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On The Market
On The Market
Author: BiggerPockets
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The modern real estate investor doesn’t have time to research every headline and trend. That’s why BiggerPockets' Dave Meyer and his expert panel do it for you. Learn how to invest smarter in today’s economic environment.
374 Episodes
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The United States is on the brink of a recession, according to major multinational bank UBS. Meanwhile, America’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, says recession risk is only at 40%. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? We’re using a new recession indicator in this episode to reveal America’s real risk of sliding into another downturn.
If it feels like your dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to and your salary is barely keeping up—you’re not imagining it.
But according to official sources, America has only been in a recession for three months since the Great Financial Crisis. That can’t be right when it’s getting this hard to get by. That’s why, in this episode, Dave shares his new recession indicator, based on the average American’s finances, to measure the financial health of real Americans, not what corporate earnings reports suggest.
Looking back, the economic data doesn’t fit the official narrative. And if you feel like you’ve been in a recession for years, you might be right. But you can still protect (and grow) your wealth while the economy falters. Are your investments keeping your real wealth afloat?
In This Episode We Cover
The new “recession indicator” that forecasts whether average Americans will struggle or not
Recession predictions from top banks and whether we’re on the precipice of a crisis
Why the standard definition of a “recession” is wrong and ignores average Americans
The alarming statistic that shows just how much of your spending power has been eaten away
How to recession-proof your finances and invest so you can weather economic storms
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
BiggerPockets Real Estate 1119 - How to Invest in Real Estate During a Recession (2025 Update)
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Major bank issues warning that there’s a 93% chance of a recession in the US this year
JPMorgan Chase: The probability of a recession has fallen to 40%
Buy the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"
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The housing market is seeing a (surprisingly) positive trend. Yes, even with all those YouTube channels showing you “empty” houses, it seems that homebuyers, especially millennials, are getting back into the game. This is excellent news for agents, lenders, title companies, sellers, and flippers. So, what’s the “positive” trend we’re seeing?
We’re back with another headline episode to get you up to date on the housing market in just around half an hour. First, new data points to housing demand increasing as mortgage rates stay away from their 7%+ highs. Is there a path to 5% interest rates in the near future? Yes, but the road to it won’t be pretty. Here’s what would have to happen for us to get there.
Can you guess the top 10 cities with the largest price drops in the US? We’re sharing the complete list in this episode, with some surprising cities near the top. Finally, we’ll discuss the massive layoffs from tech, including Amazon’s recent firing of over 10,000 well-paid employees. If you live in an area where these layoffs are happening, the market could see a noticeable shift.
In This Episode We Cover
Why housing demand is actually going up while economic optimism is going down
A 5% interest rate future? What actually has to happen for us to get there
The top 10 United States cities seeing the most significant price drops
Why James is preparing for layoffs ASAP and tweaking his investing strategy as jobs get cut
Money printing…again? The dangerous door that’s opening for quantitative easing
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Grab Dave’s Book, "Start with Strategy"
Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
BiggerPockets Real Estate 1191 - Home Prices Could “Stall” for Years
Articles from Today's Show:
HousingWire: Housing demand now reflects a positive trend
ResiClub: Bank of America: Path to 5% mortgage rates if 'the Fed does MBS quantitative easing'
Yahoo Finance: When will housing prices drop? Costs have already decreased in some major metro areas.
Yahoo Finance: Layoffs hit Amazon, UPS, Target, and more — what's fueling the cuts
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The Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates go up. Then they do it again, and rates…go back up. How does this keep happening? Has the Fed lost complete control over mortgage rates?
The Fed has now cut rates twice in 2025, and we’re hovering around the same (if not slightly higher) mortgage rates as before the first cut. After last week’s rate cut announcement, investors were surprised to see that mortgages—once again—got even more expensive. But it’s not because of what the Fed did—it was because of what they said, potentially foreshadowing a slower, longer path back to 5% mortgage rates.
Dave is on to explain why mortgage rates moved in the opposite direction, why we could be stuck with higher mortgage rates for longer, and the two things that need to happen for mortgage rates to break back into the 5% range. Plus, he’ll share three realistic scenarios that could cause rates to move in different directions and what could trigger each.
In This Episode We Cover
The Fed meeting announcement explained and why mortgage rates went up
The real reason why we’re not seeing mortgage rates fall below 6%
Alarming corporate layoffs and whether this is a warning sign for the entire economy
Some good/bad news about inflation and the cities that are faring the worst
Three likely mortgage rate scenarios that could send rates in different directions, without the Fed making moves
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
BiggerPockets Real Estate 1194 - Don’t Bet on the Fed: What Investors Need to Do Now as Rates Rise Again
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Property Manager Finder
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The national housing correction is here but your results will be decided locally. Some markets are cooling gently, others are slipping fast, and a few affordable metros are still running warm. So where does that leave buy-and-hold, flips, STRs, and BRRRRs? We map the dramatic regional split, Midwest/Northeast steadier, Gulf Coast/Texas under pressure, and show how to match your strategy to on-the-ground realities like inventory, rent growth, and affordability.
You’ll hear why “flat prices + rising rents” can be a green light for cash flow, when to take a calculated swing in oversold-but-strong-fundamentals cities (think Austin/Nashville/Dallas), and where supply and insurance costs are pushing deeper discounts (hello, Florida). We also dig into metro-level forecasts into 2026 and why your underwriting should look different in Milwaukee than in Miami.
In This Episode We Cover
Local > national: why the same correction looks totally different by region and price tier
Affordability & supply: the two signals driving winners and laggards (and how to measure both)
Hottest vs. coolest markets: where buyers have leverage and where demand still pops
Rents vs. prices: pairing flat/declining prices with rising rents to improve cash flow
Risk-on vs. risk-off playbooks: conservative buy boxes vs. opportunistic dips in strong cities
Flipping in a slowdown: wider spreads, longer days-on-market, how to price and pace
Forecasts into 2026: what recent metro projections imply for your next 3 - 12 months of deals
Hold or sell? Handling “paper losses,” market selection, and underwriting for a slower cycle
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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Property Manager Finder
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Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-369
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Discover how a new era of real estate investing could benefit you! In this episode, Doug Brien, CEO of Roofstock, joins the discussion to uncover the evolving dynamics in the housing market. Learn why new construction, once considered a riskier bet, is now an exciting opportunity due to adjusted interest rates and surplus supply. Doug dives deep into the intricacies of institutional single-family home investing, sharing insights on why market fundamentals—like housing demand and supply shortages—make single-family rentals a savvy choice. Curious about where savvy investors are putting their capital? Tune in to discover how you can leverage these market shifts to enhance your real estate strategy.
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
Property Manager Finder
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Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-368
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Are you ready to navigate this real estate market correction? While some experts argue whether we're in a crash or a correction, our hosts explore practical strategies to adapt and thrive. Discover how you can make profitable decisions during these times of stagnant or slightly declining housing prices. With insights from real estate pros Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington, learn how they are adjusting their investing strategies to cope with changing interest rates and housing prices. Whether you're recalibrating expectations or exploring opportunities in less conventional markets, this episode offers valuable perspectives to help you ride out the correction and capitalize on long-term wealth building. Tune in to equip yourself with frameworks that withstand the test of fluctuating mortgage and interest rates!
Links from the Show
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Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
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Feeling anxious about the housing market? You're not alone. Recent data show that U.S. cancellation rates for property deals have reached a record high this year, with buyers taking advantage of more moderate conditions to re-evaluate their options. With a projected 10-year increase in housing prices by about 23.5%, experts suggest we may finally be heading towards a more stable market environment, where traditional investment strategies like securing great assets at fair prices could truly shine. Curious about how real estate fraud could impact investors as the market evolves? We’ll also explore rising cases of fraud and the steps you can take to protect yourself. Dive into this episode as we unravel the complexities of short-term housing trends and long-term predictions, while maintaining a proactive approach to safeguarding your investments.
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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James' BiggerPockets Profile
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The headlines say “slowdown,” but let’s call it what it is: a housing correction. Prices (in real terms) are slipping, days-on-market is stretching, and cooling is broadening across regions and price tiers. What does that actually mean for buyers, sellers, and investors and how is a correction different from a crash? We unpack the data, define the terms, and show you how to play offense without taking on unnecessary risk.
We break down nominal vs. real prices (and why inflation math matters), why widespread cooling doesn’t equal panic, and the key forces restoring affordability: rates, wages, and prices. Plus, how long a typical correction lasts, why “forced selling” is the real crash trigger (and why we’re not there), and what to do if your on-paper values dip.
Finally, we get tactical: tightening your buy box, underwriting with flat rents and conservative appreciation, negotiating in a slower market, and deciding when to hold vs. sell, so you’re positioned for the next expansion, not paralyzed by the current stall.
In This Episode We Cover
Correction vs. crash: clear definitions, real-world thresholds, and why speed + depth matter
Nominal vs. real prices: how inflation turns “up 2%” into a true decline
The cooling map: regions and price tiers that are slipping and which are merely slowing
Why inventory is rising (but not flooding) and why low delinquencies keep this a correction
How long corrections typically last and what could shorten or extend this one
Playbook for 2025–26: precise buy boxes, conservative underwriting, better negotiations, and handling “paper losses” without panicking
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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The market is sending mixed signals, so what does that mean for buyers and sellers right now? Prices are cooling toward neutral, new listings are finally creeping up, pending sales just slipped, and days on market are the longest since 2019. We sort through the latest data so you can read your local market with clear eyes.
A government shutdown is already touching housing. With the National Flood Insurance Program paused, some coastal and riverine deals are stalling as buyers struggle to bind coverage. We explain one potential workaround by assigning an existing policy, plus how many closings could be delayed if the lapse drags on.
Zooming out, we track fresh signs of consumer strain. Subprime auto delinquencies are at a record, average car payments now top 750 dollars a month, and sentiment has split sharply between households with big stock portfolios and those without. Several states are flirting with recession risk, which could tug mortgage rates lower, while sticky inflation could keep them pinned.
In This Episode We Cover
Cooling home prices, rising days on market, and what a near-flat Case-Shiller trend means for offers and list strategy
The shutdown’s housing ripple effects, including the flood insurance lapse and an assignment tactic that may keep deals alive
Why pending sales dipped even as new listings rose, and how to negotiate in a thinner buyer pool
Auto loan stress, four-figure car payments, and what these budget pressures mean for future housing demand
A tale of two consumers, plus a state-by-state look at recession risk and how that feeds into mortgage rates
Action steps for buyers, sellers, and investors in a market that is cooling, not crashing
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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We can definitively say it now: the buyer’s market is here.
The housing market is cooling down, but the deals are heating up as a “mild” correction slows down hot markets and gives buyers even more power in cold ones. With it comes buying opportunities—ones that real estate investors have been starved of over the past few years. You can negotiate for more, offer less, and lock in a lower mortgage rate than last year.
The question is: will this correction turn into a full-blown housing crash? Dave’s giving you his honest (and data-backed) opinion in this September 2025 housing market update!
Mortgage delinquencies are rising rapidly in one subset of the market, the crash-bro clickbaiters say it’s a sign of a coming housing apocalypse—are they finally right about something? One thing is certain: a few housing markets across the US are in danger of slipping into an even more oversupplied market. But, with new data showing that sellers are quitting and walking away, will this reverse the worrying trend?
Stick around, we’ve got your housing market update without the hype.
In This Episode We Cover
The “mild” housing market correction: what it means and whether it’ll become a crash
Updated home price predictions and how much prices will rise/fall by the end of the year
Signs that you can start confidently bidding under asking price (but by how much?)
Why inventory is beginning to reverse (have sellers finally had enough?)
Mortgage delinquencies are rising: who’s affected and could it lead to foreclosures?
What investors should do now to prepare to buy discounted deals (be patient!)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Sign Up for the BiggerPockets Real Estate Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
BiggerPockets Real Estate 118 - Data Says It’s a Buyer’s Market: Here’s Where the Most Opportunity Is
Grab Dave’s Book, "Start with Strategy"
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What are the repercussions of October 1st on the housing market? Dive into the recent shifts that may impact real estate investing and the broader housing market landscape. With the imposition of new tariffs on construction materials, stirring concerns about rising costs, alongside a federal government shutdown complicating the economic outlook, how will these factors play out in the current market scene? Explore the nuances of how these events intersect with flood insurance policy lapses and the phasing out of COVID-era FHA loan modifications. Each of these elements could influence mortgage rates and housing affordability, shaping investor strategies moving forward.
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Is the new construction market the golden ticket for real estate investors in 2025? With newly built homes now cheaper than existing ones, thanks to regional pricing differences, builders' incentives, and a desire to move inventory quickly, this could be an unexpected opportunity for savvy investors. In this episode, Dave Meyer explores why new construction is suddenly appealing, how mortgage rates and home prices are shaping this trend, and what investors need to consider when diving into this market. Are you ready to explore the potential in this unique turn of events in the housing market?
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Is a recession really coming, or is this the new normal for the housing market? Dave Meyer and J Scott unpack how post-2008 shifts, record debt and money printing, tariffs, and AI are changing the rules, then connect inflation and the labor market to mortgage rates and interest rates so you can gauge what moves them next. You will get a risk-off playbook for today’s deals, including conservative underwriting, assuming flatter rents and higher vacancy, buying at today’s rates, and favoring fixed-rate debt, plus why single-family housing prices are usually resilient outside of severe shocks. Their housing market prediction and forecast: expect mostly stable home prices with modest moves while mortgage rates hover near current levels, with bigger swings only if jobs crack hard or inflation reaccelerates.
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-360
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Fed cut rates for the first time in nine months, yet mortgage rates climbed again, so Dave breaks down why and what happens next for the housing market. He explains that the Fed funds rate mainly moves short-term interest rates, while long-term lending tracks the 10-year Treasury and risk spreads, with inflation risk keeping mortgage rates stubborn. His housing market prediction and forecast: expect mortgage rates to hover in the low to mid sixes through 2025, meaning tight affordability and mostly stable home prices, while commercial real estate could benefit more due to shorter-term debt structures. Takeaways for investors include underwriting deals at today’s rates, tracking inflation and labor data, and preparing for steady transaction gains rather than a rapid drop in interest rates or a surge in housing prices.
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-359
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Fed rate drop, refinance rush, and a land price reset: what does it mean for the housing market now. Henry Washington, Kathy, and James explain why refinance applications jumped roughly 30 percent after 30-year mortgage rates slipped near 6.39 percent, how today’s ARMs actually work, and why locking a refi now can beat waiting for future interest rates to fall. They outline a practical housing market prediction and forecast, expecting more transactions rather than a surge in home prices or housing prices, plus timing tips for listing into the spring when buyer activity historically rises. You will also get a reality check on the “great wealth transfer” and reverse mortgages, along with a land strategy playbook for a potential price decline, from targeting big-lot houses and infill splits to using seller financing to create equity and cash flow.
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
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Is the labor market finally cracking, and what does that mean for the housing market? Dave Meyer distills the latest BLS and ADP payrolls, JOLTS, and unemployment data, from August’s 22,000 nonfarm payroll gain and a 4.3% jobless rate to a 900,000 downward revision and a spike in initial claims, to show a clear cooling trend. He explains why a softer labor market raises the odds of Fed cuts yet inflation keeps pressure on interest rates, so mortgage rates may ease only modestly, boosting transaction volume more than home prices or housing prices. You will hear practical plays for real estate investors, including watching local job numbers, prioritizing tenant retention and collections, and considering refinances if you hold 7 to 8 percent loans, plus how markets like Las Vegas and San Francisco may diverge. Dave’s housing market prediction and forecast: a soft but functioning market with cautious upside, where housing prices stabilize and conservative underwriting wins until clearer trends emerge.
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Is this a housing market correction or a crash? Dave Meyer and ICE’s Andy Walden unpack the Mortgage Monitor: nominal home prices are up about 1.1% year over year, but real housing prices are negative; sellers are stepping back, inventory gains are cooling, and demand still tracks mortgage rates and interest rates, which points to a soft but functioning housing market. You’ll hear the regional story in Denver, Florida, and Texas, why FHA delinquencies are inching up while 2020 to 2021 loans perform well, and how soaring property insurance is squeezing affordability and debt to income ratios. Plus, a housing market prediction/forecast: if mortgage rates land in the low sixes (around 6.25% by year end), expect firmer home prices rather than a COVID era surge.
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Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
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Will the housing market surge for the next 25 years, or is the silver tsunami overblown? In this episode, the hosts of "On The Market" delve into the potential impacts of an $84 trillion wealth transfer on the real estate landscape. As millennials stand to inherit significant sums, will this money flow into real estate, and could it shake up the housing market? As they explore these trends, they also weigh in on the ongoing debate: will aging boomers lead to a market crash or a boom? Tune in to find out how interest rates, mortgage rates, and housing prices may evolve in the coming years.
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Are current market conditions making real estate a risky investment? This episode of "On the Market" with Dave Meyer dives into the recent warnings from the investment icon Ray Dalio, who advises against real estate investments due to factors like interest rate sensitivity, ease of taxation, and illiquidity. Meyer explores the potential implications for real estate investors and unpacks Dalio's unique perspective on the national debt and long-term debt cycles. How might these economic factors shape the housing market and mortgage rates in the coming months, and should real estate still be considered a stable asset amidst uncertainty? Discover the nuances of hedging risks and positioning your portfolio to weather potential economic storms.
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Are you worried that real estate investors are skewing the housing market? In this episode of On the Market, host Dave Meyer and guest expert Rick Sharga dive into the complexities behind investor activities in the housing realm. Discover how investor behavior has shaped the current market landscape, influencing housing prices and inventory. Contrary to some beliefs, small investors play a critical role by fueling market liquidity rather than causing housing prices to spike. Listen in as they unravel how mortgage rates, housing market forecasts, and affordability trends will unfold over the next couple of years. As we tread through this transitional period, the housing market could remain lukewarm for a while longer. Are we on the verge of a 'great stall' or just a balanced market correction? Tune in to find out!
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Great episode!
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love the show and content but just can deal with how condescending Mrs Fetke continually is. She is so smart and we're all just dummies, pitty but adios.
what a bunch of amateurs (2nd half).