Moving Markets

The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and struck a data‑dependent tone, even as political pressure around the central bank intensifies. The S&P 500 briefly crossed 7,000 before paring gains, tech earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla sent mixed signals after the close, and European markets fell on volatile moves in ASML and LVMH. The US dollar rebounded on comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent, while geopolitical tensions pushed oil higher and gold surged above USD 5,500 as silver and copper also reached record highs. Today we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a timely update on precious metals and why fundamental analysis cannot explain the most recent moves upwards.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:31) - Precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A whirlwind week in global markets — and it’s only Wednesday. The dollar plunges, the Swiss franc hits multi‑year highs, and gold and silver seem unstoppable. Equity markets touch new records as investors brace for mega‑cap tech earnings and the Fed’s rate decision after market close today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what he expects from the US central bank. A fast, lively breakdown of what’s moving markets — tune in!Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After a remarkable 2025, gold and silver have surged to new highs in early 2026, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments and speculative flows. What is fuelling this rally, can it continue, and how should investors position themselves in these volatile markets?In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Christopher Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading, to dissect the forces behind the explosive moves in gold and silver. The discussion covers the impact of US political dynamics, the role of central bank and ETF flows, the unique characteristics of the silver market, and the macro factors investors should monitor. The episode concludes with practical guidance for managing risk and navigating heightened volatility in precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Key catalysts behind the gold and silver rally (03:12) - Trading flows, speculative positioning, and physical demand (04:25) - The role of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and silver market dynamics (04:58) - Silver – currency or commodity? (07:00) - Geopolitics and the persistence of the rally (08:43) - Erosion of confidence in US assets and implications for gold and silver (09:06) - Silver’s acceleration and trading behaviour (10:35) - Fundamental differences between gold and silver (11:59) - Macro factors to watch: interest rates, inflation, and the US dollar (13:09) - What investors should focus on now – gold (14:10) - What investors should focus on now – silver (15:02) - Key takeaways from trading (16:00) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets opened the week with a weaker US dollar and sharp gains in gold and silver. Precious metals broke key levels, with gold rising as high USD 5,100 and silver to over USD 112 an ounce. Equities and bonds were relatively calm, but global stocks are still near record highs. China’s annual industrial profits rose for the first time since 2021 and India and the EU announce a trade deal. Energy prices are being supported by cold weather in the US and geopolitics. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research discusses stablecoins and the broader crypto backdrop.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:43) - Digital assets in the wake of the gold rally: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (12:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Silver sailed past USD 100 on Friday and has topped 107.50 in Asia this morning. Meanwhile, gold has broken through the USD 5,000 mark. There’s a lot of focus on USD/JPY and a possible US government shutdown is also now on the cards. Along with the twists and turns of geopolitics, markets now face a dense run of central bank decisions and one of the busiest earnings weeks of the year. Our analysts expect a test of conviction as markets navigate policy, growth, and profits simultaneously. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides more colour on the moves in precious metals and the backdrop of the USD, setting out the case for how he believes investors should best position themselves in the current environment.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:49) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:28) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

China’s markets are off to a strong start in 2026, raising renewed comparisons to the 2015 boom‑and‑bust just as global tensions escalate — from dramatic US moves over Greenland to a surge in gold prices and a weakening dollar. With capital rotating out of U.S. assets and liquidity patterns shifting across Asia, does today’s rally carry familiar risks, or does it mark the start of a very different cycle? In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., to examine these cross‑currents: the resilience of A‑shares, the wave of Hong Kong tech IPOs, and why rising margin financing today is not a replay of 2015. They also highlight the key themes shaping 2026, including precious metals, AI‑linked industries, and high‑dividend opportunities. This episode was recorded on 21 January 2026.(00:24) - Initial reactions to the Greenland crisis (02:39) - Implications on gold, US dollar, and global assets (07:36) - China’s rising margin financing balances, and the paradox of a “slow bull market” (12:55) - Hong Kong IPO glut: liquidity drain or healthy market growth? (17:05) - China’s economic cycle vs. valuations (21:16) - Key sector themes for 2026

Global risk sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions eased, diplomatic efforts advanced, and resilient US data lifted equities while pushing volatility and high-yield credit spreads to their lowest since 2007. European stocks played catch‑up, supported by their cyclical exposure and positive company‑specific news. The US dollar has weakened sharply this week, boosting risk‑sensitive currencies. Commodities are surging, with gold and silver extending their historic rallies on strong momentum and a weaker dollar. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, discusses the historic rally in precious metals and investor positioning given the weak USD.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:08) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump castigated European leaders over their response to his Greenland takeover attempt during his speech at the WEF in Davos yesterday but did step back from suggesting the use of military force. Equity markets rallied in response. They were given further positive momentum by a later post from the president which claimed that a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland had been agreed with NATO and that tariff threats against Europe were off the agenda. Equity markets globally are mostly higher today and safe-haven assets have slipped. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins the podcast today to talk about Natural Gas - a sector that has not only seen a surge in prices of late, both in Europe and the US, but which also could be another bargaining tool for President Trump.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:55) - Natural gas and the Greenland commodities story: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets continue to de-risk and the “Sell America” narrative gains traction as geopolitical tensions over Greenland spook investors, triggering an equity sell-off, a weaker dollar, and soaring precious metals. With scant data ahead, all eyes are now on President Trump’s keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later today for clues on policy direction and de-escalation potential. We’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on Japanese bond markets, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who shares his view on how recent geopolitical risks might impact global equity markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:22) - Japanese government bond yields: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (08:05) - Geopolitics disrupting equity markets: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:38) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European equities pulled back sharply yesterday after President Trump threatened tariffs on European goods, sending trade-sensitive sectors like autos and luxury sharply lower while defence stocks bucked the trend. Bond markets also came under pressure, with global yields rising and Japan’s 40-year government bond yield hitting a record high amid fiscal concerns and election uncertainty. In Asia, equity markets were mostly weaker despite fresh record highs in South Korea, while Chinese regulators moved to cool an overheating rally. Gold and silver jumped on safe-haven demand, oil edged higher, and diplomatic tensions flared further over Trump’s proposed ‘Board of Peace’. We’re joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, for a timely update on critical minerals, with a focus on Greenland.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:18) - Critical minerals and the Greenland connection: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:39) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs on eight European allies - linked to the US push to acquire Greenland - is set to ripple through global financial markets this week. Gold and silver have surged to fresh record highs on the news, while the US dollar has weakened. Today, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, who continues to see significant upside potential in select US equity sectors.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:42) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Geopolitics is once again in the spotlight. With protests intensifying in Iran and the recent US intervention in Venezuela, many investors are questioning whether these developments will meaningfully move oil prices — or whether an already oversupplied market will simply absorb the shocks.In this episode of Moving Markets – The View Beyond, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, joins Ayako Lehmann to explore how these events fit into the broader global energy landscape. They also discuss the longer‑term outlook for US shale, the ongoing erosion of oil demand in advanced economies, and what all of this could mean for the crude oil market in 2026.(00:00) - Introduction and framing the geopolitical context (01:00) - Why Venezuela’s regime change did not move oil markets (02:35) - The role of heavy oil from Venezuela, Canada, and Mexico (04:16) - Assessing the situation in Iran and its impact on oil supply (06:22) - Contrasting risks: supply disruption in Iran vs. long-term supply potential in Venezuela (07:44) - Other geopolitical hotspots: Ukraine, Taiwan, and global supply chains (09:49) - Can geopolitical risks meaningfully drive oil prices higher? (12:00) - The state of the U.S. shale business and its sensitivity to price (13:55) - Implications for U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy (15:35) - The impact of lower oil prices on Russia and the Ukraine conflict (17:23) - Lessons from previous geopolitical tensions and structural shifts in oil markets (20:01) - Closing remarks and key takeaways Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Semiconductor stocks stole the spotlight yesterday as record results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reignited the AI trade across Europe, Wall Street, and Asia. Meanwhile, Germany recorded the first year of annual economic growth since 2022, while strong US data shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Oil prices tumbled after President Trump signalled a pause in threats of military action against Iran, and gold extended losses as geopolitical tensions eased. Currency markets saw the yen strengthen on hints of possible intervention and speculation about an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike. Today’s episode features Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his insights on silver, the yen, and the US dollar.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:34) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The average stock in the US rose yesterday, but investors shifted away from technology and bank stocks. European equities reached a new all-time high, though German stocks experienced their first decline in eleven days. Geopolitical tensions and announcements from the Trump administration led to demand for US Treasuries driving yields lower and also caused volatility in precious metals and oil, which rose initially but then declined. Weakness in US technology is affecting Asia, however, the main equity indices there remain stable. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the factors behind silver’s incredible rally, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, talks about why he anticipates a positive earnings season overall.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:51) - Silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:04) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets struggled despite cooler-than-expected US inflation data, as mixed bank earnings, Fed independence concerns, and Iran tensions weighed on sentiment. The latter two factors boosted gold and silver to new record highs. Attention turns to the US and the prospect of possibly hearing about the Supreme Court’s decision on IEEPA tariffs later today. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the potential impact on the bond market and what it means for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:34) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:50) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets pushed higher despite mounting geopolitical tensions, US political uncertainty, and sharp declines in some bank stocks following President Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates. Japanese shares surged on speculation of imminent snap elections, adding another twist to global market dynamics. And today, Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins us to explore how emerging retail trading platforms are reshaping market structures and investor behaviour.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:41) - The Future of Finance: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (10:14) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Jerome Powell has responded to the threat of criminal charges against him relating to the renovation of historic Fed buildings, stating that they are nothing to do with this and rather reflect the fact that he will not bow to political interference when it comes to matters of monetary policy. US futures and the dollar have fallen since he spoke yesterday. This comes after record closes for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 on Friday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s podcast to discuss the technical take on US equity performance as well as the continued rise of precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:36) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Defence stocks soared across the globe yesterday after US President Trump called for a bigger military budget. Meanwhile, technology shares stumbled, oil rebounded sharply, and precious metals gained ground. In Asian trading, Fast Retailing impressed with strong earnings, while Rio Tinto slipped on merger talks with Glencore. We also discuss the narrowing US trade deficit, the Fed’s dovish signals, and Switzerland’s muted inflation backdrop. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva, with an update on metals and currencies.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (08:40) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (12:54) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors should prepare themselves for 2026 to be a year that rewards those who adapt early to the resets and rebalancing which are shaping the new investment landscape. So, what are the key themes?In this edition of Moving Markets - The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, to discuss Julius Baer's Market Outlook 2026 and why it’s important not to let a single country or theme dominate portfolios. Asian equities, artificial intelligence, defensives, and European cyclical stocks all have a role to play. The conversation also covers fixed income positioning, the appeal of Australian dollar bonds, prospects for further US dollar weakness, and whether gold's remarkable run can continue.(00:00) - Introduction to speakers and topic (00:52) - Defining resetting and rebalancing (01:53) - Economic expectations for 2026 (02:46) - The opportunity set is going global (05:51) - Asian AI and tech have room to run (08:03) - Careful portfolio construction required for AI (09:07) - A balanced equity allocation advised for 2026 (09:54) - Fixed income: balancing credit exposure and duration (10:41) - Time to consider Australian dollar bonds (11:52) - Expectations for the US dollar and its alternatives (13:58) - Can the precious metals rally continue? (15:34) - Key messages to take away (16:30) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equity markets closed marginally lower yesterday as they weighed the US administration’s moves on Venezuela and the potential for escalation regarding Greenland. Nevertheless, there were some bright spots: the Nasdaq was boosted by Alphabet, and the Kospi saw gains this morning as Samsung announced impressive Q4 earnings guidance. Defence stocks rose in Europe, but fell in the US, for different reasons. Amidst the surge in precious metals prices, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains why he believes that silver prices have moved too far, too fast of late, and why investors need to distinguish between flow-driven and fundamentals-driven price moves. Tune in to find out where he sees prices going from here.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:22) - Precious metals update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.