NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 9th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don’t want to trade with China anymore, unless a deal is done. There has been more talk of potential deals. If any of them come to pass it will be an indication that the Trump administration is willing to negotiate, rather than slavishly sticking to a principal of completely balancing trade with each country. Who knows? Certainly, the optimism in the markets early on in the session quickly diminished and stock markets closed well down in the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-08

17:50

Tuesday 8th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approach saw a swift reversal. When it emerged that the story was nothing but fake news and, if anything, the President was digging his heals in harder, markets didn’t immediately return to their session lows. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says part of that could be because more CEOs are speaking out against the tariffs and that could force the plans to be rolled back. But, Phil asks, does that mean market have further to go if it becomes clear that the tariffs will stick, and go beyond a temporary negotiating tool. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-07

18:05

Monday 7th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the next steps. If compromises aren’t found, what happens next? NAB’s Rodrig Catril says they are not forecasting a US recession just yet, although some are – like JP Morgan, for example. Jerome Powell was reasonably circumspect on Friday, saying the higher tariffs could prolong inflation w which could delay the Fed’s response to an economic downturn. Ironically, non-farm payrolls showed a US economy strengthening, but it seems the President is prepared to jeopardise short term economic stability in exchange for a significant change in the pattern of international trade. If that’s’ the case, negotiated deals this week seem unlikely. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-06

17:48

Friday 4th April 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief economist Brian Redican about how Trump’s approach to trade has created uncertainty and how Australia, like other nations, will be looking for trade partners with the same attitude to free trade. And how, with less trade exposure to the US than the likes of Europe and Canada, and a rich seam of rare earth minerals, could this new trade environment could be beneficial for Australia? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-04

23:51

Friday 4th April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on the tariffs charged by supplier nations, but on a relatively crude formula based on the value of exports to the US against the US balance of trade deficit with that country. That makes it rather problematic for countries to fix-lowering tariffs that might not exist in the first place. But could all this be good for Australia. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton, might we be one part of the world where inflation is contained, and interest rates continue their expected downward trajectory? They also talk about non-farm payrolls, because that’s happening today as well. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-03

18:46

Thursday 3rd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you listen. But what happens next? And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, there’s more to come from President Trump, plus any retaliatory moves by other nations. Rodrigo and Phil talk about how the markets reacted in the build up to the US close. Larry Summers says the real unknown is how much damage it will do to the US economy and the difficult position it places the Fed in. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-02

12:11

Wednesday 2nd April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with the White House Press Secretary saying it was her understanding that the tariffs would be applied immediately. The truth is, nobody knows until Donald Trump says it, and even t hen it could change.Data wise we saw a slightly weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number overnight, with a surprisingly high prices paid component. The JOLTS job openings data also came in weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the numbers, as well as reviewing the RBA decision, statement and press conference yesterday. Eurozone inflation also came down a little.Today, tariffs aside, we get Australian building approvals, and the ADP payrolls numbers for the US, ahead of non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

04-01

15:23

Tuesday 1st April 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. NAB’s Skye Masters says US shares did regain some ground during the session, having fallen sharply after Friday’s weaker than expected US data. Oil is also higher, with the US President threatening secondary tariffs on any country buying oil from Russia. The RBA will keep rates on hold today, and Skye says it’ll be interesting to see if the governor pushes back on current market pricing for another 70bp of cuts this year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-31

12:35

Monday 31st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation  of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expectations rising in data that was out for the US on Friday. Yet labour data has been holding up so far - not what you would see in a stagflation economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we could see a delay in cuts from the Fed. Certainly Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed was saying on Friday that she’s not comfortable starting any kind of rate path declines right now. The RBA will also stay on hold on Tuesday as they wait for signs that inflation is contained in an increasingly uncertain global economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-30

14:21

Friday 28th March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pay more from their assets and super funds.   Russell Bricknell is CEO of Juniper Aged Care in Western Australia and says it provides a path for future investment, but there’s a large amount of catching up to do. Many facilities have fallen into states of disrepair as operators struggled to remain solvent. But the bigger issue, says Russell, is how future aged care homes win planning consent, and how a workforce is found to staff these new in-demand facilities: two issues that weren’t addressed in the Aged Care Taskforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-28

21:28

Friday 28th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been hit hardest on the share market. Generally, though, markets took the news in their stride.  There are several Fed speakers talking today. NNAB’s Taylor Nugent says they’ll remain focussed on inflation expectations, but longer-run market measures haven’t followed survey measures higher for now.  UK Gilt yields rose as investors got to grips with yesterday’s budget, and whether the numbers stack up.  Is a tax rise the likely next step? Today the US PCE read for February, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with consumer spending and saving data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-27

13:53

Thursday 27th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also be targeted, pushing copper prices to fresh highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a shift in sentiment emerging from the Fed, with Austin Goolsbee warning of the danger of consumer inflation expectations being mirrored in bond yields, with the potential for interest rates to rise again.  Locally, Australia’s February CPI print came in just as NAB had predicted, which could pave the way for a cut at the next RBA meeting. Labour market data today will provide more detail on the February print. And the UK economy is slowing more, creating no end of challenges for the Chancellor Rachel Reeve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-26

13:36

Wednesday 26th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS markets lost their mojo a little in this session. NAB’s Gavin friend says this was in part due to a weaker than expected consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It showed the lowest number for forward expectations in 12 years. The enthusiasm early in the week for more caveats in the April II tariffs diminished somewhat today as president trump indicated that car tariffs would start almost immediately and that his administration was tapping existing laws to impose broader tariffs. There's more enthusiasm in Europe however where Germany's Ifo business expectations rose and there was renewed hope that Ukraine and Russia will agree to a deal to enable merchant shipping in the Black Sea to operate without being shot at. There's also discussion about yesterday's budget, today's CPI numbers and what could be a very tricky day for the UK chancellor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-25

17:43

Tuesday 25th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Sally Auld. Some of the ‘hope’ might be driven by confusion over tariffs. At a cabinet meeting today President Trump talked about auto and pharma tariffs being imposed soon, without mentioning the broader tariffs expected on April 2nd. Oil prices pushed higher as he announced tariffs on any country buying oil from Venezuela. Also, why has the Yen fallen so far today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

03-24

14:22

Monday 24th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were premature, with the US dollar manages to climb a little and equities seeing a few positive sessions. Today’s PMIs will be telling – do European purchasing managers have a more positive outlook than their American counterparts? As expected, Mark Carney announced a Canadian election over the weekend and used his speech to deliver a few harsh words against the US President, also as expected. And UK Gilt yields rose on Friday as rising government debt added to the country’s economic woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.