Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies for Neuberger Berman says that "valuation becomes less important when you have high conviction in sustained growth of earnings, economic growth and high return on equity," which is why he's focused on the earnings portion of price/earnings and is plowing forward with stocks even with the markets near record highs. Blazek acknowledges that valuations are stretched, but says that is much more important during times when there is less confidence in the economy continuing to grow and power solid earnings. Blazek likes the looks of international investments — particularly Japan and China — because they have better valuations at a time when global growth appears likely to pick up. David Busch, co-chief investment officer at Trajan Wealth, says he is worried that the impact of the government shutdown could be felt most in delayed economic numbers, which could impact what the Federal Reserve does next. When it comes to the market, Busch is in the same camp as Blazek, thinking the earnings power has the potential to make valuations less important, though he notes he will be looking for that trend to change when third-quarter earnings are released soon. Ivana Delevska, founder of Spear Invest — which runs the Spear Alpha ETF — brings her approach to industrial technology to the Market Call.

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, says that investors need to "keep on dancing" while the music is playing, but she says the tunes are about to change or stop, with valuations setting the market up for a decline of up to 20 percent that could might take a while to get here but which could show up this year if the market has a bad reaction to the Federal Reserve cooling on rate cuts. She notes that the rate-cut cycle could cut short the current small-cap rally, contributing to a down or sideways period. Hooper isn't backing away from domestic markets, but says investors should rebalance portfolios and lean into the better valuations available in foreign markets. She's not the only one expecting the market to take a breather or more here, as Mike Passante, director of financial planning at Focused Wealth Management says that technical indicators show that the stock market may be hitting resistance levels now, which could lead to a small pullback as the market resets and refreshes itself. Passante says the market has room to rebound to levels that are slightly higher than today, but he notes any more significant gains this year would require a big increase in investors' animal spirits near year-end. In the Book Interview, Victoria Bateman discusses “Economica: A Global History of Women, Wealth, and Power,” and introduces us to some women whose roles helped to make the world rich but whose exploits have mostly been ignored or forgotten by history.

With a potential shutdown of the federal government loming on Tuesday — which would result in hundreds of thousands of workers being furloughed — the stock market enters this week on edge. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, has examined how the market has responded to past shutdowns, and notes that the impacts typically are short-lived, though the longer any closure continues, the greater and more long-lasting the likely impacts. Chuck follows up on the theme by noting that watching such a large number of workers potentially going through a personal crisis should trigger everyone to take a financial stress test, effectively simulating what would happen if they were furloughed and missed a pay period or more. He says that putting personal finances under strain helps set priorities and may also show that a saver has the ability to save more and differently. Brian Thorp, chief executive officer at Wealthtender discusses a survey done by the firm which shows that 25 percent of Americans with $100,000 or more in assets would use artificial intelligence for financial advice or to find the human adviser who they would trust to help with their finances. Thorp says the results show that investors still value human advice, but they are using AI to bring some measure of control or order to the process of getting assistance. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, reaffirms buy-now/pay-later provider Affirm Holdings as belonging in the Danger Zone, despite a series of management moves that raised cash and got the company off the list of zombie stocks while also pushing the price higher. He says investors who buy the shares now will, indeed, be paying later for the purchase, unless the company can find a way to generate profits out of taking on the risk of retailers, something it has struggled with since New Constructs first put it in the Danger Zone in 2021.

Jim Besaw, chief investment officer at GenTrust, says that the market is pricing everything as if all artificial intelligence ideas are going to come through and deliver revolutionary change and profits, and that investors are ignoring the risks that come with the technology. That could be setting them up for a fall, although Besaw is neutral on the market rather than negative, and is also neutral on asset allocations, noting that he's not leaning into specific sectors or markets -- with the possible exception of favoring international markets slightly to domestic -- and is instead at baseline levels trying to remain calm and patient while headline risks play out and signal the next moves. Steven McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selections & Timing Newsletter discusses how his timing models are bullish right now, across all asset classes. While the headline risks have captured investors' attention, he says there is not much on the horizon right now that could turn the timing models bearish quickly. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, looks at business-development companies, which have been in the news lately as industry watchers have questioned whether the high yields could be luring investors into a sticky situation when rates start falling and business conditions tighten. He draws on history and times when BDCs have been whipsawed by the market to look at whether a collapse is driven by the situation or by the system itself.

Nate Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, says that he's still leaning into equities despite stock valuations being stretched, noting that the fundamentals support modest gains and aren't signalling a bubble or crisis. Thooft does worry that the market may run out of momentum and may lack a catalyst for further gains by the time 2026 rolls around, but for now he says there are plenty of reasons to keep investing and not to be scared off by high prices.  Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's latest retirement savings report, released Wednesday, which showed that nearly 60 percent of workers are behind on their retirement savings. Hamrick noted that the problem is partially about failing to make set-asides, but it is also caused by a lack of financial planning and common misperceptions about how money grows over time and how much it takes to afford a comfortable retirement.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a Fidelity fund his pick as the ETF of the Week, but this selection is about the investment-grade assets the fund holds, and how they are an interesting actively managed change-up to more conventional fixed-income funds. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener whose wife wants to buy a new car and who wonders if it ever makes sense to buy new when he could save money on a quality used car.

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, says rate cuts are not a panacea for the housing market, especially because Americans got used to nearly 50 years of declining mortgage rates until they moved from the 3% level up to their 6% range over the last few years. Now — with consumers feeling like they have golden handcuffs in older, low-rate mortgages — Fleming says gains will be slow, because improved affordability will need to be driven by income growth among consumers, and paychecks will have to increase at a rate faster than home-price appreciation to overcome rate concerns.  Dan Wiener, former chairman and chief executive at Adviser Investments (now RWA Wealth Partners) — the long-time editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors — discusses the piece he wrote for Barron's this week, "I Learned the Hard Way: Private Investments Probably Don't Belong in Your Portfolio," and discusses why he thinks that recent law changes that make alternatives more accessible in retirement plans are good for financial companies but bad for consumers. Research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a recent study showing that consumers recognize that it is their spending habits, more than inflation and market conditions, that is behind financial woes. Nearly three-quarters of Americans blame themselves for credit card debt.

Phillip Wool, chief research officer and lead portfolio manager, Rayliant Global Advisors, says "there are places where valuations are so stretched I find it hard to explain," but he notes that is more in certain sectors and certain themes, but he says the global economy is in a good place, which makes him optimistic about the future for stocks, just cautious about how much investors should set expectations. He notes that when valuations get this stretched, future returns tend to be muted. He also discusses why he believes there is still time for investors who have missed the foreign stock rally this year to get involved. "This is not something that has played out," he said, "there's still room for this international outperformance to continue." Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds — who was the first portfolio manager of an Internet fund when they first emerged in the 1990s — talks stocks in the Market Call, but also focuses on the similarities between the artificial intelligence boom that's powering the markets today and the Internet bubble that ended so badly with a market crash in 2000. Plus, Chuck remembers longtime Wall Street Journal columnist and personal finance educator Jonathan Clements of HumbleDollar.com, who passed away over the weekend after a battle with lung cancer. Clements — a long-time contemporary of Chuck's in the personal finance journalism world — was last on the show one year ago today, discussing his diagnosis and leaving behind lasting lessons.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that the market’s earnings power is enough to keep pushing it forward, overcoming obstacles like increased tariff impacts and sticky inflation and leading to an optimistic outlook for next year  while acknowledging the headline risks that have investors’ attention, Mullarkey said that earnings growth could extend to small caps — particularly after government deregulation efforts take hold — to broaden out and extend the current run. David Trainer, president of New Constructs says a recent rally in shares of Snap Inc. doesn’t change bad fundamentals. While Trainer said the company has moved out of “zombie stock” status, it’s still dangerously overvalued and due to resume its fall. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discussed how the market at record levels and imminent rate cuts contributed to bullish sentiment jumping dramatically last week in the latest AAAII Sentiment Survey, with neutral feelings dropping to particularly low levels. Rotblut explained that the low neutral sentiment tends to be more of an indicator — an alarming one — than the spike in positive vibes. Plus, Chuck gives an update on the funds that hackers stole from an online savings account and his efforts to get the money back. 

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says "there's a lot of funky stuff going on in the labor market," and that reduced interest rates may not change conditions but could instead impact the market and contribute to a melt-up that helps the bull market roll on. While melt-ups do tend to be followed by a regression, Yardeni does not see the market reversing too sharply; he's not currently worried about a recession and instead says the current decade is a new Roaring '20s, though he notes that this go-round is unlikely to end in another Great Depression, and instead thinks that current conditions can also turn the next decade into the "Rolling '30s." Jason Brown of The Brown Report — the host of the "Five-Year Millionaire"podcast — says that the technicals are giving him "a lot of reasons to be bullish" without "much to slow it down" on the horizon. That should have investors digging deep on A.I. stocks, especially on any pullbacks or declines, where he says the long-term potential of the new technologies will reward investors who are able to remain patient through volatility. Axel Merk, the head of Merk Investments and the Merk Funds, but also chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals Fund, says there is no real end in sight for the current gold rally, due to the start of rate cuts, a weakening dollar and persistent geopolitical risks, including tariffs. ASA Gold, which invests largely in junior mining companies, is up more than 100 percent year-to-date — compared to roughly 40 percent gains for physical gold ETFs — but still carries a double-digit discount; Merk explains in "The NAVigator" why that unusual situation is logical given current market conditions.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that while stock market valuations look high, "they're not crazy either," because the companies are making money at levels that justify the higher prices. He says he is leaning towards value — and holding cash while waiting for buying pullbacks — and away from the biggest names, noting that the Magnificent Seven stocks are "where the risk is."  He's not expecting a recession, noting that employment is holding and consumer spending is strong, conditions that normally forestall economic downturns. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says the long-awaited rally in small-cap stocks may be in the offing, as he picks a small-cap value fund from VictoryShares as his  "ETF of the Week." Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser, brings his "buy the manager, not the fund" approach to Vanguard's funds and ETFs, but also talks about the areas of a portfolio where investors will want to go outside of the world's biggest fund company to get real complete a well-diversified portfolio.

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says the conditions are increasingly bringing back the spectre of a recession, with the odds of a protracted economic slowdown now standing at about 50 percent. Moreover, he doesn't believe that the widely anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve today will really do anything to alter that course. Blank says that the recession could trigger a stock market sell-off that could cut valuations by more than 40 percent, though he does not think that any such decline will be long-lived. Allison Hadley discusses research she did for NC Solutions which showed that 73% of Americans say little treats are crucial to quality of life; as a result, they're spending an average of $360 a year on $5 indulgences like chocolate, coffee, and candles. Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules brings his trend-following methodology to the Market Call, where he helps to prove the adage that "disagreement makes a market" by coming to the opposite conclusion on a stock covered by John Dorfman of Dorfman Value on yesterday's show.

Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg — a fundamental research firm that focuses on making contrarian natural resource plays — says that the rally in gold is far from over, and that "until it gets to at least the long-term average [of its value relative to the market], you are in an aggressive bull market, an aggressive accumulation phase." That average would take gold to about $8,000 an ounce, meaning the asset has room to double. Rozencwajg also talks oil and why he likes it despite status as "the most hated asset class in the world." Ryan Redfern, chief investment officer at Shadowridge Asset Management, says that correlations are so high that "you stick with the big stuff, the S&P and Nasdaq," rather than diversifying into small-caps and international stocks, which have had occasional runs but which haven't gained long-term edges on the classics. He sees the market as having a "knee-jerk reaction to news" like potential rate cuts this week, but says that sets up the market for a seasonal run into the end of the year. John Dorfman, chairman of Dorfman Value Investments, brings his class price/earnings-driven style to stocks in the Market Call.

It's a wrap on FinCon '25 from Portland, but not before what Chuck describes as the "single best day of interviews [he has] done at any FinCon that Money Life has attended." Here's the lineup:    — Paul Merriman is a long-time financial advisor, author and retirement columnist — he was writing for MarketWatch before Chuck got there in 2003 and still writes for them today — who has watched the transitions that have impacted the investing world over the decades. He gives his take on everything from ETFs versus traditional funds to crypto and much more.    — Paula Pant is the host of "Afford Anything," one of the most influential podcasts in the financial world. She talks about how inflation has impacted people's mindset on what they can afford — and why it shouldn't change your thinking if you have spending in the right place — but also has a unique perspective on America's housing affordability crisis and how consumers should respond to the problem.    — Jessie Jimenez is the founder of Cashtoons.com, where she produces short animated films that cover the investment and money-management basics, but which also get into topics like managing your flexible-spending account or calculating your retirement budget to hone in on a savings target.    — Kanwal Sarai of the Simply Investing Dividends podcast discusses his obsession with dividend-paying stocks, his criteria for buying and selling them — because he is more active in selling than many long-term dividend buyers — and more.    — Joe Saul-Sehy, host of the Stacking Benjamins podcast, puts a bow on the FinCon interviews — as he has done in each of the last three years — talking about the good and bad he sees among content creators in the financial space, the worst interview he has ever done and what makes for good financial talk.

It's the second day of interviews from FinCon '25, the annual event for financial podcasters, bloggers and content creators being held in Portland, Ore., and Chuck is chatting up fintech entrepreneurs, financial coaches, retire-early advocates and much more. Today's show includes:    — Ravi Wadan, the founder of DriveMatch.com, discusses pre-negotiated car leases and the benefits of leasing online.    — Nik Johnson of EverydayMoneyHeroes.com, who talks about overcoming the challenges that keep many families from building generational wealth, and how it is small daily moves or changes have impacts that can last for decades on families.    — Gwen Merz Joiner, the original "fiery millennial," who aggressively scrimped and saved in her 20s to "retire early," only to find herself miserable. The co-host of the FIRE Takes podcast, changed her lifestyle, found happiness and a job she loves, but who is now turning 35 and looking at using the financial groundwork she laid as a cornerstone to answering the question "What's next?"    — Adam Bergman, founder of IRA Financial, who discusses how investors have been using alternative assets from cryptocurrency to real estate to private equity in self-directed IRAs, but who will now find access to those asset classes in their 401(k) plans thanks to recent law changes. He discusses how retirement portfolios have changed as those assets have become more available.    — Plus, Fridays on Money Life start with "The NAVigator," and today John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, sizes up[ the times when an investor might pick (or mix-and-match) owning a closed-end fund versus an ETF or a fund-of-funds that covers the same asset class.

Money Life begins the first of three days of interviews from FinCon 2025, the annual gathering of financial content creators, which this year is in Portland, Ore., and which lets Chuck showcase a wide range of subjects. Today, those subjects include:  — college savings and the changing landscape of consumers paying off college debt with Robert Farrington of TheCollegeInvestor.com.  — crushing medical debt, and an unusual way for consumers to get out from under it with Jared Walker, founder of the non-profit fintech start up Dollar For. — a conversation that Chuck thinks may be the most unusual of his long career with comedian turned financial coach Lauren Baker, who also goes by the    name "Firenze, the friendly FIndom" and whose interview will introduce you to the world of financial domination. — "How Financial Stuff Works," the long-hoped for literacy project of financial adviser Alex Whitehouse. — the changing state of financial content creators, what's dead, what's next and how artificial intelligence will impact it all with FinCon's founder, Philip Taylor of TheCreatorCPA.com. Plus, every Thursday on Money Life starts with the ETF of the Week, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a multi-sector bond fund from a veteran fund manager his pick this week.

 Jillian Johnsrud, the podcaster behind "Retire Often," and the author of a new book out this week that goes by the same title, says that a lot of people mess up their retirement lifestyle by not preparing for it with smaller retirements — lasting a month or more — during their prime working years. Not only do these smaller times allow people to recharge and rejuvenate, they become dry runs for the real thing, allowing pre-retirees to sample ideas and then plan how to execute the best concepts. Johnsrud — who says she has retired at least a dozen times despite only being in her early 40s — says that small retirements are achievable, even by workaholics (like this show's host) with some foresight and planning. Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — longtime publisher of The DRIP Investor newsletter — returns to the show to help Chuck answer a listener's question about how to deal with an inherited portfolio of stocks all held in dividend reinvestment programs. Chip Lupo discusses the 2025 Money and Relationships Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly one in three people think their relationship is limiting their financial growth, with communication (or a lack thereof) being at the heart of the problem. And Chuck starts his interviews from FinCon '25 in Portland, Ore., by chatting with Doug Nordman of MilitaryFinancialIndependence.com, who says that while current events have some military members reconsidering their work choices, that action is appropriate and happens in all times, but it doesn't mean that military families will be abandoning their financial plans even if they change careers before achieving military status that could set them up for life.

Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management — manager of the Ranger Small Cap and Ranger Micro Cap funds — says that smaller companies have suffered as an asset class because corporate earnings have struggled to meet growth expectations. While there is an expectation that small companies will benefit from a cut in interest rates and from deregulation policies from the government, Doenges says in the Market Call that earnings expectations remain muted, so the long awaited rally in small caps could come, but be less than investors have been waiting for. Jeffrey Ptak, managing director at Morningstar Research Services, discusses his recent research into funds that have massive amounts of success to become darlings of the media and of investors, and how they tend to disappoint just after the flood of money comes in. While the results are not surprising, Ptak says it is more than just the typical "regression to the mean" that knocks these hot funds from the ranks of top performers.  Allison Hadley discusses a mid-year tariff survey from Bid-on-Equipment.com which showed that 1 in 5 Americans are stockpiling goods trying to beat price hikes, even though they mostly had to guess on which goods to purchase until tariff policies were firmed up. The survey also showed that nearly 80 percent of consumers are changing their spending habits, mostly by cutting back, which could be a bad sign for the economy moving forward.

David Giroux, chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price — named Morningstar's Outstanding Portfolio Manager for 2025 for his work at T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation — says his allocation fund is holding near its highest levels ever of bonds, specifically intermediate fixed-income, largely because he thinks stocks are overvalued and real growth will remain hard to find. Giroux — who has beaten the average peer in his Morningstar asset class for 17 consecutive years, the longest streak in the entire fund industry — has long disdained investing in foreign stocks and says the rally that 2025 has produced overseas is an anomaly and that no one "should ever feel a need to own an inferior index just for diversification purposes." In the wide-ranging interview, Giroux says that the Magnificent Seven stocks have actually been the Mag 6, plus Tesla, saying that the car maker has no business being in the portfolio of leading securities. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, put Klarna in The Danger Zone in April, when the buy-now, pay-later financial firm was attempting to go public but put off the process in the face of the market's drop after "Liberation Day." Now the company is back attempting an initial public offering, and that brings them back under Trainer's scrutiny again, before they ever get launched as a stock. Natalia Brown, chief consumer affairs and creditor relations officer for National Debt Relief, discusses the firm's survey showing that six in 10 American parents are going into debt for their children. She talks about what parents are foregoing for their own lives to help the kids, and what they are paying for that puts them into debt.

Jim Welsh, author of “Macro Tides” and the “Weekly Technical Review,” says he thinks the stock market "is reaching an inflection point," saying that the next time the Standard & Poor's 500 makes new records but without support from the highs in the advance-decline line, he will take it as a sign that the stock market is about to roll over.  Welsh says that several momentum indicators suggest a short-term decline could be between 3 and 7%, at which point he expects a bounce-back that lasts only until the economic concerns take hold. Welsh says a rise in layoffs would show that the market has gone from mild slowing to something more active, If job growth slows markedly "and we get to a point where the economy starts to meaningfully slow down, that is going to be the trigger for a much deeper and more prolonged decline." That drop, he says, could fulfill a 17-year cycle which would drop the S&P 500 by thousands of points.  Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, says that this is "the best time I have ever seen" in a three-decade career to be investing in energy. Thummel, who manages Tortoise Energy Infrastructure, notes that the U.S. has grown into the largest energy producer and energy exporter in the world; coupled with emerging energy needs caused by the expansion of artificial intelligence, it will drive demand growth "for decades to come." Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services — which publishes the "Best Dividend and Income Investments" newsletter — brings the proprietary Quadrix system and its multi-factor evaluation process to the Money Life Market Call. Plus Allison Hadley discusses a PartnerCentric.com survey which showed that more than 40% of Americans say they're actively reducing social media use in 2025, with nearly 20 percent having already quit at least one app this year as they try to take more control of their personal lives.

The Powerball jackpot that went unclaimed on Wednesday night will top $1.7 billion for its next drawing this weekend, and will mark the 13th time in less than a decade that the big prize has been north of $1 billion. Chuck talks about why jackpots have grown this large, how you might use the lottery as a personal finance tool — even if, like him, you never buy a ticket  and why the odds are never in your favor. In the "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a technology fund that mixes the big names and the tech-adjacent" plays to create an opportunity for investors seeking a growth bost for their portfolio. Natalie Iannello discusses a survey done for FrontDoor which looked at how homeowners were keeping cool under the heat of more extreme water bills this summer. Plus Seth Cogswell, manager of the Running Oak Efficient Growth ETF, brings his disciplined approach to stocks — which focuses at least as much on reasons to sell as it does on opportunities to buy — to the Market Call