Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

20 Episodes

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Let The Bull Loose | Citrini on Trump Trade, China, and Powell Put On Bonds

2024-11-1001:06:58

Citrini, the thematic cross-asset investor known for his prescient and profitable calls on AI and GLP-1s, joins Monetary Matters to review with Jack his “Trump basket” which since its inception in March 4, 2024 to November 8, 2024 is up 87% (his Trump market neutral basket is up 32% over the same time horizon). Citrini explains why he created the basket and how its performance tracked and often predicted Trump’s odds of winning in the betting markets. Upon Trump’s victory, he tells Jack which parts of the basket he thinks are overheated and which have room to run. Citrini also shares his views on AI, the broad stock and bond markets, and the airline industry. Recorded on November 8, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

A Defiant Chairman Powell Cuts Rates | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe

2024-11-0701:01:49

The Federal Reserve continued its course of interest rate cuts in the first FOMC meeting following the election of Donald Trump and a defiant Chairman Powell strongly rejected any notion that Trump’s presidency could affect the independence of the Federal Reserve. Here, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe discuss the Fed’s move in light of recent data, the stock market’s run both before and after Trump’s election, and their outlooks for stocks and the economy moving forward. Recorded on November 7th , 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Enter the Kuppyverse | Harris Kupperman on Brand Building by Blogging at Praetorian Capital

2024-11-0657:32

Harris Kupperman, CIO and Founder of Praetorian Capital joins Max Wiethe to share how he’s grown his firm to over $300 million in AUM, largely by breaking the institutional mold. They discuss Kupperman’s choice to build a strategy with UHNW investors and family offices in mind rather than traditional institutional investors and the benefits of a diversified base of LPs. They also discuss the firm’s blog Kuppy’s Korner, the importance of authenticity in brand building, and his choice to register the fund as a 506(c). Clarification: At 50:48 Harris mentions that almost half the capital in the fund is from gains. As of September 30th, 2024 44% of the fund's capital is from gains. Sign up for Kuppy’s Korner at: https://pracap.com Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR Follow Harris Kupperman on Twitter: https://x.com/hkuppy Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow OPM on Twitter: https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

The Great Millionaire Migration | Basil Mohr-Elzeki on Global Wealth Migration

2024-11-0349:52

Email info@monetary-matters.com to inquire about Henley & Partners, and Jack will connect you with Basil. Basil Mohr-Elzeki, Managing Director and Head of Americas for Henley & Partners, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to explain why more millionaires than ever are going to relocate countries in 2024. He delves into the causes of this phenomenon, the nuances of citizenship and residency investment, and the role that taxes, geographic diversification and other factors play in driving the migration of the world’s high-net-worth individuals. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Is The Yield Curve’s Recession Signal Wrong?Jeff Snider

2024-10-3001:26:48

Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University joins Jack to explore whether the inverted yield curve signal has been proven wrong, and just how strong or weak the U.S. economy is. Recorded on October 28, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jeff Snider on Twitter https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU Jeff’s YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

To Zero and Beyond | Building Muddy Waters Capital with Carson Block | Other People's Money with Max Wiethe

2024-10-2901:34:18

Building a successful hedge fund is hard. It’s even harder when you’re fighting the perpetual upward momentum of the market. Despite this headwind, Carson Block, CIO and Founder of Muddy Waters Capital, has made his firm into a successful fund management business and taken down billion-dollar frauds in the process. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Block explains why starting a fund became necessary to pursue activist short selling in a serious capacity, the pitfalls of capital raising and the different types of investors who are interested in specialized strategies like theirs, and how he is expanding his business with new strategies beyond activist short selling. Recorded on October 21st, 2024. Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR Follow Muddy Waters on Twitter: https://x.com/muddywatersre Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow OPM on Twitter: https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Not Backing Down On Recession Call | David Rosenberg on Wealth Effect, Uncle Sam, and Stock Market Price Bubble

2024-10-2801:10:30

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to argue why a recession is likely to occur as soon as 2025. Rosenberg points to the low savings rate and argues that fiscal deficits and a stock market price bubble are boosting consumer spending and that this will reverse if the stock market stops going up. Recorded on October 25, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow David Rosenberg on Twitter https://x.com/EconguyRosie Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

The Panic Melt-Up In Bank Stocks | Chris Whalen on Recession Fantasies & Capital Market Reawakening

2024-10-2301:10:34

Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors & Institutional Risk Analyst joins Jack Farley to explain why bank stocks are partying like it’s 1997 again. Recorded on October 21, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Chris Whalen’s latest book, “Seeing Around Corners,” https://www.freedommortgage.com/seeingaroundcorners Lev Menand & Joshua Younger paper that Chris references: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/4093/ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Jim Rogers on China, Silver, and Timeless Investment Lessons

2024-10-2056:57

Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share timeless investing lessons. Rogers warns that people who blindly follow financial pundits without doing their own analysis are likely doomed to underperform, and he explains why he is a long-term bull on Chinese shares. Rogers argues that the unprecedented sovereign debt levels in the U.S. will reignite inflation, and explains why he continues to view silver as an effective inflation hedge. Recorded on October 17, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Beeland Interests https://www.beelandinterests.com/ Jim Rogers’ website https://www.jimrogers.com/ Jim Rogers’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers

Inflation Isn’t Dead | Jim Bianco on Why Bond Yields Are Headed Higher

2024-10-1601:25:34

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Bianco Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his views on inflation, the labor market, and bonds. Bianco argues that the reason the unemployment rate has gone up is because the large amount of immigration into the U.S. has increased the labor force. Bianco makes the case that inflation is headed higher and bond yields now are probably headed higher. Recorded on October 14, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Jared Dillian: Private Equity Has Reached A Sentiment Top

2024-10-1343:01

Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap and of “Night Moves: And other stories” joins Monetary Matters to discuss his thoughts behind a recent piece he wrote called “The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market.” Jared explains why he has shorted private equity companies and why he thinks private equity has peaked as an asset class and is destined for underperformance over the next decade. Recorded on October 11, 2024. Jared’s piece, ““The Next Big Short: Hidden Risks Behind Private Equity's $8 Trillion Market”: https://m.jareddillianmoney.com/private-equity-next-big-short Jared’s Short Private Equity website: https://www.shortprivateequity.com/ Jared’s latest book, “Night Moves: And other stories”: https://www.amazon.com/Night-Moves-stories-Jared-Dillian/dp/B0DFBJS741 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

How Chinese “Stimulus” Is Widely Misunderstood | Brian McCarthy Urges Caution On The Chinese Stock Market Surge

2024-10-0953:12

SPECIAL “ASK ME ANYTHING” PROMOTION: Leave a rating and review for Monetary Matters on Apple podcast and ask Jack any question you want. Jack will answer some of the questions in future episodes. You can write the question in the body of the review, or you can send your question to to info@monetary-matters.com alongside a screenshot of your review. Brian McCarthy of Macrolens LLC joins Jack Farley to argue that the tremendous Chinese stock market rally of the past three weeks is fueled by misunderstanding of Chinese economic policy. McCarthy argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Chinese government will be 1 - 2 Trillion Yuan, or ~300 Billion USD, which McCarthy estimates is nowhere near close enough to stimulate the flailing Chinese economy. Recorded the afternoon of October 8, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://x.com/briangobosox Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Lyn Alden on China's Real Estate Implosion & Stock Market Rally

2024-10-0601:18:47

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Monetary Matters to explain why she is bullish on Chinese equities on a multi-year time horizon, and to share why she thinks nothing will stop the American economy because of the large amount of fiscal deficits the U.S government is running. Recorded on September 30, 2024. Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast: https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify: https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube: https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96

The Oil Market Has A Big Problem | Paul Sankey

2024-10-0401:03:49

Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, today’s guest thinks that the price of oil is headed not higher but lower. Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins Jack Farley on Monetary Matters to share why he thinks the price of oil is headed to as low as $50 as millions of barrels of capacity come online in Guyana, the U.S., and elsewhere, and as Saudi Arabia begins to focus on market share once again. Recorded on October 4, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://x.com/crudegusher Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Financial Times article on Saudi desire to take back market share: https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd

Harley Bassman: Bonds Are Fully Cooked Without an Imminent Recession

2024-10-0101:13:53

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, outlines his favorite trades right now and explains why he thinks bonds are fully cooked without an imminent recession. He argues that selling interest rate vol is one of the best ways to play this fully cooked bond market and explains how new issue agency MBS and other callable bonds can be used to take advantage of the richness in bond volatility. Filmed on September 26, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Learn more about Simplify https://www.simplify.us

China Fights Its Doom Loop | Leland Miller on Mammoth Stimulus From People's Bank of China

2024-09-2801:15:34

China’s central bank just shocked markets with several impressive sounding stimulus measures, causing the biggest one-week rally in Chinese stocks since 2008. But how effective is this stimulus actually going to be to the Chinese economy? Leland Miller, co-founder & CEO of China Beige Book, joins Monetary Matters to weigh on this very important issue. Leland says he thinks the rally in Chinese stocks could continue for up to two months but that the effect on the Chinese economy will be to stabilize rather than to stimulate. Recorded on September 27, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow China Beige Book on Twitter https://x.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Neil Dutta: This is What a Soft Landing Looks Like

2024-09-2550:41

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, joins Monetary Matters to update his prior call that the US economy would not enter a recession. He explains why a soft landing is still his base case and why he thinks the Fed is properly positioned to engineer that outcome even if soft economic data forces them to cut rates more aggressively. Recorded on September 21, 2024. __ Learn more about Renaissance Macro Research: https://www.renmac.com Follow Renaissance Macro Research on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Kris Sidial: "Graveyard Day" Is In Store For Short Volatility Traders

2024-09-2201:16:33

Kris Sidial, co-CIO of Ambrus Group, joins Monetary Matters to break down the conditions in volatility markets that exacerbated the sharp sell-off in early August, and explain why he thinks the risks embedded in the "short vol" trade have only gotten worse. Recorded on September 20, 2024. Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://x.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed Is Still Behind The Curve

2024-09-1959:33

Teucrium’s US Agriculture ETFs provide exposure to commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar in a convenient size and ETF wrapper, right in your traditional brokerage account. Learn more at https://teucrium.com/ Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the the Federal Reserve’s historic 50 basis point cut. Recorded shortly after Jay Powell’s press conference on September 18, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://x.com/DiMartinoBooth Danielle DiMartino Booth’s research service: https://quillintelligence.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Joseph Wang: Fed Interest Rate Cuts Could Hurt The Stock Market

2024-09-1857:27

Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and publisher of FedGuy.com, joins Jack Farley as the first guest of Monetary Matters. Joseph shares his view on the Federal Reserve's historic double interest rate cut, and explains why he thinks the interest rate cuts could be quite bearish for the stock market. Filmed on September 18, just after Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Joseph's latest piece, "When Big Cuts Are Bad": https://fedguy.com/when-big-cuts-are-bad/

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