency of sanctions being targeted against shipping has never higher, or more visible, Sanctions are now a daily part of the Lloyd’s List news agenda, so it’s sometimes difficult to see how and how fast things are changing. But the risk and compliance landscape has noticeably changed this year – we’re seeing more targeted sanctions, and in response we’re seeing an ever-evolving shift of circumvention tactics, from an ever growing dark fleet that is looking more and more dangerous by the day. And the politics are also shifting. Much of Donald Trump’s sanctions strategy remains unclear, and on past experience, unpredictable. It’s a fair bet that Tehran can expect to be under more pressure post January 20 next year. But what happens with Russia – that’s the big question. And what does that mean for the rest of shipping that has been left to navigate its way around not just an increasingly hefty compliance burden, but what is essentially a tiered trading system where one part of the industry is jumping through hoops to apply regulation and decarbonise and pay for carbon burned… While another section sails without basic adherence to safety regulations, no insurance, no legitimate flag – they are outside of the rules based order and they are earning a premium for it. So when Lloyd’s List hosted its annual Outlook Forum in London earlier this month, this was the context to our discussions around sanctions risk and compliance. If you haven’t already listened to the previous edition of the podcast where we brought you highlights of the first panel from our outlook event, then now would be a good time to hit pause and go back to listen to that one first. For the rest of you though, this is the second and final part of our edited highlight series that you’re going to be listening to today. Joining Richard on the panel were: Michelle Linderman, partner, Van Bael & Bellis Daniel Martin, partner, HFW Michelle Wiese Bockmann, principal analyst, Lloyd’s List Bridget Diakun, maritime risk analyst, Lloyd’s List

Each year, Lloyd’s List likes to gather a group of industry leaders, lock them in a room and not let them leave until they have divined the fate and fortunes of the shipping industry for the year to come. And that’s what we did earlier this month in London at the annual Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum, sponsored by Lloyd’s Register. Having gathered a baseline of crowdsourced knowledge from Lloyd’s List readers, we invited an all star line up of shipping’s sharpest minds to join us for a discussion of the opportunities and threats that will be shaping shipping next year and beyond. Understanding the tipping points that will determine the future of the industry is absolutely critical, and you can learn what to look out for in 2025 in this week’s episode, which brings you highlights from the event in London. • • Nick Brown, chief executive, Lloyd’s Register • Karrie Trauth, senior vice-president and head of shipping and maritime, Shell • Tanuj Luthra, chief operating officer, Zodiac Maritime • Andrea Olivi, global head of shipping, Trafigura • Michael Parker, Citi global shipping, logistics and offshore chairman and chair of the Poseidon Principles Want more insight? Download our Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum: 2025 and beyond Summary and Key Takeaways document, including the results from our Outlook survey and key quotes and charts from the event here: https://info.lloydslistintelligence.com/lloyds-list-outlook-forum-2025-and-beyond

EVER wanted to know what it’s like to operate ships where half the crew are women? Well, this week’s podcast is going to tell you. Lloyd’s List’s principal analyst, Michelle Wiese Bockmann, spoke to Hafnia, the New York and Oslo listed shipowner about a trailblazing initiative that has seen them crew five product tankers with 50% women. But I also want to highlight some of the positive steps being taken to integrate women to a seafaring career and international maritime industry generally. But there’s also an important piece of history to mark. Michelle catches up with the two women who founded the Women’s International Shipping and Trading Association at the very same pub in London where its first meeting was held 50 years ago. It’s important to highlight and recognise the treatment women receive at sea. But it’s also important to highlight some of the positive steps being taken to integrate women to a seafaring career and international maritime industry generally.

After enduring social unrest, geopolitical tensions and the Covid-19 pandemic, this Asian financial and shipping hub — long seen by many as in decline — has finally found an opportunity to stage a comeback. The Action Plan on Green Maritime Fuel Bunkering and accompanying incentive scheme unveiled a few weeks ago is seen by the local shipping community as a step by the Hong Kong government in the right direction — but only a step. The ambition is big, because behind it is not just a Hong Kong story, but a China story. Here, promoting renewables and ensuring energy security are closely intertwined, and its massive scale and cost advantage in this sector has led people to believe that the country will become the world’s largest supplier of low-emission fuels, such as green methanol and ammonia. Hong Kong, a former British colony and the most outward-looking and free trading part of Chinese territory, despite Beijing’s tightening grip over the past decade, should become one of the most important exporters, or a trading hub for these fuels to reach the world, some argue. In the words of Hong Kong Chamber of Shipping chairman Hing Chao, the vision is to “provide a Chinese solution to global maritime decarbonisation¨ through Hong Kong. Can this vision succeed? What more does Hong Kong need to do? For example, does it need to implement its own carbon pricing mechanism with neighbouring Chinese ports, say those in the Hong Kong-Macao-Guangdong Greater Bay Area, or GBA, before the International Maritime Organization’s mid-term measures roll out? More importantly, can China fulfil its ambition to become the “world’s factory” for green fuels? What challenges need to be overcome? Also, will geopolitics, which is accelerating the reconfiguration of global trade and supply chains, and arguably also affecting the pace of global decarbonisation, hinder the realisation of this ambition? Joining Cichen on this week’s episode are: Hing Chao, chairman of the Hong Kong Chamber of Shipping and Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Roberto Giannetta, chairman of the Hong Kong Liner Shipping Association Sanjay Kuttan, chief strategy officer of the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation

This episode of the Lloyd’s List podcast is brought to you by Lloyd’s Register and Columbia Shipmanagement Sign up for the Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum here: https://info.lloydslistintelligence.com/lloyds-list-outlook-forum-rsvp The maritime industry is evolving faster than we often realise. Just a few years ago, high-frequency data collection was groundbreaking. Today, cloud-to-cloud connectivity and AI-powered optimisation platforms are a normal part of operations. Advanced vessel connectivity is scaling rapidly, and generative AI and machine learning are poised to accelerate those changes dramatically. If you missed the previous edition of this podcast, go back and listen to the experts explain what has happened, is happening and will happen, because there is progress there - the industry innovating faster than we often recognise. You can find it here. But it’s important to not just focus on the tech, the widgets, the data and the artificial intelligence. The bit often missed in all this is the human intelligence. And to me that’s the more interesting part of the story. It’s where the greatest opportunities lie, but it’s also the biggest risk.

This episode of the Lloyd's List podcast is brought to you by Lloyd's Register and Columbia Shipmanagement Sign up for the Lloyd's List Outlook Forum here: https://info.lloydslistintelligence.com/lloyds-list-outlook-forum-rsvp The wave of techno-optimism that began to spread in the wake of pandemic-related breakthroughs should be visible by now. Forced to embrace digitisation out of remote working necessity, firms outlined juicy research-and-development plans and governments promised to spend big on science. While it would be a stretch to say that the pandemic fuelled optimism, it certainly catalysed investment in technology research across sectors, and crucially coincided with an innovation arms race that was already escalating between China and the US. The principal project of the era, decarbonisation, spawned hundreds of funded technology projects, with as many again in the pipeline. And then of course there is AI. If some in the sector were to be believed, AI should have revolutionised shipping and everything else by now. All things considered, we should be living through a golden age of innovation. And yet it is often hard to see the evidence for that in shipping. Where are the breakthroughs? What do the great leap forwards looks like? There is no single unifying answer here and that’s part of the problem, but it’s also a huge opportunity. Joining Richard on the podcast this week are: Alexander Saverys, chief executive CMB.Tech Søren Meyer, chief executive of ZeroNorth Richard Buckley, chief executive of Ninety Percent of Everything Eman Abdalla, global operations director at Cargill Ocean Transportation Saskia Mureau, digital director at the Port of Rotterdam Authority Chakib Abi-Saab, chief technology officer at Lloyd's Register

This episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast was brought to you by Veson. Visit veson.com/decision-advantage for more information. Ten years or so ago, when the University of Plymouth ran their first cybersecurity symposium, the number attendees barely made double figures. This week, held in the main hall of the International Maritime Organization on London’s Albert Embankment, the same event attracted more than 300, from shipping companies in almost every sector. Clearly, the topic has gained attention and traction, partly down to the repeated warnings of horror stories the industry continues to receive, right the way up to hackers being able to remotely control very large crude carriers. There have been several high-profile cyber incidents in shipping since the devastating NotPetya attack which cost Maersk more than $250m in 2017. The Port of Seattle, the Port of Lisbon and class society DNV can all count themselves of cyber attacks in the last two years. But the apocalyptic vision that has been painted for the industry time and time again hasn’t materialised yet. So, how worried should we really be about cybersecurity in shipping? Joining Joshua on the podcast this week are: Kevin Jones, professor of computer science and director of the Maritime Cyber Threats Research Group, University of Plymouth Daniel Ng, chief executive of Cyberowl Svante Einarsson, head of cybersecurity maritime for EMEA and APAC, DNV Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, maritime chief executive, DNV

When the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) issued a paper in September setting out its position on the human element, its implications were clearly going to be far reaching. Its publication followed an IACS presentation in June to the Human Element Industry Group, which is made up of a number of maritime NGOs and it says that IACS’ aims “to highlight and emphasise the importance of … human element aspects when developing new IACS requirements applicable to the ship and ship systems.” RINA’s Secretary General Roberto Cazzulo currently chairs IACS’ Council, giving the Italian organisation a particular significance in any discussion about its implications and, in this podcast, RINA’s North Europe Region Senior Director for RINA’s marine activities Fiorenzo Spadoni, puts IACS’ approach into context, saying that it reflected significant industry changes driven by digitalisation, decarbonisation and increasingly complex ship systems. He also discussed whether these developments can help move the industry closer to net-zero emissions. “One critical factor in achieving net zero is the role of the human workforce” and by providing seafarers with skills and motivation to manage these technologies, “we are accelerating their adoption and the path toward net-zero,” he said.

The global climate circus heads to Baku, Azerbaijan this weekend for the start of the annual COP confab. That’s the Conference of the Parties, meaning signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change — or COP 29. Shipping will be there, but don’t expect much in the way of headline conclusions this year. If there is going to be any progress from this meeting, it’s going to focus on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. So why are we talking about COP this week? The reality is that COPs have never really been about shipping, but what happens inside COP has a direct bearing on what happens next in terms of shipping’s long term regulatory future. This year specifically COP is taking place just six months before the International Maritime Organization sits down agree the economic and technical measures to hit the industry’s 2050 net zero targets. What happens in COP has at least some bearing on what happens in the IMO and perhaps more importantly, shipping’s ability to make connections across the energy departments out in Azerbaijan over the next two weeks are going to be crucial to the process that follows whatever comes out of the IMO. Shipping may not be a huge part of COP, but COP matters hugely to shipping. Joining Richard on the podcast this week are: Dr Tristan Smith, University College London Katharine Palmer, Shipping Lead, UNFCC Climate Champions

Once a year, an industry alliance of first-movers and green investors gather in a room for shipping’s answer to Davos, the annual Global Maritime Forum. And it’s always an interesting conversation. These are shipping’s optimists. The progressive cohort of industry leaders who have collectively invested billions of dollars in decarbonisation projects and spawned voluntary projects advancing everything from transparent green finance and insurance to diversity programmes and climate-aligned chartering. But it’s not easy being an optimist in shipping right now. There are the obvious geopolitical headwinds blowing in of course, but there is also a growing sense that the industry in wait and see mode. Shipping’s green first-movers are increasingly unlikely to move further without a sufficiently robust regulatory framework from the International Maritime Organization next year. Scratch below the surface of the conversations about progress and innovation, and it’s apparent that we’re not yet at a stage where, even without the regulation, the industry is yet aligned on who ends up footing the bill for what is going to be a very expensive transition to green fuels and even basic efficiency investments. And yet, despite all that, when the GMF gathered in Tokyo earlier this month there was a palpable sense of optimism in the room and genuine evidence that progress is not just possible, it is now inevitable. So, has the shipping industry really moved from laggard to leader in the race to decarbonise? Joining Richard on this week's episode are: Eman Abdalla, global operations director ocean transportation division, Cargill Laure Baratgin, head of commercial operations, Rio Tinto Matthieu de Tugny, head of marine and offshore, Bureau Veritas Nick Brown, chief executive, Lloyd’s Register Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general, IMO Johanna Christensen, chief executive, Global Maritime Forum

There have been shipowners listed on Wall Street going back to the 1980s, but it was only in the mid-2000s – with the China trade boom – that the shipping industry really came to the US public markets in a major way. In the two decades since then, there have been some controversies with these listed shipowners. These controversies have involved conflicts of interest: self-dealing by private sponsors and management to the detriment of common shareholders. There have been cases of public owners buying ships from their private sponsors at prices that are – shall we say – advantageous to the related-party sponsors. There have been fees paid by the public companies to their own sponsors for technical and commercial management at levels that have unduly enriched those sponsors. There have been public company managements that have conducted highly dilutive equity sales, wiping out over 90% of their own share value to raise money to buy ships from their own private companies. And there have been insiders that have had attractive offers to buy the public company – offers that would have enriched the common shareholders – but offers that were blocked because it was not in the interest of the insiders. When it comes to corporate governance – the good, the bad and the ugly – there is one person who is considered the expert on this subject, equity analyst Michael Webber. He started his own firm, Webber Research, in 2019 and before that was the shipping analyst at Wells Fargo. Every year, Webber puts out a scorecard that ranks shipping companies based upon their corporate governance and ESG practices. It is very closely watched – and this year’s rankings have just been released. Webber joins Lloyd’s List senior reporter Greg Miller on this week’s episode to talk about the scorecard and what it tells us about shipping industry behaviour.

This episode of the Lloyd’s List Podcast was brought to you by Veson. Visit https://veson.com/decision-advantage for more information. Some shipowners warn that crew supply is only set to get worse due to a lack of young people wanting a career at sea. Others are concerned about the need to upskill existing crews to handle increasing digitalisation and multiple fuel types. This comes during a period of growth in the merchant vessel fleet due to a new shipbuilding cycle and limited vessel recycling. Most industry insiders agree that the talent shortage is already becoming a serious problem for the industry. Meanwhile, the switch to recruiting shipboard personnel chiefly from the Indian sub-continent and East Asia since the 1980s means there are fewer people able to fill numerous western shore-based roles requiring previous seafaring experience. As competition for crew has increased, more shipowners are taking action to increase the attractiveness of a seafaring career. These include improved crew accommodation, better internet connectivity and more flexible, or shorter working contracts. All of these can be effective ways to reduce attrition. So what more needs to be done to ensure a continued supply of skilled seafarers and attract young people to the industry to operate the global vessel fleet? Joining Rob Wilmington on this week’s episode are: Julia Anastasiou, chief crew management officer at OSM Thome Raal Harris, chief creative officer, Ocean Technologies

THERE is a hint of clickbait about this week’s title – we at Lloyd’s List are of course very passionate about diversity in shipping. But as the Women’s International Shipping & Trading Association celebrates its 50th birthday at its annual meeting in Cyprus – the question of why shipping still hasn’t achieved gender parity loomed large. Female representation in board rooms is a societal problem, but shipping is lagging behind even those modest numbers. The statistics are damning, wherever you get them from, but the accepted number is 15% of women occupy executive leadership roles and just 2% of seafarers are female. This episode is not to preach about the importance of diversity. Frankly that isn’t up for debate anymore. Instead, it will ask why our sector is so far behind others in this matter and identify some actual, tangible tasks that we can all do to make a difference today. Progress has undoubtedly been made, but it is slow and the going heavy. The exhaustion and frustration could be heard in many of the women’s voices at the conference, even if their words reflected continued optimism. So why is shipping failing, and what actions can be taken now to right course. Speaking on this week’s edition: WISTA International President Elpi Petraki IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez International Chamber of Shipping Secretary General Guy Platten

This episode of the Lloyd's List Podcast was brought to you by Veson. Visit https://veson.com/decision-advantage/ for more information. There is a very detailed series of policy discussions happening right now inside the walls of the International Maritime Organization. The question of whether the IMO can stick to its timetable and agree the basic architecture of shipping’s energy transition via a fuel standard and some kind of levy is of course important. It’s important in terms of demand signals to fuels producers, regulatory certainty for an industry in limbo, but it’s also going to determine whether we continue to have global regulation for shipping. If what the IMO agrees is not ambitious enough, shipping still faces the likely proliferation of national and regional bloc legislations to come. But what gets agreed inside the Marine Environment Protection Committee, is not the final step of shipping’s decarbonisation journey. It’s not even the starter. There’s a long list of practical and political factors for shipping to consider beyond an IMO discussion, and the industry needs to be preparing itself for a gruelling series of changes over several years. The bigger picture is that shipping is still not yet fully on the radar of the wider energy transition discussions like the Global African Hydrogen Summit that took place in Namibia last month. There are still a lot of dots to be joined between government, ports, fuel suppliers and shipping as one of many industries in the queue for green fuels. The industry is entering a phase that requires different approaches to its understanding of fuels supply and procurement and the coming regulation. The cliché “it’s a marathon not a sprint” is overused. But shipping is facing a decarbonisation ultra-marathon, and it needs to start training now.

Eric Christofferson is chief product officer at Veson Nautical, which is a provider of maritime data and freight management solutions to support global commerce. In this sponsored edition of the podcast, he comments on how data is reshaping how shipping contracts and compliance are managed.

This episode of the Lloyd’s List podcast is brought to you by Lloyd’s Register — visit www.lr.org/en for more information Law and insurance editor David Osler assembles a star-studded line-up at the International Union of Marine Insurance annual conference in Berlin to assess the strength of the market in 2024