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In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates.
Host Thomas Harr will discuss weekly market views, and deep dive into a selected theme together with his co-host of the week.
Host Thomas Harr will discuss weekly market views, and deep dive into a selected theme together with his co-host of the week.
91 Episodes
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China has seen a sharp rebound after the successful opening of its economy in spring last year. Now its economy is slowing as the effect of the stimulus is fading. In this podcast we discuss the nature of the slowdown and what it could mean for the rest of the global economy and the financial markets. We also discuss the shift in geopolitical risk between China and the US with the Biden administration in office.
Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst and China expert Allan Von Mehren
In today’s podcast, we zoom in on the biggest tail-risk to the global economy in our view: If vaccines turn out not to be as effective as expected in the face of new virus mutations, then it is likely restrictions will have to remain in place for much longer than ‘just’ this spring. In our view, the implications of this scenario could easily be a fall in global equity markets of 15-20%, as the global economy could face another ‘lost year’, even if governments and central banks try to step in and support economies again.
Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior US, UK and COVID-19 analyst Mikael Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.
In today’s podcast, we zoom in on Europe. In 2020, Europe lived up to its old mantra of never wasting a crisis, undertaking far-reaching measures not only on the ECB side but also with regard to national and EU level fiscal policies in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Now one year later, we take stock of the current state of play in Europe: We assess the impact of the second COVID-19 wave, new leadership in Germany’s biggest party CDU, a government crisis in Italy and looming discussions of economic policies on the other side of the crisis. We conclude that both the European Commission and the ECB will go very carefully on a potential exit and see yields in Europe trading in a tight range in 2021, even as we believe US yields should rise further from their current levels.
Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist on ECB and Fixed Income Research Piet Christiansen.
In today’s podcast, we discuss the implications of last week’s surprising Democratic Party victory in Georgia. Near term, we expect a bigger fiscal support package, a stronger US recovery in 2021 and the Fed’s current stance to be challenged, as well as a stronger US dollar later in the year, on the back of the Democratic Party victory. We also discuss why the attack on the US Congress and political uncertainty in general had little impact on financial markets.
Head of global macro research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior US analyst, Mikael Milhøj , and Senior FX Strategist, Lars Sparresø Merklin.
In today’s podcast, we discuss our 2021 outlook across macro, FX and equity markets. We expect the recovery to gain speed from Q2 and EUR/USD to head lower in 2021, while we believe higher US rates will not derail the equity rally. We also discuss why we believe Norges Bank will hike interest rates in 2021.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, Chief Strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
In today’s podcast, we discuss the current state of the Brexit negotiations, what will happen in the event of a deal or no deal and why negotiations may start again within the next year if there is no deal. We argue that there is a decent chance of a Brexit deal within the next week – hear why. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst and Brexit expert Mikael Olai Milhøj.
In today’s podcast, we outline our framework for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) credit risk in corporate bonds in light of the EU taxonomy. We discuss physical and transition risks in the pulp and paper, shipping and real estate sectors. We discuss the winner’s curse in shipping and how long-term physical risks in pulp and paper and real estate may turn into short-term risks.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of Credit Research in Sweden Louis Landeman, Senior Norwegian Credit Analyst Bendik Engebretsen and Senior Swedish Credit Analyst David Andrén
In today’s podcast, we discuss the prospects for new vaccines emerging and the risk of a US lockdown. We view the risk to the global economy as much more balanced now, with a possible upside twist, despite it being likely the US will need to impose tougher restrictions to contain its third wave.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren and Senior Analyst Mikael Olai Milhøj.
In today’s podcast we discuss what Biden’s win means for the USA’s relationship with China and what implications it has for economic policies. We discuss his transatlantic approach to China, the size of the COVID-19 package, and whether it will come before the end of the year. We also discuss the relief rally in equities and how much further it can go on from here.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by US economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, and equity strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.
In today’s podcast, we discuss the partial lockdowns in Europe and the US election. Europe is likely to contract in Q4 given the blow to certain service sectors but we believe that Europe’s downturn in Q4 will be much milder than that in Q2. If we have a divided US government, the COVID-19 stimulus package would be smaller. There is a significant risk that we will not know the next US president until a few days after the election, while it is very likely we will know the Senate election results on Wednesday morning CET. There is a risk of a contested result if the election is close but any election disputes have to be solved by 8 December.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by euro area economist Aila Mihr and US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj.
Today, we discuss why restrictions in Europe are likely to remain in place for many months but why the bar for broad lockdowns similar to those in the spring is high. We also discuss why fiscal and monetary policy are set to remain stimulative for a long time and how policymakers will have to factor inequality and crisis persistence into their reactions.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Economist Denmark Las Olsen.
Today, we discuss why we think the EU and UK are moving closer to each other in the negotiations, the difference between a deal and no-deal and the implications for financial markets. We also discuss the medium-term implications for the UK economy, whether the UK could become Europe’s Singapore and the implications of the US election.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst and UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj.
Today, we discuss the scenarios for the global economy and what they imply for equities. We argue that growth will slow and risks are skewed on the downside but a possible double-dip recession in 2021 could ease in the later part of the year due to new stimulus and support from China. The balance of risks is for equities to head higher.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of Macro and EM Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
Today, we discuss the US election and the implications for the economy and equities. We discuss the degree to which a united democratic government would lead to a demand boost and how this compares with a republican sweep. We discuss the implication of the election for the US’s approach to China and how we believe it will affect global equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomas.
Today, we discuss why we expect Norges Bank to lift the rate path this week, signalling a full rate hike by Q2 22. We argue why, from a risk-reward perspective, it makes sense to position for higher short-end and belly rates, while any NOK strength is likely to be short lived. We also discuss whether the Fed’s FAIT has implications for the Riksbank. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Chief Economist for Sweden Michael Grahn.
Today, we discuss what could drive much higher inflation rates over coming years. We discuss a fast recovery, the Fed’s change and its influence on the ECB, monetary financing of expansionary fiscal policies and a political shift to a progressive left in the US and Germany. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj, Euroland economist Aila Mihr and ECB economist and FI strategist Piet Christiansen.
Today, we discuss whether the volatility experienced in particularly equity markets late last week is set to continue. Positioning and retail involvement suggest that more is in store but the macro-drivers - vaccine developments and Fed action – for the reflation theme to continue are still very much in place. We discuss the rotation dynamics in equities and the primary market’s influence on the secondary outlook in credit.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen and Credit Strategist Mark Naur.
The phasing out of COVID-19 support measures is set to affect people and companies in the Nordic countries. We discuss whether the end of support schemes will lead to higher unemployment rates and bankruptcies in the region.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by Chief Economist Las Olsen and Head of Scandi Strategy Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
The reflation theme has dominated financial markets in recent months, driving stocks higher, depressing credit risk premiums and weakening the USD. However, over the past week inflation expectations dipped, the USD stabilised and nominal yields drifted lower. We discuss whether the reflation theme is now dead, or whether this is just a pause before the next acceleration. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior FX Strategist Lars Merklin and Credit Analyst Mark Naur.
The reflation theme is broadening, with higher yields and steeper curves. However, is the recent financial performance as good as it gets and how do future risks compare with current market pricing and thereby expected return? We argue that equities are not expensive and discuss the link between interest rates and equities. The vaccine and the Fed are set to drive risk premiums and returns across assets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
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