Investors keep calling AI a bubble and trying to pick the bottom in bonds. But what if they’re getting both trades wrong?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why stocks keep climbing despite rising bond yields—and why Jason still isn’t convinced the bond market has found its ultimate low.Matt also explores an emerging part of the AI trade: healthcare companies applying the technology to cancer testing, heart scans, and genetic analysis. While the debate stays focused on Nvidia, could the next wave of opportunities already be developing elsewhere?Inside this episode:• Why “oversold” doesn’t mean bonds are ready to bounce• The Russell 2000’s changing reaction to higher yields• Why Matt and Jason challenge the AI bubble narrative• AI’s expansion beyond chips and into healthcare• The danger of being right about a bubble—and too early to survive the trade• Why confirmation bias can put you on the wrong side of a major trendAre you following what the market is doing—or waiting for it to agree with you?Subscribe for more Markets Unscripted with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.Connect with the hosts:Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights: https://www.carusoinsights.comJason Shapiro — Crowded Market Report: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com#StockMarket #AIStocks #BondMarket #MarketsUnscripted
Matt is long leading AI stocks. Jason is short the Dow. Both trades are working. How can that happen in the same market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine the divide between a small group of strong stocks and weakness across much of the broader market. They discuss rising bond yields, stubborn oil prices, and why Jason is growing wary of the widespread claim that stocks are “resilient.”Matt looks back at the late 1990s, when weak market breadth appeared well before the technology rally ended. He also shares what he is watching in AI-related stocks. Jason explains why he remains short the Dow and what he would need to see before considering a long trade in the Russell 2000.They may hold opposite positions, but both return to the same lesson: follow your process, manage risk, and let the market confirm your view.Learn more about Matt: https://www.carusoinsights.com/Learn more about Jason: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/Subscribe to Markets Unscripted for more conversations with Matt and Jason. What are you seeing right now: strength that can spread, or a rally getting too narrow?00:00 A resilient market with weakness underneath00:58 Bonds, yields, and the stock market disconnect01:50 Why the resilience consensus worries Jason08:52 The trap of repeatedly buying the bond dip12:41 The Russell 2000 signal Jason is watching14:29 Is the whole market resilient—or just AI?15:50 What the late 1990s can teach us25:03 Why weak breadth isn’t a timing signal27:10 Long leading stocks, short the Dow33:33 The danger of trusting one indicator38:11 Conflicting signals and knowing when to wait40:26 Missing big trends: Tesla, Apple, and investor bias45:05 Risk management and letting the market confirm47:11 What Matt and Jason are watching next
Join Matt’s FREE live AMA tomorrow, Tuesday! Bring your stock and trading questions. Register here:https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1917900177069/WN_jeYuoQGdTxGh-N4_4Hbfaw Can’t attend live? Register to receive the recording.Connect with the hosts:• Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights• Jason Shapiro — Crowded Market ReportThe bears got the headlines they wanted. Stocks rallied anyway.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down a market that keeps absorbing bad news—and explain why the reaction can tell you more than the headline itself.Matt highlights strength across AI hardware, cybersecurity, software, and healthcare, while Jason explains why crowded positioning alone isn’t enough to make a contrarian trade. They also debate whether bonds need to recover for stocks to keep climbing, challenge the AI bubble narrative, and discuss the evidence they want before increasing exposure.Plus: why following the tape means being willing to change your mind, why a bullish outlook doesn’t justify going all in, and how to build a trading process you can stick with through months of frustrating price action.In this episode:• The bond market debate: positioning, sentiment, and confirmation• What the semiconductor rebound says about bad-news failure• AI leadership beyond hardware• Bearish sentiment near market highs• Matt’s up/down volume and high-yield bond indicators• Position sizing, risk management, and staying flexible• Building a trading process that fits your lifeSubscribe to Markets Unscripted for weekly conversations with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.00:00 Stocks rally as bad news fails to break the market01:59 Jason’s bond warning: crowded positioning isn’t enough04:32 The three ingredients of a contrarian trade06:04 Semiconductors rebound after the AI scare07:39 Matt’s approach to finding relative strength09:23 Do higher interest rates threaten the AI trade?11:14 AI funding, regulation, and the IPO narrative14:07 Why Jason challenges the AI bubble comparison17:49 AI leadership expands beyond hardware21:49 How traders think about participating in bubbles24:02 Bearish sentiment near market highs25:31 Matt’s indicators: volume and high-yield bonds29:00 Why this breakout may look different from April’s rally32:00 Following the tape without going all in36:02 Compounding, drawdowns, and thinking beyond one trade39:18 Lessons from trading through uncertainty40:29 Predictions, confirmation bias, and financial media42:47 Accepting uncertainty and managing risk44:25 Building a process that fits your life45:54 Closing thoughts
Oil is above $100. The 10-year yield has touched 5%. Rate hikes are being priced in, and new concerns are building around the future of AI.On paper, it looks like the perfect environment for stocks to break down—but the market continues to hold near its highs.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what the market’s resilience may be telling investors. They discuss whether a Fed rate hike could unexpectedly become a bullish catalyst, why trading the headlines can be so dangerous, and what the market’s reaction to bad news reveals beneath the surface.They also explore the motives behind calls to slow AI development, the enormous capital still flowing into the industry, and why returning to the market with leveraged call options could be a classic case of revenge trading.In this episode:Why the market refuses to break despite mounting risksWhether a rate hike could actually help stocks and bondsWhat oil above $100 and the 10-year yield at 5% meanWhy the reaction to news matters more than the headlineThe contradiction inside the latest AI warningsThe hidden risks of leverage and optionsWhy discipline and process ultimately separate successful tradersFollow Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comFollow Jason Shapiro and Crowded Market Report:https://crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
The market has spent months stuck in neutral—but beneath the surface, something may be changing.Bond yields remain one of the biggest pressures facing stocks, particularly the AI companies spending heavily to build out infrastructure. Yet several former market leaders are beginning to show strength again, even while the major indexes remain below their recent highs.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what could finally move the market out of its sideways range—and why the reaction to the next inflation report may matter far more than the number itself.They discuss:• The signal that would show stocks are beginning to look beyond inflation• Why a market that refuses to fall on bad news deserves attention• Renewed strength across AI, semiconductor, power and infrastructure stocks• How to separate a temporary squeeze from the start of a sustainable move• Why betting on the end of the financial system has historically been a losing strategy• Crowded positioning in bonds, wheat, corn, cotton and other agricultural markets• What weakness in defense stocks may already be signaling• Why patience is essential when markets are trapped in a sideways environmentThe goal is not to predict CPI, interest rates or the Federal Reserve’s next decision. It is to watch how the market responds—and wait for the evidence before increasing risk.Learn more from Matt Caruso:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.