Neutrality Studies

I open with the hardest questions in this talk: did the Iran war come from one president or from a whole system, and did Washington follow Israel or share the same goal from the start? I sit down with Dr. Michael Brenner, emeritus professor of international affairs at the University of Pittsburgh, for a sharp and unsettling look at empire, elite consensus, and the road to Iran.Links:Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.comOpt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academicMerch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction00:00:38 American power and the road to Iran00:08:53 Channel note and Substack00:09:10 Trump and the long elite consensus00:20:23 Israel and US strategic overlap00:31:54 Western racism and imperial culture00:48:06 Collapse of limits in Western politics00:53:14 Trump and the Iran war endgame

From regime change to permanent conflict, the war on Iran is not an exception and not an accident. The dark forces of violence in Washington once again won out, but the victory of the warmongers might not be what it seems. While militarism, neoconservative strategy, evangelical fundamentalism, and, most of all, an unwavering alignment with Israel have pushed the United States from one confrontation to the next, the war-making capacity of the US is waning, and the signal this sends to us "allies" across the globe is not what Washington would like it to be. My guest today is again, Dr. David Gibbs from the University of Arizona.Support us on Substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.comOur shop: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com Dr. David Gibbs: https://dgibbs.arizona.edu

Is Munich signalling a transatlantic break, or a tighter lockstep? Well.... Slogans of “European autonomy” are clearly just a cover for deeper NATO integration. Today I’m joined by researcher and writer Nell Bonilla, who runs the Substack Worldlines and is developing a “bunker state” framework to describe a shift from public welfare planning to permanent securitization. We use Munich 2026 as a window into burden shifting, elite unity behind staged disagreement, and the pressure campaign toolbox used against states like Iran.Links:Nell Bonilla Substack (Worldlines): https://themindness.substack.comNachDenkSeiten: https://www.nachdenkseiten.deNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction and topic setup00:01:33 Bunker state framework00:04:51 Munich as synchronization ritual00:09:04 Open burden shifting and integration00:17:01 Russia China and elite cohesion00:24:23 Feudalism to capitalism roots00:37:10 No reverse gear after the Cold War00:48:04 Iran and non-kinetic warfare tools00:57:01 Building alternatives and closing remarks

Regime change in Iran, Kremlin threat perception, trust collapse in diplomacy, Europe boxed into living with Russia or fighting it. I sit down again with Dr. Rein Müllerson, an Estonian academic and former advisor to Mikhail Gorbachev, to map the logic he sees behind Iran, Ukraine, NATO expansion, and a US divide and rule playbook.Links:Russia in Global Affairs: https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction and setup00:00:21 Iran war and Russia’s reading of it00:05:13 Kremlin stakes and regime change fears00:06:20 Oil shock and military depletion effects00:13:43 Diplomacy as cover and trust collapse00:21:20 Divide and rule thesis and article frame00:22:02 Russia and NATO integration rejection00:31:04 Ukraine as proxy and neutrality bargain00:48:42 Europe facing Russia or war00:55:48 Where to find the article and closing remarks

Tehran under bombardment, Iran’s leverage in the Gulf, and the price of ending the war all come up fast. I’m joined again by Professor Seyed Marandi in Tehran, and we talk through the strikes, the Strait of Hormuz, US military assets, and the hard question of what “victory” would even mean.Links:Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction and Tehran update00:05:42 Hormuz pressure and Gulf escalation00:10:04 End conditions and compensation00:14:39 Evangelical politics and holy war claims00:19:58 Ground invasion and regional proxy risks00:24:36 Carrier groups and naval escalation00:28:42 Gulf neutrality and regional order reset00:33:00 War sustainability and bombing limits00:35:44 Diplomacy channels and distrust of deals

The US-Israeli Axis is unleashing hell over Tehran. But Iran seems far from giving up. On the contrary, as they absorb the attacks, they are drawing in the aggressor regime. And as crazy as it may seem, the US is giving us all the indications that it is preparing for a suicidal ground offensive. Links:Stanislav Krapivnik on X: https://x.com/StasKrapivnikStanislav Krapivnik on YouTube (Mr Slavic Man): https://www.youtube.com/@mrslavikmanNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction and war snapshot00:00:39 Oil war and strategic aims00:03:15 Unconditional surrender and civilian toll00:08:08 Desalination targets and water crisis00:14:14 Iran endgame and invasion reality00:16:16 Boots on ground routes and logistics00:25:04 End times ideology and Pentagon influence00:49:52 Iran strategy blinds US and drains missiles01:01:37 Closing warning and final takeaway

Four deaths, one goal: Maintaining the Empire of War. The killings of JFK, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King Jr., and RFK removed the men who wanted to change the nation into a force for peace and restraint. I sit down with author and peace activist Jim Douglass to trace the pattern and the stakes.Links:Jim Douglass books at Orbis Books: https://orbisbooks.com/products/martyrs-to-the-unspeakable-vol-2Jim Douglass writings archive at Ratical: https://www.ratical.org/Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.comOpt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academicMerch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Welcome and four assassinations00:03:11 Dates scapegoats and blame00:05:13 CIA Angleton and cover scripts00:14:05 Deep machinery of US power00:20:21 Cold War peace and Kennedy diplomacy00:26:10 Hiroshima to Iran war logic and profit00:35:43 Racism propaganda and violent ideas00:45:14 Poor People’s Campaign and courage now01:00:45 Conclusion

The rupture of the West with its "values" runs much deeper than we thought. An entire elite habitat of unaccountable psychopaths is running the largest military power in human history and is intent on destroying its enemies within and without. Former Maltese foreign minister Evarist Bartolo joins me to discuss.Links:Evarist Bartolo website: https://evaristbartolo.mtTimes of Malta: https://timesofmalta.comNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Opening and rupture debate00:00:44 Epstein files and oligarch habitat00:04:48 Inequality feeds war state00:09:01 Plutocracy and Citizens United fallout00:13:05 Empire logic and sovereignty wars00:20:32 Iran brinkmanship and deterrence trap00:34:11 Building an anti-war public00:37:02 Uncolonizing the West and migration00:47:08 Shared destiny and closing notes

There are various reports of US military commanders telling their soldiers that the purpose of the Iran War is to bring about armageddon and the Second Coming of Christ. Pete Hegseth is himself an evangelical nut with two Christian fundamentalist tattoos, and there is a "White House Faith Office" run by an evangelist war-nut. Zionism (Jewish and Christian) is all about this stuff. So what if the Iran War is not actually a "rational-secular" war of the neocons for the purpose of projecting US power, but if it's an irrational war of religious fanatics who want the war for war's sake because that is part of god's divine plan? This would change the calculations about the nature of this travesty fundamentally.... and it might put Jerusalem's Al Aqsa Mosque in direct danger.Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com

If you kill the leader of an entire religion, and start a war of aggression during a country's holiest month—the equivalent of being attacked in the West right before Christmas—you better be damn sure you have a swift way to victory. With every day this war drags on, the pain on the US and its regional allies—including Isreal, the primary reason for the war—increases. And Iran knows this. Professor Marandi tells me that Iran has been preparing for this type of scenario for decades. There are reasons why all their important military infrastructure is deep under ground. Listen to Dr. Marandi, Professor at the University of Tehran explaining what it means to be in the city of attack and how the Iranians are reacting to the US' largest assault on the region and on International Law.Support us on the Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com

Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comSteven Starr: https://thebulletin.org/biography/steven-starr/

Analyst mentioned in the video: Iván Ramírez de Arellano (https://x.com/JominiW)Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudiesNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com

Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com

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After 4 years of all-out war in Europe it is high time for peace. A german alliance of thinkers, journalists and a former Ex-NATO General have submitted a proposal to finally end the bloody Ukraine war. But the EU is still immovable.I’m joined again by Michael von der Schulenburg, Member of the European Parliament and longtime UN/OSCE peace negotiator. We talk on the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war and the uncomfortable gap between public war rhetoric and the hard limits of real diplomacy. Michael explains the peace proposal his group drafted, the letters sent to EU leaders, and the political climate that treats negotiation itself like a taboo. We also dig into collapsed arms control, the fading “red lines” of nuclear risk, and the way Ukraine’s future gets discussed in rooms far from the front.Links:Europe Needs Peace: https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/europa-braucht-jetzt-den-mut-zum-frieden/Open Letters to Kaja Kallas and Roberta Metsola: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/p/open-letter-to-kaja-kallas-and-robertaMichael von der Schulenburg (website): https://michael-von-der-schulenburg.com/Michael von der Schulenburg (European Parliament profile): https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/256966/MICHAEL_VON%2BDER%2BSCHULENBURG/homeNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Anniversary setting and opening stakes00:01:40 Letters to EU leaders and peace proposal00:06:38 OSCE vision, Paris Charter, ignored security00:12:20 Deadlock mindset and endings in past wars00:19:41 US-Russia track and Europe as spoiler00:26:20 Military realism and silencing peace voices00:33:22 Propaganda lock-in and breaking the frame00:37:10 Backchannel attempts and Ukraine collapse risk00:45:21 Where the letters will be published and close

YouTube: https://youtu.be/mj5-wmnZBeQCan “limited” nuclear war be planned on European soil, or only survived in fantasy? Can preparation for nuclear use ever make sense once Berlin-scale firestorms, shelter deaths, and fallout are put on the table?I’m Pascal Lottaz (Kyoto University), joined by Ted Postol (MIT professor emeritus, nuclear weapons researcher) and Rainer Rupp (German former intelligence professional with NATO experience). Ted walks through the real physical effects of a single airburst over Berlin, then Rainer connects that reality to the 1983 war scare, Able Archer, and the dangerous gap between nuclear planning and what nuclear weapons actually do.Links:Able Archer 83: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83Operation RYAN: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_RYANNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction and nuclear war premise00:01:06 One detonation over Berlin setup00:05:02 Fireball heat and shockwave basics00:13:08 Thermal burns and blast at 5 km00:22:00 Firestorms shelters and mass death00:26:21 1983 war scare Able Archer and RYAN00:43:11 Pentagon view submarines and accident risk00:53:14 Leadership blind spots and short warning time01:09:42 2026 Europe nuclear debate and closing remarks

Support us on Substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com Our shop: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com Dr. Pietro ShakarianLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pietro-shakarian-7a792563/?originalSubdomain=amHomepage: https://people.aua.am/team_member/dr-pietro-a-shakarian/

Can Europe unify without repeating empire and breakup cycles? Is the euro a trap without a shared budget, and could real-time AI planning replace markets? I sit down with Captain Ivo Yotsov, professor at the Nikola Vaptsarov Naval Academy, to map six failed unifications and a choice for Europe.Links:Ivo Yotsov ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0300-9417Ivo Yotsov on ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ivo-YotsovNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:02 Liberal institutionalism vs realism00:03:09 Six unifications from 800 to Napoleon00:12:41 German order and the eurozone trap00:20:00 Yugoslavia and the center-periphery split00:24:19 Borders shift and the escape problem00:26:01 Fourth theory and real-time planned economy00:33:10 Direct democracy and system control00:38:56 Museum Europe or reindustrialized Europe

Original video: https://youtu.be/F5RriRhSF5sA US armada off Iran, airlifts into the region, and Geneva talks running in parallel with Russia-Ukraine negotiations—signal for a real strike, or a pressure bluff meant to force a nuclear deal and spark unrest at home?In this episode I’m joined by Ian Proud, former UK diplomat and the voice behind The Peacemonger, to weigh the Iran buildup, Israel’s trigger risk, and the odd Geneva setup with Trump’s inner-circle negotiators. We also dig into Europe’s role in blocking an end to the Ukraine war, the EU’s push for militarization and central power, and the financial and political bombshell of fast-tracking Ukraine into EU structures. We close on the Russia-China-Iran triangle, hedging vs alliance talk, and the Hormuz nightmare scenario hanging over global energy.Links:Ian Proud Substack The Peacemonger: https://thepeacemonger.substack.com/Ian Proud YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@IanProudIan Proud on X: https://x.com/proud_diplomatNeutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comTimestamps:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:36 Iran buildup, flotilla scale, pressure tactics00:05:02 Israel strike risk and US entanglement00:06:42 Geneva dual-track talks and war theater swapping00:10:16 Witkoff and Kushner credibility and sequencing00:14:45 Missile demands, JCPOA legacy, Europe in lockstep00:20:44 EU militarization, enemy politics, sovereignty pushback00:23:49 Ukraine fast-track EU plan and budget reality00:37:19 China Russia Iran coordination and Hormuz risk00:40:59 Hedging logic and closing remarks