Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, says that current markets resemble the dot-com markets in the narrative that everything is about to change due to technological advancements, but he notes that the dominant tech players from the year 2000 failed to beat the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the long-term future. He says that could happen again today with the artificial intelligence stocks, with the technology changing the world but the stocks having a less clear path forward. Arnott notes that the narratives have made the mega caps overvalued and the comparison to the dot-com era could continue with a market downturn, but he sees plenty of opportunities for investors who are willing to pursue deep value and small-cap strategies, as well as liquid alternatives and non-U.S. stocks to "have a decent shot at high single-digit returns" this year. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the exchange-traded version of a classic Fidelity fund his ETF of the Week, and Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management brings his classic growth investing style to the Market Call.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, foresees some slowdown in consumer activity this year — with middle-income consumers beginning to struggle — and he says that will lead to a sluggish economy with higher unemployment. He expects inflation to remain sticky, which will push the Federal Reserve to make fewer rate cuts — he says it's possible they make no rate reductions this year at all — though he does believe the economy can stave off a recession. He reviews his 10 forecasts for the year ahead in The Big Interview. But he's not the only guest gazing into the crystal ball for 2025, as Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about what to expect from interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts over the next 12 months. And in the Market Call, David Allen of the Octane All-Cap Value Energy ETF talks about finding under-the-radar issues in the energy sector.
Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that "the most important thing we're watching is earnings" as an indicator for the year ahead, noting that in 2024 more of the performance came from earnings growth than from multiple expansion, particularly for the parts of the market like large-cap growth companies that had a banner year. While the stock market is still looking for interest rate cuts, Akullian says that earnings can overcome any disappointment that is likely as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate cuts. For the year ahead — and iShares released its outlook for 2025 today — she is expecting modest gains, no recession, and continued struggles for international markets and small-cap stocks. Kim Blanton, who writes the Squared Away blog for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, discusses research which shows that delaying Social Security pays off for couples, but particularly for high-income families who get the best possible outcomes by being patient and who — because of their income — can afford to wait to achieve that outcome. Plus, Chuck answers questions about Morningstar and VettaFi and mutual fund research and ratings.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that 2025 is likely to see the leaders from the last few years move sideways while the rest of the market "can get some more traction and play a little catch-up." He notes that if the market broadens out and those other companies see earnings growth, it can keep the bull market rolling and offset a slowdown in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as the central bank responds to sticky inflation by slowing its pace of rate reductions. Scott Krase, wealth manager at Connor & Gallagher OneSource, makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about ETFs and how they particularly provide access to alternative asset classes in ways that ordinary investors can benefit from in current conditions. Chuck also reviews what he has long called his "change experiment," where he saves all of his cash below $10 bills, and how much that added up to not just in 2024 but since he started doing it in 2020.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that 2024 proved most pundits wrong, as they forecast years that were much more modest than the 25 percent that the stock market gained, with more economic struggles and more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. His forecasts, however, proved mostly right, as he reviews 2024 in today's Big Interview. Speaking of a review of the year just finished, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — looks back at the prognostications for the closed-end fund industry that he made a year ago and how the data now shows nearly all of them to have been correct. And as for prognostications, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, makes a big one in the Market Call when he says that the cycles that have favored large-caps over small stocks are now long in the tooth, which is why he is expecting small-caps to outperform over the next 15 years.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says 2025 will finish up a positive year, but it will likely be a year of single-digit gains that will be a struggle to achieve because the market is starting the year with stretched valuations and other headwinds. While he doesn't see a recession in the offing, Stovall sees other conditions making the market sluggish, ranging from the presidential cycle to the regular run of a bull market and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the big stories in the exchange-traded fund business from 2024 and how some of those issues will keep playing out for ETFs and investors in the new year. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund discusses business-centric, long-term investing.
Jim Lee, founder at StratFi, says investors can be "reasonably optimistic" about the first half of 2025, but says that by the time June rolls around "I'd start to get careful." Among the technical indicators Lee leans on is the "Kitchin Cycle," which runs 180 weeks (or three and a half years) and has a solid record over the last century, and the cycle is showing a market peak at the start of March in 2025. Less says the market has the momentum to keep rolling, but not too far past that peak in the Kitchin Cycle. Also on the show, Dana Miranda of the Healthy Rich newsletter discusses her new book, “You Don’t Need a Budget: Stop Worrying About Debt, Spend Without Shame and Manage Money with Ease,” Rita Assaf discusses the annual Financial Resolutions Study out from Fidelity, which showed a strong desire for "a year of living practically" in 2025, and Chuck discusses ways to measure the success of 2024, and how it fits into the big picture of both the market and of our personal lives.
Whether it is making resolutions, setting goals or establishing targets, Chuck has tried every kind of plan for financial self-improvement over his decades as a personal finance journalist, and today he talks about the importance of having a system that helps you focus on making progress and how to set yourself up to end 2025 better off than you are now. Also on the show, author Steven Foerster discusses his latest book, "Trailblazers, Heroes & Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor," and Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA Research talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the real story in cryptocurrency in 2024 has not been the massive gains in Bitcoin -- which is up about 120 percent year-to-date -- but the way the business has matured, adding crypto ETFs from some of Wall Street's biggest firms. Coupled with the new administration, which is crypto-friendly, it makes Hougan more positive about his outlook for the future, which he says includes plenty of room for crypto to run higher in 2025. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, digs into his mountain of data to divine the stories he anticipates to be central to the closed-end fund landscape in the new year, and also delivers the names of five funds that he thinks are poised for breakout performances. Plus, financial adviser Patti Brennan helps answer the big question most investors want to know for the new year and beyond, as she discusses her new book, “Am I Going to Be Okay? Timely Intelligence, Actionable Ideas, Answers to the Questions that Really Matter.”
Teralyn Pilgrim, author of "No Scrap Left Behind: My Life Without Food Waste," says that Americans are wasting significant dollars each month, simply with how they buy and use their groceries. She's not preaching radical lifestyle change as much is simply trying to plan and use food purchases efficiently to reduce or eliminate food waste. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year that was for ETFs; Kevin Roth, head of research for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the group's annual Debt and New Year's Resolution Report, which clearly shows that finances play a big role in New Year's resolutions. Plus,Sam Fleming, co-founder / chief technology officer at Moat Metrics, brings his firm's methods into focus in the Money Life Market Call.
Avi Gilburt, founder of Elliott Wave Trader, says the market is in the final throes of a bull market that has been in place for nearly a century, noting that while there may be one more high or buying opportunity before things are exhausted, he sees the market turning in the next few months, noting that the Standard & Poor's 500 decisively breaking the 5400 support level would be a sign that a bear market has begun. Then, Daniel Crosby, host of the Standard Deviations Podcast, discusses his new book, "The Soul of Wealth: 50 reflections on money and meaning;" After that, Allison Hadley talks about a new CardRates.com study showing that nearly half of Americans expect to return 1-3 gifts this holiday season. And in the Market Call, Scott Martindale, chief executive at Sabrient Systems, talks about picking "high performance stock portfolios," using the methods of Sabrient's founder, David Brown, who recently released a book on building a portfolio based on high-octane stocks.
Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group, says investors who are worried about the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates as much as previously expected are missing the idea that it's a sign of a solid backdrop for economic growth. She notes that the market and investors "crave the sugar high from more policy accommodations," and are overlooking the potential for the market to move forward in 2025. "We're not going to put up the same kind of returns we did in the last two years," Agati says, "but I think the market can grow at a pace that aligns with earnings growth;" she says earnings could grow at a pace of 10 to 15 percent year over year. Financial adviser Harmon Kong, discusses his new book, "Values Over Valuables: Daring to Live the Life Money Can't Buy" and — speaking of what money can't buy — Melissa Stephenson discusses a Solitaire Bliss study which showed that many Americans are unable to afford travel and time off, making finances a big part of why many Americans will celebrate the holidays alone this year. Plus, Cynthia McLaughlin, investment editor at AAII — lead editor at VMQ Stocks — talks about value, momentum and quality investing in the Money Life Market Call.
Mary Ellen Stanek, chief investment officer at Baird Advisors — president of the Baird Funds — says that the need to slow interest rate cuts has been building for a while, but that it's a sign of a strong economy and it's good for bond investors, without taking all of the starch out of the stock market. She says this week's news from the Federal Reserve about slowing cuts doesn't change Baird's forecast for 2025, noting that they expected good values in bonds through the new year and that those yields only got better with the latest announcement from the central bank. Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Financial Services Group, discusses the wild rate of inflation seen in the firm's 41st annual Christmas Price Index, which this year showed that the cost of buying your true love the gifts from the 12 Days of Christmas would set you back nearly $50,000. Bryan Piccirillo discusses an Edward Jones survey which showed that 81 percent of Americans are confident in their ability to keep their financial resolutions — the big ones being building a savings account, paying off credit card debt and increasing income — despite the terrible success rate that resolutions normally have. Plus, Ken Burdon, a partner in the registered funds practice at Simpson Thacher and Bartlett, discusses how the return of President Donald Trump might benefit closed-end funds.
Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, sees the market as being due for a big correction after an "amazing move" over the last two years, but he also sees the market beginning a new era of capital innovation and creativity that will help to push the market back to new heights over the next few years. He notes that artificial intelligence will keep leading the way higher, though he says he typically prefers the AI-adjacent companies to the direct players in the space. He also discusses gold, crypto and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to double down on the winners of the Nasdaq Composite with his pick for ETF of the Week, and Peter Schneider, president of Primerica, discusses the firm's latest Financial Security Monitor, which showed that recent gains in purchasing power don't have middle-income families feeling any better about their personal finances. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds, talks technology stocks and where the next round of AI winners might come from.
Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that the current stock market reminds him of the late 1990s -- with a super strong dollar, a few stocks driving the market while the others are mediocre, where the American market and economy are exceptional and more -- but as economic seasons changed, it was the rest of the market that thrived. That's what he sees happening again now, so he is preaching diversification, especially toward small-cap stocks but also with international investments and commodities, as a way of growing and protecting a portfolio in 2025. In The Book Interview, financial columnist and historian Rodney Brooks discusses “The Rise and Fall of the Freedman’s Savings Bank and It’s Lasting Socio-Economic Impact on Black America,” and Eric Schoenstein, portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Jensen Investment Management discusses quality investing in The Market Call.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that the market is about 25 percent overvalued, but the momentum of the market suggests that investors shouldn't worry about an immediate downturn. Ablin says that traditional value metrics show the overvaluation and says that lofty prices eventually meet up with momentum that gets exhausted, leading to "a pretty good exit point." But he notes that "Value is always early," and there "still a lot more room" for the market to run before it rolls over. In the Talking Technicals segment, Gene Peroni, founder of Peroni Portfolio Advisors, also sees the market's potential for downturn, but he says that the market has effectively ignored Wall Street adages, cyclical and seasonal factors, psychological considerations and has moved to its own beat, with a strong technical foundation that should enable it to weather storms and turn any potential downturns into buying opportunities. In the Money Life Market Call, Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager at Seven Canyons Advisors, talks high-growth small-cap international/emerging markets stocks.
Disagreement makes a market, and the market on Robinhood Markets was wide open on this show as David Trainer of New Constructs put the stock in The Danger Zone, but Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, made the stock a "buy" during "Quick and Dirty" in the Money Life Market Call. Also on the show, Paula Fleming of the Better Business Bureau of Eastern Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont talks about personalization scams — where people are being ripped off in multiple ways while buying personalized gifts for the holidays — and discusses how to avoid holiday frauds. Plus, Lauren FitzHugh, vice president of growth at Fruition — Money Life's newest sponsor — discusses the benefits of having all of your investment, bank and spending accounts linked together in one place, and the peace of mind that comes with better control of your finances.
Despite headlines that have dominated the news stating concerns about the stock market and its ability to keep thriving under a new political administration, Mick Heyman, founder of Heyman Investment Counseling, doesn't see the warning signs of a terrible market. "Close your eyes, it's fear of heights, and just let the long-term trend continue on," Heyman said. He is not the only one who sees little trouble evident on the horizon, as Vuk Vuković, chief investment officer at Oraclum Capital, sees the economy being able to avoid a recession throughout 2025. Ravi Chintapalli from the Global Fixed Income team at Nuveen, says in The NAVigator that structural changes have made the junk bond market stronger, while reducing default risk; as a result, yields of 7 percent should be normal and comfortable in 2025. Plus Mac Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli talks financial stocks in the Market Call.
Ben Harburg, founder of CoreValues Alpha — manager of the firm's Greater China Growth ETF — says that consumers in China have over $21 trillion in household savings sitting on the shelf and that as that money starts to be spent, it will drive the Chinese market to a long recovery. That should be happening at a time when Chinese stocks "are near rock bottom" but U.S. equities have been running to record highs, making China a good diversifier for American investors looking for protection against a setback here. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a free cash-flow ETF that opened in 2023 and that has risen to the top of its large-cap value peer group this year as his ETF of the Week. In the Market Call, Noland chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management, returns to the show to discuss his version of growth investing; one area he particularly likes now is the big cruise companies.
Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. — one of the longest-tenured and most decorated bond fund managers in history — says that the Federal Reserve has done its job and managed to avoid most of the trouble that observers feared was coming. Moreover, it has positioned the economy and the bond market to keep humming along. Yet Fuss also singles out several factors, including climate change and geo-politics, that are not usually factors in bond investing that are having a big impact on bond investing now. WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo discusses the site's research on the best and most-popular gift cards for the holiday season, and Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds, talks in the Market Call about how he practices deep-value investing at a time when the market is at record-high levels.
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