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On The Market
On The Market
Author: BiggerPockets
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Stay informed so you can invest with confidence. Join Dave Meyer, James Dainard, Kathy Fettke and Henry Washington for analysis of the news and economics driving today’s real estate market.
463 Episodes
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The U.S. government may have just lost the war on mortgage rates.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced one of its biggest bond buyback programs in years—a whopping $6 billion allocated to (hopefully) lower bond yields, and by proxy, interest rates. Not only did it backfire, but it may have angered the bond investors so much that the market’s recovery is now in jeopardy. Do we still have any hope of lowering bond yields and mortgage rates so the housing market can get back in business?
Today, we’re breaking down the good, the bad, and the ugly buybacks of the bond market, how this will affect your mortgage rates over the next year, and what can be done to spur confidence in bond yields (and the U.S. government). Dave even gives his mortgage rate prediction for 2027, with a range of where we could end up by this time next year.
If rates stay high and housing demand gets even more subdued, the buying opportunities, price cuts, and seller concessions could only increase. Are you going to take advantage?
In This Episode We Cover
A full update on the bond market and how the U.S. government is trying to save yields
Dave’s 2027 mortgage rate prediction and whether we could go even higher than we are now
The failed bond “buyback” strategy that could take a long time to recover from
Three reasons why bond yields (and mortgage rates) are surging right now
How the Fed raising rates could actually lower your mortgage rate in the future
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
On The Market 436 - The Fed Signals a Reversal in Rates
Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-461.
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The rules of real estate investing have changed.
For years, investors were using the one-percent rule to quickly determine if a real estate deal would cash flow. But the one-percent rule, rent-to-price ratio, and other common rules of thumb have a glaring blind spot. They account for purchase price, but they don’t account for expenses.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance have all risen across the board—expenses that can easily kill your cash flow.
So, Dave’s come up with a new rule of thumb you can use to quickly analyze rental properties and markets. He’s calling it the rent-to-payment ratio. By comparing estimated rents to the estimated PITI payment itself, you’ll have a much better idea of whether a rental property will actually cash flow month to month.
And today, we’re not just breaking down how the formula works. Dave also built an entire spreadsheet that ranks U.S. real estate markets by their rent-to-payment ratios. Whether you’re looking for the best cash flow markets to invest in or a quick way to weed out unprofitable properties, this is the kind of math you need to make sharper investing decisions in 2026.
In This Episode We Cover
The “new” rule of thumb for finding great real estate deals and rental markets
Why rent-to-price ratio is a flawed metric (and which ratio to use instead)
Why the popular one-percent rule no longer works in 2026
The top 10 real estate markets with the highest rent-to-payment ratios
How to bake today’s mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance into your initial analysis
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
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Dave's BiggerPockets Profile
BiggerPockets Calculators
The Summer 2026 Rent-to-Payment Report: Where You Can Still Cash Flow with Real Estate
Grab Dave’s book, Real Estate by the Numbers
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-460.
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Are the price cuts deeper than you think? Do buyers have even more power than we’ve been led to believe?
National housing data tells us one thing, but local-level expertise can paint a completely different picture. While national data points to marginal price cuts, brokers in major markets are seeing significantly more volatile numbers. We wanted to know what’s actually happening in big markets like Austin, Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa, Long Island, and beyond—so we called the actual brokers who do business there and got them on the show.
Today, we’re talking with Justin Hroch, Micah Mortag, and William ODonnell, brokers in the South, Southeast, and Northeast doing real deals for buyers, sellers, and investors. It’s no surprise that areas like the South are struggling, but how is (very expensive) New York faring with a changing political landscape and so many more regulations?
We’re getting into how long homes are sitting on the market, how much power buyers and sellers have, the price cuts you can anticipate, and what to look at before you buy a property in any of these markets.
In This Episode We Cover
Areas of the country seeing the biggest price cuts or bidding wars
What type of properties are selling fast even in slow markets like the South
The cities being buried in inventory where sellers are taking big haircuts on price
One market seeing strong appreciation, even in 2026 (we’re talking 8% price jumps!)
The “sweet spot” properties you can find in each of these areas to make a profit (regardless of how the market moves)
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
On The Market 450 - A Buyer’s Summer Is “On” as Asking Prices See Steepest Decline Since 2017
Justin's BiggerPockets Profile
Micah's BiggerPockets Profile
William's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Realtor August Housing Report
Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-459.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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The housing market is sending mixed signals—or so it seems. Foreclosures are rising, yet many investors are pulling back. Cash buyers are retreating, competition is cooling in many markets, and affordability challenges appear to be catching up with investors. Are these signs of another 2008-like collapse, or is there context behind the numbers?
This week’s headlines largely point to waning investor activity. Investor home purchases are down, and the share of cash buyers is decreasing. Meanwhile, foreclosures are returning to levels we haven’t seen in several years.
But when you dig beneath the surface, nothing is as dire as it appears. Pent-up foreclosure starts are still well below historical norms. And while the market continues to cool in many areas, it’s creating rare opportunities and negotiation power for investors who are willing to go against the grain.
So where are these opportunities hiding, what secret “edge” do mom-and-pop investors have that others overlook, and how do you ensure today’s deals don’t become tomorrow’s disasters? We’re breaking it all down on today’s show.
In This Episode We Cover
How small investors can gain an edge in the current housing market
Why rising foreclosures aren’t the “warning sign” most think it is
New investing opportunities coming from decreased competition
Why many investors are leaving the housing market in 2026
How affordability challenges and regulatory risks are affecting investors
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
ATTOM: Foreclosure Activity Posts Annual Increase in First Half of 2026
Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020
CNBC: Cash Is No Longer King in Home Sales
Mortgage Defaults and Foreclosures Are Surging in Key Markets: What Investors Need to Know
Henry's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-458.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
AI is bringing 6,000 jobs to a small Texan town, and home prices are seeing a sizable jump…but what happens once the job is done? Is this just a mini housing bubble waiting to happen, or is buying near an AI boomtown actually worth the risk? These scenarios may begin popping up more and more—what happens when it’s in your neck of the woods?
We’re back with more headlines on what’s affecting the housing market. AI-induced housing bubbles could be coming in hot as small, overlooked areas of the U.S. turn to boomtowns with more jobs and more housing demand (at least temporarily). If you are going to buy in or around one of these cities, this is what to buy so you don’t get burnt once the construction workers leave.
Fresh distress hits real estate as the “maturity wall” grows even taller. Multifamily delinquencies are up 600% from just a few years ago, and office space is struggling even with so many return-to-office announcements over the past two years. And it’s not just commercial real estate. Flippers are stuck with listings getting stale, with some 2/3 of house flippers seeing longer days on market. How do Henry and James, our house flipping experts, avoid holding a hefty hard money loan while waiting for a property to sell?
In This Episode We Cover
New AI boomtowns forming in small investing markets (and whether you should buy)
Why big properties, even though distressed, may not all fall to foreclosure any time soon
What to buy if you’re investing near a newly approved data center
Why not buying right now could be a huge mistake (even as investors struggle)
The one thing James asks from his lender to save him serious cash when a property won’t sell
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join BiggerPockets for FREE
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the Investor Brief Newsletter
Find Investor-Friendly Lenders
“The Largest Infrastructure Buildout in Human History” Could Be a Massive Opportunity For Real Estate Investors
Henry's BiggerPockets Profile
James' BiggerPockets Profile
Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile
Texas Standard: Data center construction spurring a housing crisis in Abilene
CRED IQ: Property Types Feeling the August Heat
HousingWire: Fix-and-flip market shows signs of strain as mortgage rates climb
Grab James’s Book, The House Flipping Framework
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-457.
Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected].
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