The episode brings Sir Patrick Sanders, a British military officer, back to discuss geopolitical issues, specifically focusing on the precarious state of global affairs today compared to the 1930s. The conversation delves into the complexities surrounding Donald Trump's foreign policy perceptions and Norway SWF's approach to defence sector exclusions. This episode was recorded in Norway at the Grieg Conference, organized by Grieg Investor. They’re an independent investment adviser for institutional investors in Norway representing over 170 clients, and part of the Grieg Group. Sir Patrick elaborates on Trump's stance towards Russia, emphasizing Trump's unpredictable yet impactful actions, such as his claim of ending the Ukrainian war swiftly—a stance deemed as 'magical realism.' Furthermore, the dialogue explores Trump's potential impact on Middle Eastern politics, highlighting challenges like balancing Israeli interests and Iran's geopolitical maneuvers without igniting broader conflicts. As the conversation transitions, China's influence and the West's strategy against a backdrop of escalating global competition are scrutinized, touching upon key ideologies in play. The podcast episode draws attention to urgent strategic choices required by Western nations, navigating the significant challenges posed by the geopolitical landscape amidst technological advances. Insights on investment implications arising from these geopolitical tensions, such as defense and AI sectors, are also discussed by Sir Patrick and Simon.
Technological revolutions are by their nature rare events: the printing press, mobile telephony and the internet. The associated excitement can capture the imagination, spur a raft of associated breakthroughs, encourage investors to dream of extraordinary returns, yet their byproduct is often to create excessive short-term exuberance, and expectations that might be correct in time, but invariably expect too much, too soon. Scott Guthrie understands this space better than most, being a Microsoft lifer who has been at the epicentre of their success in Cloud and now AI, overseeing the development of both the Azure and Copilot products. Alongside Simon, the discussion is co-hosted by Rob Rooney. Rob is the former CEO of Morgan Stanley International and was their Global Head of Technology and Operations. He now runs two fintech firms: HyperJar and Hyperlayer. Scott begins by explaining why investors & business alike should look beyond the typical 1-2 year timelines used in common AI narratives, and instead examine the potential 5-10 year outlook for the technology. He then shares some practical examples of how AI may cut costs & boost productivity for finance firms, why they’ve partnered with LSEG, and their reasons for building a staggering 500 new data centres globally! In the wide ranging interview recorded at the LSEG Tech Leaders Summit ,he covers the central questions surrounding AI: Is it really a new game changer? How will it play out? Will regulation stifle or stimulate progress? How does it recalibrate productivity? Do we even have the electricity to support it? And how is AI being integrated into the burgeoning cloud industry? The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored bySchroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. We’re pleased to now announce our fourth sponsor: LSEG! Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Four years ago we had the chance to record a US election special ahead of the vote to determine whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump became President. We welcomed Anthony Scaramucci; Harvard Law, Goldman Sachs, political fundraiser and, for 11 dramatic days, Donald Trump‘s Director of Communications. Since then he has developed his finance business, run the SALT conferences, been a crypto evangelist and in addition - possibly inspired by his experience on the Money Maze Podcast - has become the co-host of the Rest is Politics US with Katy Kay (a high quality show which we recommend). In this conversation he discusses Trump, including some candid thoughts on his character and what may lie ahead if he wins. He then assesses the question of immigration, and if this election “will decide whether we continue to lead on freedom, economic innovation and multilateralism”. He assesses why crypto should rise tenfold, how the debt challenge could be addressed, how he has managed setbacks and what resilience means to him, all with a ton of energy! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council.
This recording took place at the London Value Investor Conference over summer, where Simon hosted a discussion with Joel Greenblatt. Joel not only founded and runs Gotham Asset Management, but was also an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School for 20+ years. Joel previously ran Gotham Capital, where he achieved 50% annualised returns between 1985-1994 (34.4% net). Joel also helped Michael Burry set up Scion Capital in 2000. In this discussion, Joel offers some exceptionally valuable insights into the issues of active versus passive, if valuation works pays, the need for patience, thoughts on concentration, and learning from mistakes. He talks on the need for detailed valuation work in order to identify compelling valuation opportunities, but also of the need for patience for the market to recognise such situations. He advocates passive for those ill-equipped to undertake detailed valuation work, and also recognises the challenges of owning too many overvalued and insufficient undervalued companies when you are passively invested. He then explains how the best way to learn from one’s investing mistakes is to lose amounts of money that matter. Joel goes on to acknowledge that he would have been fired several times over, had it not been his own firm! A treasure trove of advice from a pro! The interview is followed by a short Q&A. Thanks to the following for their contributions here: Steve Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet, Mark Rubenstein of HPS Investment Partners, Ajit Dayal of Quantum Advisors India, and Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Today we travel back to Melbourne, Australia, having had previous conversations with Ben Samild (now CIO of the AFF) & David Neal (CEO of IFM Investors). AustralianSuper, Australia’s largest super fund, manages approximately USD $230bn for 3.4m members. Mark Delaney has been at its helm as CIO for almost 20 years. Mark describes the goals, the organisation and its investment principles. He explains why Australia consolidated its pension industry and the benefits it has reaped for pensioners and the economy. He discusses approaching global equities, why infrastructure is the “ballast in the boat”, his favourable view of private equity and why he likes active over passive. He also covers how he accesses commodity exposure, and why you can’t worry about the markets when he’s on his surfboard trying to catch a wave! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Sovereign wealth funds, private equity, Hollywood actors; the world of sports has been undergoing an investing revolution. The last few years have seen a quantum increase of new investors, investing both in sports and even their governing bodies, raising questions about potential returns, the investment thesis and competition. Arctos is one of world’s largest sports investors, counting amongst its investments, with 20+ portfolio companies, including: Baseball’s Boston Red Sox, Liverpool FC, Paris St. Germain, Atalanta, New York Giants, and recently Aston Martin’s F1 racing team. In this episode, Ian Charles, trained in the world of illiquid private investments and secondaries, discusses the size of the market, the investment logic, competition, regulation, building the brand, using data as well as exits and returns! From North American leagues to European football, he assesses the barriers to entry, the ability for growth capital to raise growth rates, historic returns, minority stakes, and how the fans impacted by these epochal changes. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
In an interview we had especially looked forward to, and with the Credit Suisse acquisition behind us, the MMP went to Zurich to talk to Colm Kelleher. Described as one of the most influential and capable banking executives of the last several decades, he has been dubbed by the FT as 'Europe’s most powerful banker'. As Chairman of the UBS board, he helps manage an organisation with approximately $5.7 trillion in assets, employing 112,000 people. After discussing the early forces that shaped him, he explains why he realised US banks were better placed to outgun their UK rivals, why he joined Morgan Stanley, and the journey to CFO and President. He discusses the brutal intensity of fighting to keep Morgan Stanley alive from following Lehman, and the emotional scars it left. Colm describes the attraction of UBS, the preparation that made the Credit Suisse deal work in such an orderly manner as well as the business, the brand, and its position today. He explains what culture means to him, Europe’s position in financial services, disintermediation, and the likely shape of banking going forward and why banks shouldn’t seek to be entrepreneurial. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Thought-provoking, amusing, self-critical, rich with anecdotes, laced with good advice, and large servings of humility, you might not automatically assume I’m describing the book, titled 'On Leadership', just published and written by Sir Tony Blair. The discussion starts with the essential need for a leader to identify the priorities, to determine the plan, and to pursue its execution. Sir Tony Blair discusses meeting roadblocks and responses, and why the leader must stay resolute. He then opines on international affairs today; including thoughts on China, India, Russia and the Middle East. He covers higher education, lessons from Singapore’s ‘economic miracle’, and the challenges of immigration. He shares perspectives from the Tony Blair Institute, which today advises over 40 countries, how technology can promote major leaps forward, reasons for optimism, why humility is key and why there’s no substitute for hard work! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Simon introduces Cliff Asness, Co-Founder and CIO of AQR (Applied Quantitative Research), highlighting the firm's systematic approach to investing in a variety of assets. Cliff Asness shared his background, mentioning that he was initially an underachiever in school but transitioned to a highly driven person during college at the University of Pennsylvania. He explained that market efficiency is a spectrum, and even Fama admitted that markets are not perfectly efficient, despite what many might assume. Discussing current markets, Asness emphasized the importance of global diversification and noted that the U.S.'s prolonged outperformance mostly stemmed from its increasing valuation premium over international markets. He highlighted "volatility laundering" in private assets, where the infrequent marking of private investments creates an illusion of lower volatility, cautioning that this could lead to misinformed investment decisions. Asness touched on philanthropy, saying he finds joy in charitable giving despite the difficulty in assessing the best use of funds and mentioned the importance of concentrating philanthropy for more impact. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
In this episode we have the huge pleasure and privilege to talk to General Sir Patrick Sanders, who until June of this year served as Chief of the General Staff. As the professional head of the British Army he had responsibility for over 100,000 troops (including reserves), steering this key component of the UK’s defence apparatus through an increasingly fractured world. The mission in this interview is to orchestrate a rapid and highly effective tour of the key challenges on the minds of politicians, populations and the planet. Patrick discusses Russia and assessing what next, China and how a peaceful co-existence can operate, as well as Iran, Israel & The Middle East; weighing up if a brighter future here is possible. He then covers North Korea and its unpredictability, as it moves from defense to offense. The General goes on to enlighten us on cyber threats, AI’s role on the battlefield, leadership & motivation, before answering some challenging questions from his peers and (possible) friends! General Sanders joins a wider squadron of Money Maze Podcast geopolitics speakers, such as General Petraeus, General Sir Nick Carter & Lieutenant General Sir Tom Beckett! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders,IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
This episode comes from the SuperReturn conference in Berlin, with guest Victor Khosla, Founder of SVP. Set up in 2001, the firm manages $18 billion in credit, with an impressive long-term track record in identifying credit opportunities. Victor describes himself as the ‘Accidental Investor’, initially hired as a strategic consultant for a Citibank project in the 1990s, only then to join them to help develop their credit business. He recaps his journey from India through Citi, Cerberus, and Moore Capital, before founding his business with the assisted funding from Moore Capital, to identify and buy out-of-favour debt instruments whether distressed or mispriced. Victor describes today’s markets, the differences between the US and Europe, opportunities that are emerging from private equity indigestion and reduced exits, allied to significant refinancing needs. As the owner of Swissport, the world’s largest baggage handler, he recounts their post-COVID purchase and the debt/equity swap, and where ownership of the debt in this - and many other instances - means a further need for involvement on the business operations side. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
If you write a widely followed weekly piece for nearly 30 years, assessing investment risks & rewards, geopolitical implications, and extracting signals from noise, you need experience, good instincts, market nous, and the ability to talk to the right people. The weekly piece in question is GREED & FEAR, and its author, our guest Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy for Jefferies, in Hong Kong. He has been ranked No. 1 Equity Strategist in the Asia Money Polls 18 times since 1996, and prior to that worked for The Economist between 1984 to 1994, during which period he was both the New York and Tokyo Bureau Chief. We begin with Chris’s interpretation of China’s ambitions and appetite, where he explains why he sees China as less set on making territorial gains. He discusses the tectonic shifts underway which he describes as “as great as the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991… and which are driving global military spending to record highs.” He also covers Japan, the Yen & bond yields, widening the discussion to explain why he wants to avoid all G7 Government bonds. He goes on to explain why he thinks good quality US Corporates will trade with lower yields than US Government bonds as their risk is lower. He assesses the opportunity in EM debt, and their greater adherence to orthodox monetary policy. He also explains how both gold and bitcoin feature in his long term endowment portfolio. Recorded in June 2024. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
In this shorter interview, recorded at Berlin SuperReturn, Rachel Arnold, Co-Head of Vista’s Endeavour strategy, a fund focused on small-cap private software companies, offers insights that echo Bill Gates comment that “software is the magic thing whose importance only goes up over time” Amazingly, over 90% of software companies are private, and as a former tech operator and CEO, Rachel brings hard-earned expertise to explain their investing approach. She discusses portfolio make up, the drivers behind software’s growth and how they assist their portfolio companies on operational transformation. She discusses the urgency and applications resulting from AI’s adoption, the likely trajectory of this investing space, software’s economic resilience and the runway ahead. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
If you wrote a business plan in the 1990s that was way ahead of its time - a 20th century idea that needed 21st century technology to work - then put it aside and instead built an enterprise software firm that achieved a Goldman Sachs backed blockbuster IPO in 1999, you might say “bravo”. If then, several years later you return to this earlier idea, build it and today have over 100 million athletes in 195 countries using it, you’ll know why we’re exceptionally excited about this conversation! Mike has helped grow Strava into one of the world’s leading activity tracking apps, employing about 400 people and achieving a valuation of approximately $1.5bn (as of its last funding round in 2020). The seeds of Strava were planted during Mike’s time as captain of the Harvard rowing team, which helped him develop an appreciation of the benefits of sport, both personally & professionally. Mike then earned a PhD at Harvard, before becoming an economics professor at Stanford and Dartmouth (and along the way he was also a CFO of a biotech firm). In this longer-than-usual interview, Michael discusses what it takes to build a brand. He explains why they went “an inch wide and a mile deep” and why it’s best to “listen to your customers, not your investors”. He also shares how he’s confronted setbacks, concentrating on excellence over growth, why they’ve stayed private, and why patience, persistence and perspective are central ingredients for success. One of my favourite interviews! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Rob Arnott has published over 100 academic papers, co-authored several books, and his firm Research Affiliates developed the strategies behind approximately $147bn in AUM (as of March 2024). He has earned a reputation as a highly respected, value-orientated investor with clarity about unrealistic valuations, mean-reversion and where the investment opportunities may lie. In this interview he shares a timely analysis of Nvidia, which achieved a valuation of over $3tn last week (surpassing Microsoft as the world’s most valuable business). We thought it was timely to listen to his perspectives given today’s highly skewed, AI obsessed, passive-besotted investing world! Rob describes his approach to evaluating risks and returns, why he believes the US current fiscal path is unsustainable, and how his firm, Research Affiliates, have developed indices to allow investors to access more compelling opportunities. He unpicks his view as to why narratives around much-loved tech companies may already be reflected in their share prices, why the value opportunities are profound, especially outside of the US and particularly in emerging markets. Furthermore, he points out the disconnect between unloved value stocks and their underlying businesses (which have often been performing just fine). Rob also discusses portfolio allocations today, building resilience in your portfolio to allow for geopolitical turbulence, and the asymmetry of owning US inflation-linked Treasuries (TIPS) vs straight treasuries. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube | *CNBC, June 2024
In a world where competitive survival has become rarer, one UK retail institution has survived for 175 years, remains a trusted brand, with over 50,000 employees, 2,000 stores and 4,000 pharmacists. Today Boots is part of the US Walgreens Boots Alliance, an entity with sales of $140 billion (2023/24) and one of the world’s largest purchasers of prescription drugs. In this episode we aim to explore the future of retail, the big drivers of change, the overload of the health systems, how pharmacies may play a vital role, technology, data, and what customers really want. Seb James also discusses the demise of the department store, increasing specialisation, how data allows for tailoring of customer preferences and what AI might offer. He goes on to cover the notable rise in theft since COVID-19, the decline of the UK High Street, and how they’re competing with both the US tech giants and China-affiliated e-commerce challengers. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Whether you’re a believer in the timelines, or sceptical about its urgency, the energy transition is underway, and its ramifications are immense. Both for the climate and for investors, the new order is challenging the old. In this conversation, Per Lekander, a veteran of the energy and utility space, discusses the failings of the wind and solar industries but also the opportunities which exist for investment. He evaluates competing energy sources, the rising temperature challenge, the runway ahead for electrification and the changes ahead for autos. He expands on his negative view on Tesla, why Mercedes has such a technological edge, changes in battery technology and how he navigates the long and short worlds in his funds. Clean Energy Transition LLP is a thematic alternative investment management firm focused on fundamental equity investing across global long/short and long only investment strategies. Its funds were first launched by Partner, Portfolio Manager and CEO, Per Lekander, at Lansdowne Partners (UK) LLP in 2015. Today, the Firm manages c. US$2.7bn in assets for a diversified institutional client base, seeking to capitalise on the transformational changes occurring in the global energy sector, with a primary goal of delivering superior risk-adjusted returns. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube | *McKinsey Report, 2022
In this interview, we welcome the CEO of Novo Holdings, which manages the assets and wealth of the Novo Nordisk Foundation, one of the world’s largest enterprise foundations. Novo Holdings is part of the Novo Group, which also incorporates Novo Nordisk and Novonesis (who combined are responsible for much of Novo Holdings’ inflows). Novo Nordisk is a leading global healthcare company, founded in 1923 and headquartered in Denmark. Their purpose is to drive change to defeat serious chronic diseases, built upon their heritage in diabetes. Novonesis, also part of Novo Group, serves 130 markets with enzymatic, microbial and advanced protein solutions. As of year-end 2023, Novo Holdings had total assets under management of €149bn (DKK 1,114 bn). In addition to managing a broad portfolio of equities, bonds & other assets, it also has a substantial allocation into life sciences. In this illuminating discussion, Kasim shares Novo Holding’s asset allocation, their corporate structure, the European regulatory context, their long term mission and the importance of the foundation’s life-saving work. Kasim also covers balancing disbursements to the Novo Nordisk Foundation & re-investment in the fund, some criteria for working with external managers, their engaged ownership approach (especially in life sciences) and why they’re comfortable as a public firm. He also discusses the challenge of increasing antibiotic resistance, how biology is assisting in the green transition and the breathtaking development of medical research (including the revolutionary role of AI in diagnostics). The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
Research demonstrates that diverse companies outperform their less diverse peers. The 30% Club’s mission, led by Chairs and CEOs, is to increase gender diversity at board and executive committee levels. In this episode, current 30% Club Global Chair Hanneke Smits, assesses the shifts underway to increase female representation across the corporate landscape, why PE lags public investing in this regard and what still needs to be done. She also reflects on working in both PE and public markets, the future trajectory of passive & active, and the challenges each presents to investors. She then discusses the qualities needed as a leader and mentor, including the difference between “being liked and being respected”. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
If you were asked ‘What is the London Stock Exchange Group, (LSEG)?’, most investors would answer, ‘the London Stock Exchange, of course.’ Yet, the correct answer would be, “well that’s only 5% of revenues today”, and then you might pause and wonder what the rest is… In this conversation with David Schwimmer, a veteran of Goldman Sachs, and CEO of the LSEG since 2018, we examine an organisation that today has revenues of £8bn, an operating income of £2.8bn and a market capitalisation of approximately £50bn. LSEG is the 14th largest company in the UK, employing 25,000 people in 70 countries, and is now 4% owned by Microsoft (as of May 2024). David explains the LSEG business today, how they are the no.1 globally in real time financial data, how they serve customers in areas from risk-analytics, FX, bond trading, KYC, ALM verification. He discusses the partnership with Microsoft, and the rapid shifts in technology, as well as their impact on business execution and enhancing productivity. Finally we have an earnest conversation about the UK, which has the second largest pension market in the world, London’s enviable position, and why persistent negative press around delisting may have created a stronger narrative than the facts would suggest. The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors and the World Gold Council. Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube
JAMES
Way too cosy an interview; if you can't ask more insightful questions it just turns into an interview of your friends. Great for you but not very insightful for us!