Mi3 Audio Edition

For anyone in ecom or performance marketing, this podcast is a must listen. Forget ROI and ROAS, think unit economics, says former investment banker (her last big deal was the Myer float) turned entrepreneur Carla Penn-Kahn. She was early into ecom and left Credit Suisse to launch four of her own –Kitchenware Australia, A Gift Worth Giving, Everten and Buy My Thing. But she sold her last venture last year when she realised it had hit peak profitability. With performance ad prices doubling in four years, and Amazon reaching full speed, the unit economics weren’t going to get any better. Penn-Kahn thinks direct-to-consumer trailblazers have likewise lost their mojo – and their moats – and face the same dilemma, because they can no longer sustainably scale through advertising and VCs are sharpening their bottom line focus as much as the top. Meanwhile, Amazon has just signed an exclusive deal with Australia Post to deliver on weekends. “I can’t see other brands like Myer and DJs getting Aus Post to do the same for them … which 100 per cent gives Amazon an edge in this market over Australian businesses.” Hence she’s cool on the outlook for many, but particularly the likes of The Iconic, Temple and Webster, Adore Beauty and Australian marketplaces like Woolworths-owned Catch, which last week put a $96m dent in Wesfarmers’ balance sheet. Loyalty programs and retail media offers a lifeline for some, per Penn-Kahn, but most DTC brands don’t have the latter option. But Amazon might not have it all it’s own way. She suggests Microsoft might be gearing up to buy Shopify (which in Australia lays claim to controlling 25 per cent of all ecom transactions). If it happens “they will own the space”, suggests Penn-Kahn. “You will be advertising on Bing through the Shopify network as an ecom brand and leveraging Microsoft's AI to build your website, build the content. It could be a full ecosystem roll up if it happens. It's very possible.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The effectiveness “revolution” is colliding with the AI-spawned efficiency uprising and it’s leaping the early consensus AI use cases in marketing around automating personalised content and communications. So much so Mark Ritson choked on his Wellfleet oysters when Jon Lombardo and Peter Weinberg told him they were leaving top jobs at the LinkedIn-backed thinktank, the B2B Institute. Then they told him why. Ritson promptly joined their venture, along with what Weinberg calls “the advisory board to end all advisory boards”.  Thus the synthetically-enhanced AI marketing outfit Evidenza was born. The founders argue their new piece of “synthetic customer” tech, which starts with creating AI copies of target customers, can create an annual marketing strategy, category entry points, messaging and positioning at a fraction of the cost of traditional market research and in a fraction of the time it takes for a marketing team to do the same. They claim it completes major research projects in minutes – and have proven their digitally synthetic customers match real customer responses it took some of the world’s biggest brands long cycles to gather. “It can imitate essentially anyone by gathering and synthesizing massive amounts of data,” per Weinberg, including almost impossible-to-reach professionals, like airline chiefs, or the bosses of mining companies. Which is exactly what Evidenza did in a head-to-head test with EY Americas CMO Toni Clayton-Hine’s actual survey data – and “reached 95 per cent of the same conclusions,” per Weinberg. EY “has been a fantastic client ever since.” But as well as synthesizing customers, the system also synthesizes marketing strategy and science: Imagine on one side a synthetic combination of Mark Ritson, Professor Byron Sharp teamed with ad effectiveness maestros Peter Field and Les Binet. Then on the other side, hundreds of synthetic CEOs, CFOs, CTOs, CIOs, CMOs and each of those functions linked to the nuances of different industries and categories. Put them all into an AI blender, and you get what Lombardo and Weinberg think is an efficiency revolution in marketing fused with the effectiveness revolution from the marketing academics. The upshot for marketers? “A finance-friendly marketing plan that used to take months now takes maybe minutes, but more likely, a day,” per Weinberg. According to Lombardo that’s good news even for traditional market researchers. “Everyone is going to get better. Average is over.” So what’s left for the humans? The synthetic duo say the smart stuff - experience, strategic frameworks and brand and category nuance, for instance - that makes the machines do better. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marketing mix modelling (MMM) only works if brands grant their agencies access to critical business data – and many don’t in a perplexing and decades-long challenge. But equally, agencies can be guilty of slowing media pricing and audience data into their client MMM models, rounding out the two-way data conundrum. It’s ironic given all the talk of partnerships and outcome-based incentives, per Mutinex APAC CEO, Mat Baxter. Bupa and Atomic 212°, says Baxter, are standout examples of genuine client-agency transparency – and it’s powering not just “marginal gain theory” in which lots of small, incremental components are optimised to drive growth, but hard, 28 per cent ROI gains in specific incidences. Bupa plugged into the platform in 2022 and performance lead Angas Hill says without a free flow of business data to Atomic 212° – sales, revenue, pricing and competitiveness data included - “there's not much point in standing up an MMM model.” Bupa does and now the CFO sees the MMM outputs as “the most trusted source we have in terms of attribution and forecasting”. Bupa uses those monthly ROI insights to shape the quarterly media plan – with Atomic 212° already plugged-in across what’s working and what’s not at a business level. “It’s just speeding up that whole process,” says Hill. “We are seeing long-term growth in our effectiveness for what is essentially flat media budgets.” Plus, he says, on-off testing via MMM, e.g. testing one region and channel against another, “is where we are seeing much more drastic changes.” Atomic 212°’s Tom Sheppard underlines broader benefits from using MMM outputs to inform trading strategy: “If we understand what the ROI is, we can negotiate. If [as a result] we can decrease that cost base of certain channels, all of a sudden we can automatically improve the return that the client is getting,” per Sheppard. “The MMM is fantastic at telling us what's worked in the past and to give us the next best decision,” he adds. Now he says Atomic 212° and Bupa are adding new inputs and channels “to get even better signals – so as a result, everyone wins.” Next step is making automatic media transaction feeds via API the norm, per Baxter. “That is the future of where we are going.”  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Part Two: After last week's instalment with S4 Capital's founder and former WPP boss, Sir Martin Sorrell – in which he explained why the market cap of his next generation marketing services firm had plummeted from £5 billion to £300 million in the past three years – he's back for part two. We cover the consolidation of the $700 billion global digital ad market down to a handful of global tech media players. Is that dangerous for brands and the broader marketing supply chain? Maybe, but Sir Martin thinks they're only going to get bigger. Plus, we go deeper into AI and mass personalisation – Netflix style – along with the dodgy, inaccurate, but thriving online user data trade that was revealed a month or so ago by UM's former chief privacy officer, Arielle Garcia (which is now Mi3’s top podcast and story so far this year). For the record, Sorrell agrees with Garcia: “Garbage in, garbage out ... There are some murky parts of the market, but that's our role to expose that, not to be a part of it.” Either way, he thinks the platforms will only get closer to marketers at the expense of intermediaries – and there is little agencies can do to stop it. Plus, he says OpenAI chief Sam Altman, who reckons AI will displace 95 per cent of advertising jobs, is “directionally right”. The timeframe? “Three years,” per Sorrell. “It’s going to be uncomfortable.” Conversely, Sorrell says the big platforms won’t be shrinking any time soon. On a GDP basis, “these are countries, they are not companies anymore.” He thinks that means regulation, unless co-ordinated globally, is ultimately powerless.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Most attribution analysis by digital marketing and analytics teams is too narrow to base marketing investment decisions on – and it’s leading to a chronic over-investment in paid search and under-investment in digital video according to Analytic Partners. The firm conducted a major study to unravel the gaps between digital attribution reporting for brands and market mix modelling – and there's a big difference between the two. Analytic Partners MD, Paul Sinkinson said on average, 59 per cent of the data is missing, and it can be “as high as 80 per cent”, yet attribution models mask this, because they pick up “the clicky stuff”, i.e. last click – but miss swathes of what’s happening in between, particularly within-app activity. Privacy changes and iOS-driven signal loss mean the gaps are getting bigger, making it much harder to run even a half-decent attribution model, which “is driving you to allocate activity to the wrong channels, purely because of how much data is missing,” says Sinkinson. “And it's the unequalness of those losses that then made us really concerned.” Social, the study found, is massively under-represented in those attribution models, which try to cram everything into a seven or 30-day window, favouring short-term hits above all else. Per Sinkinson: “Display – 364 per cent overvalued in an attribution model. Search – 336 per cent overvalued in an attribution model. Social – 44 per cent under measured in terms of the ROI and an attribution model. Video – 30 per cent underrepresented from an ROI perspective. So that means that we're starting to put our money into the wrong channels.” The upshot – which applies globally – is that “35 cents is wasted from every dollar invested, because you’re allocating on siloed metrics.” Those findings landed with Meta, which commissioned Analytic Partners to produce a white paper on the key research findings – and the platform’s ANZ marketing science lead, Carl McLean, says there are “very real implications” for marketing spend, especially in a soft market. How big is the problem? “It’s widespread,” per McLean. “A lot of the time it’s because there is a sense that there isn’t a better alternative.” There is – it just requires a bit more work. But the rewards are massive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Part One: It's been three years since Sir Martin Sorrell was last on the Mi3 podcast - he declared then a mea culpa of sorts that he didn't - and couldn't - transform WPP, the giant marketing services holding company he founded in the 1970s, fast enough because it was listed. At the time (2021), Sir Martin’s next generation digital holding company, S4Capital, was firing with a market cap of circa £5 billion (AUD $9.6bn), just three years after a street fight with WPP’s board saw him exit and start the new business. He was bleak on the future of his old British firm at the time along with WPP’s French and US-based global holding company rivals. But since then, S4Capital’s market cap has plunged more than 90 per cent to £300 million (AUD $582m) as the tech sector, representing upwards of 45 per cent of S4’s revenues, slashed their own marketing budgets globally. But there’s more to it – the basics actually, like pricing S4Capital’s business services appropriately to clients. Sir Martin almost acknowledges some rookie errors at S4 in managing the business, which operates as .Monks today globally in-market across technology and content. Aside from his typically robust macro views, Sir Martin also appears to have developed a new and begrudging respect in building S4Capital for businesses that can break down business silos - and lashings of enthusiasm to hire people “who are sharers”, he says. “If ever I was to write a book, which I will never do, about our business, clients and agencies, I would say the biggest impediment is the political structure, or the structure of the companies - they are organised basically into silos,” he told Mi3 last week during a visit to Australia. “Good people tend to put their arms around things. There are exceptional people who are good, who are sharers. Those are the jewels…find good people who are good by definition, but also who share, and we do have them inside our company, but to be frank there are not as many as there should be.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Six weeks ago Mel Hopkins was rolled out of Seven amid a clinical round of cuts that added further fuel to the narrative that TV is in trouble as audiences bleed and revenue follows suit. But Hopkins, who as Optus CMO dumped the lion’s share of her media budget into Meta and Google, remains convinced TV is undervalued and undersold, says BVOD metrics and reporting are as good as anything the platforms can provide, and that the global streamers are likewise racing to “manage out cost”. Revenue challenges should therefore not be conflated with audiences, which Hopkins and Nine CMO Liana Dubois insist remain healthy – Dubois said TV reached 24.2m Australians last month. While media buyers last year said 2022 had marked “the biggest audience decline in the history of TV” and correctly forecast a 10 per cent revenue hit for linear TV as a result, Dubois said industry needs to get its terminology straight – literally – because TV delivered over the internet can still be linear TV. However it is delivered and consumed, “television today is reaching the same amount of people that it did 10 years ago,” per Dubois – and those numbers “are holding”. She warns marketers pulling out of TV for digital platforms and their dashboards are “dangerously” risking marketing effectiveness and should instead look beyond the shallow metrics – and narrative – they are being fed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

$18 trillion’s worth of B2B transactions take place annually. But “40-60 per cent of deals get stalled”, says B2B Institute founder Jann Martin Schwarz, because B2B marketers are focusing on the wrong things and the wrong people. They are missing the “hidden buyers” that don’t show up in individual-focused lead gen and those buyers – procurement, finance, legals, IT security, the c-suite – don’t care about features. They just care about managing risk. They make group decisions (earlier than B2B marketers realise) based on compromise and the “least worst” option. On average, they represent half of decision-making heft, and they get to veto who gets the contract. That’s one of the key insights from a major global study conducted with Bain across 500-plus enterprise B2B buyers. Across the study, “at every stage, familiarity and trust in a brand or vendor's reputation was the casting vote,” says B2B Institute EMEA and LatAm marketing lead Mimi Turner. Which means brand influences hidden buyers disproportionately, because it’s effectively “deal risk insurance”, per Schwarz. The study effectively quantifies why nobody ever got fired for buying IBM and underlines why B2B’s brand and performance teams need to align much more closely to hone brand messaging to hit hidden buyers – and stop focusing on leads and individuals. They argue the findings all but obliterate the model on which B2B marketing is founded – and requires a wholesale rethink of lead gen, measurement and strategy. Changing models means graft and pain, especially for the “rank and file KPI’d on reductionist metrics” acknowledges Schwarz. But if adopted, even moving the needle by 1 per cent will unlock $180bn of annual B2B deal-making upside – and early movers will get the biggest hit. Schwarz is willing to “stake my reputation” on brands that flip their models to reach hidden buyers will see “an immediate spike in activity” and “close deals faster”. A prospect, he says, no CEO or CFO will ever decline.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, Interbrand and Westfield [now Scentre Group] marketer John Batistich transitioned to company board roles ahead of most – he’s now a non-executive director (NED) and advisor to seven boards, including the listed buy now pay later firm Zip Co, Muffin Break Bakeries and Jamaica Blue Cafes’ parent company FoodCo, Melbourne unicorn Moose Toys and Sydney-founded fashion label Ksubi International. Batistich has a helicopter view of what boards want from marketing functions, where the gaps remain – and crucially, what marketing can do to close them. In short, “become the expert on customer” because marketing is still seen as a cost centre; focus on “brilliant basics”, build better partnerships, and start working on capability models, because marketing’s capability gap is widening and Batistich sees major skills deficiencies – especially around personalisation for lifetime value. The range of his advisory roles also gives Batistich a broader economic worldview than most. He sees a cocktail of uncertainty facing brands over the next months – some of the firms he works with are already re-engineering supply chains in the likely event of a Trump victory and incoming tariffs. But he sees opportunity for some: Cosmetics, pharmacy and beauty are powering and are likely to be those investing harder in FY25. Marketplaces, department stores and fashion are feeling sustained pressure from more efficient, demand-led global platforms like Temu and Shein plus the pullback of financially-crunched younger generations that used to be marketing’s Holy Grail – but now appear less prized than wealthy retirees. Batistich also warns on AI – “both a significant threat to humanity, but also a huge productivity opportunity”. He’s the board member of a firm harnessing conversational design AI for the latter. Either way, it’s another rapidly developing field now crossing deep into marketer-customer remits – and boards are clamouring for intel. Amid all the short-term pressure, Batistich urges marketers to think longer–term. “Unlike the US election, ageism is alive and well in marketing,” he says. “You do need to have a plan, because that reality is going to hit you in the face on an idle Tuesday in your early 50s, when the organisation is seeking a succession plan or change.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A deep, senior marketer study and report by Mi3, The Australian Marketing Institute (AMI), Qualtrics and Tumbleturn finds hard evidence across 105 top marketers responsible for $3bn-plus of budgets of an emergent three-speed marketing economy and upended KPIs and priorities. There are big question marks in key sectors such as retail around the effectiveness of personalisation efforts: Just 15 per cent think their CX is performing, though telcos are confident they’re smashing it. There’s also a major swing to performance media as CMOs seek instant results. The good news is that after decades of being perceived as the colouring-in department, 83 per cent of marketers say that has now shifted, with boards and CEOs perceiving marketing as a critical growth driver – though B2B marketers are far less certain. Problem is, marketer remits are exploding and the FY 25 Marketing & Customer Benchmarks report, polling top marketers across all B2C and B2B sectors, finds the majority feeling ill-equipped to tackle what’s rapidly coming at them. Plus they now have heightened responsibility for customer – with customer lifetime value or CLV eclipsing all other KPIs across the sample as a future indicator – thrust upon them. But CMOs, customer chiefs and marketing directors across the piste are trying to offload duties to free-up bandwidth. Getting lead agencies to manage the partner roster – with an average of 10 agencies per brand across the survey – alongside consolidation is a rising trend, as is hybrid in-housing. Large brands meanwhile forecast project work will eclipse retainer arrangements, with even small brands suggesting it will be at least half of their requirements. Then there’s the question of AI and just how marketers are using it. Content creation and productivity – which comes with positive and negative connotations for headcount – top the pile. AMI’s Bronwyn Heys, Tumbleturn’s Jen Davidson, Qualtrics’ Ivana Sekanic and Akcelo’s Aden Hepburn unpack the findings and implications for marketers, agencies and the broader supply chain heading into FY25 and beyond. Download the report – here – to accompany the nuanced expert view.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

RyanCap CEO Simon Ryan says 50 per cent of clients are “shifting a lot more money into search, digital and online video” as they scramble for immediate results and short-term sales going into FY25. Stubbornly high interest rates and crunched consumers mean major brand spending is likely off the cards for the foreseeable. “Any marketer going into a C-suite or a boardroom and pushing a big brand campaign in what is a harder market would be very gutsy,” per Ryan. “Brand is absolutely crucial. However, what is working now is an absolute customer focus.” Problem is, marketers, especially those in ecom, are under pressure to do more with less – but actually are getting less for more, especially in search as Shein, Temu and others drive up ad prices. “You’re seeing bid prices go up,” says Ryan. “When you've got overseas competitors coming into the Australian market, that means that you're either going to be outbid or you've got to outbid them … It's going to be a real challenge for some people”. Meanwhile ecom’s maturity means growth rates are coming down fast, creating a “pressure cooker” for marketers – and they are paring back martech spend as a result, seeking immediate wins over expensive longer-term builds. But RyanCap, after a cash plus equity deal with Paris-headquartered, UK private equity-backed Labelium, does have money to spend – and Ryan’s hunting acquisitions. Content and creative shops could be first off the blocks – maybe. “If you look at the growth channels, and you look at where clients are spending money, that will give you a view as to how we will accelerate our strategy.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s little contention today that the pro-consumer privacy lobby is winning the war over industry on privacy reform - they’re informed on industry techniques, loaded with compelling consumer research and aligned entirely on the need for a clampdown on the collection and use of an individual’s online data trail. Former NSW Deputy Privacy Commissioner and Salinger Privacy boss Anna Johnston and Choice Consumer Data Advocate, Kate Bower unpack what and why they expect a series of hard, industry-challenging privacy reforms to land in parliament next month - that’s less than six weeks away. Just how deeply the $25bn-plus marketing supply chain and tens of thousands of practitioners will be impacted will become clear as the reforms are tabled in Federal Parliament. Johnston and Bower think the updated Act will go harder than anywhere in the world. Hashed emails will be classified as personal information. Trading of geolocation data will be out. Trading of loyalty scheme data – the stuff that powers retail media and a vast targeting-attribution industry – will require companies to prove they have lawful consent to do so and they won’t be able to deny services to those that say no. But consent, says Johnston, is a very fragile thing – and companies might actually be best off concentrating on one of the legislation’s central tenets: Fair and reasonable use of data. In other words, says Choice’s Bower, does what you are doing with customer’s data pass “the privacy pub test?” If it does, meeting a very high consent threshold doesn’t apply. Right now, most are badly flunking the test. Johnston has a checklist for brands that likely have a 12-month compliance window to get houses in order. But ultimately, she says $50m fines are now in play and that “some product lines and business processes will have to stop … and frankly, that is the point of the reforms.” Cleanrooms, she suggests, may come under intense scrutiny.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just how accurate is the user data being traded by advertisers, agencies and data firms in the $700bn global digital advertising system? The former Chief Privacy Officer of UM in the US, Arielle Garcia, is exasperated - it’s garbage she says and to prove it Garcia recently accessed her profile from an ad tech vendor and found she was in “500 different audience segments across seven different data brokers, and what I saw was just a bunch of contradictory, useless, garbage data.” I.e. she was both a man and a woman, worked in food service, agriculture, a defense contractor, an engineer and was simultaneously below the poverty threshold and classified as high income. “They're selling this garbage data back and forth to one another,” she says, allowing for a host of data “premiums” to be applied by various intermediaries in the process of executing digital advertising campaigns.    “Marketers have been tricked into believing that precision and personalisation equals performance,” she says. "There's so much that's wrong with that, and the inaccuracy of the data is only one piece of that fallacy.” Meanwhile, she says big agency groups have lost their way. “It’s not just principle media models (aka arbitrage) that are problematic, but the fact most of them are incentivised to hit targets by the likes of Google and it distorts the market - “it's literally about their objectivity,” she says.  Agencies are not the only ones. “Google has captured the trade associations … they buy their way into every room.” If trade associations are saying “nothing to see here … of course that’s going to lull marketers into a false sense of security,” she says. Garcia argues Google’s manoeuvres with PMax – it’s AI-powered “just trust us” media placement product for it’s owned media assets like YouTube – “gives Google the ability to opaquely use their black box algorithms to move money wherever they want”, which could prove handy ahead of impending antitrust trials. Meanwhile, AI Overviews in search will “massacre traffic” for publishers. She says publishers must stop forcing people to log in and refocus on quality. For marketers, Garcia urges a “reorientation around people” and “prioritising quality over the illusion of precision.” How? “Demand transparency … there cannot be a market for black box products”, she says. Plus hold agencies accountable. “No one messes with the client that audits.” For everybody else in industry, Garcia has one ask – work out if YouTube is “covertly tracking people.” How? “Let's find out what X-Goog-Visitor-Id is.” Nobody seems to know. But that may change.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hyundai is the first brand - with some bravery - to have signed on to the 36 Months campaign to lift the minimum age for social media accounts from 13 to 16, launched by Nova Radio’s Michael ‘Wippa’ Wipfli and Rob Galluzzo, the boss of production company Finch. 36 months is the time a teen will reclaim from social media between 13 and 16 years. Galluzzo is “100 per cent certain” more brands will follow Hyundai to help create and fund the programs that rebuild a physical social network for teens that isn’t manipulated by the anxiety-inducing algorithms that have made young teenagers the product. Which creates the perfect platform for brands to walk all the talk about ‘purpose’ and ‘showing up in the right way’. “A brand can go to its board, and ask ‘how do we want to show up for these kids, these families, the community?’ If they don't have an answer to that, they probably need to have a pretty big discussion about what they stand for as companies,” per Galluzzo. As of last Friday, Wippa and Galluzzo had landed 90,000 signatures, more than enough to have the petition head to Canberra. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has already endorsed the campaign, stating “what we want is our youngest Australians spending more time outside, playing sport, engaging with each other in a normal way, and less time online”. State and territory premiers have also backed the move – and Wippa thinks the upcoming election creates an opportunity for legislation sooner rather than later. “There’s some easy votes to be picked up from parents if you made this an election promise,” he says. Now 36 Months is building out three crucial pillars to use the time reclaimed from the platforms to better prepare young Australians for physical and digital life ahead. Here’s Wippa and Galluzzo on where next, and how brands can help repair the fractured civics they have inadvertently funded.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A year ago Ariel Kelman boomeranged back to Salesforce after a decade helming global marketing for the likes of Amazon Web Services and Oracle. As global President and CMO of the $200bn+ customer tech giant, he’s wasted little time shaking things up – and Kelman’s view that Salesforce had “lost our focus on sales pipeline and on marketing really being a vehicle for driving business results” now appears prescient. Last week Salesforce’s stock price crashed circa 20 per cent after missing revenue guidance for the first time in decades. Ironically, most analysts still have a ‘buy rating’ on the stock – citing a “very healthy” pipeline and backing its new AI tools to power renewed growth. Kelman has driven a forensic effort unpacking marketing’s contribution to sales – from a brand investment perspective and more tactical, performance-based campaigns. He’s also reset KPIs and marketing metrics and re-engineered the firm’s attribution model – not for the fainthearted, given “you can provoke very angry religious fights” amongst attribution’s fractured tribes. Either way, Salesforce has ditched last touch for a “deep learning” model that blends and weights sales’ and marketing’s contribution to pipeline growth and revenue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.