NMA Mining Minute

Here's a little German for you: "dunkelflaute" – it translates to dark doldrums, or literally those windless and sunless moments when renewable energy disappears. No wind for turbines, no light for solar panels. As the Germans will tell you, these moments are more common than you might think. And unfortunately, they often happen during periods of peak power demand. Take the heatwave that blanketed the U.S. Midwest and much of the East Coast in June. On the MISO electricity grid – which covers parts of 15 central states stretching from Louisiana all the way up through Minnesota – grid operators were forced to declare a maximum generation event. That means they ordered every power plant available – even those scheduled for maintenance – to crank out as much electricity as possible to avoid rolling blackouts. The system was pushed to its limit. Some power plants met the moment, others simply couldn't. MISO happens to be home to some of the nation's premiere wind power. In fact, the grid has 30 gigawatts of wind capacity—enough under ideal conditions to meet the electricity needs of 20 million homes. But on June 24, when demand was peaking from soaring temperatures, the wind simply stopped blowing. Of the 30 GW of wind capacity, those turbines produced just 2.8 GW of power. The doldrums indeed. So what picked up the slack? You guessed it: The coal and gas power plant fleets. Dispatchable generation, whether you're in Berlin or Baltimore, remains the critical foundation of our electricity system.

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said yesterday that the U.S. needs to accelerate mapping for minerals to better compete with China. "It's not just 'drill baby drill,' it's 'map baby map,'" Burgum said. He added that building everything our country needs is quote "entirely dependent on critical minerals that exist in our country, but they're not mined or processed in our country, because we said, 'We're going to save the planet by killing that industry in America, and we'll let China do it." End quote. Sounds like this administration is trying to change that. Copper prices have hit a new record high in London, driven by concerns over tightening global supply. Prices have risen roughly 30% so far this year. And the Washington Ost has an interesting piece looking at the US-China minerals war, specifically through the lens of Chinese control over tungsten production.  One particularly telling quote from the story com3es from a historian of modern China who says of the minerals struggle between China and the US, quote, "The idea that this has been resolved is wildly premature…They have put the gun back in the holster, but they still have the gun."

U.S. natural gas prices are closing out the year on an upward trend, which may lead to more coal use this winter.  The Energy Information Administration expects in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that the 2025 annual average price of natural gas paid by electric power plants to jump by 37% and the price paid by industrial sector customers to increase by 21% compared with the 2024 averages.   EIA expects prices to continue to climb, all of which is good news for coal. The Wall Street Journal has a piece on Arizona miners that are using sulfuric acid and bacteria to bring online the first new U.S. copper production in more than a decade. The technique uses microbes to strip copper from ores that are otherwise uneconomical to mine. And the EU is unveiling its strategy to lessen China's influence over its supply chains. The strategy aims to de-risk and diversify the bloc's supply chains for key minerals with a funding initiative to support 25-30 strategic projects in the sector. Projects cover rare earths gallium, germanium and lithium, creating a European hub for critical materials that would pool company orders and build joint stockpiles for priority projects.

The US is seeking agreements with eight allied nations to work together to secure supply chains for the computer chips and critical minerals needed for AI. The US will host a meeting at the White House on Dec. 12 with representatives from Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Australia Europe has a cautionary tale for countries looking to change their energy mix. In its rush to lead the green energy transition, it has succeeded in reducing carbon emissions an impressive 30% but it has also been extremely costly for consumers and damaging for the economy. Germany leads the world in residential electricity prices while the U.K. has the highest industrial electricity rates. Energy prices have grown more volatile as more renewables have been introduced on the grid. The result is a staggering cost of living and an inability to attract key economic drivers to the region. Finally, following a great deal of back and forth between the US and China, we're seeing progress on the rare earths front. China has issued the first batch of new rare earth export licenses that should accelerate shipments to certain customers. That should be welcome news to manufacturers around the world who, for now, still significantly depend on sourcing from China.

Electricity demand from U.S. data centers is projected to be 36 percent higher over the next decade than forecast just a few months ago, according to BloombergNEF.  AI power demand is slated to surge by 106 gigawatts by 2035, up from 78 GW estimated in April. And speaking of things expected to surge next year, nearly 70% of institutional investors expect gold prices to continue to climb next year, according to Goldman Sachs. In a new poll, Goldman found 36% think gold will top $5,000 per oz. by the end of 2026, with another third of participants saying they expect it to trade between $4,500 and $5,000 over the same timeframe. Just 5% of those polled see prices dropping to between $3,500 and $4,000. The Wall Street Journal today looks at the challenges associated with recycling e-waste for minerals, primarily the challenge of collecting electronic waste given the lack of infrastructure to get devices directly from homes, scrapyards, manufacturers or collection sites. At the same time, a significant amount of electronic waste is being shipped abroad, and legislation is in the works in Congress to ban most electronic waste exports from the U.S. to help boost mineral supplies at home.

Yesterday the EPA proposed to extend a deadline from October 2028 to October 2031, for certain coal combustion residuals surface impoundments—essentially preventing some coal plants from forced closure. EPA said the extension will ensure electric grid reliability by allowing a small subset of baseload coal-fired power producers to continue operating for an additional three years beyond the original deadline. In very good news for the U.S., Reuters is reporting that the U.S. is making progress in its efforts to wean the country off Chinese rare earths, but it may stand alone in that distinction as other countries have failed to loosen China's grip on their supply chains.  According to a Reuters analysis, by 2030 China will still supply roughly 60% of the world's key magnet-making rare earths by 2030but the U.S. is on course to meet about 95% of its own demand from domestic sources. Global electricity consumption by data centers is forecast to grow by 16 percent in 2025 and double by 2030, driven primarily by the explosive expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), according to new projections from business and technology firm Gartner. The jump clearly presents a significant challenge for energy infrastructure in countries around the world.

As we begin to close out 2025, its worth taking a look at some of the headlines from the last 24 hours and considering what they say about this last year for mining. The US Export-Import Bank said it is set to invest $100 billion to secure supply chains for critical minerals, nuclear energy, and natural gas. The bank's chair described a major shift in global resource strategy with investments in global and US mining projects, drawing from a massive pool of funding aimed at securing materials vital to both U.S. and allied energy and defense infrastructure. It seems the G20 meeting has been all about minerals dealmaking. We reported yesterday on China's minerals supply chain alliance, and now South Africa and the European Union signed a partnership on critical minerals. And after a two-day visit to the UAE, Canada's Prime Minister announced a $1 billion agreement with the UAE to expand critical mineral processing in Canada. Finally, the EU and Australia also announced enhanced partnering in which the EU will be investing directly in Australian mining projects, forging long-term supply agreements, and even considering joint infrastructure ventures. Taking a step back, whether in the US or anywhere else in the world, 2025 has been a year of mining dealmaking, with governments around the world waking up to their supply chain vulnerabilities and taking direct action through a range of strategies to address them.

How much electricity does the growing artificial intelligence market need? Well it's enough that Meta is seeking federal approval to enter the electricity trading business. By becoming a trader in wholesale power markets, Meta hopes to make long-term commitments to purchase electricity from emerging plants and explore resale options. Meta's head of global energy told Bloomberg that, without active involvement from major consumers like Meta, the expansion of power generation isn't happening fast enough. The Department of War is reissuing a tender that was postponed earlier this year for up to $500 million worth of cobalt by the end of the month, with an award expected in early February 2026. The Defense Logistics Agency first sought offers in mid-August for up to 7,500 tons of cobalt over the next five years, but in mid-October cancelled the tender due to "outstanding issues with the Statement of Work" after interested parties missed several deadlines. And as the US continues to work to build its own minerals supply chains and alliances, China is making its own moves. At the Group of 20 leaders' summit in South Africa, China pitched an international alliance for the development of rare earths, with at least 19 nations, including Cambodia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and others participating. Few additional details on the alliance were available.

Yesterday, the Senate approved a Congressional Review Act resolution to reverse a Biden-era land management plan in Wyoming, which effectively banned coal leasing. The House approved the legislation on Tuesday. The action restores the government's ability to allow responsible economic activity on federal lands that are designated for multiple use. And a positive milestone from the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council, which has now added 50 mining projects to its streamlines processes under FAST-41. For years, the National Mining Association advocated for the inclusion of mining projects under the FAST-41 transparency program and they were successfully added in the first Trump administration. Since January, the second Trump administration has moved decisively to use the transparency initiative to unlock America's energy and mineral resources. And the latest numbers show that China's electricity generation from coal jumped in October, even while the country's coal output declined. That means higher prices for fuel supplies and, with coal demand entering its peak season at a time when the country has imposed nationwide output restrictions, more of the country's coal will need to come from overseas.

Yesterday, the Department of the Interior announced four proposed rules to revise Endangered Species Act regulations, reviving a suite of changes from the first Trump administration. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said, "These revisions end years of legal confusion and regulatory overreach, delivering certainty… while ensuring conservation efforts remain grounded in sound science and common sense." And MP Materials has teamed up with the US Department of War to form a joint venture in Saudi Arabia to build a rare earths refinery. The Saudi JV builds on the multi-billion-dollar public-private partnership that MP and the Department of War announced in July to bolster America's rare earth supply chain and reduce its reliance on China. On Capitol Hill today, the House Natural Resources Committee will vote to advance permitting reform—specifically the NMA-backed bipartisan Standardizing Permitting and Expediting Economic Development, or SPEED Act. The NMA's Rich Nolan testified in support of the legislation in early September. And finally, the latest forecast for U.S. power demand is going up… way up. Grid Strategies now forecasts U.S. peak power demand jumping 166 GW in 2030. As the report notes, that's equivalent to adding 15 times the peak demand of New York City in just five years.

Minerals will be front and center today on Capitol Hill with the House Select Committee on China holding a hearing on China's Predatory Pricing, exploring How Beijing Manipulates Global Mineral Prices to Maintain its minerals dominance.   And China and minerals are also the focus in Brussels where U.S.-E.U. cooperation on the minerals challenge is giving way to competition. The Financial Times reports the European Union plans to set up a central authority to coordinate buying and stockpiling of critical minerals. An EU official says the union has become "collateral damage" in the U.S.-China dispute over rare earths and needs to begin stockpiling to keep the U.S. from securing supplies "under our noses." And yesterday, the Department of Energy announced it finalized a $1 billion conditional loan commitment to Constellation Energy to support efforts to restart the Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant. The power generated will be sold to Microsoft to support data center development under a 20-year deal. The Trump administration is a strong proponent of nuclear power and has vowed to quadruple U.S. nuclear generation by 2050, reinforcing the need to ramp up domestic uranium production.  Finally, soaring power demand, including from data centers and the electrification of the economy, could contribute to energy supply shortfalls this winter during biting cold, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned on Tuesday in its latest winter reliability assessment.

Yesterday, the Trump EPA and the Army Corps proposed a narrower definition of the "waters of the U.S.". Trump administration officials said the proposal conforms with Sackett v. EPA, the 2023 Supreme Court ruling that asserted that only wetlands that directly touch a relatively permanent waterway – like a river or lake – fall under the scope of the Clean Water Act. The EPA believes the new definition will clarify decades of confusion over which wetlands and bodies of water require federal permits for construction projects. And according to new analysis, electricity price inflation is having a real impact, with a surge in people falling behind paying their utility bills. Past due balances to utility companies jumped 9.7% annually to $789 between the April-June periods of 2024 and 2025. The increase has overlapped with a 12% jump in monthly energy bills during the same period. And NMA president and CEO Rich Nolan argues in a new op-ed that Congress has a mandate to act on the nation's minerals challenges. He writes in Real Clear Energy, Congress can build on the Trump administration's momentum to reshore supply chains and defang China's mineral weapon with three achievable actions that can immediately help get shovels in the ground – with permitting reform, the Mining Regulatory Clarity Act and a fix for the 45X tax credit rounding out the list.

Both the House and Senate are back to work for a full week this week and there's one thing all seem to agree on: the need to make progress on permitting reform. During the shutdown, lawmakers continued to discuss legislation that could address longstanding permitting issues. First up? This week there will be a markup of the "Standardizing Permitting and Expediting Economic Development – or Speed Act," which would set firmer deadlines within the NEPA process and reduce the judicial review timelines. Moving to the administration, the Department of Energy Friday announced $355 million for two notices of funding opportunities issued by DOE's Office of Fossil Energy to expand domestic production of critical materials essential for advancing U.S. energy production, manufacturing, transportation and national defense. The first funding opportunity provides up to $275 million for American industrial facilities capable of producing minerals from existing industrial and coal byproducts. The second provides up to $80 million to establish Mine of the Future proving grounds for real-world testing of next-generation mining technologies. Finally, looking abroad, the US hopes to have a rare earths deal with China done by Thanksgiving, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Recall that the US and China announced a framework agreement last month, with Washington agreeing not to impose 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports in turn for access to rare earths minerals and magnets.

Next Wednesday, the House Select Committee on China will hold a hearing on China's Predatory Pricing, exploring How the Chinese Communist Party Manipulates Global Mineral Prices to Maintain Its Global minerals Dominance. Among those testifying will be Jonathan Evans, Chief Executive Officer of Lithium Americas. We'll certainly be tuning in.   In industry news, Ivanhoe Electric has secured a $200 million bridge loan from a syndicate of banks to support its construction of its Santa Cruz project in Arizona. The company is working to begin construction in the first half of 2026 and then begin copper cathode production in late 2028.   And we close today remembering a hero. After days of search and rescue efforts, the body of mining foreman Steve Lipscomb was recovered yesterday. Lipscomb, who was also a Marine Corps veteran, became trapped Saturday, after his crew made contacted with an unknown water pocket, flooding the area where the team was working. He was last seen ensuring that every member of his crew made it out safely. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family.

The longest government shutdown in history is now in the rear view mirror, Congress is back and the government is back in business. And while we're hoping that this means the Congress will return to addressing key priorities—permitting reform among them--the deal only funds the government until January 30, so we could be right back here in a little over two months. A 50-page report from the bipartisan U.S. House Select Committee on China finds that China for decades has worked to manipulate minerals prices, using its control of the minerals markets as an economic weapon to expand its manufacturing sector and its geopolitical influence. The report makes a range of recommendations, including price controls and increased oversight of price reporting agencies. And Reuters has an interesting piece on 6 states to watch as increasing natural gas prices drive a shift towards more coal use. Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina and Wisconsin - have roughly equal-generation shares from coal and gas within their electricity mixes, and are in the best position to use coal as a price buffer when gas prices are up. Last year, all 6 states sharply boosted their coal use while decreasing gas-fired generation.

It's an exciting day here in Washington. The House returns to DC for a vote that could, finally, end the government shutdown. And it's another day, another coal plant that's needed to keep the lights on. Earlier this week, Xcel Energy joined the Colorado Energy Office to file a petition asking state utility regulators to extend the lifespan of the Comanche 2 coal power plant, which is currently scheduled to cease operations by Dec. 31. The coalition wants to keep the plant online through 2026. Finally, looking abroad, the International Energy Agency warned in its annual World Energy Outlook that China's control of the minerals supply chain creates "vulnerabilities" for the rest of the world.  In its press release, the IEA said, quote, "A single country is the dominant refiner for 19 out of 20 energy-related strategic minerals, with an average market share of around 70 percent. Geographic concentration in refining has increased for nearly all key energy minerals since 2020, and particularly for nickel and cobalt." It called for "stronger action by governments" to boost mineral supply.

When it comes to the government shutdown, there's a light at the end of the tunnel – let's hope it's not a train. The Senate worked through the weekend to come up with a compromise deal that would guarantee federal workers back pay from the shutdown, and bring some who were laid off back to work, under a plan that would keep most agencies funded through January. Although it seems there will be enough votes to get this done, it's not a done deal yet.  Senator Rand Paul is objecting to a provision in the Agriculture spending bill and the House will need to ratify whatever the Senate does. In a sign things are looking rosier with US-China trade relations, China yesterday lifted a year-long ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US. China's commerce ministry said it will pause its export ban on these minerals and related end-use items for about one year. And top miner Barrick is reporting a record quarter. Barrick reported third-quarter revenue of $4.14 billion, and operating cash flow reaching $2.4 billion in the third quarter—that's an 82% increase compared to the same period last year. Free cash flow jumped to $1.5 billion, up 274% year-over-year, reflecting the company's improved operational performance.

Acknowledging the essential role mined materials play in national security, economic stability and supply chain resilience, yesterday the USGS announced that it was expanding its so-called list of Critical Minerals, adding minerals such as boron, copper, metallurgical coal, phosphate, silver and uranium. The move is a smart one by the administration, but here at the National Mining Association, we believe what is considered critical today might change tomorrow given both the rapid pace of innovation and changing global events. Emphasizing just how tricky it is to wean ourselves off of our minerals dependence on China, and just how important government support is, MP Materials recorded a wider loss in the third quarter after it stopped selling to China as agreed in its equity deal with the U.S. government. And China's Ministry of Commerce announced today that it had suspended for a year export controls that it issued last month. The controls lifted include those on the transfer out of China of rare earth processing equipment. The announcement notably, however, did not include any information on the general licenses for the export of critical minerals that the White House were said were part of the recent deal between China and the US. The suspension of these rules is set to last until Nov. 10 next year.

As perhaps a sign of things to come with overseas producers, The Financial Times reports Vedanta Resources is shifting ownership of its Zambian copper operations into a U.S.‐based subsidiary, CopperTech Metals. A significant driver of the move: an effort to tap U.S. financing and benefit from Trump administration efforts to secure mineral supply chains. And in Colorado, debate is heating up over the future of two units at the state's largest coal power plants -- Craig Unit 1 and Comanche Unit 2 – set to for retirement. Citing a grid reliability emergency, supporters of the two plants have petitioned the Department of Energy to issue emergency orders to keep the plants running. It's a development worth watching. And as testament to the remarkable ingenuity and magic of mining, Resolution Copper has reached a major milestone with the completion of its multi-year rehabilitation and deepening of its historic No. 9 Shaft. The refurbished and deepened shaft now extends to a final depth of 6,898 feet underground, nearly five Empire State Buildings tall. It's a significant step in paving the way for production of one nation's most important new sources of copper and critical minerals.

The results are in. Democrats running on affordability and energy politics won big on Election Day across several states. Politico reports yesterday's success all but ensures next year's midterms will have Democrats' message on high electricity prices front and center. Looking north, Canada's government has released its new federal budget, and mining is in the spotlight. The proposed budget includes a $1.4bn sovereign fund for critical minerals, and widens exploration tax credits to a dozen other minerals. The sovereign fund will make equity investments, provide loan guarantees and enter into offtake agreements for eligible projects and companies. And today the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the legality of most of President Trump's tariffs. The president has declared emergencies under a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, Canada and dozens of other countries. A coalition of small businesses and states say the president has overstepped his authority. President Trump has called the tariff case "one of the most important … in the history of our country".