What happens when the money supply grows too slowly or too quickly? From gold-standard deflation to QE-driven inflation and inequality, we trace the lessons of monetary history, and what we can do today to protect ourselves in an age of infinite money.Topics covered include:How is the money supply measured, and why is it a subjective exerciseWhat is an example of a negative money shockWhy an optimal monetary policy would lead to deflation, and why that is a good thingWhat causes inflationHow quantitative easing contributed to wealth inequalityWhat is demurrage currencyThe unorthodox way Richard Nixon sought to combat high inflation and a strong dollarHow to increase our wealth in an era of infinite moneySponsorsLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offShow NotesDistribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989—The Federal ReserveM2 (M2SL)—FREDGood Versus Bad Deflation: Lesson from the Gold Standard Era by Michael D. Bordo, John Landon Lane, and Angela Redish—NBERSpeech by Richard Nixon (15 August 1971)—CVCEUS - Total Market Cap Divided by M2 Money Supply—MacroMicroDid Quantitative Easing Increase Income Inequality? by Juan Antonio Montecino and Gerald Epstein—CEPWebDoes Quantitative Easing Affect Inequality: Evidence from the US - Nektarios MichailDemurrage currency—WikipediaDebt: The First 5,000 Years by David GraeberRelated Episodes482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold336: Own What Is RealSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
From salmon leaping along the Vancouver Island coast to fake bands on Spotify, this episode explores the divide between the physical and digital economy, and what lumber markets, managed forests, and everyday life teach us about staying connected to the real.Topics covered include:How timber investing works and why it is reflective of how industries evolveWhat percent of economic output is physical versus digital, and how has that changed over the past fifty yearsHow households spend their leisure timeWhy live events stand out in an AI-infested worldDoes it matter if ad images, videos, and podcasts are fake?Why we need to stay connected to the realSponsorsClaude.ai - Sign up for Claude today and get 50% off Claude ProDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offShow NotesLumber Prices Are Flashing a Warning Sign for the U.S. Economy by Ryan Dezember—The Wall Street JournalLumber Price—Trading EconomicsJ.Crew used A.I. to counterfeit their own vibes—Blackbird SpylaneAmerican Time Use Survey Summary—U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsRelated Episodes535: Six Principles for Thriving Under Uncertainty and How Big Tech Is Doing the Opposite 531: Will AI Wipe Out Half of White Collar Jobs or Is There an AI Bubble?60: Are You Hoarding Or Investing?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Central bankers set policy with incomplete information, unobservable targets, and constant trade-offs between growth, inflation, and employment. In this episode, we delve into how the fight for Federal Reserve independence could impact markets, interest rates, and your financial future.Topics covered include:What Federal Reserve Chair Powell said at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole SymposiumWhat is the Federal Reserve's mission statementWhy is it normal for U.S. presidents to disagree with the Federal Reserve's policy stance?Why attacking the Fed's independence is harmful and could lead to higher interest rates and a weakening dollarWhat causes inflation, and why is it difficult to know the correct level of interest ratesSponsorLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow Notes2025 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy—The Federal Reserve BoardTrump says U.S. interest rate is at least 3 points too high—ReutersTrump warns of economic slowdown unless Fed cuts rates, triggering selloff by Howard Schneider and Ismail Shakil—ReutersWhat is the neutral rate of interest? by Sam Boocker, Michael Ng, and David Wessel—BrookingsTrump Moves to Fire Fed’s Cook, Setting Up Historic Fight by Jonnelle Marte and Myles Miller—BloombergDifferent Types of Central Bank Insolvency and the Central Role of Seignorage by R. Reis—Semantic ScholarPowell's Econ 101: Jobs not inflation. And forget about the money supply by Howard Schneider—ReutersRelated Episodes453: The Price of Money – 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances295: Federal Reserve Insolvency and Monetizing the National Debt246: What Central Banks Don’t Know Should Concern YouSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
From the dot-com boom to today’s AI frenzy, bubbles follow a familiar script. This episode explores how to recognize them, what sustains them, and how to position your portfolio without getting swept up in the hype.Topics covered:How U.S. stock markets are the most concentrated and most expensive of all timeWhat constitutes a bubble and what sustains itHow to invest during a bubbleChanges David recently made in his portfolio in response to the AI bubbleSponsorLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesI'm Changing How I Manage My Money Because of AI by Hank Green—YouTube% S&P 500 share of top 10 companies by market cap %—Apollo AcademyCharted: S&P 500 Market Concentration Over 145 Years by Kayla Zhu—Visual CapitalistAI’s Moment and Insights from Themes Past by Anil Rao—MSCIHow Pimco Outmaneuvered Apollo and KKR to Win $29 Billion Meta Deal by Carmen Arroyo and Laura Benitez—BloombergHow to invest in a stock market bubble by Stuart Kirk—The Financial TimesBubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble by Rob Arnott, Bradford Cornell, and Shane Shepherd—Research AffiliatesRelated Episodes535: Six Principles for Thriving Under Uncertainty and How Big Tech Is Doing the Opposite 503: U.S. Stocks Have Never Been This Overhyped or Expensive500: The S&P 500 Index and the Decade Ahead365: Why Some Asset Bubbles Don’t BurstSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
A practical framework for making better decisions, managing risk, and finding opportunity in unpredictable environments. We contrast these principles with the massive $2.9 trillion AI data center build-out by Big Tech, which is betting big on a single superintelligence future. Episode SponsorsLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesInside the relentless race for AI capacity—The Financial TimesInside the AI race: can data centres ever truly be green?—The Financial TimesThe Kanye/Data Center Crossover by Paul Kedrosky—Paul KedroskyRelated Episodes531: Will AI Wipe Out Half of White Collar Jobs or Is There an AI Bubble?520: Where Are We Heading?501: Strategy and Systems Want Your Money496: Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?492: The Power of Optionality: Small Bets, Big Payoffs482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and CreativitySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Dave Thomas, CIO and Founder of long/short hedge fund, Atalan Capital Partners, shares why most hedge funds fail and the keys to being a long-term successful investor.Episode SponsorDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesFEG Insight Bridge episode pageSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
David converses with renowned illustrator and financial philosopher Carl Richards on the abstraction of money, attention capital, distinguishing risk from uncertainty, and the importance of taking microactions.Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesCarl Richard's website, Behavior GapYour Money: Reimagining Wealth in 97 Simple Sketches by Carl RichardsRelated Episodes496: Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?394: How to Get Better at Risk Taking135: Embrace the MessinessSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
A new executive order could radically reshape retirement investing by allowing private equity, crypto, and gold in 401(k) plans. This episode examines the factors driving the demand for alternative assets in defined-contribution plans, the potential risks to everyday investors, and why fiduciary rules and financial literacy gaps still matter.Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesTrump Executive Order to Help Open Up 401(k)s to Private Markets by Miriam Gottfried, Dylan Tokar, and Matt Wirz—The Wall Street JournalDonald Trump set to open US retirement market to crypto investments by Antoine Gara, Jamie John, and Stephanie Stacey—The Financial TimesU.S. Labor Department Allows Private Equity in 401(k) Plans by Chris Cumming—The Wall Street JournalU.S. Department of Labor Supplement Statement on Private Equity in Defined Contribution Plan Designated Investment Alternatives—U.S. Department of LaborState Street New TDF Includes Private Assets by PSCA Net Staff—PSCAThe Power of Private Markets by Robert Crothers et al.—BlackRockUNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT OPINION No. 22-16268The Relentless Ask: Private Markets Are Eating the World by Michael Batnick—The Irrelevant InvestorDon’t Buy Into This Easy Fix for Stock-Market Craziness by Jason Zweig—The Wall Street JournalThe Private Equity Boom Is Leaving Midsize Players Behind by Preeti Singh and Laura Benitez—Bloomberg401(k) Retirement Plans: Many Participants Do Not Understand Fee Information, but DOL Could Take Additional Steps to Help Them—U.S. Government Accountability OfficeDEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS AND THE CHALLENGE OF FINANCIAL ILLITERACY by Jill E. Fisch, Annamaria Lusardi, and Andrea Hasler—CornellOn Endowments and Unintended Consequences by Paul Kedrosky—Paul KedroskyRelated Episodes509: How to Invest in Private Credit / Direct Lending?497: How to Fix the Retirement Savings Crisis490: Should You Invest in Private Equity?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
We explore the compelling questions surrounding artificial intelligence. Will AI create more new jobs than it destroys? Is AI already destroying jobs? Are we seeing overinvestment in companies and infrastructure in the AI space? Is there evidence that AI has increased productivity?SponsorsMoney for the Rest of Us PlusAsset CampShow NotesBehind the Curtain: A white-collar bloodbath by Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen—AxiosYuval Noah Harari Statement - Post by Nunki08—RedditChallenger Report June 2025—Challenger, Gray & ChristmasEntry level jobs fall by nearly a third since ChatGPT launch by Karl Matchett—The IndependentStrategic Insights for M&A in the Evolving AI Market—S&P GlobalNvidia Becomes First Public Company Worth $4 Trillion by Tripp Mickle—The New York TimesSilicon Valley is racing to build the first $1trn unicorn—The EconomistHow to use generative AI to augment your workforce by Betsy Vereckey—MIT ManagementHumans must remain at the heart of the AI story by Marc Benioff—The Financial TimesThe AI Industry Is Radicalizing by Matteo Wong—The AtlanticTASKS, AUTOMATION, AND THE RISE IN U.S. WAGE INEQUALITY by DARON ACEMOGLU AND PASCUAL RESTREPO—EconometricaMyPillow CEO’s lawyers fined for AI-generated court filing in Denver defamation case by Olivia Prentzel—The Colorado SunWhich Workers Will A.I. Hurt Most: The Young or the Experienced? by Noam Scheiber—The New York TimesGenerative AI at Work by Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, Lindsey Raymond—Oxford AcademicThe Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity by Parshin Shojaee et al.—AppleRelated Episodes507: Where You Live Matters – How Geography Contributes to Wealth457: AI’s Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat439: How and Why to Invest in AI417: Will Generative AI Replace Your Job?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
How the investing landscape is being reshaped by the global race for critical minerals.Topics covered in this conversation between FEG's Greg Dowling and private equity firm Kinterra Capital's co-founders, Cheryl Brandon and Kamal Toor include:How mining and mineral processing workWhat are critical minerals, what is driving the demand for them, and will it continueHow the rise of passive management has led to underinvestment in miningHow to reconcile care for the environment and the need to mine critical mineralsWhat are the attributes that contribute to successful private capital investmentsWhy querying ChatGPT is insufficient to get up to speed on an investing topic, and what to do instead.Episode SponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesFEG Insight Bridge episode page with transcriptKinterra CapitalRelated Episodes526: The Future of Power: Energy at a Crossroads with Scott Harland384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
We examine how robo-advisors have evolved over the past decade to determine if their services justify the fees they charge.Topics covered include:How large are the top 5 robo-advisorsRobo-advisor feesRobo-advisor holdingsWhy robo-advisors are turning toward direct indexing for tax loss harvestingHow much excess return does tax loss harvesting generateWho can benefit from using robo-advisorsSponsorsAsset CampLinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesThe Tax Benefits of Direct Indexing, and How They Are Affected by the Biden Tax Plan by Nathan Sosner et al.—SSRNAn Empirical Evaluation of Tax-Loss Harvesting Alpha by Shomesh Chaudhuri et al.—SSRNRelated Episodes398: When Should You Hire An Investment Advisor? Two Case Studies92: What Robo-Advisors RecommendSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
How our spending, investing, and life strategy change as our net worth grows. We consider how skill, luck, discipline, relationships, and AI can allow us to ascend and, in some cases, descend the wealth ladder.SponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesOf Dollars and Data - Nick MaggiulliThe Wealth Ladder by Nick MaggiulliRitzholz Wealth ManagementRelated Episodes461: How Much Should Your Net Worth Grow Each Year?252: How to Become Wealthy119: Investing Won't Make You RichSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Circle Invest, one of the leading stablecoin providers, just went public, and its stock price has tripled. We delve into the growth of stablecoins, their applications, and the associated risks. We also discuss the surprising political pushback against central bank digital currencies.Episode SponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offNetSuite Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesTop Stablecoin Tokens by Market Capitalization—CoinMarketCapRuns and Flights to Safety: Are Stablecoins the New Money Market Funds? by Kenechukwu Anadu et al—New York FedAmendment No. 3 to FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933—SECWhy Crypto Stablecoins Still Worry the Fed by Olga Kharif and Yueqi Yang—BloombergCentral Bank Digital Currency Tracker—Atlantic CouncilSTRENGTHENING AMERICAN LEADERSHIP IN DIGITAL FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY—The White HouseStablecoins and monetary sovereignty: the ball is in Europe’s court by Ignazio Angeloni—The Financial TimesRelated Episodes488: Should You Invest in an Ethereum ETF?424: Are More Bank Runs Coming? The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank387: Why Most Money Fails373: Are Stablecoins Safe? Should You Own Them?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
From wildfires to AI-driven demand surges, the power grid is under pressure—and so is the investment landscape around it. Scott Harland of Rockland Capital visits with Greg Dowling of FEG to explore the risks, opportunities, and critical shifts shaping the future of energy.Topics covered include:The necessity of a balanced energy mix, including traditional and renewable energy sourcesHow the private sector is playing a larger role in building out energy infrastructureRising energy demand from data centers and AI, and how that demand can be metInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesHungry, Hungry, Hyperscalers with Scott Harlan - FEG Insight BridgeRelated Episodes502: Should You Invest in Nuclear Energy?469: Which Will Perform Better: Berkshire Hathaway or Utility Stocks?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
With longer-term U.S. interest rates rising and no plan to reduce the budget deficit, is a U.S. national debt crisis imminent?Topics covered include:Why S&P, Fitch, and now Moody's stripped the U.S. of its pristine AAA debt ratingHow the U.S. national debt dynamics compare to Greece, Italy, and JapanWhat are four things investors should monitor for signs that the national debt crisis is worsening or spiraling out of controlInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesMoody's Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable—Moody's RatingsResearch Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative—S&P GlobalInterest Expense and Average Interest Rates on the National Debt FY 2010 – FYTD 2025—FiscalData.Treasury.govThe Stark Math on the GOP Tax Plan: It Doesn’t Cut the Deficit by Richard Rubin—The Wall Street JournalThe Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055—Congressional Budget OfficeWalmart says higher prices could hit this month due to tariffs by Natalie Sherman—BBCPost on May 17th, 2025; 7:27 AM by Donald J. Trump—Truth SocialWalmart responds to Trump comment that retailer should ‘eat the tariffs’ by Kyler Swaim—The HillWhat’s behind Japan’s High Government Debt? by YiLi Chien and Ashley H. Stewart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisRelated Episodes487: Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? Global Economic and Population Shifts479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To DoSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
How can we apply the same emergency measures that Harvard and other universities are using to navigate a financial crisis? Also, how universities invest their endowments and what their performance has been.Topics covered include:What has led to the financial crisis at HarvardWhat actions has the university takenHow do endowments invest and spend their fundsHow endowments maintain intergenerational equityHow we can apply the principles universities use in our own investingSponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesLetter Sent to Harvard 2025-04-11—HarvardHarvard Response 2025-04-14—HarvardTrump Administration Will Freeze $2 Billion After Harvard Refuses Demands by Vimal Patel—The New York TimesShould Harvard Be Tax Exempt? by The Editorial Board—The Wall Street JournalFact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Reforms Accreditation to Strengthen Higher Education—The White HouseAt Grim Town Hall, Harvard Medical School Leaders Tell Staff to Expect Layoffs and Far-Reaching Cuts by Avani B. Rai and Saketh Sundar—The Harvard CrimsonCan Harvard Use Its Endowment To Make Up For Federal Cuts? It’s Possible, but Not That Simple. by Avani B. Rai and Saketh Sundar—The Harvard CrimsonYale Weighs $850 Million Bond Sale Amid Trump’s Higher Education Attack by Elizabeth Rembert and Amanda Albright—BloombergYale seeks to sell billions in private equity investments as political pressures from Trump mount by Liese Klein—CT Insider2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments—NACUBOEndowments Face Liquidity Crunch Amid Market Pullback, Funding Cuts by Matt Toledo—Chief Investment OfficerBig investors borrow against private equity holdings amid cash crunch by Amelia Pollard and Antoine Gara—The Financial TimesRelated Episodes402: Why Student Debt Is So High and Forgiving It Doesn’t Fix the Problem245: Is College Worth It?180: Can You Outperform Harvard’s Endowment?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Discover how bond market ETFs have transformed investing — making bonds easier, cheaper, and more accessible than ever. We also explore how the bond market’s very composition has evolved.Episode SponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesThe total return strategy in bonds is far from dead by James Bianco—The Financial TimesWhat I Learned in My First Year Managing Fixed-Income by Jim Bianco—Bianco Research AdvisorsETFs are eating the bond market by Robin Wigglesworth and Will Schmitt—The Financial TimesRelated Episodes463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities418: Bond Investing MasterclassSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Ali Akay, CIO of Carrhae Capital, answers why invest in emerging markets. He also shares with Greg Dowling of FEG insights on China, Mexico, South Korea, Argentina, Greece, Turkey, South Korea, and South Africa.Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEmerging Unscathed: Featuring Ali Akay—FEG Insight BridgeRelated Episodes474: Are Emerging Markets Bonds a Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity?411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha MehtaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.Topics covered include:What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024.How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returnsWhy did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting.Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesTestimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve BoardFederal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic DataNonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic DataNarrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University PressDonald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial TimesTourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronewsTrump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy by Nick Timiraos, Jack Pitcher, and Chelsey Dulaney—The Wall Street JournalRelated Episodes519: Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade?380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial SuccessSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior.Topics covered include:What is ergodicity and why it mattersHow path dependency and emerging phenomena disrupt the long-termHow podcasting and blogging has changedWhat is the future of Money for the Rest of UsEpisode SponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesWayback Machine: jdstein.comProbabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA—Morgan StanleyThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random HouseThe 60% Problem — How AI Search Is Draining Your Traffic by Tor Constantino, MBA—ForbesHollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren’t Showing Up. by Ben Fritz—The Wall Street JournalHow Late Night TV Is Downsizing by Alex Weprin and Rick Porter—The Hollywood Reporter‘Severance’ Surpasses ‘Ted Lasso’ To Become Apple TV+’s Most Watched Series With Season 2 Launch by Nellie Andreeva—DeadlineList of most watched television broadcasts in the United States—WikipediaTao te Ching by Lao Tzu (Author), Marc Mullinax (Translator)—fortress pressWhy AI Might Not Take All Our Jobs—If We Act Quickly by Justin Lahart—The Wall Street JournalElon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius by Gautam Mukunda—BloombergRelated Episodes492: The Power of Optionality: Small Bets, Big Payoffs484: 7 Steps to Living a Longer Life482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and CreativitySee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Bob
Good covering last century of real money. How the financial abyss many face today leads directly to the irresponsible spending spree of LBJ. Since he created the loophole politicians have been giving the Cloward-Piven to the working class ever since .
Bob
Nice comparison of reasonable business practices to the current practices on the speculative AI data center build out bubble.
Bob
Not so much on billionaires enriching themselves at the taxpayer trough through graft on unreliable energy. Without massive subsidies unreliable energy wouldn't be even close to competitive costs with traditional sources. Worst part is that uni-party politicians are creating more inflation to fund this while depleting usable agricultural lands at the same time, which will create more food scarcity. A multi win for the globalists.
Bob
There's a reason the founders designed the judicial branch as the weakest. They were created to render 'opinions' and provide relief to individual plantiffs with grievances standing before them. I think we could concede that if you believe in Keynesian economics, with the looming massive US debt there is not nearly the bang for the buck from the squandered spending that there once was?
Bob
Interesting topic of comparison. As a point in light of your pointers, I would remind you that the largest US employment growth of the last recent years has been in the gubmit sector producing nothing but stifling economic activity. Odd you mention the saving grace of the US economic system is the reserve currency status, when it seems every uniparty politician is doing everything in their ability to destroy that status. Almost like they want the nation to fail and fold under to a world system?