On Shifting Ground

One theme was consistent throughout this election year: the assertion that democracy was under threat. Throughout the year, Jonathan Rauch weighed in on whether democracy is waning, and how the Republican party could build a future without Trumpism. Jonathan Rauch joins Ray Suarez to discuss Trump's reelection, and how he feels today about the health of our republic.  This is our final episode of On Shifting Ground. Thank you for all your support over the years. We'll miss you. Guest: Jonathan Rauch, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Center for Effective Public Management Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

In less than three weeks, Donald Trump will be back in the White House, and we’re waiting to see what he will tackle on Day One. On the campaign trail, Trump promised he’d end the fighting in Ukraine on January 20th. The war is nearing its third anniversary, and there are few signs an end is in sight. Russian president Vladimir Putin has recently signaled he’s ready to compromise, but can president-elect Trump deliver a deal after almost three years of war? This week, Ray Suarez speaks with former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul on the precarious future of Ukraine. Guest: Michael McFaul, Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

100,000, that’s the estimated number of Protestant churches that will close in the U.S… not by 2050, but five years from now. What some scholars are calling “The Great De-churching” is already well under way, and the exodus is accelerating. This week, Ray Suarez speaks with Ryan Burge, professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, about why non-religious people and atheists are on the rise, and whether religion can still play a role in American society.  Guest:    Ryan Burge, professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

When bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites change over time and no longer respond to medicines, it makes infections harder to treat. This increases the risk of disease spread, severe illness, and death.  Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) leads to deaths, high health treatment costs, and economic and livelihood losses. Jennifer Cohn, Director, Global Access at Global Antibiotic R&D Partnership (GARDP), joins Ray Suarez to talk about the threat of AMR, and how to prevent it. Guest: Dr. Jennifer Cohn, Director, Global Access at Global Antibiotic R&D Partnership (GARDP) Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Third party candidate, Robert Kennedy, Jr., played an out-sized role in the 2024 presidential election. Trump said Kennedy would have “a big role in health care” if he were re-elected. And on November 14th, Trump announced RFK, Jr. would be nominated to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. More than 75 Nobel laureates have urged the US Senate to deny Kennedy, because they feel he would “put the public’s health in jeopardy.” If confirmed, how could Kennedy disrupt policy at HHS?   This week, Ray speaks with Stanford’s Keith Humphreys about what RFK’s nomination means.  Guest: Keith Humphreys, Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University Host:   Ray Suarez  If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

One issue where President-elect Trump hammered home the differences between his plans and those of Kamala Harris was immigration. For a decade, the public has been increasingly worried about the number of people turning up at the southern border, the number of people seeking asylum in the US, and perhaps more quietly, about the changing face of America. Ray Suarez spoke with Ted Hesson, immigration reporter for Reuters, about how the Trump administration will handle immigration differently than Joe Biden. Then, he shares what he learned while reporting and writing We Are Home: Becoming American in the 21st Century, with veteran journalist Shereen Marisol Meraji. Guests:    Ted Hesson, immigration reporter for Reuters Shereen Marisol Meraji, assistant professor at UC Berkeley’s School of Journalism Host:   Ray Suarez, host, On Shifting Ground If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Donald Trump has successfully defied the political odds for almost a decade – largely because of his unpredictability on the campaign trail. But when it comes to his foreign policy, Trump is anything but unpredictable. If we take him at his word, some analysts believe Trump will inflame economic tensions with China, pull the US out of NATO, and hand Ukraine over to Vladimir Putin. Ian Bremmer on what to expect from Trump 2.0. Then, Ray Suarez sits down with Luxembourg Peace Prize laureates, Ali Abu Awwad, founding leader of the Taghyeer (Change) Palestinian National Nonviolence movement, and Dr. Gershon Baskin, the Middle East director of the International Communities Organization, to learn why they maintain hope for a peaceful, two-state solution. Guests:   Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group Ali Abu Awwad, Palestinian peace activist and founder of the Taghyeer (Change) Palestinian National Nonviolence Movement Gershon Baskin, Israeli peace activist and the Middle East Director of the International Communities Organisation Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Diversity has often been seen as the United States’ defining strength – but today, some Americans see it as a threat. And this isn’t new. Throughout history, differences of religion, ethnicity, and origin have driven states around the world to war, violence, and extreme division. However, German-American political scientist Yascha Mounk says this isn’t the only path.  On this week’s episode, we revisit our 2022 conversation with Mounk about his book, “The Great Experiment: Why Diverse Democracies Fall Apart And How They Can Endure." Two years after our original recording, we wonder whether it's still possible for diverse diverse democracies to succeed in an increasingly polarized political landscape. Guest: Yascha Mounk, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, contributing editor at The Atlantic and author of The Great Experiment: Why Diverse Democracies Fall Apart and How They Can Endure Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

In 2020, Latinos became the second largest ethnic voting group in the United States, and the fastest-growing segment of the swing states in the 2024 Presidential Election. The results of Election Day are clear: Donald Trump gained with working class Americans, and particularly Latino men, delivering him a decisive victory. Ray Suarez speaks with Mike Madrid, author of The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy, on why Democrats have been failing to connect with Latino voters for over a decade. Then, a post-election analysis from Commonwealth Club World Affairs’ “Week to Week” political roundtable. Guests:   Mike Madrid, Co-Founder, The Lincoln Project; Author, The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority Is Transforming Democracy Tim Anaya, Vice President of Marketing and Communications, Pacific Research Institute Melissa Caen, Attorney; Political Journalist; Host, "Get Out the Bet" Joe Garofoli, Senior Political Writer, San Francisco Chronicle; Host, "It's All Political on Fifth and Mission" Hosts:   Ray Suarez John Zipperer, Producer and Host, “Week to Week” Political Roundtable If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

According to Steve Schmidt, if you want to understand how the Democrats failed against Donald Trump in 2024, then you have to go back to Joe Biden not stepping aside earlier. In a candid, raw conversation, Ray Suarez speaks with Steve Schmidt, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, and host of The Warning, about how Donald Trump built a new multicultural, working class coalition, and why identity politics and big egos cost the Democrats. Guest: Steve Schmidt, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, and host of The Warning  Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Election Day is over, and the results are clear: former president Donald Trump resoundingly defeated vice president Kamala Harris. We don’t have all the data, but a majority of US counties swung towards the Republicans. How did Trump gain new working class voters? And where does the Democratic Party go from here? Dante Chinni, director of MSU J-School’s American Communities Project, Rahul Bali, politics reporter at WABE, and Katie Meyer, government editor and reporter at Spotlight PA, breakdown the results. Guests: Dante Chinni, data and political journalist and director of the MSU J-School’s American Communities Project Rahul Bali, politics reporter at WABE Katie Meyer, government editor and reporter at Spotlight PA Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

We’ve finally reached November 5th, Election Day in the US, and a majority of Americans remain deeply pessimistic about the state of the nation. Throughout the year, we’ve talked to voters about the issues they care about in 2024, and we share their stories in this election special. We’ll revisit our conversations with Iowa voter Phil Hemingway, Latorya Beasley, therapist and in vitro fertilization (IVF) patient in Alabama, and Samaya Garza, J.D. Candidate at University of Detroit Mercy School of Law. Then, Ray Suarez speaks with Justin Grimmer, political science professor and senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, to break down whether we can trust the polls in the final days of the race. Guests:   Dante Chinni, data and political journalist and director of the MSU J-School’s American Communities Project Phil Hemingway, owner, manager and automotive technician at Phil’s Repair, LLC Latorya Beasley, therapist and in vitro fertilization (IVF) patient in Alabama Samaya Garza, J.D. Candidate at University of Detroit Mercy School of Law Justin Grimmer, political science professor and senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution Hosts:    Ray Suarez Mateo Schimpf Elize Manoukian, producer If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Donald Trump’s anti-establishment message has galvanized tech leaders across the US, including in former Democratic Party stronghold, Silicon Valley. This American Life’s Zoe Chace speaks with our producer, Mateo Schimpf, about what happened when Michigan Republicans took his advice and actually tried to buck the system. And tech billionaires have had their fingerprints all over the 2024 Presidential Election, but can we trust them? Journalist Kara Swisher joins Ray Suarez to discuss her newest book, “Burn Book,” and the psyche of Silicon Valley’s biggest players. Guests:   Zoe Chace, Producer, This American Life Kara Swisher, author of “Burn Book,” and host of the podcast “On with Kara Swisher” Hosts:   Mateo Schimpf  Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

During the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump's campaign has been fueled by some surprising supporters… leaders in big tech. According to recent reporting from The New York Times, tech billionaires like Elon Musk have built a “shadow campaign” to put Trump back in office. WIRED’s Steven Levy joins Ray Suarez to talk about why big dollar donations are causing a big divide in the once deeply blue Silicon Valley. Guest: Steven Levy, Journalist and Editor, WIRED Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

We're entering the final days of the 2024 presidential election, but a lot can change in a few weeks. Historically, several presidential contests have been upended in October. Coined the "October Surprise," for decades candidates have been tested at the finish line... and many have faltered. So what could trip up Harris or Trump?  Ray Suarez hosts a panel featuring political strategist and pollster Rachel Bitecofer, Jonathan M. Metzl, author of Dying of Whiteness: How the Politics of Racial Resentment is Killing America's Heartland, and Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project. Guests: Rachel Bitecofer, author, political strategist and pollster Jonathan M. Metzl, author and director of the Department of Medicine, Health, and Society, at Vanderbilt University Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project Host:   Ray Suarez If you value this programming, you can help support future ones just like it. Visit Commonwealth Club World Affairs to make a donation. Any amount helps, thank you!

Refugees in California are generally protected from federal deportation under sanctuary and safe haven laws, unless they've been incarcerated. And in 2022, after serving 25 years for murder, San Quentin State Prison parolee Phoeun You was turned over to ICE, and deported to Cambodia. In this episode, the story of Phoeun You: a man returned to a country he never knew. This episode was produced in partnership with KQED's The California Report Magazine podcast. Producer:   Mateo Schimpf If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Immigration is once again a political football in the lead up to the 2024 Presidential Election, and while Congress stalled to address comprehensive border control measures, hundreds of thousands of migrants became pawns in a political game. The Washington Post's Eduardo Porter talks with Ray about how Mexico's former president used migrant flows to gain leverage in Washington D.C., and which US presidential candidate Mexico's new leadership prefers in the upcoming election.  Guest:   Eduardo Porter, columnist, The Washington Post Host:   Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

We're entering the final days of the 2024 presidential election, but a lot can change in a few weeks. Historically, several presidential contests have been upended in October. Coined the "October Surprise," for decades candidates have been tested at the finish line... and many have faltered. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump was trailing in the polls in October – as he is now with Kamala Harris – so could a last-second surprise ensure victory for Trump? Join us at Commonwealth Club - World Affairs on Tuesday, October 15th at Noon, for a special conversation with political strategist and pollster Rachel Bitecofer, Jonathan M. Metzl, author of Dying of Whiteness: How the Politics of Racial Resentment is Killing America's Heartland, and Tara Setmayer, co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project.

Monday, October 7, 2024 marks the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israeli territory. For a while, Israel's response to the violence supplanted the war in Ukraine in the headlines, but as the months dragged on, attention had largely turned away from Gaza. That all changed in late-September when Israeli airstrikes in neighboring Lebanon killed seven high-ranking commanders and officials from Hezbollah, including the militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Ray Suarez speaks with Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about how Nasrallah’s has already escalated violence in the region… and may drag in Iran and the United States. Then, Vox’s Zack Beauchamp on what the first anniversary of October 7th will mean to Israel, the United States, and the final months of Joe Biden’s presidency. Guests:    Zack Beauchamp, Senior Correspondent at Vox Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Host:  Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

After the two recent assassination attempts on former president Donald Trump, it’s clear the United States has a problem with political violence. But in our history, several would-be assassins have attacked sitting presidents, so is there something different about these Trump shooters… and this era of political grievance?  Bruce Hoffman, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations, on whether we can break the string of political violence across the globe. Guest: Bruce Hoffman, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, Council on Foreign Relations Host: Ray Suarez If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to Commonwealth Club World Affairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.