Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody’s Analytics own Scott Hoyt joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the state of the American consumer, as the critical Christmas buying season is set to begin. Consumers have been powering the broader economy, and the team expects that to continue.  But there are a number of consumer-related puzzles, which the team works to solve.Guest: Scott Hoyt, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Joe Hazell, Assistant Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, joins the podcast to discuss inflation. Joe breaks down the reasons for the lack of inflation in the pre-pandemic period and the primary causes of inflation over the past four years. The team discusses why the average American is much more sensitive to inflation than unemployment and whether the Fed should rethink how it balances the two when considering monetary policy. Finally, the discussion turns to the incoming Trump administration’s policies and their potential effect on inflation over the next few years.  Guest: Jonathon Hazell - Assistant Professor of Economics at the London School of EconomicsPapers mentioned in this episode: Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs and The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics team assesses the inflation statistics, and why there is no going back to the where prices were prior to fallout from the pandemic and Russian war in Ukraine. And while inflation has largely been quelled, President-elect Trump’s tariff, immigration and other policies threaten to fan inflation anew.  There is also the stats game and listener questions. Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Chris Avallone, Head of Merchant Banking at Amherst, joins the Inside Economics crew to discuss the housing market.  The group examines the "lock-in" effect keeping existing homeowners in their homes and the "lock-out" effect preventing aspiring homebuyers from realizing their dreams.  Chris describes a playbook that local governments could use to address zoning and free up the "locked up" housing market.  After a quick stats game, Mark polls the group for their forecasts for when and how the housing market will normalize. The recording of this podcast took place before the results of the 2024 election.For Cris's paper on the Housing Deficit and Housing Affordability click hereGuest: Chris Avallone, Head of Merchant Banking at The Amherst GroupHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Mark joins the podcast from Europe to provide the European perspective on the U.S. election and how the outcome may affect their economies.  The team then dissects the reactions of the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets before turning to listener questions.  Marisa asks the group for their views on the vibecession, a term coined by Kyla Scanlon, to explain the disconnect between economists and the general public, and the integrity of economic data.  Cris's dog makes a special guest appearance. https://genius.com/Alanis-morissette-ironic-lyricshttps://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Dante joins the podcast to discuss the October employment report. The impact of recent strikes and hurricanes weighed on the headline jobs figure, but everyone agrees that underlying job growth remains strong. Cris and Mark debate the reasons why productivity growth in the U.S. has outpaced the rest of the world, but Dante remains skeptical that recent productivity success is sustainable.Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Se nior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, joins Mark and Cris to discuss vexillology, potential election outcomes, and the impact of proposed immigration and tariff policies on the economy.  After a quick statistics game, Doug shared his insights on the national debt and how the government's fiscal imbalances may ultimately be resolved. Guest: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of American Action ForumRead this week's "Week in Regulation" from the American Action Forum: Latest Cybersecurity Rule Leaves a MarkRead Mark's Article in the Philadelphia Inquirer: Weighing the Merits of Broad-Based Tariffs Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Ben Harris, Brookings’ Director of Economic Studies, joined the Inside Economics team to talk about the economy, the presidential election, and the economic policies of Vice President Harris and former President Trump. The bottom line: buckle in.  The election will likely be close and contentious, and the ultimate makeup of government will result in very different directions for policy and the economy’s future performance.Today's Guest: Ben Harris - Brookings, Vice President and Director of Economic StudiesPaper referenced by Ben Harris: Immigration and the macroeconomy after 2024Papers referenced by Inside Economics team: The Macroeconomic Fallout of Trump’s Tariff Proposals  Updated 2024 U.S. Election ProbabilitiesAssessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Harris vs. TrumpHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedInEmail the Inside Economics team with your questions: helpeconomy@moodys.com

Matt Colyar and Adam “Hurricane” Kamins join the podcast to discuss this week’s inflation data and the economic impact of Hurricane Milton. The team parses the latest CPI report and debates whether inflation is “sticky” or “moderating”.  Adam discusses his work on estimating the economic damage from the recent string of devastating hurricanes. The team also discusses the potential longer-term fallout on housing and migration in storm-prone areas like Florida.  For the paper on the impact of homeowners insurance on housing affordability click hereGuest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsGuest: Adam Kamins - Senior Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Mark and Cris are joined by Dante and Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.  Dante kicks things off with a detailed summary of the stronger than expected U.S. employment report for September. Buoyant wage growth and upward revisions to July and August’s numbers confirm that the economy remains healthy.  The discussion then pivoted to the presidential election with Michael making a strong case for status quo economic policies and divided government.Check out Michael's Strain's Book: The American Dream Is Not DeadGuest: Michael R. Strain - Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute (AEI)Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Is this the best economy ever? Given the big revisions to GDP and the steady stream of other stellar economic data, the Inside Economics team makes the case that it is.  Moderating inflation, full employment, stronger savings rates and steady corporate profits point to an economy that is stronger than consumer confidence suggests. The team also discusses the latest economic proposals from the presidential campaign and a recent opinion piece comparing Mark’s forecasts to those of Punxsutawney Phil. Editor’s note: Punxsutawney Phil has also been unfairly mischaracterized by the media. https://www.axios.com/2023/01/28/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-spring-winterGuest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Economist Martin Wurm joins Inside Economics to discuss the Fed’s rate cut earlier this week, which was larger than the IE team expected. Martin talks about the decision behind the large cut and what it means for the future path of interest rates and the forecasts for the rest of the economy. The team discusses the rate decision’s impact on the housing market and mortgage rates and ends by playing a tough stats game.Guest: Martin Wurm – Director-Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics team breaks down the latest inflation data -- August’s consumer price index. They unpack the underlying components, focusing most of their attention on the confounding acceleration in shelter inflation. “Eggflation” makes a return to the podcast as well. Nevertheless, U.S. inflation has cooled considerably, and the Fed is set to start lowering their policy rate at next week’s meeting. What will that mean for U.S. consumers and businesses? Finally, Marisa takes some listener questions and Matt reads some (mostly positive) reviews of the Inside Economics podcast.  Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics crew gathers in Southern California for an early morning reaction to the August jobs report, which they all concur is “pretty good”. They discuss the implications of slowing job growth for the Fed’s upcoming meetings as well as the presidential election. Finally, they all give their odds for a recession occurring in the next year—Cris remains the bear of the group. Guest: Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Economic ResearchHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

The Inside Economics team discusses what they found most encouraging and disquieting in the blizzard of economic releases and events of this past week. Emily Mandel, our state and local government expert, also weighs in on the fiscal health of states and how the economy is performing in states that stand to swing the Presidential election. The group also takes up listener questions; keep the Qs coming. Guest: Emily Mandel - Associate Director, Senior Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn