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Odd Lots

Author: Bloomberg

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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

431 Episodes
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Official inflation measures in the U.S. remain elevated and so, of course, this has a lot of people thinking about the 1970s. Not only was this the last time the U.S. had a sustained period of high inflation, it was the period during which many of today's policymakers really started to form their views about managing the economy. On this episode, we speak with Dan Alpert, a managing partner at Westwood Capital, and a fellow at the Cornell Law School, about his new report on inflation risks, and what he sees as false comparisons to the 1970s. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Bitcoin just hit an all-time high and crypto mania is in full swing. One of this year's big winners has to be Axie Infinity, a blockchain-based game, whose token AXS has surged over 200x just since the start of the year. Axie is a pioneer of what's come to be known as a "play to earn" model, whereby participants who play the game can actually make money. Its popularity, for example, has exploded in the Philippines, where numerous people are making a living from it. But how does it work? And is it sustainable? On this episode we speak to the game’s co-founder Aleksander Leonard Larsen about how it all works. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Back in January, we spoke with Jeff Currie, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs. At the time, he was bullish on the commodities complex for several reasons. Since then, of course, we've seen several markets go on an absolute tear and to a degree that's taken even him by surprise. The bad news for commodities consumers? We still haven't hit max pain. On this episode, we speak again with Jeff about what's driving prices higher and why he sees stronger price increases over the next several months. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
We've been covering global supply chain pressures almost since the beginning of the year on Odd Lots. And with each episode the question is "ok, so when will things normalize?" But basically, not only have things not normalized, things have gotten much worse. So why can't the system stabilize? On this episode, we speak again with Ryan Petersen, the CEO of the logistics firm Flexport, on how supply chain pressures have gotten even worse since the last time we spoke with him in the spring. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The implosion of Evergrande continues. And nobody knows exactly how the losses will be distributed. What will be the impact on creditors or people who have put down payments on homes that haven't been built yet? And what will the ripple effects be on other credits? In addition to the financial fallout, there's also a macro angle. Real estate is extremely important to the Chinese economy for all kinds of reasons. And what happens in China has effects on all of its trading partners. To explain what comes next, we spoke with Peking University Finance Professor and Senior Carnegie Fellow Michael Pettis. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We start with an examination of long Covid, a mysterious new illness that has stumped doctors attempting to treat symptoms that last for months and potentially years. It has changed the way hospitals work and forced healthcare officials to prepare for the next pandemic. Covid has also opened the door to revolutionary technology: messenger RNA vaccines. It’s a technology that never could have been proven so quickly outside the crucible of that first pandemic year, 2020, and it holds big implications for the future of medicine. Breakthrough launches on Oct. 19. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The Federal Reserve has a lot on its plate at the moment. Not only are "transitory" inflation pressures proving to be more stubborn than expected, but unemployment remains relatively high even as the U.S. economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, there are also technical challenges that the central bank now faces as it gets closer to tapering its asset purchases. Finally, there's the possibility of an imminent U.S. debt crisis as Washington continues to wrangle over raising the limits on federal borrowing. On this episode, we speak with Joseph Wang, a.k.a "Fed Guy," to talk about all the difficulties facing the Fed right now. Wang is a former trader on the Fed's open market desk and has first-hand experience in how debt ceiling brinkmanship can affect money markets. He gives his thoughts on what would happen if there were a technical default, how we should be thinking about U.S. Treasuries right now, why crypto may have changed everything, plus insights into how the central bank actually makes its decisions. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Every few years, people are reminded of the weird law the United States has: the debt ceiling. Congress has to vote affirmatively to raise the total outstanding legal stock of debt the country can take on. If Congress fails to vote in favor of it, you could see a theoretical debt default, with devastating consequences. Sometimes the vote is routine and easy. Sometimes it's contentious, as it was in 2011. But arguably there's an easy solution that could avoid these fights altogether: A provision in the law which gives the Treasury Secretary the unilateral right to create platinum coins of any denomination. While this sounds like a joke, there's a serious argument that it offers a robust legal path out of the problem. On this episode we speak with Rohan Grey, a professor at Willamette University College of Law and one of the foremost experts on the legality of the coin maneuver, on how it works in practice and in theory. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
For years, people have talked about China's ongoing process of opening up, or liberalizing its economy. And yet lately it's taken strong moves that seem to indicate a change in direction. It's cracked down on some of its largest tech companies while also allowing its real estate sector to cool off considerably, as we've seen with the stress on Evergrande. On this Odd Lots, we speak with UMass Amherst professor Isabella Weber, the author of the new book How China Escaped Shock Therapy: The Market Reform Debate. She explores China's big vision for making markets work in the pursuit of its ideas on socialism, and how the recent moves fit into a much broader, ongoing strategy. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
The pandemic has obviously sent shockwaves throughout the supply chain. And, despite hopes of normalization, things might even be getting worse. The number of ships, for example, waiting to unload at the Port of Los Angeles has continued to grow. And it seems like every day another company talks about various shortages. So what does it mean for our commercial rail system? On this episode, we speak with Ian Jefferies, the President and CEO of the Association of American Railroads, to discuss the state of rail, how the industry has adapted, and the work it will take to get things back to normal. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Over the last several months, inflation has risen at a pace significantly faster than what economists have expected. Markets, and perhaps the Fed, take some solace in the fact that it can largely be tied to economic disruptions from the pandemic, and prove to be "transitory". But is it really transitory? And when will it fade? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Julia Coronado and Laura Rosner-Warburton, the co-founders of the firm Macropolicy Perspectives, to get a better handle on what's going on, how long it will last, and the ramifications for the future. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
If you've been following the wild ride that is Chinese real estate, then you've definitely heard of Evergrande. The price of its shares and bonds has been tumbling lately amid concerns about its cash flow and its model. But what really is Evergrande? And who stands to lose in a theoretical restructuring? On this episode, we speak with Travis Lundy, an independent analyst based in Hong Kong who publishes on Smartkarma, about the company's business model and what comes next. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
We've been talking about chips on Odd Lots for almost a year now. Thanks to a unique combination of events and constraints, capacity to make more semiconductors is incredibly tight. One industry that's lost out significantly is cars, as automakers are still cutting production due to an inability to source chips. On this episode, we speak with return guest Stacy Rasgon, a Managing Director and U.S. semiconductor analyst at Bernstein to discuss the current state of the industry, and why things are still so messed up. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Over the last several months, Chinese authorities have undertaken a sweeping campaign of change. We've seen crackdowns on big tech and fintech companies (like Ant Financial and Didi), online education companies, and now even the playing of video games. Investors in key sectors have gotten clobbered by the new rules. So what is the goal and what is the endgame here? On this episode, we speak to Dan Wang, a China tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, who breaks it all down. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
There's a lot happening in the plumbing of the financial system. The Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility has seen huge takeup from financial market participants seeking to park excess cash. Meanwhile, the central bank has also announced the start of a new standing repo facility. And, of course, we're nearing the start of tapering, when the Fed will start to wind down its asset purchases. On this episode, we bring back Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Pozsar to talk about everything that's going on right now. He describes a system awash with dollars that no one wants, and walks us through what that means for broader markets. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Passive investing is kind of boring. You dump your money in an index fund and that's it. The industry hasn't really seen big innovation since ETFs were invented in the 1990s. Enter custom indexing. Custom indexing allows asset managers to create bespoke indices for their clients. Interest in the space is already booming, with Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and JPMorgan all making acquisitions in the space. But what exactly is the difference between investing in a custom index versus something like the S&P 500? And why haven't custom indices been done before? On this episode we speak with Patrick O'Shaughnessy, CEO of OSAM and the host of the podcast "Invest Like the Best", about direct investing. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
When people think about what inflation is, they might first think about some broad index like the CPI. What does the the CPI really tell us? And how is it constructed? And how much does its rise and fall relate to the state of the macro-economy? On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, a longtime veteran of both the buy and sell-side, who is now the founder and president of Inflation Insights. Omair knows inflation index construction better than anyone, and he walks us through what's happening right now, and how he thinks about forecasting where inflation will go. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
There's obviously a lot of interest in crypto and DeFi these days. And while it's growing rapidly, it's still not cutting much into traditional finance business lines. For the most part, trading on blockchains is slow and costly. But some projects don't accept the premise that blockchains have to be slow and inefficient. Solana is an Ethereum competitor whose native token has been soaring. And unlike Ethereum, its transactions are cheap and ultrafast. So what tradeoffs does it make? And what projects are being built on top of it? On this episode, we speak with Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko and Kanav Kariya of Jump Trading, who is involved with an oracle project called Pyth. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Nearly 200 years ago, the colonialist French power granted independence to Haiti. But it did so under the brutal condition that it pay 150 million francs in exchange for its freedom. This was a staggering sum that imposed a staggering imposition on the Haitian economy. And there's good reason to believe that that initial debt contributed to the ongoing poverty in the country. On this episode, we speak with law professor Mitu Gulati and economist Ugo Panizza about this odious debt, the significance of this burden, and the ongoing efforts for Haiti to obtain reparations. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Over the last week and a half, the world has watched in shock at the dizzying speed of the collapse in Afghanistan. Events are still unfolding, so the future remains extremely uncertain. One former official who has been outspoken in recent days is Ajmal Ahmady, who was running Afghanistan's central bank on an interim basis right up until the government fell. On this episode, we speak with Ahmady about what operations at the bank looked like in relatively normal times, how events transpired in the government's final days, and the future of Afghanistan's economy under Taliban rule. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
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Comments (27)

Gene

@4/1lms /m,e9㎝@$ @gmail.com/ @n.,

Oct 20th
Reply

Gene

+7_4747 17.4

Oct 20th
Reply

vikx01

Almost 10% of what he says is just 'like'.

Jul 22nd
Reply

Alex King

well worth listening to for current issies in supply chain logistics

Jun 14th
Reply

Gihan Wickramaratne

do

Apr 29th
Reply

Craig

who's typing while the guest is speaking? joe? tracey?

Apr 4th
Reply

Newman Isacat

unless you're gonna comment on your own boss and "inequity", bloomberg, this is trash

Mar 5th
Reply

Martin Baba

Overall good episode, but mentioning Singapore for large semiconductor foundry (what's in Singapore?) and not mentioning Samsung?

Jan 25th
Reply

Todd Reynolds

Qualcomm had this in laptop products with MSFT (#windowsRT) in stores before Apple even announced they were working on the M1. There are also Chromebooks, etc. The migration away from INT started a while ago. Servers are also moving to ARM. This guy should have done some more homework before the interview.

Jan 3rd
Reply

larry g

Great listen. Viktor has some excellent insights. However- Re shift in values from freedom and personal liberties at all costs (baby boomers) to equality with costs (recent generations); is it not common for most 20 somethings over the last 200 years to be idealistic and prioritize equality/fairness which soon shifts with age into earnings/savings growth, tax minimization, and overall personal gain?

Oct 7th
Reply

ncooty

@21:06: What a bunch of crap. I had to stop listening shortly after hearing "alpha creation," measurement "via our modelling," and "now-casting." Gag. Another non-value-adding mountebank in the financial industry trying to hide his ignorance of methods, validity, etc. via vague, useless, or absurd neologisms and euphemisms. If he says enough words, idiots will think he's earned his portfolio management fee (nonsensically calculated as a % of assets, of course).

Sep 20th
Reply

larry g

Great episode. Personal thoughts- Not so sure re the direct interdepency of capitalism and democracy, but hmm, maybe, kind of, sometimes. Disinflation not going anywhere as long as globalization lives or until technological advancement hits the wall.

Sep 6th
Reply

David Smith

The guest is almost inaudible.

May 18th
Reply

Emmanuel Chukwu

The stone age did not end because we ran out stones. 👏🏾

Mar 16th
Reply

Matthew Mendez

this podcast has an Austrian economics edge to it 😎🙌💯🦸‍♂️ #economics #austrian #thenewmainstream

Dec 9th
Reply

ayush aggarwal

great listen! spotting a millennial is easy.... 95% of millenials have suffered losses trading crypto!

Dec 5th
Reply

Rbgnl67

What a horrible podcast! W.O.T.(waste of time) All 3 people on the podcast are ill informed on Trading on a whole. If they really do know something, they didn't show it.

Nov 13th
Reply (4)

larry g

While Mark makes some good points, of course the main question is when is the right time to be out? Now? Plus another 5%? Plus another 10%? Or perhaps once it's on the decline? That sai, should retail ever get out? If you're already above retirement age and don't want to risk any loss then a conservative approach is warranted. But if you're young and have time ahead why risk getting the timing wrong. Next question- Mark is looking for a 20% correction. Mind you 'correction'. Then what? V shaped recovery? Or trawling 20% lower levels for prolonged extended time frames? The answer to those expectations dictates strategy. History's lesson here has been clear. Last point- While Mark overweights the trade deal, personally I would underweight that impact calling it mostly theater. It's politics and will be timed to garner maximum political benefit. As alternative indicators to timing the turn, because it will come as it's a question of when not if, I'd suggest 1- liquidity (as mentioned by Mark), 2- Buybacks which have had a huge impact on price, and 3- Employment. Once employment starts to drop the whole cycle turns. Good luck and thanks for a great episode.

Jul 17th
Reply (1)

space_junk

Why would you want to interview those racist wankers?

Jun 19th
Reply

שי רוזנפלד 99.7 כול נצרת עלית ו הסביבה

שי רוזנפלד שדרן

Jun 13th
Reply
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