Mexico Matters

<p>The Mexico Matters podcast series highlights key developments in Mexico and their impact on the United States.</p>

Breaking All the Rules

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Juan Carlos Baker, former USMCA negotiator and Director General for North America at the Ministry of the Economy, about the impact tariffs have had on Mexico and how they have served President’s Trump goal of curbing the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. They also discuss why 83% of Mexican exports are currently being exempted from tariffs, the consequences of the U.S. signing agreements with Japan, Europe, South Korea before its largest trading partner, and the unintended (or intended) consequences for North American automobile manufacturers who are still subject to 25% tariffs. They also offer a factual description behind Chinese exports and investments in Mexico and on how Mexico has been in breach of USMCA.

08-04
44:27

Benefiting Cartels by Law

In this episode, Mariana speaks with former Supreme Court Minister, Jose Ramon Cosío about the implications of the judicial constitutional reform pushed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and passed by Mexico’s Congress. The reform effectively kills the independence of all local, state, and federal judges as they now must go through elections like any other local, state, or federal politician. Under the new laws, approximately 2,000 judges have been fired and are being replaced by those recently elected out of a pool of approximately 7,700 candidates. Mariana and Jose also discuss the likelihood of the new laws benefiting organized crime organizations, foreign governments, or specific interest groups—or any other group with enough resources to support specific candidates. They speak about how these new laws are also a reversal to the rule of law and how the lack of certainty will hurt Mexico’s attractiveness as an investment destination, both national and international.

07-07
27:02

More Carrots and Less Sticks

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Dr. Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at CSIS, about China’s increased presence in Latin America, transforming itself from a distant economic partner into a central player in Latin America’s trade, infrastructure, and key strategic technology sectors.  They also discuss how the new Trump Administration appears to be abandoning a policy of strategic neglect and is turning its attention towards the region. In addition, they discuss how Latin American countries don’t want to pick between the two biggest world economies and how the US can solve this dilemma by offering private-public partnerships in key strategic sectors.   Lastly, they analyze how various Latin countries are following the US in raising tariffs to protect their own industries from Chinese overcapacity, and why Mexico must live up to its commitment and start tracking Chinese investment in the country, particularly in sensitive areas to maintain the trust of the Trump Administration.

05-15
35:55

What Mexico Has to Offer

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alan Bersin, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California and US Border Czar under President Obama and Luis Rubio, a leading Mexican political analyst, Chairman of the think tank Mexico Evalua. They discuss the impact of President Trump’s migration policies at the border and on the Mexican side, analyze the potential benefits of designating Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, and discuss the need to increase security cooperation between the two countries. They also speak about the importance for the Mexican government to take a proactive approach in the issues of migration, security, and trade when negotiating with the United States and break down the many challenges that the Sheinbaum Administration is facing—externally and internally—to create the conditions for the country to grow.

05-09
45:05

Brazil’s Protectionist Model Should Be No Guide for the US

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Pedro Pullen Parente, a remarkable Brazilian public servant and businessmen.  Pedro was previously Minister of Planning, Chief of Staff, Minister of Mines and Energy under President Cardoso. He was also the CEO of Petrobras, ran Bunge Brazil, and was the CEO of BRF, one of the world’s largest food companies   Mariana and Pedro speak about the pros and cons of Brazil’s protectionist economic model. The model might serve as a vision for President Trump as high tariffs, local content requirements, and many other non-market barriers have allowed Brazil to protect its manufacturing sector and jobs while also lowering competitiveness and protecting vested interests.     They also discuss how choosing between the United States and China may not be beneficial to countries like Brazil as well as the likelihood that Brazil might benefit from the current trade war as increased food productivity in the country will allow it to increase supply. However, they emphasize how the only way for Brazil to reach its potential is to focus on removing its own internal barriers to competition and free markets, not the other way around.

04-23
29:10

Everything is Relative—including Tariffs

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Luis de la Calle, renowned economist, former NAFTA negotiator and the CEO of CMM Asociados. They discuss the future of globalization, the current perceptions on trade, the potential consequences for North America—and the world—of imposing tariffs, and what can Mexico do to help more Mexican producers comply with USMCA. They also discuss the recent popularity surge of Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and what she needs to do to put her country (not her party) first.

03-14
35:10

Are Tariffs THE Right Weapon?

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Kevin Brady, former U.S. Rep. (R-TX) and Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and Kenneth Smith Ramos, former USMCA Chief negotiator for Mexico, about the shift in Washington away from free trade, President Trump’s use of tariffs as leverage to solve the fentanyl and border security crises, and the potential consequences of starting a trade war within North America by imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. They also speak about the importance for Mexico to satisfy the US’s security demands and to comply with its own energy and other trade commitments in order to allow for a more successful 2026 review of USMCA. Finally, they discuss the importance for collaboration between the United States and Mexico to reduce the power of organized crime and address China’s growing presence in the region.

02-11
46:28

America and the World under Trump 2.0

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Dr. Hamre, President and CEO of CSIS and Seth Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS. They discuss the role America has had historically in the world and why it might be entering a new epoch of parochialism. They also speak about the world that President Trump has inherited and how its competition with China is playing out in Latin America and elsewhere. They analyze the importance for America to protect and strengthen its borders, the advantages and disadvantages of sending troops to the southern border, and designating cartels as terrorist organizations. Finally, they speak about the importance of increasing security and economic cooperation with Mexico.

01-27
49:32

Trump is Not The Enemy, Narcos Is

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. She is the director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors. She is also the co-director of the Brookings series on opioids: “The Opioid Crisis in America: Domestic and International Dimensions.  They discuss the unprecedented epidemic caused by the synthetic drug revolution and the role that Mexican cartels have played in driving this crisis, bankrolled by Chinese money laundering organizations. They also discuss what concrete actions the Mexican government should take to reduce the flow of narcotics and migrants across the border, and dive into how the Mexican cartels, aided by misguided policies, corruption, and weak judicial institutions, now control large swaths of Mexico’s territory. Finally, they speak about the importance of U.S. and Mexican cooperation to regain the Mexican territory from organized crime.

12-09
35:57

Trump vs Harris: Who is best for what?

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alan Stoga, Chairman of the Tallberg Foundation and Host of the New Thinking for a New World podcast, about the importance of the U.S. elections, the state of U.S. politics and about the difference in trade, migration and economic policies of the two candidates. They also discuss the impact of the different policies could have in Mexico and the space Mexico’s new President, Claudia Sheinbaum, will have to navigate under each of the two candidates.

11-04
46:38

Wait and See

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Carlos Peyrelongue, head of Mexico Equity Research for Bank of America, about the state of the country that President Claudia Sheinbaum has inherited from her predecessor, about the parting gift he left—a judicial reform that weakens certainty and the rule of law, and about how the markets will read certain markers to determine whether or not she will rule based on data or ideology. They also discuss the measures she will need to take in order to create the necessary conditions to attract investments to grow, to fund the country’s infrastructure needs, as well as the government’s growing spending commitments. And, about the most likely scenarios for U.S.-Mexico relations in light of the upcoming USMCA renegotiation.

10-14
41:22

Picking Winners and Losers

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alejandra Palacios, former head of Mexico’s antitrust agency, COFECE, and Andrea Durkin, VP for international policy at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), about the controversial constitutional judicial reform passed by Mexico's Congress, which makes Mexico the only country in the world where the entire judicial branch, including the Supreme Court, stands for election. They also discuss the government’s proposal to incorporate various regulatory agencies into the federal government, a move that could undermine their independence and increase presidential power, enabling the removal of competition and the selection of winners and losers. They emphasize the importance of how the new President, Claudia Sheinbaum, will write and implement the secondary laws and regulations, as these could—if done correctly—add the necessary certainty for investors and even allow Mexico to meet its international trade commitments.

10-02
44:25

Keep those Plates Spinning in the Air

On this episode, Mariana speaks with General David Petraeus, former CIA Director, Retired Army General, Partner of KKR and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute, about the major and minor challenges occurring around the world that require the attention of the United States while, at the same time, the US needs to focus on strengthening its own competitive profile to compete against China. They also discuss how some of these global trends (nearshoring and frienshoring) have the potential to benefit Mexico if—and only if—Mexico works to create the necessary conditions to attract investment. This will include curbing the power of the criminal empires who control one-third of the territory and are damaging the attractiveness of Mexico and impacting the security of North America.

08-15
40:17

Impartiality, If You Can Keep It

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Kenneth Smith Ramos, former Chief Negotiator of USMCA from the Mexican side and partner of AGON, about how the Constitutional Reforms proposed by President Lopez Obrador might weaken Mexico’s judiciary and in doing so, impact the key principles of USMCA and other trade agreements such as impartiality, transparency, and nondiscriminatory practices. They also discuss measures North America could take to defend itself against predatory practices and the facts behind recent Chinese investments in Mexico. And, they speak about the upcoming 2026 mandatory review of USMCA and the negative implications of opening a full renegotiation.

07-24
45:12

It's More Than Grit: Moving the Economic Needle

In this crossover with It's More Than Grit: The Making of an Entrepreneur, a new podcast from CSIS, Linda Rottenberg, Co-founder and CEO of Endeavor, joins Mariana Campero and co-host Andrew Schwartz for a discussion on Linda’s journey to Endeavor. She highlights the qualities of a good entrepreneur and the regions she is most optimistic about. As a leader of the global entrepreneurship movement, Linda also shares advice for aspiring entrepreneurs. Linda Rottenberg is one of the world’s premier voices on global entrepreneurship, technology, and business transformation. As Co-founder and CEO of Endeavor, Linda helms the leading global community of, by, and for entrepreneurs. Endeavor selects, supports, and invests in founders across 40 countries. Linda also serves as President of Endeavor Catalyst, the rules-based investment arm of Endeavor, with $500M in AUM. Subscribe to It's More Than Grit: The Making of an Entrepreneur Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2DiwZ8p2MwP7yNQ3l6fx0P Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/its-more-than-grit/id1742055565 Pandora: https://www.pandora.com/podcast/its-more-than-grit/PC:1001087050 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnArnDQHeUqfblHccyubresfY7xwH2lzr

06-24
33:20

Power is the Greatest Aphrodisiac

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Carlos Elizondo Mayer-Serra, a political science expert from Monterrey Tec, about Claudia Sheinbaum’s landslide victory in the Mexican elections and explains why the financial markets negatively reacted to such a victory. They also discuss the Constitutional changes that President Lopez Obrador and his Morena party might try to pass now that they have the necessary votes, and the potential impact of those reforms on Claudia’s presidency. They stress the various dilemmas Claudia will face while squaring the circle of achieving greater economic growth vs. greater power concentration.

06-12
44:07

Mexico Imposes Tariffs on China

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Juan Carlos Baker, former USMCA negotiator on the Mexican side and CEO of Ansley International Consultants, about the facts behind the recent Chinese investment announcements in Mexico, about what prompted Mexico to increase tariffs on more than 500 Chinese goods, and what Mexico, the U.S. and Canada should be doing now to prepare for the upcoming 2026 review of USMCA.

05-16
43:30

To Be More or Not to Be North American: That is the Question

In this episode, Mariana is joined by Luis de la Calle, an international economist, former NAFTA negotiator and CEO of CMM; and Martin Castellanos, head of Latam research at the IIF. They discuss the potential economic and policy implications of the June 2nd presidential elections and describe the optimism vis-a-vis Mexico among the investor community. They dive into the economic realities that exist today to determine whether that optimism is justified or not. They also discuss future risks and analyze the various policy consequences of the upcoming elections. They describe two potential scenarios: a victory by Claudia Sheinbaum with and without the necessary majority in Congress to change the Constitution. They also discuss the tailwinds that the nearshoring wave could bring for Mexico, and the country's shortcomings that limit it from taking full advantage of the opportunity. And finally, the implications for Mexico if it allowed China to use it as a back door to the United States.

04-18
37:06

Americans Are Migrating to Mexico Too

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Tamanna and Travis Bembenek, owners of the Mexico News Daily about the other side of the migration coin: the millions of Americans (and other nationalities) migrating to Mexico to live, work, or start a business and the impact they are having in the local communities. They discuss the challenges and opportunities of starting a new business in Mexico, the importance for the Mexican government to expedite work visas to allow for the technology ecosystem to grow, and the challenges/opportunities they see as business owners. They also talk about how journalism is a dangerous business in Mexico and how they avoid falling into dangerous territory.

03-25
28:26

Shut Which Border?

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Andrew Selee, President of the Migration Policy Institute and Carlos Heredia Associate Professor at CIDE about the facts and the politics in both the U.S. and Mexico behind the surge in immigration flows. They dive deep into the facts to understand what is attracting so many people—not only from Mexico or Central America but also from China, India, Africa, and the Middle East—to risk their lives (and a lot of money) to cross the border illegally. They also speak about the impact that immigration is having on the Mexican side of the border, they discuss what the current bipartisan Senate immigration bill would achieve, if it ever became law, and how to improve the current asylum system which is being abused. They analyze what the United States could do to improve border security, how governments are using migrants for political gain, and how President Lopez Obrador from Mexico is gaming the system.

02-14
46:22

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