Claim OwnershipMore or Less: Behind the Stats
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Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
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It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year.
We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines. Contributors:
RukminiS, Data for India
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University,
Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Engineer: Donald McDonald and Rod Farquhar
2“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis?
Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network?
We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it.
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Researcher: Esme Winterbotham
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Sound Master: James Beard
Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison.Image: Benito Mussolini in his train studying maps. (Photo by ullstein picture/ullstein picture via Getty Images)
Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances?
That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting.
They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”.
But what does this really mean? We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers.
Contributor:
Ben Krauss, journalist
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound Engineer: Andrew Mills
Editor: Richard Vadon
When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation. There’s an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war. We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon
President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget. The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound Mix: Andrew Mills
Editor: Richard Vadon
Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels?
In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does.
We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, and Nate Vernon, one of the co-authors of the IMF paper.
Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot.
A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone?
Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud.
The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward.
Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound Mix: Hal Haines
Editor: Richard Vadon
A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future? That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations. Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence behind it is far from persuasive.Presenter: Tim Harford and Bethan Ashmead Latham
Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner
Editor: Richard Vadon
The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out. Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes. Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Natasha Fernandes
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: John Scott
Editor: Richard Vadon
Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives?
Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months?
Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones?
Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower
Producer: Natasha Fernandes
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon
On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities. Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound Mix: Annie Gardiner
Editor: Richard Vadon
Was an MP wrong about the number of people who pay capital gains tax?Why is 2% the magic number for the rate of inflation?Donald Trump says US crime figures are fake. Are they?How do you work out how many buffaloberries a bear eats in a day?And we fact-check a claim about the prevalence of suicide among GPs. For information and support follow this link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/actionlineTim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Rod Farquhar
Editor: Richard Vadon
The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics. Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states. Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award.Presenter: Charlotte McDonald
Reporter: Tim Harford
Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon
Can we teach BBC political editor Chris Mason some new maths skills?
Do 60 of the UK’s richest people pay 100% tax?
Have water bills fallen in real terms since 2010?
When it comes to HPV and cervical cancer, is zero a small number?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley
Editor: Richard Vadon
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty. His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance. Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: John Scott
Editor: Richard Vadon
Are childhood obesity rates going down?
Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows?
How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule?
And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald
Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon
National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”.Is this really true? Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number. Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Giles Aspen
Editor: Richard Vadon
Are GPs really working less hours per week?
Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK?
Are more people in the UK economically inactive?
How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley
Editor: Richard Vadon
Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles. Presenter: Tim Harford
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples
Sound mix: Donald MacDonald
Editor: Richard Vadon
The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
Sound mix: Sarah Hockley
Editor: Richard Vadon
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Say ING woman not IN. Who wants to hear you say TAILORIN ? Elocute.
Guest : "They (women) tend to have a bigger burden for home care, for better or for worse...." Well, it's better for men, and worse for women!
He said the rate of serious injury is one person per million flights so you would have to take one million flights for just one of the people to be injured. Well no, that's not how statistics works. Not everyone on a flight where someone is seriously injured has taken a million flights. It's ridiculous to expect a plane full of people who have all taken a million flights! In fact, a serious injury could happen to someone on their very first flight.
University of Edinbugh is in Scotland,who knew!
repeat?
When numbers do not make any sense, why bother! Staying away may be the best strategy.Not all misjudgments can be remedied after all.
this seems like correlation rather than causation
Victoria's voice sets my ASMR off like crazy
I'm so glad that data is becoming a singular :-D I've always thought it silly as a plural, because words such as money are also plural in meaning but used as a singular grammatically. Thanks for the interesting piece on the debate :-)
Shocking lack of elocution from that Glasgow woman. Get her off.
☺️
If the guttaral, ill-spoken Scotchwoman says it, it must be false. Dismiss her.
i with Tim showed similar scrutiny with the sweeping statements made by Spiegelhalter as with this poor lady from the teenage mental health issue where he really laboured a point that had very obviously been made...
That ill-spoken Scotchwoman is torture to listen to. Find one who sounds like Charlotte Green, please.
Doesn't it depend on whether the presenter knows which door has the prize or himself chooses randomly?
When this besom Astronomer Royal learns to pronounce her Ts, and to say ABOUT rather than Abou', I will begin to take seriously her pontifications concerning the infinite extent-- vel non-- of the universe.
Tim, "dang" is a made up word Americans use because they think it's obscene, or maybe (literally) diabolical to say "damn". I live in Australia and I find this word dang very annoying!
Your 'Cosmologist' has defined the nature of God, rather than the nature of the universe. Nul points for her as a scientist.
What does this female expert have against the letter T? She omits it consistently-- ra'e for raTe and so on. Sack her and bring in a lady who elocutes.
Grotesquely ill-spoken Scotchwoman expert. Send her to elocution lessons. It is wheaT, not whea'.