Mallen Baker: Faultlines

President Donald Trump came out this week as an agent of Putin's Russia, and adversary of Ukraine, and did so while demanding that Ukraine stop hitting Russian oil refineries. If it didn't, the US would likely withdraw all support. And it paused support for long enough to show what that would feel like. President Zelensky and Ukraine stared that possibility in the face - and went back to bombing refineries anyway. And he gave a frank interview where he plainly and simply spoke the truth about the current situation, causing panic in places you would least hope to see it. Let's discuss.

Having threatened dire consequences if Ukraine didn't agree to President Donald Trump's demand that they stop attacked Russian oil refineries, over the last couple of days we've seen signs that those threats have turned into some action - maybe just temporary, to demonstrate to the Ukrainians what they stand to lose - maybe the beginning of a permanent withdrawal. This development, following Trump's breathtaking diesel deal with President Putin, lays out the US / Russia alliance in the starkest possible detail. What will Ukraine and its allies do about it? Let's discuss.

The top military leader of NATO just openly explained the alliance's strategy for dealing with possible Russian incursions into the territory of a NATO member. It's a construct that has obviously been carefully put together - but maybe not solely as the best military strategy for dealing with Putin. More like, the most that could have the faintest chance of sticking given that squatting at the heart of the alliance is one President Donald Trump. Let's discuss.

Following his shock deal with Russia on diesel, President Donald Trump followed up by making it starkly clear that he is going to use that deal to try to force Ukraine to give up its most powerful weapon against Russia. Ostensibly, it's to lower world diesel prices (which it won't) and it serves the convenient purpose of seeking to deflect blame for high gas prices from Trump's war on Iran. But longer term, it all seems to be about forcing Ukraine to blunt it's attacks, or else give up the last vestiges of US support. Both choices leave Ukraine weaker than before - but just one will force the former allies of the US to make a stand. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 9th 2026. President Trump acts tough on Iran, but can't cover the fact that the US has been mostly running away from them in the last couple of weeks. The US finds itself similarly in retreat over the one-sided deals it tried to force African countries into in return for health aid. And the protests in France this week highlight the huge crisis that is coming for the entire developed world if it doesn't pay attention and bit the bullet earlier rather than later.