The government shutdown is now into its 12th day and there aren't any signs of a compromise yet. At least we can count on the private sector to remain open, and a slew of corporate earnings releases to fill the gap this week. More than 30 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including some of the US banking heavyweights. Here in New Zealand, we should get a fresh housing market report from the Real Estate Institute, while RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway is giving a speech on Wednesday in Sydney.
It’s been a fantastic run for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 index is up 18 per cent in the past 12 months, and 83 per cent over three years. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has commented on this, noting that “equity prices are fairly highly valued” during a recent speech. Are US stocks in a bubble, and how worried should investors be about where valuations have got to?
A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the latest Official Cash Rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) the clear highlight on Wednesday. Another cut is assured, but will it be another 0.25% or will the RBNZ opt for a larger 0.50% move?
The first three quarters of the calendar year are behind us, and investors have again been well rewarded for ignoring the noise and staying the course. If the global economy remains resilient and corporate earnings continue to grow solidly, share prices are likely to remain buoyant. We have seasonality on our side too, with this home stretch typically a positive period for global markets.
The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This really highlights the need to ensure your investments are globally diversified.
What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50-basis point OCR cut in October.
Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation acrossfinancial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hitting fresh record highs. Here's what you need to know if you're thinking about adding the shiny stuff to your portfolio.
The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the GDP report for the June quarter.
There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us more about what’s in the rear view mirror than what’s ahead.
France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.
New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks reduce mortgage rates we don’t benefit from those lower costs right away. A steady stream of borrowers moving onto lower rates will hopefully boost activity and spending, putting businesses in a stronger position and giving them the confidence to grow, hire and invest.
It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the August jobs report, ISM indices and the Fed's Beige Book all due for release. We'll also be watching for any political fallout after President Trump’s tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last week!
Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That’s not hyperbole, it’s the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple together make up more than one-fifth of the S&P 500. To put that in perspective, it's more than the combined weight of the four traditional defensive sectors of the market - healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. What does this mean for investors, and should it concern us?
The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while we'll hear from Coles, Woolworths, South32 and Wesfarmers across the Tasman. Internationally, NVIDIA will be in focus when its latest earnings are announced on Wednesday in the US.
World shares have hit fresh record highs in recent days, defying forecasts for a pullback and looking much stronger than many predicted a few months ago. The MSCI All Country World Index is up 13.2 per cent in 2025, and is more than 40 per cent higher over the past two years. Let's run through some of the reasons why investors are in such good spirits, as we ponder whether this optimism is justified.
There's plenty to monitor this week with the local highlight expected to be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Wednesday afternoon. Another cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is widely expected, and markets will be focused on the latest forecasts and projections for clues as to how low the OCR goes from there.
The local reporting season is heating up, and we’re all hopeful it’ll suggest the long-awaited economic recovery is in sight. The coming few weeks will reveal whether our listed corporate sector is ready to embrace recovery, or if we’ll be left cautiously waiting for another six months or more. For under-pressure management teams, frustrated investors and nervous politicians alike, the stakes are rising after an extended period of underperformance.
Tariff headlines will remain a focal point this week, with the pause between the US and China due to to expire on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump also plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska, as he looks to broker a ceasefire agreement and bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
Despite some short-term pricing pressures, inflation is largely under control and expected to remain within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. However, even if we can declare inflation beaten the effects of the cost-of-living crisis still linger. The pace of the increases may have slowed right now, but we’re stuck with the big rises of the last few years.
Trade and tariffs will in focus again this week, with the new US tariffs set to take effect on Thursday. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the June quarter labour force report, which is out on Wednesday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to increase to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. This is likely to seal the deal on another cut to the Official Cash Rate later this month.