Odd Lots

The 1970s were a pretty eventful time in markets. There was high inflation, the end of the gold standard, and a stock market crash. There was also a bunch of ideas coming out of the University of Chicago that would go on to be famous and highly influential for investors. Perhaps the most prominent is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, posited by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, which says that markets are right and it's useless for investors to try to outguess them. Fama later teamed up with David Booth, the founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, and has been a longtime collaborator with the firm, which now has $777 billion under management. Today, they're releasing a documentary directed by Errol Morris and called "Tune Out the Noise," which chronicles this important time. We speak to both of these investment legends about the development of their theories, how they put them into practice, subsequent criticism, and what comes next. Read more:Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market ReturnsUpstarts Challenge a Foundation of Modern InvestingCliff Asness Says Markets Are Less Efficient — And Social Media May Be to Blame Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt levels swell even further, it doesn't look like this issue is going away any time soon. In this episode, we speak with Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke. We talk about how he thinks about debt cycles, the catalyst for when high levels of debt become an immediate problem, what a debt crisis actually looks like, and what the US needs to do to avoid a "heart attack" debt crisis within the next three years. We also speak about what investors should do in these scenarios, including Ray's thoughts on things like Bitcoin and gold. And, of course, we also speak about his role in helping create the Chicken McNugget.Read more:The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s AttentionOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A week from today we will get the February jobs report and there are growing concerns that the US labor market is slowing. Already, the number of sectors adding jobs in this economy is on the decline. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to struggle. Add in the Department of Government Efficiency and worsening fiscal conditions in the state and local sector, and the government may prove to be a drag on employment. To talk about this and other macro developments, including possible tariffs, we brought back Jon Turek, founder and CEO of JST Advisors, to break it all down on this episode. Read more: US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Highest of 2025 Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first month of the Trump administration has been noisy and novel by basically any measure. But perhaps the biggest shockwaves have been in the realm of geopolitics. Europeans were caught off guard by a recent speech given by Vice President JD Vance in Munich, calling into doubt the future of the Trans-Atlantic partnership. Meanwhile, when it comes to tariffs, the Trump administration has actually been tougher on Mexico and Canada than it has been on China. Then add into all of this the anxiety over AI domination, as a result of the hype around DeepSeek. So how should we understand these novel risks? And how should investors incorporate them into their thinking? On this episode we speak with Jared Cohen and George Lee, the co-heads of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. They discuss the future of Europe, what they're expecting from the Trump administration, the rise of the Gulf powers, AI, undersea cables, and the opportunities in identifying what they call "geopolitical swing states" like Japan and India.Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord” has suddenly become a hot topic on Wall Street, with some investors and analysts starting to take the idea more seriously, holding meetings with clients and publishing research notes about the rumored plan. A riff on the 1985 Plaza Accord — named for the hotel where it was devised — the idea is that the Trump administration could achieve its economic aims through a reordering of the financial system that would include a conscious effort to devalue the dollar. The basic components of the plan were laid out by Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and drew on the work of Zoltan Pozsar. So how exactly could this all work? And what problems are the Trump administration trying to solve exactly? On this episode, we speak with Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research, who has been briefing his clients about the possibilities. Read more:Three Names You Need to Know to Understand the Future of the International Monetary Order‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s AttentionOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People love listening to stories about making it big, and there are no shortage of success stories in the world of global business. There's TSMC, which has grown to become the most important producer of semiconductors. There's Hermès, which has been a power player in luxury consumer goods for over a hundred years now. Or how about Starbucks, Berkshire Hathaway, Renaissance Technologies, or Ikea? The list goes on and on. But what actually makes a company great? And why do some businesses succeed where others fail? The Acquired podcast has become a must-listen for their study of some of the most interesting companies in the world. In this episode, we speak with Acquired co-hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal, about what makes a business truly great.Read More: The Five Habits of Highly Successful CompaniesCompanies to Watch in 2025Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hedge funds are notorious for making big and sometimes risky trades. Banks, meanwhile, are supposed to be a lot more boring by comparison — for obvious reasons. But in recent years, we've seen banks like Silicon Valley Bank make some pretty bad bets themselves. Elham Saeidinezhad, an assistant economics professor at Barnard College, Columbia University, argues that banks have been turning into giant "synthetic hedge funds" by blending traditional lending activities with advanced financial strategies. The big question, of course, is whether they should be doing this at all, given that banks typically operate with a lot more regulatory constraint and might not be as nimble when it comes to entering or exiting positions. Read more:SVB’s 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During PandemicSVB Failure Sparks Blame Game Over Trump-Era Regulatory RuleThe Thorny Question of Why We Treat Banks Differently At All? Only Bloomberg subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US is a dominant force in a number of important industries, but it's been lagging behind in one crucial area: shipbuilding. Today, there are about 80 US-flagged ships involved in global trade, compared to more than 5,500 China-flagged vessels. The worry is that the US has been falling behind in this important component of international commerce, and that the country's entire economy could be at risk of being choked off. The SHIPS for America Act is a rare bipartisan proposal that aims to address these concerns by getting America to build commercial vessels again. But how exactly do you go about reviving an industry that's been all but moribund for decades? We speak to Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, and Senator Todd Young, a Republican from Indiana, co-sponsors of the bill, about their plan.Read More:US Lawmakers Seek to Bolster Shipbuilding at HomeThe Shipping Industry Is Getting a Slew of New Vessels—Right as Demand CoolsOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a long time, the world of derivatives trading was a niche thing, largely occupied by professional investors who used them for hedging purposes. During the pandemic and the Robinhood boom, the retail masses started discovering them, and activity exploded. Since then, the use of options, swaps and other levered positions has grown among both individual traders and the big professionals on Wall Street. There are countless influencers on social media promising "guaranteed" returns from various options selling strategies. New ETFs have been launched that embed derivatives inside them. And institutions which might historically have employed simple, sleepy investments, are now making them part of their core mix. So how did this happen, and what effect is it having on the market? On this episode, we speak with Benn Eifert, partner at QVR Advisors, about the evolution of this world, why you should not get your trading advice from Instagram, and how this trend has reshaped the entire market. Read more: World’s Largest Options Market Weathers Indian Regulatory Curbs Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets hereSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The price of gold is basically at record highs. But what is it about gold that people love so much? Why have people always craved a metal that has no real industrial uses? And what does owning or wearing gold represent? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Maksud Agadjani, the founder of TraxNYC, a jewelry store based in NYC's Diamond District. You may recognize Maksud from the movie Uncut Gems, where he played a character similar to himself, working in the fast-moving world of precious metals, rare stones, and flashy jewelry. We talked to him about the persistent demand for gold and why people are so into it right now. Read more: Gold’s Price Surge Drives Narcos Into Illegal Mining in the AmazonOdd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all know that the Federal Reserve tries to stabilize the economy by raising or cutting interest rates to balance inflation and unemployment. But the central bank’s mandate actually goes beyond monetary policy. The Fed is also responsible for reviewing and distributing billions of dollars in cash to banks all over the US. In this episode, we go deep inside the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to see how physical money actually gets moved around. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is our guide for the tour, and you’ll hear how the central bank gets its cash, how it checks it for authenticity and condition, and how it gets currency to where it needs to be.Read more: Fed’s Goolsbee Sees Uncertainty Driving Shallower Rate-Cut Path Odd Lots is going to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration has come into office with big ambitions to lower the size of the US deficit. So far, a number of small items have been identified as possible waste. But to meaningfully bend the curve on spending, there's widespread agreement that we'd have to look at things like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and defense. This is hard stuff to cut and it's something that governments around the world have long struggled with. How do you pull back on a prior commitment that your constituency has come to expect? In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Firtz Bartel, an assistant professor of international affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M. He is also the author of the recent book The Triumph of Broken Promises, which examines the simultaneous economic crisis in the US, UK, and Soviet Union during the 1970s, and how each country was forced economically to essentially "break promises." We talk about what it takes politically to maintain domestic credibility for any government while undergoing such wrenching choices, and why some systems are better suited for it than others. Read More:Trump Tax Cuts’ Cost Estimated at $5 Trillion to $11 TrillionJudge Temporarily Halts Trump, Musk Federal Worker ‘Buyout’ Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a pretty widespread recognition that the EU is facing a bunch of economic challenges right now. Growth has been slowing and, as in many places, there's been post-pandemic inflation. But there are other issues too, including a sense that Europe is falling behind when it comes to key technologies like AI and semiconductors. There's also an ongoing energy crisis and the recent threat of tariffs from the US. So how is the European Central Bank evaluating and responding to these cyclical and structural challenges? How do one-off risks affect the direction of monetary policy? We speak with Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, about how the central bank is thinking about all these things. Read More:Trump’s Naughty List Could Put EU Cars, Machinery in Tariff CrosshairsECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we saw shares of software maker Palantir soar after reporting earnings and describing demand for AI as being "untamed." But what does Palantir do, and what do they actually sell to the federal government? More importantly, how does the government actually spend money on things related to security and national defense? Last year, Palantir's CTO Shyam Sankar published a document called "The Defense Reformation," containing 18 theses about arms procurement and how it should be changed. We talk to him about the history of US defense spending, and his vision for creating a more competitive, advanced environment for the US defense sector. Read More:Palantir Jumps Most in Year As ‘Untamed’ Demand Bolsters OutlookTrump’s Gaza Takeover Gets Israeli Approval, Global Scorn Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have gained access to a unit within the Treasury Department called the Bureau of Fiscal Service. But what does this unit actually do? How critical of a role does it play in the operations of government, and potentially, financial markets? On this episode, we speak with Nathan Tankus, the author of the Notes On The Crises newsletter. He explains both the technical aspect of this office, as well as the legal questions surrounding impoundment and the ability of the executive branch to cut off payments that have been previously authorized by Congress. We also talk about the operational risks and the potential disaster scenario should this system — which has been built in COBOL over decades — go down. Read More: US Treasury Brings In Two Members From Musk’s DOGE Team Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he was following through with his plan for aggressive tariffs. Imports from Canada and Mexico will now be hit with a 25% tariff, while China will get a 10% tariff. Although aggressive action was promised during the campaign, the news still rattled global financial markets, sending futures tumbling and the dollar spiking. Then, on Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that after a discussion with Trump, the tariffs aimed at her country would be delayed by a month. Meanwhile, more talks with Canada and China are expected. So what exactly are the economics of such tariffs? Are they inflationary? Who pays for them? And what are the implications of these ongoing threats? On this episode, we speak with Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, who answers all of our questions on the still developing news and how things might play out.Read More: How Trump’s Tariffs Aim a Wrecking Ball at the Economy of the Americas Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marko Kolanovic was one of the biggest names in markets, earning the nickname 'Gandalf' for some eerily prescient calls over the years. But last July he left his role as JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, after missing out on a pretty epic rally. Since then, stocks have climbed higher with valuations increasingly stretched. So what does Marko think of the market now? In this episode we talk about his outlook the market, the impact of AI including the new DeepSeek model out of China, plus his own research and analysis techniques.Read more: Kolanovic on the Canary in the Coal Mine for Higher Energy PricesOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows by now that MicroStrategy looks a lot like a giant Bitcoin ETF. Its founder, Michael Saylor, is a huge supporter of the cryptocurrency and his company has been snapping up billions of dollars worth of the coins. The strategy has so far proved successful. In fact, MicroStrategy is trading at a market cap that's worth more than the value of its entire Bitcoin portfolio. How does this happen? And how long can it keep going? In this episode, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion's Matt Levine. We talk to him about how MicroStrategy has created a sort of "perpetual motion machine" of investment and how the strategy is starting to expand to other companies, too. Money Stuff: Crypto Perpetual Motion Machines Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the primary drivers of elevated inflation — and the high cost of living in general — is the price of shelter. Whether you're buying or renting, housing is very expensive. Thankfully, over the last year, some of the increases we've seen in rent prices have slowed significantly, and we're not too far away from the pre-Covid pace. The bad news is that this might not last. A confluence of factors is coming together that may cause yet another shock to housing affordability. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Lee Everett, the head of research and strategy at the multi-family operator Cortland. He talks about how the increase in interest rates caused new development of apartment buildings to plunge, meaning supply will be increasingly scarce again in 2026. Then add in deportations of construction labor, soaring insurance costs, plus industry consolidation, and you have the recipe for another big shock to housing affordability coming quickly down the pike. Read More:LA’s Backyard-Home Boom Offers Wildfire-Hit Residents New OptionUS Housing Starts Top All Forecasts on Multifamily Construction Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Monday, the stock market tanked, seemingly in reaction to the emergence of DeepSeek, an open source AI model developed in China. Nvidia, the semiconductor giant that has been the largest winner of the AI boom, erased $589 billion in market cap, for the biggest one-day wipeout in US stock-market history. Other chipmakers and big tech giants also swooned. So how did DeepSeek do it? Is it a big threat to the American AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic? What does this say about export restrictions on US chips? On this special emergency session of the podcast, we spoke with Zvi Mowshowitz, an AI expert who authors the excellent Substack, Don’t Worry About the Vase. He answered all our questions and more to help understand what it means. Read more: AI-Fueled Stock Rally Dealt $1 Trillion Blow by Chinese UpstartWorld’s Richest People Lose $108 Billion After DeepSeek Selloff Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.