Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Gaurav, Kamil and Andrew return to discuss the latest news on the European economy. Kamil unpacks the latest trade and industrial production data and what they reveal about the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Is the weakness just a reversal of earlier frontloading in pharmaceuticals, or are tariffs starting to bite? Meanwhile, Andrew discusses the key takeaways from the text of the EU-U.S. trade agreement and what it suggests about the likely path of tariff rates. The damage from tariffs is set to grow and uncertainty remains high, but the team share a sense that the risks of recession in Europe have receded and even manage to agree on the odds. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Andrew, Barbara, and Denise join Gaurav for an in-depth exploration of the multifaceted Russia-Ukraine conflict, including potential peace terms and shifting scenarios. They assess the unexpected resilience of the Russian economy amid sanctions and growing internal challenges. The team also examines global energy markets, focusing on Russian oil flows to India and China, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and the broader feasibility of U.S. energy exports. They then turn to America’s defence strategy and the implications for Europe, before ending with thoughts on the potential for the economic reconstruction of both countries. Bringing this war to an end on terms that are fair for Ukraine and ensuring an enduring peace is much easier said than done, but surely worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize? Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav and Andrew welcome Suren Vardanyan and Charlie Houston to the podcast to discuss the Middle East. The region remains relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs and has avoided the worst effects of recent global shocks. The team breaks down the shifting role of hydrocarbon exports and revenues, debates evolving tail risks in geopolitics, and discusses how significant investments in AI and future technologies could fundamentally change the key drivers of these economies. Click here to Read Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo's Economic View paper Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Denise, Andrew, and Kamil for a bumper episode on the global fallout from the latest wave U.S. tariffs and deals. The team debates whether this is the end of globalization as we know it or just a messy new chapter. From the EU’s apparent capitulation and Switzerland’s chocolate woes to Japan’s plan B and Southeast Asia’s tightrope walk, the team breaks down the implications for growth, investment, and global trade, and why financial markets still seem oddly calm. Are tariffs now a general-purpose economic weapon for the U.S.? And will European and Asian economies ever fight back, or are we all just frogs in slowly boiling water?For deeper insights from the Moody’s Analytics research team, watch the latest on-demand webinar, Japan’s Economic Outlook: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. Available now.Here is the link: https://events.moodys.com/mc68475-wbn-2025-map27519-japan-economic-outlook-q3 Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for another U.K. special. The U.K. increasingly appears to have done relatively well in recent trade negotiations with the U.S., but the team struggle to find much else to be cheerful about, with the second half of 2025 still likely to bring weak growth, stubborn inflation and higher taxes. The team debate whether further rate cuts by the Bank of England will brighten the mood, but David warns that the pace of easing is likely to remain gradual. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke and mirrors? Finally, the team tackles the big question: is the trade chaos behind us, or just getting started? Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held up surprisingly well amid ongoing trade tensions, the downside risks appear to be rising once again. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the team half-jokes about signing up for social networks just to keep pace, one thing’s clear: this trade war is far from over, and the damage is adding up fast. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks.In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The Asia GroupRead more from Kurt Tong here Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers.  Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role of tariffs, uncertainty, and other contributing factors, while also acknowledging the huge variations across European countries. The team then turns to the latest data and explores how significantly momentum has been boosted by stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs. Finally, the group reacts to the latest euro zone inflation data and the ECB’s recent rate decision. Has the central bank reached the end of its easing cycle—or is there more to come? Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Steve and Stefan discuss with their colleague Jesse Rogers the complex role of China in the Mexican economy and in Mexico’s exports to the U.S. Jesse shares his research showing China’s important role in Mexico’s domestic economy, particularly for autos, transportation and other infrastructure-related goods. But China plays less of a part in Mexico’s U.S.-bound export trade, unlike, say, in Vietnam, where Chinese and other foreign firms assemble goods for export to the U.S. market. Steve and Stefan are following closely the Taiwan economy, one of the strongest in Asia right now. And Jesse suggests some alternatives to Bad Bunny if one is into salsa and Latin music.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does represent a partial reset in economic relations and a positive step in the right direction. Unfortunately, none of the three deals will massively boost the U.K. economy, nor help avoid tax rises in the autumn. In the second half of the episode, the team moves on to talk about the prospects for a U.S.-EU deal, and the conclusion is that it’s still difficult, even though it looks more plausible now than it did in early April. Does this mean that reciprocal tariffs take effect in July, or that the EU will have no choice but to retaliate against U.S. tariffs?  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic and fiscal impact of higher European defense spending. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

With the Australian election upon us, David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, joins the team to discuss the outlook. Productivity is front of mind, having languished for the last few years amid only timid economic reforms; a clear-cut election victory could provide the political capital to change that. Elsewhere, the RBA’s priorities are shifting from taming inflation to supporting growth. With that in mind, David is confident the board will cut in May. How much more easing we get will depend on the damage President Trump’s tariffs do to the global and local economies.  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds  from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of growth in the G7 feels very low. David and Andrew think that income and corporate tax rises will be hard to avoid in coming years, and Gaurav immediately brings up the Beatles. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy. This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Marisa DiNatale, Dante DeAntonio, Mark Hopkins, Alfredo Coutino, and Justin Begley. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.