NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 21st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBefore you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia. Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week? And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities bounced back, despite ongoing uncertainty in US China relations. President Trump has described China’s avoidance of US soybeans as an economic hostile account, but Scott Bessent talked up the likelihood of a truce if China plays its part. NAB’s Sally Auld joins phil to talk through the market response to all this, plus the strong start to corporate earnings season. Although tech and banking might do well, Sally says we wait to see what earnings tell us about the real economy. Today, unemployment data for Australia is out, but it’s unlikely it will do anything to bring forward a cut from the RBA, with NAB still forecasting no moves until May next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been day 14 of the US shutdown, as both sides dig in. And are we being too optimistic about US China relations? NAB’s Gavin Friend says we shouldn’t assume the TACO trade will see the US backing down on such an important issue. He also discusses with Phil comments from Jerome Powell at the National Association of Business Economists in Philadelphia this morning. He was more dovish than expected, helping equities to recover from earlier losses. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe release of hostages and prisoners in Israel and Gaza is the good news story of the year, but markets are still more concerned about the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China. Equities have bounced back, and the Aussie dollar has regained some ground, but both sides are waiting for the other side to make the first move. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the market response, and looks ahead to a day light on data, but strong on central bank speakers and corporate earnings. Can the rebound in US equities hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets threw a bit of a hissy fit on Friday over US threats of 100% tariffs on China, and the meeting between Xi and Trump supposedly cancelled. But how much of it is hot air? If you look at the latest gambling odds from Polymarket, there’s only an 11% chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1st and a 67% chance the two presidents will meet before the end of the month. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are simply seeing another TACO moment, in which case, will the markets settle down today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Gold hit another watershed moment this week, moving beyond $4,000 an ounce. Investors seemingly can’t get enough of it. John Reade, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, joins Phil to talk about why gold keeps rising in price, and whether $6,000 by this time next year is realistic? Or have we reached ‘peak worry’, and prices could start to retrace a little. John’s view is that gold is being used to hedge against US dollar exposure. Does that mean as long as the uncertainty of US policies and economic outlook remains, gold will continue to do well? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US shutdown continues and the data drought continues, hence, markets are a little more cautious and central bankers seem to be erring on the side of caution (RBNZ being the exception). NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to decipher some of the comments from central bank speakers and looks at a couple of interesting papers from the Boston and Dallas Fed. Plus, with Japan now under new management, how are markets responding to that? Michelle Bullocks testimony to the senate economics committee will be one highlight today, along with Canada’s employment data, which could determine the next move by the BoC. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 9th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed minutes are out, and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to peruse the 40 pages to see what prompted the decision to cut rates, even though there were concerns over rising inflation. They also discuss RBNZ’s big cut yesterday, with more to come. And they look at gold, which pushed higher, even against a stronger US dollar. Ray puts it down to a lack of choices when it comes to stable currency investments. The Yen, for example, is getting weaker and Europe is being hit with more weak economic data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 8th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US shutdown continues with no end in sight, just a threat from the President not to pay back salary to some furloughed workers, and the prospect of layoffs just days away. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest news and data, including the NY Fed survey that shows consumer inflation expectations have lifted. At home, consumer sentiment fell for the second time in a row yesterday, and the NZ quarterly survey of business optimism didn’t help determine whether the RBNZ will lean to a 25bp or 50bp cut today. It’s still too close to call. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 7th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a session light on data but heavy on geopolitics. Markets reacted firmly as expected, to the surprise win for Sane Takaichi as leader of Japan’s LDP. The resignation of the French Prime Minister yesterday was also a surprise, sending yields higher and a big fall in equities. US equities, meanwhile, continue to rise, including a surge in the price of OpenAI after a data-centre deal with AMD. It added $80 billion to the value of OpenAI and raised flags for those worried about the potential for a tech-bubble. And the US government shutdown moves into day seven. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through a session light on data and heavy on news. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership vote in Japan on Saturday, so is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister. She’s a known supporter of Abenomics, so could its resurgence mean a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is less likely. ‘Yes!’ is the quick answer from NAB’s Taylor Nugent. So what does that mean for bond yields, equities and the Yen today? The other weekend surprise was OPEC+ decision to lift production. We knew it was coming but the size of the increase is well below what many were expecting. Phil and Taylor also discuss Friday’s ISM data from the US and look ahead to a very quiet week, politics aside. And the RBNZ, of course. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB CEO Andrew Irvine returns to the Morning Call to answer your questions. Hear his views on Australia’s investment opportunity from Asia and what he’s doing to make NAB stand out for customers. ‘We have no God-given right to be here’, he says.Phil also relays some pointed questions from listeners; the danger of job losses from AI, NAB’s involvement in a fraudulent loan scandal, pursuing an ESG agenda when the American President believes climate change is a scam, plus the risk of rising global debt, both private and public.Listen in for some frank discussion on The Weekend Edition.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith no non-farm payrolls out in the US today, and no jobless claims numbers last night, attention turns to private data, of which the Challenger jobs survey is one of the more credible reports. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the overnight data supports the idea of a low hiring, low firing economy, although it did also highlight the extent of the DOGE cuts on government workers. There could be many more of those soon as the US President threatens to cut jobs in departments and agencies that do not support his agenda. The Australian economy looks in good shape with household spending rising, although the rate of growth has slowed. And the RBA financial stability review shows households are building up savings, with an increasing buffer for mortgage repayments. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets will have to feel their way through the next few weeks, because the US shutdown means there’s an absence of key government data. No weekly jobless claims today, and no non-farms payrolls tomorrow. Betting suggests it will last longer than two weeks. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market reaction and the implications. They also examine the surprise fall in the ADP jobs report, the ISM manufacturing survey, Japan’s Tankan survey and European inflation numbers. Today Australia’s trade numbers and household spending data will be of most interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNot only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can we tell about the US labour market from the latest data overnight. They also talk about yesterday’s RBA statement and press conference. Did it support NAB’s case that the RBA won’t cut till May? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to today’s RBA meeting. Phil wonders whether the press conference after the rate announcement will support NAB’s position that a cut is not likely now till May. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFriday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient. Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s latest tariffs, the looming US government shutdown and a swag of data for Australia, along with tomorrow’s RBA meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.