Odd Lots

Trump has announced that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is going to be his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell. The responses to the news are split among some interesting lines. People like Neil Dutta have been highly critical, while at the same time, the pick has earned praise from Jason Furman, who was the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. So who is Kevin Warsh? And why is this pick particularly controversial? On this episode, we talk with Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, who walks us through Warsh's history of commenting on and executing monetary policy. He argues that in addition to having gotten some big calls wrong (particularly in the years surrounding the GFC), Warsh has a history of aligning his policy views with partisan consideration. We also talk about the challenges Warsh will have establishing credibility within the FOMC, as well as challenges that may arise the next time the Fed has to step in during a period of crisis. Read more:Fed’s Musalem Says It Would Be ‘Unadvisable’ to Lower RatesCarney, Macklem Congratulate Warsh on Federal Reserve Nomination Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The big story this year is the surge in metals. And it's really all metals. The ultimate industrial metal, copper, has been on a massive tear, but so has gold, which has very few industrial uses. And then, of course, silver has seen a blistering rally, in part due to massive buying in China. On this episode, we bring back the man who saw this coming years ago, Carlyle partner Jeff Currie. Prior to joining Carlyle, Currie was a top commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs, and has been calling for the emergence of a brand new supercycle for years now. In this episode, he explains the drivers of this supercycle, and why he thinks we're in the very early days of what will be a multi-year run. Read more:Gold Retreats in Sudden Selloff After Breaking Through $5,500China’s Metals Mania Sends Copper Soaring Past $14,500 a Ton Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration says it wants to kick start private investment in Venezuela now that it's captured Maduro. And Ukraine is eventually going to need a massive rebuild. But what is it like for a big multinational to actually operate in these types of places? In this episode, we speak with Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, the cofounders of agricultural consultancy AgrisAcademy and former long-time Cargill employees. Jeff previously ran Cargill's Venezuelan business and Mike was the company's first employee in another geopolitical hotspot: Ukraine. We talk about the challenges they faced in these two locations, including dollar shortages, corruption, and security threats, and their sometimes creative solutions to them.Read more:Venezuela Leader Pressed From All Sides Over Oil Industry PlansUkraine Says It Attacked Small Oil Refinery in Southern Russia Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the mega-themes of the economy is that the big keep getting bigger. You see it in technology, where the megacap software companies are outperforming their smaller peers. And you see it in finance, where the world's biggest banks keep growing their share within the industry. Across multiple fields, there are clear advantages to size and scale that keep accruing. But what does it take to get to the very top, and what are the real advantages to size and scale? PNC Financial is one of the biggest banks in the country, though not quite as big as names like JPMorgan or Bank of America. So what does it take to grow in such a mature industry? And what kind of advantages accrue to the large players? On this episode, we talk to CEO Bill Demchak in a wide ranging conversation about the state of the industry. He explains why they're still building physical bank branches, why it's not a good time to make acquisitions, and how one bank stands out from another. We also talk about the changing regulatory environment, and what the firm is seeing right now in terms of useful applications of generative AI.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We talk all the time about private credit. And we increasingly talk about it from the perspective of the AI buildout, and how all of these datacenters are being financed. But why did the space get so big in the first place, and what does its history indicate for the future of the asset class? On this episode, we speak with Michael Zawadzki, the Global CIO for Blackstone Credit and Insurance. Michael’s been with the firm since 2006, and built its private credit from the ground up. He talks about what it took to succeed in the space, the advantages that accrue to large players, and why private credit has played such an important role in financing AI infrastructure. Read more:Private Credit Firms Push New Funds in Bid to Tap Retiree MoneyBlackRock’s HPS Makes Its First Asia Investment After Merger Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this week, we saw something unusual happen in markets. The S&P 500 fell 2%, US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar simultaneously declined. This trifecta of market moves has rekindled talk of the "Sell America" trade as investors worry about the Trump administrations threats to take over Greenland. At the same time, Japanese bonds sold off after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election. So, how concerned should investors be about these latest developments? Is the "Sell America" trade really back? Or are we seeing a global rise in long bond yields? In this episode, we talk with Pimco CEO Emmanuel Roman about how he’s reading the moves. We also discuss Pimco's investment in data center debt, how the company is using AI internally, and why he doesn't 'get' gold. Read more:Why Investors Are Worried About Japan’s Bond MarketHow Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Is Fueling Record Prices Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the AI industry, there's always a hot new thing. First it was ChatGPT. Then it was the image generators. There was the DeepSeek moment. In the latter half of last year, everyone was excited about how good Google's Gemini was. In January 2026, the new hot thing everyone is talking about is Claude Code. But of course, the AI models have been able to generate lines of code for a long time now. So what is it about Claude Code that has people so excited? Why is it that people are asking: "Is this AGI?" On this episode, we speak with Noah Brier, the co-founder of Alpehic, a consultancy firm that helps large organizations implement AI technology. Noah has been using the Large Language Models for longer than just about anyone, since even before ChatGPT existed. He explains to us the evolution of AI-assisted coding, what Claude Code actually is, and why it is that traditional software firms have been getting destroyed in the stock market lately. Read more:Meta Begins Job Cuts as It Shifts From Metaverse to AI DevicesAI Coding Startup Replit Nears Funding at $9 Billion Valuation Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the extraordinary elements of the civil unrest taking place in Iran is that it's almost impossible to know what's going on. There's a virtually complete news blackout, in part because of the government shutting down the internet. What this means in practice right now is that someone on the outside can't even know for sure whether the Iranian stock market has been trading lately, or whether it's been halted. And then of course there are bigger questions about the scale of the civil unrest and the government's response to it. On this episode of Lots More, we check in with recurring guest Maciej Wojtal, the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, one of the few international firms to have direct exposure to Iranian stocks. We talk about what he's been able to ascertain about the protests, why they're taking place, Iran's ongoing financial crisis, and why this round of civil unrest is different from before.READ MORE: How Iran Sanctions and a Currency Crash Triggered Mass ProtestsSubscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One thing we can all agree on is that demand for energy, and in particular electricity, is growing by leaps and bounds. But past that, there is going to be a debate about who is best positioned, and who will really make money from this trend. Will it be companies digging up raw commodities? Will it be equipment companies? Will it be pipelines? Will it be utilities? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Tyler Rosenlicht, a Senior Vice President Cohen & Steers. He is a portfolio manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and the firm's head of Natural Resource Equities. We talk about the general ideas behind infrastructure investing, how it works, how it's changed, and how he thinks about the ongoing boom in energy demand. Read more:JPMorgan, Brookfield See Deals Revival for Clean Energy AssetsMideast Energy Fund Plans PE Push to Drive Wave of Deals Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Even before Trump's victory in 2024, it was becoming clear that the Fed would come under political pressure like never before. The first year of the new administration bore that out. Not only had Fed Chairman Jerome Powell come under tremendous pressure over interest rate policy and the cost of office renovations, Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Cook case will soon be argued in front of the Supreme Court, but now we have another earthquake. On Sunday night, the news broke that Powell had been served with a subpoena from the DOJ, raising the potential for criminal charges. Powell himself, who has assiduously tried to avoid the controversy, blasted the move as a form of revenge for the administration's displeasure with his interest rate policy. So where does this leave us now? On this episode, we speak with Lev Menand, a professor at Columbia Law School at the author of the Fed Unbound. He explains where things sit not with Fed independence, and why the DOJ's role here takes the fight to a whole new level. Read more:Dollar Drops Most in Three Weeks as Fed Gets Subpoenas‘Sell America’ Trade Is Revived by Trump’s Latest Fed Attack Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a long time, you could make plenty of money and sleep easy at night with a simple 60/40 portfolio. You put 60% of your money in stocks and 40% in Treasuries. The stocks generally went up. The Treasuries cushioned you during times of volatility and provided income. Then we got the worst inflation in 40 years, and the Treasury part of those portfolios got obliterated. So does it still work? And if not, how should an investor think about their own personal allocations to various asset classes. On this episode, we speak with Cullen Roche, the founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and the author of the new book, Your Perfect Portfolio: The ultimate guide to using the world's most powerful investing strategies. His book goes through a number of different ideas in portfolio construction, talking about their pluses and minuses, as well as their history. In this conversation, he explains his general philosophy and how one should think about evaluating a person's circumstances to optimally design an investment portfolio.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In some sense, the arrest of Maduro is nothing unusual. For over 200 years, the US viewed the entirety of the Western hemisphere as its legitimate domain for intervention. And of course, there's a long history of the US getting involved with Latin America specifically. But what is the Monroe Doctrine? And how does Trump's foreign policy fit into it. On this episode, we speak with Greg Grandin, a professor of history at Yale and author of America, América. Greg has extensively researched American activity in Latin America across his career. He explains the historical patterns of when America asserts its dominance in the region, and how that fits into other American policy priorities both abroad and at home. Read more:Post-Maduro 124% Rally Stuns Venezuela’s Battered Stock ExchangeTrump’s Team Orders Big Oil Into Venezuela: ‘Do It for Our Country’ Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are a bunch of questions right now about the future of Venezuela, and one of the big ones is what's going to happen to its circa $170 billion pile of debt. Some investors have been snapping up defaulted Venezuelan bonds, betting that a future restructuring could hand them a hefty payout. Others argue that the Venezuelan people shouldn't be saddled with debt issued by an authoritarian regime. In this episode, we speak with the legendary lawyer Lee Buchheit. Lee has worked on more than two dozen sovereign debt restructurings over the course of a 40-year career, including those of Iraq and Greece. He explains how a Venezuelan debt workout might unfold and the unique challenges that arise when trying to restructure the obligations of a sovereign nation. Read more:Santander, BBVA and Deutsche Lead $3 Billion Repo for ArgentinaDonation From Century-Old Fund Cuts UK Debt by £607 Million Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Venezuela is sitting on, by some measures, the biggest oil reserves in the world. And yet, in the immediate wake of Maduro's capture by US forces, the actual price of oil has moved very little. So what gives? And what are the stakes for the industry? On this episode, we speak with Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. Greg has the perfect background for this conversation, because in addition to closely monitoring both the oil industry and the global geopolitical environment, he's a trained historian. So we talk about the long history of the Venezuelan oil industry, starting in its boom years, and then its ultimate decline amid nationalization, corruption, sanctions, and blockades. He explains to us the potential huge costs of restarting production, the actual logic behind the arrest, as well as potential fallout across Latin America, and with Venezuela's friends, such as Iran, China, and Cuba. Read more:Trump Says Venezuela to Send US Up to 50 Million Barrels of OilSlumping Mideast Oil Market Adds to Signs of Global Weakness Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Every year, regional Federal Reserve banks host some of the most substantive — and under-the-radar — events in the central banking world: research conferences. Behind the formal papers and dense macro models, this is where much of the Fed’s intellectual groundwork for monetary policy first starts to take shape. On this episode, we take you inside the Boston Fed's 69th annual Economic Conference to hear what the economists are actually debating, how they choose the questions that matter most, and what happens when the evidence — or egos — clash. Along the way, we talk to Fed researchers, outside academics, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins about how this kind of work influences policy in the real world. Watch all the presentations at the Boston Fed's website Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the Odd Lots team was down in Washington DC earlier this year, we had a phenomenal meal at a restaurant called Butterworth's. As it turns out, the restaurant is one of the hottest hangouts for the MAGA crowd, with Steve Bannon and others frequently seen in its dining room. Of course, restaurants are difficult businesses in normal conditions, but in DC, you have the added factor that political cycles are changing all the time, and different bars and restaurants become associated with specific parties who go in and out of power. On this episode, we speak with Bart Hutchins, the chef-owner at the restaurant. We talk about everything from sourcing ingredients from small Amish farms, to acquiring beef tallow, and dining room logistics. We also talk about food costs, labor availability, and how the intense worker shortages and price inflation of the post-2020 period still affects how the restaurant is run today. Read more:A Former Soho House Executive Is Changing London’s Restaurant SceneDoorDash Tests AI Social App to Help Users Find Restaurants Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's that time of the year. On this episode, Tracy and Joe answer questions from listeners that were submitted via voice note. We talk about everything from Chinese history to whales to whether or not we ever hold an episode without publishing it. Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2025 was an extraordinary year, with the real economy defying recession worries and equity markets putting up monster returns. So can this be repeated again in 2026? On this episode, we speak with two of the top minds at Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius is the bank's chief economist and head of research and Ben Snider is its chief US equity strategist. We review what really happened in 2025, talking about the impact of both AI and the tariffs, as well as how these factors will impact the real economy and stocks next year. Read more:Larry Ellison, Not Elon Musk, Was The Tech Titan Who Defined 2025Why 2026 Is Poised to Be Another Rocky Year for Global Trade Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hello Odd Lots listeners! As we take a break for the holidays we'd like to take a moment and bring you an episode by one of our sister shows here at Bloomberg Podcasts, Merryn Talks Money.  In this special two-part series, John Stepek and Merryn Somerset Webb tell the extraordinary story of John Law: a fugitive Scots gambler who became the most powerful financier in France and helped invent the modern monetary system. From murder and exile to paper money, banking revolutions and spectacular collapse, Law’s life reveals why today’s financial system works the way it does—and why it sometimes blows up. It’s history, scandal and monetary theory rolled into one irresistible tale. We used a range of sources for this podcast but two key books to read if you'd like to find out more are:John Law: A Scottish Adventurer of the Eighteenth Century (2018), by James BuchanJohn Law: Economic Theorist and Policy-Maker (1997), by Antoin MurphyLike this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Merryn Talks Money podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you're a high-skilled tech worker, then potentially huge fortunes await you working for a startup or one of our booming AI giants. But the government needs these types of workers too. And the government is not set up to pay commensurate salaries with the private sector -- particularly for these types of roles. This challenge has long been understood, and there have been numerous efforts over the years to infuse the government with high-tech talent. Scott Kupor is the director of the US Office of Personnel Management, which manages and coordinates recruiting of new government employees across the federal workforce. Scott was also previously one of the top partners at the famed VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. So he has a mind for bringing the recruiting practices of the tech world into DC. But of course, that's easier said than done. On this episode, we talk about how federal hiring works and doesn't work, and also his new endeavor called the US Tech Force, which aims to bring in top talent for a two-year stint of solving problems across the bureaus. We also talk about the DOGE initiative, and how he thinks about recruiting top talent at a time when the administration has been aggressive about shrinking the size of the overall federal workforce.Read More: Federal Workforce’s Toll After a Year of DOGE and Trump: 317,000USDA Lost a Third of DC Staff Even Before Relocation Effort Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.