Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

The Inside Economics podcast welcomes Jason Dorsey to talk about the generations that characterize the American population. The conversation takes up what event(s) define each generation, from 9/11 for the Millennials to COVID for Gen Z, and then turns to each generation’s traits and behaviors. The podcast was generationally well-balanced, with Mark the aging Boomer, Marisa and Cris the skeptical Xers, and Jason the creative Millennial.  Guest: Jason Dorsey - President of Cener for Generational KineticsFor more on Jason Dorsey: LinkedIn: @JasonDorsey Instagram: @Jason_Dorsey The Center for Generational Kinetics   JasonDorsey.com  Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn   

As long as inflation remains above the Fed’s target, and the Fed maintains its higher for longer interest rate policy in response, it is premature to conclude the economy has soft-landed. This episode is a replay of the “Stubborn Inflation, Reluctant Fed” webinar hosted by Chief Economist Mark Zandi and team, as they discuss what it will take for inflation to abate, the Fed to ease, and the economy to soft-land, and what could derail this. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Matt and Marisa join Mark, who called in from an undisclosed location, to discuss this week’s CPI report and FOMC meeting on interest rates. They all agree that the CPI numbers were unambiguously positive and that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates this fall. They play the statistics game, made more difficult by the dearth of economic releases so far this week, and take a few listener questions related to inflation/deflation, OER, and the Fed. For a deeper dive on inflation and how it's measured, check out the bonus episode--a replay of a webinar hosted by Mark, Cris and Marisa on inflation and the Fed. Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

In a rare Saturday morning taping of the podcast, Dante and Matt join Mark (where’s Cris and Marisa?) to disentangle the considerable crosscurrents in the May jobs report.  Surging immigration is complicating interpretation of the numbers. Next week’s all-important report on consumer price inflation was also the fodder of discussion, as was Mark’s Washington Post op-ed arguing the Fed should cut rates. Guest Hosts: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's Analytics, Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Mark, Marisa, and Cris are joined by their colleague Matt Colyar as they delve into the resilience of the U.S. economy. Matt kicks off the conversation with a rundown of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and its implications for monetary policy. Following a brief, engaging Stats Game, the team explores the reasons behind the U.S. economy's rapid and robust recovery compared to the rest of the world. The discussion concludes with answers to audience questions, focusing on the implications of quantitative easing/tightening and the predictive power of the yield curve. Guests: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Economist - Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. For more on Jonthan Smoke Click here

Stock prices, house values, and even gold and crypto prices have never been higher.  The team discuss the reasons why, whether it is a bubble, where prices are headed and what it all means for consumers and the broader economy.  They also play the game and take listener questions.  Keep them coming dear listener.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn .

Jonathan Smoke from Cox Automotive and Mike Brisson of Moody’s join the crew for a discussion of inflation and autos. The team dissects this week’s CPI report, which while not great, at least wasn’t worse than expected. Mark argues that the Fed should be looking through the inflation data that’s mixed up with the problematic measures of housing inflation and start lowering rates immediately. The team is mostly on board with this view although Mike convincingly argues that it may be better for the Fed to be “credibly wrong” than incredibly right.  Guests: Jonathan Smoke – Chief Economist, Cox Automotive, Michael Brisson – Director, Moody’s AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. For more on Jonthan Smoke Click here Related Research: The article referenced in today’s episode Lags and measurement issues with OER is available on Economic View: Real Time. The Economic View-Real Time information service is the single web-based source that covers the global economy and financial markets around the clock. The service provides real-time analysis of key economic and financial market developments along with analysis of more than 250 economic releases. Economic View enables users to easily access data, analysis of economic events, trends and risks. Read Full Analysis With A Free 14-Day Trial.   

The Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Chris Lafakis along with Trevor Houser from the Energy & Climate practice at Rhodium Group for a discussion on how the Inflation Reduction Act promotes the U.S.'s transition to green energy. Podcast host Mark Zandi kicks things off with a quick overview of recent economic developments. The conversation then shifts to a discussion of the IRA’s incentives and tax provisions. Following a brief statistics game, the group explores the potential impact of the upcoming election on the green energy transition.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to discuss the April jobs report. It was something of a surprise, but a happy one, at least for Dante and Mark.  The job market remains strong, but is cooling, opening the window just a bit for the Fed to begin cutting rates. But Cris and Marisa weren’t so sure, worried that the report may signal the start of a more serious slowdown.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The Inside Economics team is down a regular with Cris on the road, but two Moody’s Analytics colleagues, Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz, try to fill the void. Mark and Marisa recap a busy week by talking about GDP, inflation, and even Fed independence. The discussion of domestic migration features a healthy dose of Philadelphia homer-ism, and the team talks about the implications of the recent surge in immigration, along with plans for new population estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Deputy Chief Economist at Cushman Wakefield, Rebecca Rockey, joins the Inside Economics crew to talk about the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy in general. After unpacking the week’s economic events and a quick primer on outrigger canoe paddling, Rebecca walks the IE team through the different segments of CRE and how they’re faring. Mark goes through a “what’s bugging me about CRE” list but Marisa can only see the bright side. Finally, Rebecca and Cris discuss their views on the possibility of a CRE doom loop.  For more on Rebecca Rockey: Click HereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The disappointing March report on consumer price inflation is the fodder for this week’s Inside Economics podcast. The team considers just how big of a disappointment it was, and conclude it turns on second and third significant digits. Yes, that’s what it has come to when assessing just when Fed officials will feel sufficiently confident that inflation is headed back to their target and begin to cut rates. Of course, there are threats to the inflation outlook, most immediate being higher oil prices, which the group takes up. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Moody’s Analytics colleagues Elise Burton, Dawn Holland and Olia Kuranova join the podcast this week to discuss global female labor force participation and how it has changed since the pandemic. They identify a few key reasons for the recent narrowing of gender participation gaps, explore the economic impact of increased female participation, and discuss ways in which policymakers could encourage more women to join the labor force.To read more on the gender participation gap: Click HereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The March 2024 jobs report was picture perfect. Cris thought he had found a blemish in the numbers, but on closer inspection, not so much. Dante and Marisa explained how the economy could create so many jobs without fanning wage and price pressures. Think foreign immigration. And like stock investors, Mark found plenty to like in the report.  Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The Inside Economics team is joined by their Moody's Analytics colleagues, Mike Brisson and Steve Cochrane, to discuss the economic fallout from the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the subsequent closure of the Port of Baltimore.  Mark Zandi kicks off the show with a rundown of the latest economic data and a healthy debate on the state of household finances ensues.  The statistics game proves challenging even with Marisa providing an important hint.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Heidi Shierholz, President of the Economic Policy Institute, joins the podcast to discuss the ongoing skewing of the income distribution. There’s a lengthy list of reasons why more of the economic pie is going to those in the top of the distribution, from less unionization and lax enforcement of labor laws, but you would be surprised to hear what’s not on the list. You may also be surprised that the conversation ends on an upbeat note. Special guest Heidi Shierholz is the president of the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining EPI, she was the Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor during the Obama administration. Throughout her career, Shierholz has provided policymakers and economic commentators with research and analysis on labor market dynamics, labor and employment policy, and the effects of economic policies on low- and middle-income families. She is regularly called upon to testify in congress and her research and commentary on labor and employment policy, inequality, racial and gender disparities in the labor market, worker bargaining power, and other topics have been cited in top broadcast, radio, print, and online news outlets. After receiving her Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, she was an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto in Toronto, Ontario. She has an M.S. in statistics from Iowa State University, and a B.A. in mathematics from Grinnell College in Iowa. Check out some of Heidi Shierholz’s recent write-ups:Workers want unions, but the latest data point to obstacles in their pathImmigrants are not hurting U.S.-born workersMiddle-out economics is good for workers, their families, and the broader economy Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. 

Listeners of Inside Economics have been demanding a podcast on the nation’s debt, and now they have it.  At least one side of it. We talk deficits and debt with Paul Sheard, former Chief Economist of S&P Global. To Mark and team’s surprise, Paul explains why he isn’t worried about the nation’s fiscal trajectory. More views on this to come. For more on Paul Sheard's book: Click Here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

The Inside Economics team dissects yet another upside surprise in the February jobs report and ponders the mixed messages between the payroll and household surveys. Employment is coming in hot but the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over a year and wage growth cooled. The team theorizes on why the two surveys are so at odds with each other lately. Finally, they each opine on whether the data are leaning more toward a higher risk of recession or “no landing”. Surprisingly, they’re all in agreement.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Amid all the optimism regarding a soft landing for the economy, the Inside Economics team considers what bothers them most about the economy’s near-term prospects. Cris focuses on GDP vs GDI, Marisa on the soft global economy, and Mark on the internals of the labor market. They remain upbeat about the economy, but…. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

Inside Economics welcomes back Mark Calabria, the former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. We discuss the current housing affordability crisis and what policymakers should do to address it, the FHFA’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the risks posed by nonbank mortgage companies. The group also takes up the role of the Federal Home Loan Banks. Plenty of debate, and even some agreement.For more info on Mark CalabriaFor more info on Mark Calabria's book, Shelter from the Storm, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.