NAB Morning Call

Thursday 13th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.The good news from the US is that an end to the shutdown is likely to be voted for in the next few hours. The bad news is that some of the missed data that was expected to start coming out in the next week or so, could well not be published at all. Leaving the risk that the Fed will go to it’s next meeting still flying blind. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long run  average and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks like the US shutdown could end as soon as today, and we can expect a swag of delayed data as soon as next week. The UK Chancellor probably didn’t want to see the data that landed on her desk yesterday morning – unemployment grew faster than expected. But it has added to the expectation of a BoE cut in December.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in annuary. Meanwhile the Aussie is strong, and bond yield are higher after a hawkish talk from the RBA’s Andrew Bauser yesterday, which has many questioning whether the central bank’s easing cycle has already finished. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 10th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSigns of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and the NAB business survey. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to unpack what’s shifting, what’s stalling, and what’s next for tariffs and the US shutdown. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia has for a long time being criticised for being a dig up and ship out economy, and the need to diversify has been talked about for decades. With that in mind, and fresh from the recognition during the COVID emergency of how fragile global supply chains can be, the Australian government established the National Reconstruction Fund. $15 billion was set aside for investment in businesses in growth areas, that will boost the economy, create jobs and drive innovation. Their new CEO is former NAB executive David Gall, who joins Phil to talk through the work of the Fund. What sorts of companies do they work with? How do they measure success? And, importantly, how do they ensure that they are not simply crowding out investment that could be made by commercial investors? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNormally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEurope’s revised PMIs suggest a slow but steady recovery, while U.S. services data came in stronger than expected. There’s plenty to feel optimistic about — despite political turbulence. Donald Trump faces mounting challenges: New York has elected a young Muslim mayor in a historic shift, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing his emergency tariff measures.Meanwhile, markets are in a buoyant mood. Equities are climbing, treasuries are selling off, and sentiment is turning risk-on.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThose who believed we were on the final furlong in the race to stop inflation, will have to think again. Central banks are concerned, and cuts are being pushed back. NAB’s Ray Attrill points to yesterday’s RBA statement that there are uncertainties about whether their policy is too restrictive. In other words, could this mean we’ve already reached the end of the easing cycle? The Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem said they weren’t looking to cut soon; the real question was how long they will hold rates for.Meanwhile, equities took a hit last night, not helped by the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley adding to concerns about debt fuelled growth by the Mag Seven. And the revision to European and US PMIs should be worth watching, because there were some sharp moves in the provisional data that might be washed out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Australian housing sector is certainly picking up, with prices rising and a sharp increase in dwelling approvals last month, particularly for units. An interesting backdrop for today’s RBA meeting. NAB’s Sally Auld says house prices are not targeted by RBA policy, but the wealth effect does increase consumer spending, something which the central bank will be cognisant of. Does that mean the RBA’s next move could be up? That’s a question Phil puts to Sally and one that Michele Bullock is likely to face during the press conference this afternoon. We also look at the latest PMI and ISM manufacturing numbers for the US, showing the wide divide in the two-speed economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 3rd November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets didn’t have a lot to respond to on Friday, with no big data releases and no major surprises in what reports there were. Earnings probably had the biggest influence at the end of the week, with Amazon reporting 20% growth in AWS, providing further evidence of the growth in demand for cloud and AI services. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to pick through the bones from the rest of Friday’s news, including Euro area inflation, Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, Canada’s GDP and another output increase from OPEC+. Plus, a look ahead to this week’s central banks, including the RBA, BoE,, Norges bank and Riksbank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There are clear differences between the Australian and New Zealand economies right now, and Phil explores them with BNZ’s Doug Steele and NAB’s Gareth Spence. Doug talks of New Zealand’s rolling recession, with three years of slow GDP per capita growth, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment. Gareth paints a rosier picture for Australia, where headline GDP has been driven by strong population growth which has helped to lift business confidence. But there are similarities - inflation risks, rising unemployment and no clear answer to stalled productivity. How much of the difference between the two economies can be blamed on the comparative approach by each central bank, and how much room do they have to manoeuvre if things turn south? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump and President Xi have done a deal that staves off the 100% tariff hike, and actually sees existing tariffs fall a little. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why markets aren’t more excited after what Trump called a ‘truly great’ meeting. Meanwhile uncertainty has kept rates on hold for the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Yen was the outlier in currency moves overnight. Today’s Tokyo CPI might indicate whether they made the right call. There was a mixed picture from yesterday’s tech earnings (it’s not good news all the time), with Apple and Amazon reporting shortly. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 30th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC cut rates, but the Fed was very divided, with one dissenter wanting a 50bpcut, the other wanting to keep rates on hold. NAB’s Sally Auld gives her take on the mood of Powell’s press conference, that pushed bond yields and the dollar higher. At home yields and the Aussie dollar pushed higher after a surprise upside for the latest CPI read. NAB is still not expecting a ratee cut before May, and that may not happen if unemployment rises too quickly.The BoJ and ECB meet today, and shortly earnings for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on the day that NVIDIA became a $5 trillion company! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 29th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new intraday high as markets prepare for the Fed’s assumed cut tomorrow, alongside a swag of tech earnings. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through how, despite all that hope, consumer confidence slid in the latest Conference Board survey. Today’s CPE data for Australia will be uber-important in setting the direction and tone for the RBA, whilst the Bank of Canada makes their call overnight tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 28th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the RBA’s Michelle Bullock’s Fireside Chat yesterday.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 27th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThings are about to get very busy. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil at the start of a week that should see off the threat of an extra 100%tariff on China. We will also see rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. For the Fed, the assumption of a cut now seems even more likely after the slower than expected growth in US CPI on Friday. Australian CPI for Q3 is out this week and, to add to the excitement, earnings results for Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Are you ready? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Earlier this week Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese announced a new rare earths deal and confirmation of the AUKUS defence agreement. The market response was fairly tame. Are we becoming desensitised to the plethora of unilateral deals the US has been doing lately, and sceptical that the promises will see the light of day?James Carouso, who has spent 25 years with the US Department of State, suggests this deal is different. It’s key to the US aim of reducing its reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. For Australia it provides an opportunity to support onshore processing.James is a senior foreign policy adviser for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and he’s spent a good few years in Canberra as a member of the team negotiating the free trade deal with Australia, ratified in 2005. He clearly thinks Australia should embrace the opportunity and this new partnership could provide the leverage to ask for a reduction in steel and aluminium tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 24th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump’s sanctions on two big Russian oil producers might be enough to stop India buying from them and could have a profound impact on Putin’s foreign earnings. That’s pushed oil prices higher, whilst equities have been boosted by news that Trump and Xi will meet next week to hammer out a deal.NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market response to the day’s news, plus a preview of the long-awaited CPI numbers, held back because of the government shutdown. There are concerns that it might not be as reliable as previous data. It’s certainly less timely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 23rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 22nd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.