European markets were weighed down last week by heightened political uncertainty emanating from France, while US markets enjoyed a solid week on the back of encouraging inflation data. The divergence was clearly visible in relative equity performance, with the weekly gap between the S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the French CAC 40 (-6.2%) the widest since early March 2022, just after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Investors looking for safe-haven assets pushed gold higher and yields lower. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he would still wait before turning bearish on European equities, why yields could very well fall further and why he still likes large-cap US growth stocks.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:07 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)10:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
While most of Europe looks to Germany for football, investors are turning their attention to France, where President Macron’s decision to hold a parliamentary vote has caused quite a stir – French equities and bonds are both down on the week. Meanwhile, in the US, this week’s data pointed to a cooling of inflation and the labour market, making a strong case for interest rate cuts. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, joins the show today to share his insights into the latest US macroeconomic data and what it means for our interest rate expectations this year.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:36 Comments on latest US data and FOMC meeting by David Kohl (Chief Economist)15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
After US consumer prices for May rose by slightly less than expected, the US Federal Reserve yesterday left its policy rate unchanged, as anticipated, but dialled back its expectations for interest-rate cuts, now pencilling in just one for the rest of the year. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on the gold market and central bank purchases. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides a rundown of the latest news from the CIO Office.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:16 Gold/PBOC halt in purchases: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:17 Latest news from the CIO Office byLatest news from the CIO Office byNicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)13:40 Closing remarks by CIO Office by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
President Emanuel Macron's call for legislative elections sends shockwaves through European financial markets. It is the big day for US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Apple hits a new all-time high. China remains in a deflationary environment, while Japan's producer prices surprise to the upside. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, remains positive on peripheral European government bonds despite political uncertainty in France. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses the news that China's central bank has stopped buying gold (for now).00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:25 European politics/The Fed by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)13:32 FX and Metals update by Tim Gagie (Head FX & PM Solutions Geneva)18:22 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
US stocks rose to new record highs yesterday as two of the major tech mega-caps led the way for the major indices. Meanwhile, Europe suffered a hangover of fresh political uncertainty after right-wing parties emerged victorious in the European Parliament elections over the weekend. Next Generation analyst Manuel Villegas shares his insights on the latest regulatory twists and turns in the crypto markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:20 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
US jobs growth surged in May and wages accelerated, prompting traders to push back the expected timing of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US Treasuries sold off, pushing yields higher on Friday. And while equity markets in Europe ended the day lower, US stocks initially fell but largely pared losses to end the day just slightly in the red. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team talks about the technical setup for the S&P 500 and Dax indices, and why he expects US Treasury yields to fall.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:03 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)08:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
The ECB cut its deposit rate yesterday, but did not commit to further rate cuts. Eurozone banks rallied the most on the prospect of fewer rate cuts than previously expected. Microsoft and Nvidia may face antitrust investigation in the US. Two giant banks, Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui, are to start selling their strategic stakes in Toyota Motor worth around USD 8.5 billion, illustrating that corporate reform in Japan is for real. India's financial markets are returning to calm after the surprise outcome of the national elections, while European parliamentary elections are in focus this weekend. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, explains why we like German equities.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:26 German equities by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)09:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Nvidia became the second biggest company in the world yesterday as its market value exceeded USD 3 trillion, whilst ASML pushed LVMH aside to take over the number 2 spot in European markets. Other technology stocks also performed well – pushing their indices to new all-time highs. Markets now await more the discussion than the decision when it comes to the ECB later today: whilst the rate cut is firmly priced in, what Christine Lagarde says afterwards will be the main focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to explain his ‘Cautious’ outlook for the oil markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:18 Update on oil / OPEC meeting by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)08:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
The Swiss equity market continues to shine among its European peers, with inflation well below the Swiss National Bank’s upper target and the stock market outperforming. In Asia, all eyes are on the Indian elections, where Prime Minister Modi’s party failed to win an outright majority but he looks set for a third term in office. Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, shares his views on the Indian election and reviews the Chinese and Japanese markets. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research discusses our expectations for tomorrow’s European Central Bank rate decision.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:44 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:55 India election results & Asia calls by Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia)14:36 Bond markets update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)19:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
A flurry of weaker US economic data, which included a slowdown in factory output and a surprise contraction in the construction industry, saw the US dollar index drop to a new two-month low. The data also saw US equities post lacklustre, flat returns yesterday, while the US bond market rallied and US Treasury bond yields fell. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with an update on digital assets, and takes a closer look at the approval of Ethereum ETFs and the topic of regulation.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)08:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Major stock market indices are building on May's strong performance as we enter the meteorological summer here in Europe. In Asia, Indian markets are leading the way as exit polls show a landslide victory for incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, believes there is more upside ahead for both equities and gold.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:29 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)09:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Yesterday’s weaker-than-expected US GDP data helped to boost rate cut expectations by the Fed and bring yields down from their highs. And while equity markets in Europe and Asia gained, tech stocks in the US came under selling pressure. Disappointing earnings data and US officials reviewing licenses to chipmakers for shipments to the Middle East pulled the sector down. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the importance of central bank meetings in the coming weeks, recent developments in precious metals and why he thinks the recent CHF strength will only be temporary.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:59 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva09:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Markets came under pressure yesterday after a USD 44bn Treasury auction saw weak investor demand, following two lacklustre auctions on Tuesday. The broad risk aversion gripping markets comes as rising bond yields are putting an increasing strain on risk assets. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, comments on the latest drivers in the oil market and shares his outlook for oil prices.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:25 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)10:24 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
While equities were broadly flat on Tuesday, US Treasury yields jumped on weak 2- and 5-year auctions and comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who said policymakers had not completely ruled out further rate hikes - even if the current policy stance was restrictive. Fixed Income strategist, Dario Messi, explains what's behind the more cautious tone from Fed speakers and what it means for investors.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:02 Bond markets update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)09:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Germany's Ifo business climate survey shows an improved outlook, while European equities see renewed inflows. Elon Musk's AI startup xAI raises USD 6 billion in its second round of funding. Japan's inflation picks up, supporting the case for higher interest rates. Shanghai makes it easier for home buyers. And the US moves to T+1 stock settlement. Manuel Villegas of Next Generation Research wonders if it will be ‘sell the news’ once Ethereum ETFs will be trading on US exchanges.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:24 Digital Assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)12:12 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Fresh data from China showed that industrial profits rose, boosting Asia-Pacific markets today. Meanwhile, Ethereum, the second largest digital token, rose as the US SEC signed off on a proposal by major US exchanges to list Ether-linked products. Gold edged higher this morning, while oil prices are in a holding pattern ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later this week. Today’s public holidays in the US and UK are expected to keep trading relatively thin. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins us today to discuss what the charts say about where equities and bonds might go from here.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:03 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)10:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Stronger US economic data reduces the case for an interest rate cut, weighing on gold, US Treasuries and global equities. Bucking the trend, Nvidia was up almost 10% and its market cap is now larger than the entire German stock market. The latest eurozone data points to a recovery. Ethereum received a big regulatory boost and the launch of spot Ether ETFs in the US looks more likely. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the CHF, which has now weakened slightly, had been too strong and recalls the time when one of his British pounds bought him more than two Swiss francs.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:30 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Equity markets are higher following NVIDIA's stellar results and despite news that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates in restrictive territory for longer than expected. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, explains why the latest Chinese stimulus package has little impact on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan from our CIO office summarises the views and positioning of the bank's investment committee.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)01:02 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:27 Impact of China’s rescue package on industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:12 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Office)13:45 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
US stocks moved higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at another all-time high, but not without signs of caution among investors ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement today. UK inflation has fallen to its lowest level in almost three years, although April’s drop was not as large as expected which helped the pound sterling jump to its highest level in two months. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, provides us with his insights into the impact of last week’s US CPI print on the interest rate outlook in the US.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:20 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:56 Bond markets update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)11:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
With artificial intelligence so prominent in our lives, it’s perhaps no surprise that one of the biggest players – Nvidia – is not only partially responsible for the current explosion in the sector, but will also be a key factor in where the markets go this week, given that it reports its results tomorrow. Wall Street firms are certainly lining up for good news so let’s hope that they are not disappointed. Stock markets continue to hit new highs, with gold and silver joining the party. Our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, explores whether this can continue on today’s show.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:41 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)09:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.