Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says the stock market is inflating a bubble, but that it's really "a bubble on top of a bubble" in the artificial intelligence arena, where the stocks in the industry — but also those adjacent to the technology  are booming even though many have yet to prove a real ability to generate profits. Green is worried about slowing economic conditions and expects a recession to hit, barring some significant efforts by the government and/or central bankers --  in 2026. He says investors are overlooking opportunities in fixed income broadly and high-yield specifically, and he favors those areas over rushing into whatever has been popular for a while now.    Jacob Ayres-Thomson, chief executive of 3AI which is working with financial-services firms and index providers to bring artificial intelligence-driven new approaches to the market  discusses how  new technologies are changing the old ways of investing, but without eliminating them. He says that no AI-driven bot will ever replace the genius of a Warren Buffett, but it will help make ordinary market actions easier to forecast and, potentially, capture in an investment.    Michael Scordo, wealth management adviser at Park Avenue Capital, discusses the latest data released from the Northwestern Mutual 2025 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that Generation X — the middle child of the generations with its oldest members turning 60 this year — is particularly worried about its financial future. Many are going through sandwich-generation problems — still raising kids while aging parents now require care — and more than half think they won’t be financially prepared for retirement when the time comes.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the chair of the Outlook Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the latest survey, released Monday, showed higher expectations for economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2026, with GDP growth -- which had been pegged at roughly 1.3% -- now expected to grow by 1.8%. Bostjancic cautioned that the improved growth forecasts don't make for a frothy economy, but rather seem to reduce the chances of recession. She says that economists improved their outlook, largely because they were too pessimistic earlier this year as they forecast the impacts of tariffs and expected more of a drag on growth than we have seen in the last six months.  In the Market Call, hedge fund manager Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital discusses his long/short approach to stocks, and how he hunts out "special situations" that he believes are poised for above-average growth. Sacheti is a "Tiger Cub," a disciple of Julian Robertson, a legendary hedge fund manager. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who, like himself, has a new grandchild, but who has very different concerns because that baby has been diagnosed with Down Syndrome. Rich Yam, director of wealth strategy/wealth and tax planning at Wealthspire Advisors, helps Chuck examine the various considerations that a special-needs family should have, and how grandparents can provide real help for a lifetime.

Meb Faber, chief investment officer at the Cambria Funds, says that "extremely high valuations are a weight that's hard to overcome," and that the United States is currently "the most expensive country across the board." He notes that when a country ends the year with a price/earnings ratio above 40, the average future 10-year returns are zero. As a result, Faber is suggesting that investors diversify internationally, consider gold — which her describes as being "like your crazy cousin Eddie" coming to the family holiday party — and more. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that companies can manipulate earnings numbers in ways that keep investors interested, but which make future earnings misses most likely, and he puts those stocks that are likely to miss earnings in "The Danger Zone." Trainer says that 72 members of the Standard & Poor's 500 are currently overstating earnings by 10 percent or more. Trainer singled out NRG Energy, which has street estimates of 35 cents per share, but which he says is more likely to generate 6 cents per share in profits. Chip Lupo discusses the 2025 Early Holiday Shopping Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly half of American consumers aren't waiting for Halloween to start their holiday shopping, but rather they will begin this month (if they haven't started already).  

Eddie Ghabour, chief executive officer at Key Advisors Wealth Management, says "the worst is behind us from the economic slowdown," and he expects growth to accelerate at the end of the year and into the first quarter. Combined with rate cuts, it will add fuel to a market that he says is clearly inflating a bubble, with that performance boosted as well by the longer a government shutdown rolls. He says investors should not fear the bubble, because the market will telegraph the bursting. "You can make the most money in bubbles," he says. "The key to bubbles is riding it up but making sure you are not all in when that bubble pops." Ghabour is not the only one talking about the market being in a bubble, as David Lundgren, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, says the technicals show a market clearly in bubble territory, but in the long upward phase of that cycle. That's why he is fully invested, for now, despite expecting an ugly downturn that he thinks could begin next year. Drake Hicks, head of impact investing at Variant Investments, discusses the unusual intersection of closed-end funds with impact investing, which goes beyond ESG (environmental, social and government principles) to invest in projects which have a purpose beyond just a profit margin. The firm runs the Variant Impact Fund, a high-yield closed-end interval fund whose assets are aligned with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, and Hicks talks about how shareholders benefit from the interval structure.

Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says many investors believe the current stock market run to record levels has been about price momentum, but he says that earnings momentum has shown growth that is strong enough that it should calm the nerves of investors who think the artificial intelligence business is inflating a market bubble. Valens' research revolves around "uniform accounting," and Spivey discusses proposals that would change how often public companies must report earnings, and talks about why he believes it would not have as much impact on the market as many observers expect. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes the newest fund created by Vanguard — an emerging markets fund that excludes China — his pick for "ETF of the Week," noting that the ETF is a solid passive adjunct to actively managed emerging-markets strategies. Excluding China, Rosenbluth noted, is a strategic choice that may depend on an investor's gut feeling over the potential for a trade war or bigger tariff problems in the future. Financial adviser Dan Dorval of Dorval & Chorne discusses 'Financial Success for the Rest of Us: Quality of Life Planning for Mainstream America," the book he wrote 20-plus years ago and just revised. He discusses how planning has changed but how developing investor discipline has remained one of the key factors of whether a person will achieve financial prosperity.

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the equity market is "very excited, very ecstatic and continuing to move up," but she warns that stock valuations are extended and she says the market is setting up a fall. Smith says two phrases -- "The Emperor is wearing no clothes" and "The band played on" -- tell the story of this market, but she expects that when the investing public wakes up to see damaging impacts of tariffs and other policies, the market will fall hard. She's not expecting that turn soon, but she says it's unavoidable if current policies are followed through to their economic conclusion.   Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, brings his "five-lens approach" to stock research to the Market Call. He warns that investors should be worrying about euphoria over recent market results, noting that if your bartender or barber is giving you stock advice, it's a sign that the market is overbought and investors should be patient. Natalie Iannello discusses a study done for IPX1031.com which showed that 2 in 5 Americans are changing investment strategies and moving money due to a tough economy, with 42% shifting to safer investments and 36% adding new income streams. Reducing debt is a key priority, but Iannello says an alarming number of Americans have tapped their emergency assets or sold investments to get by in current conditions.

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says he "would like the Fed to be lower," and says that rate cuts from the central bank will help to spur small-cap stocks starting to participate more in the rally. Schwartz likes the looks of international stocks, but particularly Japan, which has reached record highs and finally recaptured peaks first experienced decades ago, but which Shcwartz says is valued in a way that supports significant future growth. Schwartz, co-author of "Stocks for the Long Run," says that while short-term turmoil could send the market for a loop, it is positioned well to keep delivering decent long-term returns. Toni Turner, president of TrendStar Group, says it would "be normal and natural right now for this market to move down a little bit," because the market has reached and held highs, but she says that the technicals "are all beautiful right now," even if she is holding her breath a bit right now. Turner says that as along as the Standard & Poor's Index remains among its 20- and 50-day moving averages, "she's breathing fine," but she is prepared to "get wise" and do some profit-taking when the trend starts to weaken. David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Global Retirement Index, which assesses retirement security in 44 developed countries to see how well those nations are positioned to support aging populations. The index found again this year that Norway is the best-prepared country, with the United States finishing in the middle of the pack both among all countries and among the biggest nations; only one of the biggest nations even makes the top 10 in this annual study, which Goodsell notes may be due to the increased challenges that come with having so many more people reaching retirement age.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says the economy is reasonably healthy and has been resilient amid difficult headlines, which make it likely to accelerate as rate cuts, tax cuts and deregulation kick in and provide a spending boost. At the same time, Brusuelas says he thinks the market is building "bubbles and period of over-speculation where there's a concentration of risk in one area of the equities market," which could lead to "a healthy correction" that brings the market back to earth and squeezes out the speculators. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has long disliked the electric vehicle industry, noting that the stocks are priced more on hype than on any proven ability to deliver. Today he puts Luci Group in The Danger Zone, noting that the company has persistent ongoing losses, high cash burn, heavy shareholder dilution and is facing profitable competitors in a market that is seeing demand fall. Worse yet, he says the stock is priced as if it will "sell more vehicles than the best-selling passenger car in America." Sam Bourgi of Investors Observer discusses the latest Big Mac Housing Index, which showed that it now takes nearly 71,000 Big Macs from McDonald's priced at the national average, to buy the median-price house in the United States, and what those changing dynamics — housing prices that actually have fallen in the last three years against rising inflation on food prices — means for the broad economy.

Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says "the market wants higher" and is filled with cup-and-saucer patterns that "are waiting for handles to form," which is typically a bullish sign for individual names. Zanger says the broad market is showing some technical signs of resistance, but says investors should stick with what has been working. He did note, however, that for all of the publicity they get, not all of the Magnificent Seven stocks have been in the market's sweet spot from a technical standpoint; he favors Nvidia and Alphabet (google) at this point.  Scott Stevens, chief executive officer at Grays Peak Capital, looks at the private-credit markets, and particularly at how defense-critical spending is being impacted by the government shutdown. He also discusses private equity, venture capital and real estate markets and how they are responding to a new rate-cut cycle and more. Ray DiBernardo, portfolio manager of the XAI Madison Equity Premium Income fund, says that covered-call strategies have become increasingly popular of late, as investors want to goose income while reducing market risk. While investors should use covered calls more as an income-oriented investment, their outperformance during the market downturn in 2022 has many investors also using them to hedge market risk. Plus, Chuck follows up on a suggestion from earlier in the week that the government shutdown should spur everyone to take a financial stress test by answering a listener's question on just how to implement that strategy.

Ed Campbell, the founder of Red Hook Phoenix Investment Partners, says that key shifts in the economy triggered by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation, changes to the financial situation, shifting geopolitics and more will make it so that markets and economies don't get so far off-kilter that they create boom and bust patterns. He says recessions and downturns will continue, but that the market will act more like it has in recent years, where it has climbed the wall of worry to new heights overcoming stumbles but avoiding crashes. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, acknowledges that the government shutdown and other current conditions have made investors nervous, so his ETF of the Week is a pick with built-in downside protection to calm the nerves. In the Market Call, Adam Coons, chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management, discusses how he uses ETFs for a core-and-satellite investment approach that currently is neutral to market conditions, meaning that he believes investors should be rebalancing portfolios to return to planned asset allocations.

Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies for Neuberger Berman says that "valuation becomes less important when you have high conviction in sustained growth of earnings, economic growth and high return on equity," which is why he's focused on the earnings portion of price/earnings and is plowing forward with stocks even with the markets near record highs. Blazek acknowledges that valuations are stretched, but says that is much more important during times when there is less confidence in the economy continuing to grow and power solid earnings. Blazek likes the looks of international investments — particularly Japan and China — because they have better valuations at a time when global growth appears likely to pick up. David Busch, co-chief investment officer at Trajan Wealth, says he is worried that the impact of the government shutdown could be felt most in delayed economic numbers, which could impact what the Federal Reserve does next. When it comes to the market, Busch is in the same camp as Blazek, thinking the earnings power has the potential to make valuations less important, though he notes he will be looking for that trend to change when third-quarter earnings are released soon. Ivana Delevska, founder of Spear Invest — which runs the Spear Alpha ETF — brings her approach to industrial technology to the Market Call.

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, says that investors need to "keep on dancing" while the music is playing, but she says the tunes are about to change or stop, with valuations setting the market up for a decline of up to 20 percent that could might take a while to get here but which could show up this year if the market has a bad reaction to the Federal Reserve cooling on rate cuts. She notes that the rate-cut cycle could cut short the current small-cap rally, contributing to a down or sideways period. Hooper isn't backing away from domestic markets, but says investors should rebalance portfolios and lean into the better valuations available in foreign markets. She's not the only one expecting the market to take a breather or more here, as Mike Passante, director of financial planning at Focused Wealth Management says that technical indicators show that the stock market may be hitting resistance levels now, which could lead to a small pullback as the market resets and refreshes itself. Passante says the market has room to rebound to levels that are slightly higher than today, but he notes any more significant gains this year would require a big increase in investors' animal spirits near year-end. In the Book Interview, Victoria Bateman discusses “Economica: A Global History of Women, Wealth, and Power,” and introduces us to some women whose roles helped to make the world rich but whose exploits have mostly been ignored or forgotten by history.

With a potential shutdown of the federal government loming on Tuesday — which would result in hundreds of thousands of workers being furloughed — the stock market enters this week on edge. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, has examined how the market has responded to past shutdowns, and notes that the impacts typically are short-lived, though the longer any closure continues, the greater and more long-lasting the likely impacts. Chuck follows up on the theme by noting that watching such a large number of workers potentially going through a personal crisis should trigger everyone to take a financial stress test, effectively simulating what would happen if they were furloughed and missed a pay period or more. He says that putting personal finances under strain helps set priorities and may also show that a saver has the ability to save more and differently. Brian Thorp, chief executive officer at Wealthtender discusses a survey done by the firm which shows that 25 percent of Americans with $100,000 or more in assets would use artificial intelligence for financial advice or to find the human adviser who they would trust to help with their finances. Thorp says the results show that investors still value human advice, but they are using AI to bring some measure of control or order to the process of getting assistance. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, reaffirms buy-now/pay-later provider Affirm Holdings as belonging in the Danger Zone, despite a series of management moves that raised cash and got the company off the list of zombie stocks while also pushing the price higher. He says investors who buy the shares now will, indeed, be paying later for the purchase, unless the company can find a way to generate profits out of taking on the risk of retailers, something it has struggled with since New Constructs first put it in the Danger Zone in 2021.

Jim Besaw, chief investment officer at GenTrust, says that the market is pricing everything as if all artificial intelligence ideas are going to come through and deliver revolutionary change and profits, and that investors are ignoring the risks that come with the technology. That could be setting them up for a fall, although Besaw is neutral on the market rather than negative, and is also neutral on asset allocations, noting that he's not leaning into specific sectors or markets -- with the possible exception of favoring international markets slightly to domestic -- and is instead at baseline levels trying to remain calm and patient while headline risks play out and signal the next moves. Steven McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selections & Timing Newsletter discusses how his timing models are bullish right now, across all asset classes. While the headline risks have captured investors' attention, he says there is not much on the horizon right now that could turn the timing models bearish quickly. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, looks at business-development companies, which have been in the news lately as industry watchers have questioned whether the high yields could be luring investors into a sticky situation when rates start falling and business conditions tighten. He draws on history and times when BDCs have been whipsawed by the market to look at whether a collapse is driven by the situation or by the system itself.

Nate Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, says that he's still leaning into equities despite stock valuations being stretched, noting that the fundamentals support modest gains and aren't signalling a bubble or crisis. Thooft does worry that the market may run out of momentum and may lack a catalyst for further gains by the time 2026 rolls around, but for now he says there are plenty of reasons to keep investing and not to be scared off by high prices.  Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's latest retirement savings report, released Wednesday, which showed that nearly 60 percent of workers are behind on their retirement savings. Hamrick noted that the problem is partially about failing to make set-asides, but it is also caused by a lack of financial planning and common misperceptions about how money grows over time and how much it takes to afford a comfortable retirement.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a Fidelity fund his pick as the ETF of the Week, but this selection is about the investment-grade assets the fund holds, and how they are an interesting actively managed change-up to more conventional fixed-income funds. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener whose wife wants to buy a new car and who wonders if it ever makes sense to buy new when he could save money on a quality used car.

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, says rate cuts are not a panacea for the housing market, especially because Americans got used to nearly 50 years of declining mortgage rates until they moved from the 3% level up to their 6% range over the last few years. Now — with consumers feeling like they have golden handcuffs in older, low-rate mortgages — Fleming says gains will be slow, because improved affordability will need to be driven by income growth among consumers, and paychecks will have to increase at a rate faster than home-price appreciation to overcome rate concerns.  Dan Wiener, former chairman and chief executive at Adviser Investments (now RWA Wealth Partners) — the long-time editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors — discusses the piece he wrote for Barron's this week, "I Learned the Hard Way: Private Investments Probably Don't Belong in Your Portfolio," and discusses why he thinks that recent law changes that make alternatives more accessible in retirement plans are good for financial companies but bad for consumers. Research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a recent study showing that consumers recognize that it is their spending habits, more than inflation and market conditions, that is behind financial woes. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame themselves for credit card debt.

Phillip Wool, chief research officer and lead portfolio manager, Rayliant Global Advisors, says "there are places where valuations are so stretched I find it hard to explain," but he notes that is more in certain sectors and certain themes, but he says the global economy is in a good place, which makes him optimistic about the future for stocks, just cautious about how much investors should set expectations. He notes that when valuations get this stretched, future returns tend to be muted. He also discusses why he believes there is still time for investors who have missed the foreign stock rally this year to get involved. "This is not something that has played out," he said, "there's still room for this international outperformance to continue." Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds — who was the first portfolio manager of an Internet fund when they first emerged in the 1990s — talks stocks in the Market Call, but also focuses on the similarities between the artificial intelligence boom that's powering the markets today and the Internet bubble that ended so badly with a market crash in 2000. Plus, Chuck remembers longtime Wall Street Journal columnist and personal finance educator Jonathan Clements of HumbleDollar.com, who passed away over the weekend after a battle with lung cancer. Clements — a long-time contemporary of Chuck's in the personal finance journalism world — was last on the show one year ago today, discussing his diagnosis and leaving behind lasting lessons.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that the market’s earnings power is enough to keep pushing it forward, overcoming obstacles like increased tariff impacts and sticky inflation and leading to an optimistic outlook for next year  while acknowledging the headline risks that have investors’ attention, Mullarkey said that earnings growth could extend to small caps — particularly after government deregulation efforts take hold — to broaden out and extend the current run. David Trainer, president of New Constructs says a recent rally in shares of Snap Inc. doesn’t change bad fundamentals. While Trainer said the company has moved out of “zombie stock” status, it’s still dangerously overvalued and due to resume its fall. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discussed how the market at record levels and imminent rate cuts contributed to bullish sentiment jumping dramatically last week in the latest AAAII Sentiment Survey, with neutral feelings dropping to particularly low levels. Rotblut explained that the low neutral sentiment tends to be more of an indicator — an alarming one — than the spike in positive vibes. Plus, Chuck gives an update on the funds that hackers stole from an online savings account and his efforts to get the money back. 

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says "there's a lot of funky stuff going on in the labor market," and that reduced interest rates may not change conditions but could instead impact the market and contribute to a melt-up that helps the bull market roll on. While melt-ups do tend to be followed by a regression, Yardeni does not see the market reversing too sharply; he's not currently worried about a recession and instead says the current decade is a new Roaring '20s, though he notes that this go-round is unlikely to end in another Great Depression, and instead thinks that current conditions can also turn the next decade into the "Rolling '30s." Jason Brown of The Brown Report — the host of the "Five-Year Millionaire"podcast — says that the technicals are giving him "a lot of reasons to be bullish" without "much to slow it down" on the horizon. That should have investors digging deep on A.I. stocks, especially on any pullbacks or declines, where he says the long-term potential of the new technologies will reward investors who are able to remain patient through volatility. Axel Merk, the head of Merk Investments and the Merk Funds, but also chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals Fund, says there is no real end in sight for the current gold rally, due to the start of rate cuts, a weakening dollar and persistent geopolitical risks, including tariffs. ASA Gold, which invests largely in junior mining companies, is up more than 100 percent year-to-date — compared to roughly 40 percent gains for physical gold ETFs — but still carries a double-digit discount; Merk explains in "The NAVigator" why that unusual situation is logical given current market conditions.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that while stock market valuations look high, "they're not crazy either," because the companies are making money at levels that justify the higher prices. He says he is leaning towards value — and holding cash while waiting for buying pullbacks — and away from the biggest names, noting that the Magnificent Seven stocks are "where the risk is."  He's not expecting a recession, noting that employment is holding and consumer spending is strong, conditions that normally forestall economic downturns. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says the long-awaited rally in small-cap stocks may be in the offing, as he picks a small-cap value fund from VictoryShares as his  "ETF of the Week." Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser, brings his "buy the manager, not the fund" approach to Vanguard's funds and ETFs, but also talks about the areas of a portfolio where investors will want to go outside of the world's biggest fund company to get real complete a well-diversified portfolio.