NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 24th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Tesla’s earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on today’s podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 22nd April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already benefiting from real wages growth which should accelerate domestic demand, whilst a June cut by the ECB seems likely, with Pantheon predicting four cuts in total this year. That’ll free up even more household spending whilst boosting the investment opportunities for business. But is there the confidence in the economy to support that shift in demand and production? And what of a likely trade dispute with China and the potential of increased geopolitical volatility in the Middle East? Could they impact inflation and hinder Europe’s relatively lacklustre growth opportunity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japan’s CPI and UK retail numbers today. And we give you the latest Netflix earnings – a knockout for new subscribers. Plus a taste of what’s to come on the Weekend Edition. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping  the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel industry. Today Australia’s employment numbers will be the focus. The unemployment rate rose considerably in February but as Rodrigo points out, these numbers can be very volatile. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHow markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there hasn’t been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. There’s also discussion on China’s trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this?JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesn’t think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChristine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didn’t help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldn’t cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NAB’s base case that the BoE is some way away yet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a fall in equities. NAB’s Sky Masters says the moves reflect markets who have been holding out for a June rate cut – now reality has hit. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ both kept rates on hold, with a similar message that they need more time before considering cuts. It seems the ECB might be the first to cut – we’ll get some fresh insights at their meeting later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the move first? We also discuss yesterday's NAB business survey and consumer confidence, as well as diving into the surprising results from the NFIB business optimism index in America which is at its lowest level since 2012. And Phil eats some humble pie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 9th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environment for cuts. But there are signs that other parts of the world might be recovering a little faster. Een Europe is showing signs of a recovery. At home yesterday’s housing finance was stronger than expected, another factor that could delay the RBA. Today the NFIB small business survey is out, but ray says the key small business number is already out. Listen in for more.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 8th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. He says, surely they’d be happy to see a broader workforce because it would ease wage inflation pressures? There’s also discussion on rising commodity prices, the record price of gold and yet a falling Australian balance of trade. Three central banks meet in the week ahead. Listen in for more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th April 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country steeped in debt, with large scale developments being forced into administration? Diana Choyleva is Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, a research company based in London that focuses on China. She suggests the short-term target is likely achievable, but the longer term proposition is less certain as the economy struggles to create increased domestic demand whilst undergoing more decoupling from the west.There are further insights available from the Enodo Economics website, including this paper: China Unveils Expansionary Policy In Support Of Xi's Security Objectives - https://bit.ly/3U2xiAE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead of the next release later this month. Meanwhile equity markets have been choppy ahead of tonight’s payrolls numbers in the US, whilst the ECB minutes reaffirm that a June cut is likely. But then what? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJerome Powell spoke at the Stamford Forum overnight, reiterating that the Fed was prepared to wait before cutting rates. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are now stating to come to terms with the fact that a June cut is almost certainly off the cards, and three cuts this year are looking less and less likely. But how long do they wait for? The Services ISM was weaker than anticipated, could a delay in cuts cause unnecessary damage to the economy? A June cut is far more likely in Europe, where the Eurozone CPI read came in lower than expected. The ECB meeting minutes out today will be eagerly perused for any indication to the contrary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields continued to rise in the US overnight, with Europe playing catch-up as it returns from a long Easter weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the adjustment markets are making to their rate cut expectations from the Fed. European bonds also rose even though today’s Eurozone inflation number could be lower than expected. There’s also discussion of the RBA minutes, which seem a little more hawkish than the tone set in the statement and press conference.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tueday 2nd April 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, and job claims fell last week? Rau suggests its more of a ‘no landing’ situation, if the data holds out. There was good news from China too over the weekend. It might be a short week, but it’s a busy one. Phil and Ray talk through what to expect. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.