Moving Markets: Daily News

November closed with markets focused on hopes of a Fed rate cut, which overshadowed fears of an AI bubble. The S&P 500 made strong gains in a holiday-shortened week, while technology lagged, leaving the Nasdaq down in November for the first time after seven months of gains. European equities ended the month slightly higher, supported by the strong outperformance of Switzerland’s SMI last week. Silver is hitting new highs, while gold is also climbing. In Asia, Chinese PMI data disappointed, while India stood out with 8.2% GDP growth in the third quarter. The head of Japan’s central bank hinted at a rate rise during a speech on Monday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, shares his views on the USD, precious metals, and his outlook for US equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:31) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:51) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Thanksgiving holiday has given stock markets globally a brief pause following the strong performance earlier in the week. With Asian markets trading mixed this morning, attention shifts to key eurozone inflation data, while US markets resume trading for a shortened session. In today’s programme, we welcome Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office, who discusses the concerns around potential cracks in the artificial intelligence capital expenditure cycle.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:23) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (11:29) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are now pricing in an almost 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December – this boosted tech stocks and others followed suit, prompting a global rally. US markets will be shut today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the Black Friday shopping bonanza will start tomorrow when the US market will reopen for a shortened trading session. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economic and Next Generation Research, joins the show with a timely update on energy markets and what’s driving them currently. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, rounds off the podcast by highlighting the latest moves in Sterling after the UK budget as well as this week’s action in preciousmetals.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:44) - Energy Markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:41) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (15:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets continue to rally amid improving investor sentiment and rising expectations of further US interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, oil prices are trading lower, driven by signs of de-escalation efforts in relation to Russia’s war in Ukraine. In today’s programme, we are joined by Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research analyst, who shares his insights on why a stronger Japanese yen is unlikely to hinder the ongoing rise of Japanese equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:44) - Japan update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (17:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities, led by technology, rallied as confidence in artificial intelligence strengthened and rate-cut expectations grew. European defence stocks slipped amid ongoing Ukraine peace talks. Novo Nordisk tumbled, while Bayer surged on positive trial results. In Asia, Taiwan tensions kept trading cautious. Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research discusses the outlook for digital assets after last week’s sharp price drop.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:19) - Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last week brought significant market shifts — from concerns about bursting investment bubbles to potential peace talks in Ukraine, and a major milestone for Eli Lilly. The S&P 500 posted its second decline in three weeks, while the Nasdaq recorded a third consecutive weekly drop. However, on Friday, US markets stabilised after dovish remarks from a prominent Federal Reserve official, with most stocks closing higher. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why this is a positive signal and why last Thursday’s sharp intraday reversal, though counterintuitive, is technically a bullish indicator.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:16) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:45) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets swung sharply as NVIDIA’s post-earnings rally reversed into losses, triggering a sell-off on Wall Street. Robust US employment data and hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes of interest rate cuts, while defensive sectors held firm and oil prices slipped amid Ukraine peace talks. Japan unveiled a new stimulus package—the largest since the Covid crisis. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses how investors are navigating tough choices amid persistent volatility in precious metals, mixed economic indicators, and shifting currency flows, including notable Swiss franc selling this week.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:52) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva (10:58) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang shrugged off concerns about an AI bubble on Wednesday, as the company surprised Wall Street with accelerating growth after several quarters of slowing sales growth. Technology-heavy indices in Asia are trading significantly higher this morning. Defence companies came under selling pressure after news of a potential US peace plan for Ukraine. Oil also fell on the news. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his latest view on the black gold and dives deeper into the topic of data centres and related energy demand.(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:50) - Oil / data centres and rising electricity prices in the US: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research (13:38) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of today’s highly anticipated NVIDIA earnings release, scheduled after market close in New York. The uncertainty weighed on equities, pushing stock indices lower and widening credit yield spreads. Notably, the equal-weighted S&P 500 held up relatively well, indicating that the downturn was not broad-based. Joining us today is Dario Messi, who shares his insights on navigating fixed income markets amid the current macroeconomic backdrop.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:38) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:58) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets saw another sharp decline yesterday as investors awaited Wednesday’s earnings report from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia and a closely watched US jobs report later this week. Sentiment was already fragile, and news that a prominent hedge fund had sold its Nvidia stake added further pressure. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, shares his outlook on the upcoming wave of US economic data following the end of the government shutdown and explains what these developments could mean for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:50) - With US data delivery resuming, what next for the Fed?: David Kohl, Chief Economist (11:45) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After a rollercoaster session US equities rebounded by Friday’s close, with technology even ending the day in positive territory. Europe had earlier closed lower, mirroring Thursday’s US tech selloff. Overnight, Korean technology stocks drove the Kospi higher but China and Japan’s geopolitical tensions over Taiwan weighed on the broader market. Japan’s travel and tourism sectors took a hit today after China warned its citizens not to travel there. When it comes to the week ahead, watch out for the Fed minutes, a raft of US data being unleashed after the shutdown, and Nvidia’s all-important results on Wednesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical analysis covers likely trajectories for gold and the US dollar in today’s podcast, as well as revealing what the charts say about a year-end rally.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:40) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets turned risk-off after early optimism. European stocks reversed gains, with the STOXX 600 down 0.6%. In the US, hawkish Federal Reserve comments erased the relief rally: the Nasdaq dropped 2.3%, Bitcoin fell back below USD 100,000, and gold eased slightly. Odds of a December rate cut slipped to 50% following remarks by several Fed members, lifting US Treasury yields. US president Trump plans tariff cuts on food imports to tackle inflation. Brent crude rebounded from midweek losses. The dollar softened, the Swiss franc strengthened, the yen hit a record low against the euro, and sterling remains volatile. Weak Chinese data weighed on Asian equities, led by technology losses. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights that precious metals are trading with equity-like dynamics, the CHF goes from strength to strength, while the Japanese yen is under pressure.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:30) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva (10:51) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

We need to exclude tech stocks though. Whilst the S&P 500 rose, and the Dow Jones closed above 48,000 for the first time ever, the Nasdaq Composite closed lower yesterday, with investors further rotating out of technology and into industrials, financials and healthcare stocks. News of the end of the US government’s longest ever shutdown also provided a muted boost to Asia’s stock markets.European stocks closed broadly higher, continuing their upward trend this week. Even gold saw a relief rally. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research joins the podcast today to try to make sense of just what is driving the current rebound in the precious metal markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:14) - Gold & silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:16) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European equities hit fresh highs, led by Swiss stocks on tariff hopes. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Tuesday’s session also at record levels while the Nasdaq Composite faced pressure after SoftBank exited its Nvidia stake and investors moved money away from technology stocks into other parts of the market. Joining the show today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the potential end of the US shutdown from a bond perspective, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares his view on the final inning of the Q3 earnings season and why he thinks healthcare is in a good place.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:36) - US corporate credit update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:54) - Earnings season, and a sector upgraded to Overweight: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:21) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets staged a broad-based rebound yesterday, driven by optimism that the US government shutdown may soon be resolved. Equities rallied, led by tech, while both Bitcoin and gold also moved higher. In Asia, early gains faded after China signalled potential restrictions on rare earth exports, and Japan’s bond auction underwhelmed. We also cover Fed Governor Miran’s dovish comments, ongoing delays in US economic data, and what to watch during today’s Veterans Day trading session. Joining us is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who shares his thoughts on Bitcoin’s Q4 performance so far, which has been overshadowed by broader economic uncertainty.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:22) - Crypto assets update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (11:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After a volatile week in equity markets – driven by valuation concerns surrounding tech and AI-related companies – stocks are climbing this morning on news that the US government shutdown may soon come to an end. Gold is also on the rise, potentially signalling the conclusion of its brief consolidation phase. Today, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his insights on why he believes the year-end rally is gaining momentum.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:15) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Outplacement firm Challenger reported over 150,000 job cuts in October – the highest for the month of October in more than 20 years. US Treasury yields fell sharply, raising expectations of a December Fed rate cut, although some officials remain cautious. AI-related stocks dragged markets lower, but the selling was selective. In Europe, German industrial output beat forecasts but remains weak; while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell on disappointing earnings. In Asia, China’s exports unexpectedly declined for the first time in eight months. Richard Tang, Head of Research in Hong Kong, discusses the lack of short-term catalysts for China’s equity markets and our outlook on the AI investment theme, which is key to markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:19) - Asia update – Japan, Korea and China: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (13:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US, European and Asian markets have all reacted positively to news in the US yesterday. Private payrolls and ISM data revealed that the economy is more resilient than had been feared. Advanced Micro Devices’ Q3 earnings beat expectations, and their tide lifted other AI boats globally. And the Supreme Court hinted that it may well place limits on President Trump’s tariffs, although we’ll have to wait a while for any decision there. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, provides insights into the rollercoaster ride that copper has been on recently, sharing his thoughts on what might come next.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:58) - Copper: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:05) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global markets retreated yesterday as investors took a closer look at lofty AI valuations. The US dollar climbed to a three-month high, supported by persistent inflation concerns and the ongoing government shutdown. Commodities came under pressure, with both gold and oil slipping, while crypto markets saw sharp declines amid broader risk-off sentiment. In Asia, tech-led losses weighed on indices, and minutes from the Bank of Japan revealed a growing internal debate over potential rate hikes. Joining the show today are Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the US public debt dynamics, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares insights on Q3 hyperscaler earnings, the AI bubble, and emerging market equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:13) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:21) - Q3 earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (16:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets edged higher during the European and US trading sessions, buoyed by earnings and renewed investor enthusiasm around AI-driven deals and ahead of Palantir's highly anticipated earnings release after the close. Although the company surpassed earnings expectations, its share price tumbled post-market as concerns emerged over its current valuation. In today’s discussion, we’re joined by Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research, who provides insight into the evolving opportunities and risks within the AI ecosystem.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:34) - Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:25) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.